Cid
Proper break this time
"More trusted," eh? "Misinformation," huh?
See also Jon Ashworth dropping similar shit on Newsnight:
"More trusted," eh? "Misinformation," huh?
See also Jon Ashworth dropping similar shit on Newsnight:
in what way is it not a boon? it's not good, giving refugees their own homes would be better, but it seems to meet the dictionary definition of a benefit or favour.TBF...he isn't saying they are going to be sending Afghans back...
Ended up in hotel in my late parents constituency a few times last couple of years...had Afghans stuck there at least 3 years most of them with kids. Ashworth seems to think hotel life is a boon...its not
TBF...he isn't saying they are going to be sending Afghans back...
Ended up in hotel in my late parents constituency a few times last couple of years...had Afghans stuck there at least 3 years most of them with kids. Ashworth seems to think hotel life is a boon...its not
"Which party would you vote for?" is a biasing question. Sample size would need to be well over 1000 for it to have any validity. Not buying it as it conflicts VERY much with the doorstep responses. Especially as only :Labour, Reform and Andrew are doing any serious campaigning. It's still going to be hard to get people to step away from the medis presentation of a presidential style election between Sunak and Starmer, but no way is that Survation poll a reflection of anything resembling reality.
That is exactly who Starmer is. A character created with the CGI used for Max Headroom, speaking words created by Chat GPT trained on last week's issue of the Daily Mail. Prove me wrong.
I live in the constituency. I've had flyers from Feinstein (twice) and the LibDems, and that's it."Which party would you vote for?" is a biasing question. Sample size would need to be well over 1000 for it to have any validity. Not buying it as it conflicts VERY much with the doorstep responses. Especially as only :Labour, Reform and Andrew are doing any serious campaigning. It's still going to be hard to get people to step away from the medis presentation of a presidential style election between Sunak and Starmer, but no way is that Survation poll a reflection of anything resembling reality.
fucking nonsense. 100 would be perfectly sufficient, 200 if you wanted to catch a general approximation for parties who are going to get below 10%. But who really cares about them?"Which party would you vote for?" is a biasing question. Sample size would need to be well over 1000 for it to have any validity. Not buying it as it conflicts VERY much with the doorstep responses. Especially as only :Labour, Reform and Andrew are doing any serious campaigning. It's still going to be hard to get people to step away from the medis presentation of a presidential style election between Sunak and Starmer, but no way is that Survation poll a reflection of anything resembling reality.
No CGI was used.That is exactly who Starmer is. A character created with the CGI used for Max Headroom, speaking words created by Chat GPT trained on last week's issue of the Daily Mail. Prove me wrong.
I live in the constituency. I've had flyers from Feinstein (twice) and the LibDems, and that's it.
It's normal here for there to be next to no campaigning, but not a peep from Labour as yet.
more and more like starmer thenNo CGI was used.
Max Headroom was Matt Frewer in heavy makeup and a plastic suit under weird lighting.
The Greens won't be unless you are in Kentish Town North, they are concentrating on Lorna Russell's campaign in Hampstead and Highgate. I think the Tories are in panic mode tying to find some seats they can actually defend.I live in the constituency. I've had flyers from Feinstein (twice) and the LibDems, and that's it.
It's normal here for there to be next to no campaigning, but not a peep from Labour as yet.
"More trusted," eh? "Misinformation," huh?
For a political opinion poll to be even remotely valid for a population of 100,000 you need well over 1,000 responses to even have a chance of covering all of the subgroups. Ok you might get a decent idea of whether your new ice cream flavour would sell from a sample of 500 people. It is eff all use for election polling even at constituency level and likely to be way off the mark in a demographically diverse area. I don't even trust canvas returns until at least 20% of constituents have responded.fucking nonsense. 100 would be perfectly sufficient, 200 if you wanted to catch a general approximation for parties who are going to get below 10%. But who really cares about them?
Yep, standard quality polling usually goes for 1000. Anything less is typically suspect.."Which party would you vote for?" is a biasing question. Sample size would need to be well over 1000 for it to have any validity. Not buying it as it conflicts VERY much with the doorstep responses. Especially as only :Labour, Reform and Andrew are doing any serious campaigning. It's still going to be hard to get people to step away from the medis presentation of a presidential style election between Sunak and Starmer, but no way is that Survation poll a reflection of anything resembling reality.
