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Keir Starmer's time is up

gosub said:
TBF...he isn't saying they are going to be sending Afghans back...

Ended up in hotel in my late parents constituency a few times last couple of years...had Afghans stuck there at least 3 years most of them with kids. Ashworth seems to think hotel life is a boon...its not
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in what way is it not a boon? it's not good, giving refugees their own homes would be better, but it seems to meet the dictionary definition of a benefit or favour.
 
gosub said:
TBF...he isn't saying they are going to be sending Afghans back...

Ended up in hotel in my late parents constituency a few times last couple of years...had Afghans stuck there at least 3 years most of them with kids. Ashworth seems to think hotel life is a boon...its not
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Yeah, BBC's emphasis that... To me his evasiveness is just that; they don't really have a coherent policy. The rhetoric around hotels (which, yeah, less 'big flashing incentive', more Kafka) and 'sending them back' is more shocking in that it has clearly just become an assumed baseline within the labour party. And I suppose within centrist/right political circles in general.
 
I think their instincts are to be pretty relaxed about immigration (even if that's on a 'oh we had a great Polish au pair' sort of basis) but their oh so clever (/cowardly) strategy has them chasing right wing votes and trying not to upset the Mail. Which keeps no one happy.
 
strung out said:
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"Which party would you vote for?" is a biasing question. Sample size would need to be well over 1000 for it to have any validity. Not buying it as it conflicts VERY much with the doorstep responses. Especially as only :Labour, Reform and Andrew are doing any serious campaigning. It's still going to be hard to get people to step away from the medis presentation of a presidential style election between Sunak and Starmer, but no way is that Survation poll a reflection of anything resembling reality.
 
Eric Jarvis said:
"Which party would you vote for?" is a biasing question. Sample size would need to be well over 1000 for it to have any validity. Not buying it as it conflicts VERY much with the doorstep responses. Especially as only :Labour, Reform and Andrew are doing any serious campaigning. It's still going to be hard to get people to step away from the medis presentation of a presidential style election between Sunak and Starmer, but no way is that Survation poll a reflection of anything resembling reality.
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I live in the constituency. I've had flyers from Feinstein (twice) and the LibDems, and that's it.

It's normal here for there to be next to no campaigning, but not a peep from Labour as yet.
 
Eric Jarvis said:
"Which party would you vote for?" is a biasing question. Sample size would need to be well over 1000 for it to have any validity. Not buying it as it conflicts VERY much with the doorstep responses. Especially as only :Labour, Reform and Andrew are doing any serious campaigning. It's still going to be hard to get people to step away from the medis presentation of a presidential style election between Sunak and Starmer, but no way is that Survation poll a reflection of anything resembling reality.
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fucking nonsense. 100 would be perfectly sufficient, 200 if you wanted to catch a general approximation for parties who are going to get below 10%. But who really cares about them?
 
littlebabyjesus said:
I live in the constituency. I've had flyers from Feinstein (twice) and the LibDems, and that's it.

It's normal here for there to be next to no campaigning, but not a peep from Labour as yet.
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Given the strength of the labour base there, particularly the Starmerish labour base, presumably they're just not that worried/focussing on other areas. Hopping on the C11, or taking the tube to Archway I imagine.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
I live in the constituency. I've had flyers from Feinstein (twice) and the LibDems, and that's it.

It's normal here for there to be next to no campaigning, but not a peep from Labour as yet.
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The Greens won't be unless you are in Kentish Town North, they are concentrating on Lorna Russell's campaign in Hampstead and Highgate. I think the Tories are in panic mode tying to find some seats they can actually defend.
 
belboid said:
fucking nonsense. 100 would be perfectly sufficient, 200 if you wanted to catch a general approximation for parties who are going to get below 10%. But who really cares about them?
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For a political opinion poll to be even remotely valid for a population of 100,000 you need well over 1,000 responses to even have a chance of covering all of the subgroups. Ok you might get a decent idea of whether your new ice cream flavour would sell from a sample of 500 people. It is eff all use for election polling even at constituency level and likely to be way off the mark in a demographically diverse area. I don't even trust canvas returns until at least 20% of constituents have responded.
 
Eric Jarvis said:
"Which party would you vote for?" is a biasing question. Sample size would need to be well over 1000 for it to have any validity. Not buying it as it conflicts VERY much with the doorstep responses. Especially as only :Labour, Reform and Andrew are doing any serious campaigning. It's still going to be hard to get people to step away from the medis presentation of a presidential style election between Sunak and Starmer, but no way is that Survation poll a reflection of anything resembling reality.
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Yep, standard quality polling usually goes for 1000. Anything less is typically suspect..
 
