Libya - civil unrest & now NATO involvement

[littlebabyjesus]

I don't know what you are good at, but please steer clear of history and politics as you are clueless in the extreme. Never heard of unintended consequences?

Permanent warfare and chaos in Iraq and Afghanistan were perfectly predictable. Lots of people opposed the invasions precisely because they feared that would be the result, plus of course for a whole host of other reasons. I know I did.

 

[Spion]

Heh. I lifted the sentence you quote directly from Immanuel Wallerstein.

If you've heard of him, I think you'll agree that he knows something of history and politics.

And so you now look silly.

You're mental

 

[littlebabyjesus]

You're mental

Let's stick to Iraq. Before the invasion, you couldn't see that a likely result of such action was civil war?

 

[Spion]

Permanent warfare and chaos in Iraq and Afghanistan were perfectly predictable. Lots of people opposed the invasions precisely because they feared that would be the result, plus of course for a whole host of other reasons. I know I did.

Sure they were predictable. Doesn't mean to say that was the intention of those involved in bringing those events about.

Anyway, I'm still waiting for evidence that PNAC intended 'a state of permanent war and chaos' in the places it slated for change

 

[phildwyer]

Permanent warfare and chaos in Iraq and Afghanistan were perfectly predictable.

As indeed they are in Libya.

 

[phildwyer]

Sure they were predictable. Doesn't mean to say that was the intention of those involved in bringing those events about.

You believe the USA, UK and Israel are controlled by stupid people? People so stupid that they could not foresee the obvious consequences of their actions? Consequences which were foreseen by just about everyone else in the world?

If so, it is you who are stupid.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Sure they were predictable. Doesn't mean to say that was the intention of those involved in bringing those events about.

Really? What was their intention, then? And what advice were they receiving? You call dwyer mental, yet you seem to believe that the people who organised the invasions were even less well informed than, for instance, me about the likely consequences of their actions. You sure you haven't unwittingly fallen for their propaganda?

 

[phildwyer]

Really? What was their intention, then? And what advice were they receiving? You call dwyer mental, yet you seem to believe that the people who organised the invasions were even less well informed than, for instance, me about the likely consequences of their actions. You sure you haven't unwittingly fallen for their propaganda?

Of course he has. But let's not be too hard on him. Propaganda works, and it works on intelligent people quite as well as on the stupid.

It works because, among other reasons, it does contain some truth. It is true that Colonel Gaddafi is a homicidal madman. So it is almost plausible, even to fairly well-educated people, that the West is acting altruistically to save the Libyan people from him.

The problem with people like Spion is their inability to think too badly of their government. They cannot quite bring themselves to believe that those who claim to act in their name are villains and criminals. Everyone tends to identify with their national state to some extent, usually subconsciously, so it's a traumatic thing to accept. But accept it we must.

 

[Random]

The problem with people like Spion is their inability to think too badly of their government. They cannot quite bring themselves to believe that those who claim to act in their name are villains and criminals. Everyone tends to identify with their national state to some extent, usually subconsciously, so it's a traumatic thing to accept. But accept it we must.

You're overplaying your hand here, player man.

 

[Lock&Light]

The problem with people like Spion is their inability to think too badly of their government. They cannot quite bring themselves to believe that those who claim to act in their name are villains and criminals. Everyone tends to identify with their national state to some extent, usually subconsciously, so it's a traumatic thing to accept. But accept it we must.

I most certainly do not share your view.

 

[Random]

Really? What was their intention, then? And what advice were they receiving? You call dwyer mental, yet you seem to believe that the people who organised the invasions were even less well informed than, for instance, me about the likely consequences of their actions. You sure you haven't unwittingly fallen for their propaganda?

The propaganda that says "we're shit"? The Iraq occupation was an attempt to engineer a pro-US state run on neo-liberal principles. It failed. For one thing, the current Iraqi government and parliament is stuffed full of allies of Iran. Was that an intended consequence?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The propaganda that says "we're shit"?

Basically, yes. The propaganda that says that nobody thought about what would happen after the invasion. Something which the likes of Blair now claim to 'regret'.

 

[weltweit]

The option in Libya was permit Gaddafi to do slaughter in Banghazi or prevent him. It has nothing imho to do with divide and conquer. I think all parties to the UN resolution are concerned about the end game in Libya most of the involved parties because the no-fly zone is costing them millions to enforce.

 

[Random]

Basically, yes. The propaganda that says that nobody thought about what would happen after the invasion. Something which the likes of Blair now claim to 'regret'.

Who's saying they didn't think?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Who's saying they didn't think?

Lots of people. Various ex-labour ministers who supported the war, for instance. Those supporters of the war for whom it most serves to take that line now, basically.

 

[Random]

Lots of people. Various ex-labour ministers who supported the war, for instance. Those supporters of the war for whom it most serves to take that line now, basically.

