Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

[killer b]

I can't see a viable party of the left emerging but Labour are going to lose millions of younger voters to none of the above. Enough to cause them problems in making any electoral headway.

I'll believe that when I see it. Currently it's not showing up in the polls.

 

[Plumdaff]

Not totally convinced; I know trans-Atlantic comparisons really cross-over very well...but...if the early US turnout figures are an accurate barometer, it looks as though the opposition might be able to front up any old shite next time and still garner support (from the young inc.) just on the basis of being 'not Johnson'.

Johnson isn't going to be leading the Tories into the next election though, is he?

 

[brogdale]

Johnson isn't going to be leading the Tories into the next election though, is he?

That may well turn out to be the case, though whoever it is will be leading the Covid/Brexit catastrophe party.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Johnson isn't going to be leading the Tories into the next election though, is he?

No, I don't think he is. I get a feeling that he won't be PM for much longer. The back benches and lucrative employment opportunities are calling.

Covid really took the bounce out of him.

 

[Wilf]

No, I don't think he is. I get a feeling that he won't be PM for much longer. The back benches and lucrative employment opportunities are calling.

Covid really took the bounce out of him.

I'm certain he likes the idea of being PM more than the reality. Having said that, from what you can see he's recovered from covid pretty well, though of course you don't know the deeper effects. I'd actually be surprised if he doesn't lead them into 2025, just on the grounds that PM's rarely give up till they have to. Hard to tell with him though, there's no mission in play, no 'Johnsonian' project, it's all about his self image, power and self interest.

 

[killer b]

The only people predicting an early bath for Johnson are absolute tools, so I'm going to assume he's still going to be leader come the next election, unless 'events'.

 

[Plumdaff]

That may well turn out to be the case, though whoever it is will be leading the Covid/Brexit catastrophe party.

The Tory base don't think covid is a catastrophe, or at least they think no one else would have done better. I think it's very likely he'll carry the can for the chaos of Brexit, although it's pretty possible they base will think that goes OK too. I think if a year or so out from an election it's still ropey he'll be dumped unceremoniously, that's what the Tories do. It's not a case of Johnson deciding to resign. And the Tories are very good at spreading the idea that a change of leadership means they're not responsible for what went before. Look at what this government have done with May.

 

[Raheem]

Think Johnson originally planned to get through the transition period and then declare his work here done. Now, he's probably torn between having a crack at not going down in history as the most twattish prime minister ever and cutting his losses. Think he'll do the second, though.

 

[Plumdaff]

The only people predicting an early bath for Johnson are absolute tools, so I'm going to assume he's still going to be leader come the next election, unless 'events'.

Got my 2021 custom title early then.

 

[Wilf]

The Tory base don't think covid is a catastrophe, or at least they think no one else would have done better. I think it's very likely he'll carry the can for the chaos of Brexit, although it's pretty possible they base will think that goes OK too. I think if a year or so out from an election it's still ropey he'll be dumped unceremoniously, that's what the Tories do. It's not a case of Johnson deciding to resign. And the Tories are very good at spreading the idea that a change of leadership means they're not responsible for what went before. Look at what this government have done with May.

I suspect the economic cost of Covid will be used as cover for the economic cost of Brexit. Also in some ways the last couple of years show how difficult it is for a party to boot out a sitting PM. Theresa May became that liability in 2017 and it took them 2 years to prise her out.

 

[belboid]

The only people predicting an early bath for Johnson are absolute tools, so I'm going to assume he's still going to be leader come the next election, unless 'events'.

Naah, I've seen plenty of sensible people who aren't totally uninformed say so too. Like Paul Mason.

Oh, hang on....

 

[Plumdaff]

I suspect the economic cost of Covid will be used as cover for the economic cost of Brexit. Also in some ways the last couple of years show how difficult it is for a party to boot out a sitting PM. Theresa May became that liability in 2017 and it took them 2 years to prise her out.

Those years were quite a nadir for party unity though, weren't they, I can only think of the Major years although the latter weren't as bad? I also wonder if the fixed term parliament act allows a lame duck PM to hand on in a way that wasn't possible before?

 

[SpookyFrank]

The only people predicting an early bath for Johnson are absolute tools, so I'm going to assume he's still going to be leader come the next election, unless 'events'.

I think 'events' of some description are sufficiently likely as to render your prediction meaningless.

 

[killer b]

like I said.

 

[SpookyFrank]

like I said.

Or will do, unless circumstances intervene.

 

[brogdale]

The Tory base don't think covid is a catastrophe, or at least they think no one else would have done better. I think it's very likely he'll carry the can for the chaos of Brexit, although it's pretty possible they base will think that goes OK too. I think if a year or so out from an election it's still ropey he'll be dumped unceremoniously, that's what the Tories do. It's not a case of Johnson deciding to resign. And the Tories are very good at spreading the idea that a change of leadership means they're not responsible for what went before. Look at what this government have done with May.