Eric Jarvis said:
For a political opinion poll to be even remotely valid for a population of 100,000 you need well over 1,000 responses to even have a chance of covering all of the subgroups. Ok you might get a decent idea of whether your new ice cream flavour would sell from a sample of 500 people. It is eff all use for election polling even at constituency level and likely to be way off the mark in a demographically diverse area. I don't even trust canvas returns until at least 20% of constituents have responded.
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Exactly.
 
Eric Jarvis said:
For a political opinion poll to be even remotely valid for a population of 100,000 you need well over 1,000 responses to even have a chance of covering all of the subgroups. Ok you might get a decent idea of whether your new ice cream flavour would sell from a sample of 500 people. It is eff all use for election polling even at constituency level and likely to be way off the mark in a demographically diverse area. I don't even trust canvas returns until at least 20% of constituents have responded.
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That is just absolute bullshit. No one cares about the subgroup splits, whether it's 6 or 8% of single black women who are going to vote for....whoever. All you need is a topline figure. For which 100 is plenty.

We used to have national polls of 1000 people for the entire country, and they were usually pretty bloody close (aah, those simpler days).
 
Cid said:
Given the strength of the labour base there, particularly the Starmerish labour base, presumably they're just not that worried/focussing on other areas. Hopping on the C11, or taking the tube to Archway I imagine.
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The big problem they have is that Starmer can't deviate from the national campaign which is aimed at a demographic who barely exist in his own constituency. The Starmerite base isn't that large. he's been ticking off large quantities of his natural support ever since he became the MP. I've met one person on the street who actually overtly expressed support for Starmer, and 3 on the doorstep who were still considering voting for him. Mostly it's been about explaining that in local terms it's Starmer versus the Lib Dems or Andrew Feinstein. Nobody else is even trying.
 
Eric Jarvis said:
For a political opinion poll to be even remotely valid for a population of 100,000 you need well over 1,000 responses to even have a chance of covering all of the subgroups. Ok you might get a decent idea of whether your new ice cream flavour would sell from a sample of 500 people. It is eff all use for election polling even at constituency level and likely to be way off the mark in a demographically diverse area. I don't even trust canvas returns until at least 20% of constituents have responded.
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Canvassing is completely and utterly different to polling though. You dont try to select a representative sample, you just ask whoever you see. And naively trust them. Polling is rather more detailed.

For 100,000 you need under 100 for a10% margin of error (probably enough in this scenario), or 380 for 5% (definitely enough). If you want to know whether a candidate is likely tov get 5% or 6% you'd need about 5000. But you dont need to know that.
 
Eric Jarvis said:
The big problem they have is that Starmer can't deviate from the national campaign which is aimed at a demographic who barely exist in his own constituency. The Starmerite base isn't that large. he's been ticking off large quantities of his natural support ever since he became the MP. I've met one person on the street who actually overtly expressed support for Starmer, and 3 on the doorstep who were still considering voting for him. Mostly it's been about explaining that in local terms it's Starmer versus the Lib Dems or Andrew Feinstein. Nobody else is even trying.
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They surveyed over 500 people, giving them 95% certainty that the true value will fall within 4.9% of the poll result.

Telephone poll, so very high quality compared to online polls, which are susceptible to respondent sampling biases.
 
strung out said:
They surveyed over 500 people, giving them 95% certainty that the true value will fall within 4.9% of the poll result.

Telephone poll, so very high quality compared to online polls, which are susceptible to respondent sampling biases.
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Maybe. It is notoriously hard to poll certain sectors of the population. In this constituency, that's the likes of Bangladeshis and Somalis. Polling areas like Somers Town is tricky.

It won't make a massive amount of difference, but I won't be surprised if Feinstein gets a few more than the polls say. It will be nowhere near enough to win.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
Maybe. It is notoriously hard to poll certain sectors of the population. In this constituency, that's the likes of Bangladeshis and Somalis. Polling areas like Somers Town is tricky.

It won't make a massive amount of difference, but I won't be surprised if Feinstein gets a few more than the polls say. It will be nowhere near enough to win.
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It's more complex than that. It's a huge difference between the various wards. The politics of Kentish Town, Primrose Hill, and Somers Town are entirely different, and then there's Bloomsbury which is students or Tories. Even within some of the wards there can be a massive variation. We are kind of canvassing, but not really using it to do anything other than the traditional method of finding who is definite to knock up on the day, and bunging a leaflet to anybody undecided. We might have some sort of "picture" we think is in some way reliable after next weekend, but we aren't seeing anything that resembles the Survation poll, and we have already got a far higher sample size over pretty much every part of the constituency. The question is going to be "did we get enough students to register for postal votes by the deadline. It may entirely hang on that.
 
It's a weird salamander-like constituency. It's a long way from Primrose Hill to Bloomsbury. Reflects the shape of Camden borough, I guess, but yeah, despite being solid Labour probably throughout, it's very different areas.
 
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