But not spion or myself.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

But not spion or myself.

Spion is saying something like that by saying that he thinks the instability that has resulted from the invasions is an unintended consequence from the point of view of those that planned the invasion. That's why I asked him to consider whether or not he has fallen for the propaganda.

 

[Random]

Spion is saying something like that by saying that he thinks the instability that has resulted from the invasions is an unintended consequence from the point of view of those that planned the invasion. That's why I asked him to consider whether or not he has fallen for the propaganda.

Neither of us has said there was no plan, though. I don't want to talk for him, but I certainly have my own analysis of what their intentions were, and why they failed. Which is why cheap jibes about 'falling for TV propaganda' are a bit lame and lower the quality of the debate. Phil is just piss taking but I assume you're serious.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'm genuinely not trying to have a go or score points. But if anyone thinks the chaos that has followed the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan are unintended consequences, I think they are very clearly wrong. They have believed something they should not have believed.

 

[weltweit]

I'm genuinely not trying to have a go or score points. But if anyone thinks the chaos that has followed the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan are unintended consequences, I think they are very clearly wrong. They have believed something they should not have believed.

I believe they are unintended consequences.

For a start, if they were intended, the US could have pulled its forces out a long time ago, the instability was already there enough and thus according to your thesis it was already job done!

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I believe they are unintended consequences.

For a start, if they were intended, the US could have pulled its forces out a long time ago, the instability was already there enough and thus according to your thesis it was already job done!

Well no. The instability is justification for a permanent US military presence.

 

[Spion]

Spion is saying something like that by saying that he thinks the instability that has resulted from the invasions is an unintended consequence from the point of view of those that planned the invasion.

This discussion started as a result of Phil saying that 'permanent warfare and chaos' is the aim of the west/Israel in thse countries. I think that's utter bollocks. I do think that if that is the result of these invasions it is an unintended consequence, tho some short to medium-term instability would be expected by policymakers.

Anyway, I'm still waiting to see Wolfowitz et al's public declaration that 'permanent war and chaos' is the aim in the states they want to take down. Personally I find it utterly implausible from the point of view of the US ruling class as you don't extract wealth easily when you can't drill, dig whatever without your people being threatened daily by violence. There may be some in Israel that want such a goal, but that runs counter to the above.

 

[Random]

I'm genuinely not trying to have a go or score points. But if anyone thinks the chaos that has followed the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan are unintended consequences, I think they are very clearly wrong. They have believed something they should not have believed.

What about my earlier point, about how Iraq has moved from being a deadly enemy of Iran, to being a clos ally? Is that another intended consequence?

 

[Spion]

The problem with people like Spion is their inability to think too badly of their government. They cannot quite bring themselves to believe that those who claim to act in their name are villains and criminals. Everyone tends to identify with their national state to some extent, usually subconsciously, so it's a traumatic thing to accept. But accept it we must.

You don't half talk some utter bollocks

 

[weltweit]

Well no. The instability is justification for a permanent US military presence.

Do you think the parents of the 4,441 US servicemen killed in Iraq since 2003 (and 179 British servicemen and women) know of this policy?

And why if it is the powers that be's strategy to stay and establish bases, have Britain left Iraq? if such a plan was good for the USA, surely it would also be good for Britain.

I don't buy the invasion of Afghanistan being as part of some complex conspiracy, it was a reaction to 9/11 and thus could not have been planned.

The invasion of Iraq is more debateable, not coming from a trauma like Afghanistan did.

 

[Spion]

Spion is saying something like that by saying that he thinks the instability that has resulted from the invasions is an unintended consequence from the point of view of those that planned the invasion.

I don't think the necocons et al understand the societies which they have affected so much by invading. The likes of Saddam are a consequence of the specific way in which the classes have formed in Iraq. I don't think they have the mental tools to understand that, and that Iraq is likely to revert to a similar political structure in years to come when the US prop is withdrawn. Similarly with Libya

 

[Random]

And why if it is the powers that be's strategy to stay and establish bases, have Britain left Iraq? if such a plan was good for the USA, surely it would also be good for Britain.

There's a division of labour between the two. The US being there is precisely why there's no need for the UK to have bases there, just like there's no US base on Cyprus.

 

[weltweit]

that Iraq is likely to revert to a similar political structure in years to come when the US prop is withdrawn. Similarly with Libya

Are you saying libya is incapable of democracy?

 

[Spion]

Are you saying libya is incapable of democracy?

I'm saying it is incapable of capitalist democracy, the type we have, because it doesn't have a stable capitalist class. Instead it has pyramids of patronage which are based on oil revenues, essentially what we would call corruption. I do think it's capable of more radical forms of democracy, however.

 

[weltweit]

Libya: first female British Typhoon pilot in action
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...t-female-British-Typhoon-pilot-in-action.html