Yeah, but I thought we were talking about the "...but Labour are going to lose millions of younger voters to none of the above." bit?

Sure the tory core will convince themselves that Covid went well, they be happy with their 'blue' passport and that the party will dump Johnson when it suits them, but I think the salient point here is that Starmer is betting against all of the kids going off into the electoral wilderness just because he's skewered Corbyn.

By then things are likely to be so bad for the kids that they'll vote for Starmer as they are for Biden.

maybe.

 

[killer b]

Or will do, unless circumstances intervene.

There could always be events to knock literally any prediction off course. Mine is that Johnson won't bow out early because of long covid or because he's bored of it all or because the palimony payments are too much for him to afford on prime ministers wages or whatever other bullshit Westminster gossip is being passed around this week. I'm fairly confident about that. I'm not confident that more material reasons for his removal won't present themselves is all.

 

[ska invita]

so sick of guessing the near future instead of making

 

[Raheem]

so sick of guessing the near future instead of making

...other people do it by not finishing sentences?

 

[Plumdaff]

Yeah, but I thought we were talking about the "...but Labour are going to lose millions of younger voters to none of the above." bit?

Sure the tory core will convince themselves that Covid went well, they be happy with their 'blue' passport and that the party will dump Johnson when it suits them, but I think the salient point here is that Starmer is betting against all of the kids going off into the electoral wilderness just because he's skewered Corbyn.

By then things are likely to be so bad for the kids that they'll vote for Starmer as they are for Biden.

maybe.

Sorry I was distracted by "events"

I don't honestly see the Tories in 2024 as being Trump in 2020. I was thinking of it more like 2015 where, if Starmer continues in the current vein, if you want Tories, you might as well vote for the proper ones. Of course, it's possible that everyone will be so sick of them by then that it's a hold your nose, Macron kind of vote. Even then, it's a very weak kind of support, and I was specificially thinking about the millions of voters New Labour lost over the years - just thinking it might be possible to lose voter share on 2019 and 2017 even before an election if you have nothing to offer them.

Perhaps.

 

[brogdale]

Sorry I was distracted by "events"

I don't honestly see the Tories in 2024 as being Trump in 2020. I was thinking of it more like 2015 where, if Starmer continues in the current vein, if you want Tories, you might as well vote for the proper ones. Of course, it's possible that everyone will be so sick of them by then that it's a hold your nose, Macron kind of vote. Even then, it's a very weak kind of support, and I was specificially thinking about the millions of voters New Labour lost over the years - just thinking it might be possible to lose voter share on 2019 and 2017 even before an election if you have nothing to offer them.

Perhaps.

I expect Starmer's hoping to harvest more of the 'culturally Labour'/1 time tory voters than he loses by being New New Labour

 

[Humberto]

I think Johnson's popularity can only go down when reality comes-a-calling ever more insistently over the next year or so. Could quickly become embattled e.g. seen as massively incompetent. He'll retain a cadre of Tory ultra-Brexiters for sure, but if the calls come for him to resign he will. The guy can't think on his feet. Don't see how he would endure a protracted party rebellion or media hounding. The next year or so will provide (I reckon) plenty of scope for crises, controversies and ammunition for his opponents.

 

[rutabowa]

I thought that because Labour's vote collapsed in Scotland that means they have no chance of winning if they just go back to pre-Corbyn ways?

 

[Pickman's model]

I thought that because Labour's vote collapsed in Scotland that means they have no chance of winning if they just go back to pre-Corbyn ways?

Depends how far back they go

 

[rutabowa]

Depends how far back they go

Tony Blair? Lots of people saying they want to bring back Tony Blair-style. (not me, I won't be voting most probably).

 

[belboid]

I thought that because Labour's vote collapsed in Scotland that means they have no chance of winning if they just go back to pre-Corbyn ways?

I think its only twice in the last fifty years (probably more than that now) that Scotland was essential in delivering a Labour government. Although as one of them was Feb '74 we probably wouldn't have had the October '74 election either. But who knows? may be then we wouldn't have got Thatcher and Labour would have won in '79 and we'd now be living in a socialist paradise.

 

[Pickman's model]

Tony Blair? Lots of people saying they want to bring back Tony Blair-style. (not me, I won't be voting most probably).

Much further back than that

 

[rutabowa]

I think its only twice in the last fifty years (probably more than that now) that Scotland was essential in delivering a Labour government. Although as one of them was Feb '74 we probably wouldn't have had the October '74 election either. But who knows? may be then we wouldn't have got Thatcher and Labour would have won in '79 and we'd now be living in a socialist paradise.

Oh really, I thought it was a big deal. It looks like a big deal when you see the coloured in maps.

 

[Wilf]

Other leaders called Keir are available.

 

[brogdale]

Much further back than that

So retro