Exactly.For a political opinion poll to be even remotely valid for a population of 100,000 you need well over 1,000 responses to even have a chance of covering all of the subgroups. Ok you might get a decent idea of whether your new ice cream flavour would sell from a sample of 500 people. It is eff all use for election polling even at constituency level and likely to be way off the mark in a demographically diverse area. I don't even trust canvas returns until at least 20% of constituents have responded.
Clueless about quality data, clueless about the effect of quality data...fucking nonsense. 100 would be perfectly sufficient, 200 if you wanted to catch a general approximation for parties who are going to get below 10%. But who really cares about them?
That is just absolute bullshit. No one cares about the subgroup splits, whether it's 6 or 8% of single black women who are going to vote for....whoever. All you need is a topline figure. For which 100 is plenty.For a political opinion poll to be even remotely valid for a population of 100,000 you need well over 1,000 responses to even have a chance of covering all of the subgroups. Ok you might get a decent idea of whether your new ice cream flavour would sell from a sample of 500 people. It is eff all use for election polling even at constituency level and likely to be way off the mark in a demographically diverse area. I don't even trust canvas returns until at least 20% of constituents have responded.
The big problem they have is that Starmer can't deviate from the national campaign which is aimed at a demographic who barely exist in his own constituency. The Starmerite base isn't that large. he's been ticking off large quantities of his natural support ever since he became the MP. I've met one person on the street who actually overtly expressed support for Starmer, and 3 on the doorstep who were still considering voting for him. Mostly it's been about explaining that in local terms it's Starmer versus the Lib Dems or Andrew Feinstein. Nobody else is even trying.Given the strength of the labour base there, particularly the Starmerish labour base, presumably they're just not that worried/focussing on other areas. Hopping on the C11, or taking the tube to Archway I imagine.
Bloody hell. I admire Matt Frewer even more as an actor now.No CGI was used.
Max Headroom was Matt Frewer in heavy makeup and a plastic suit under weird lighting.
It would have been infeasible in 1987.
Canvassing is completely and utterly different to polling though. You dont try to select a representative sample, you just ask whoever you see. And naively trust them. Polling is rather more detailed.For a political opinion poll to be even remotely valid for a population of 100,000 you need well over 1,000 responses to even have a chance of covering all of the subgroups. Ok you might get a decent idea of whether your new ice cream flavour would sell from a sample of 500 people. It is eff all use for election polling even at constituency level and likely to be way off the mark in a demographically diverse area. I don't even trust canvas returns until at least 20% of constituents have responded.
They surveyed over 500 people, giving them 95% certainty that the true value will fall within 4.9% of the poll result.The big problem they have is that Starmer can't deviate from the national campaign which is aimed at a demographic who barely exist in his own constituency. The Starmerite base isn't that large. he's been ticking off large quantities of his natural support ever since he became the MP. I've met one person on the street who actually overtly expressed support for Starmer, and 3 on the doorstep who were still considering voting for him. Mostly it's been about explaining that in local terms it's Starmer versus the Lib Dems or Andrew Feinstein. Nobody else is even trying.
Maybe. It is notoriously hard to poll certain sectors of the population. In this constituency, that's the likes of Bangladeshis and Somalis. Polling areas like Somers Town is tricky.They surveyed over 500 people, giving them 95% certainty that the true value will fall within 4.9% of the poll result.
Telephone poll, so very high quality compared to online polls, which are susceptible to respondent sampling biases.
It's more complex than that. It's a huge difference between the various wards. The politics of Kentish Town, Primrose Hill, and Somers Town are entirely different, and then there's Bloomsbury which is students or Tories. Even within some of the wards there can be a massive variation. We are kind of canvassing, but not really using it to do anything other than the traditional method of finding who is definite to knock up on the day, and bunging a leaflet to anybody undecided. We might have some sort of "picture" we think is in some way reliable after next weekend, but we aren't seeing anything that resembles the Survation poll, and we have already got a far higher sample size over pretty much every part of the constituency. The question is going to be "did we get enough students to register for postal votes by the deadline. It may entirely hang on that.Maybe. It is notoriously hard to poll certain sectors of the population. In this constituency, that's the likes of Bangladeshis and Somalis. Polling areas like Somers Town is tricky.
It won't make a massive amount of difference, but I won't be surprised if Feinstein gets a few more than the polls say. It will be nowhere near enough to win.
See also Jon Ashworth dropping similar shit on Newsnight:
That is exactly who Starmer is. A character created with the CGI used for Max Headroom, speaking words created by Chat GPT trained on last week's issue of the Daily Mail. Prove me wrong.