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Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

Fair point there is some, hell even Chris Leslie (the slimiest of slimy) got nearly 1500 votes, Corbs will undoubtly do a lot better but to take 15000-16000 (more than half) votes off an official Labour candidate, possible but most unlikely.
He isn't going to get any Tory/Libdem votes not that there a lot in Islington to begin with.
You have that the wrong way around. The problem would be how many of Corbyn's votes the official candidate would get. Not many is the answer.
 
The Labour Party may not have previously suspended an ex-leader but they certainly expelled a current one who was even PM at the time.

But at least when they expelled Ramsay MacDonald it was over acquiescence to vicious cuts to the working class in a time of crisis.

One thing MickiQ said was right. A large number of people do not care about this matter. It doesn't make them anti-semitic. It just makes them more concerned with paying their bills and having a job to do so. Rightly or wrongly they may buy into parliamentary politics as a way to achieve this but for those people their voice is now gone, or at least about to explode spectacularly in an internecine war they haven't picked and have no say in.
 
Personal vote can count for something in fairly specific circumstances - Ken Livingstone is probably the more pertinent example here tbh
 
I don't see the problem here to be honest. Corbyn is and usually has been in the past a fairly harmless backbencher, he wouldn't have been a figure round which the Labour left can rally, he isn't going to pose another leadership threat. But now he's a rallying point. I'm more astonished by the stupidity of Starmer tbh.
Don't you think if left Labourites rally around Corbyn now they might be walking into a trap? The question of whether Corbyn is anti-semitic is not relevant to Starmer et al. The question is whether they can paint the whole of the labour left as anti-semitic so that enough people believe it that they lose all moral authority.
 
Thinking about it although it is move against the left, I don't think it's a strategic move. It's Starmer/his mates on the NEC trying to build up a good reputation with the media (and to a much lesser degree the Jewish community) by declaring as finally and totally as they can that the Corbyn era is over. Which is actual boundless stupidity.
 
Personal vote can count for something in fairly specific circumstances - Ken Livingstone is probably the more pertinent example here tbh
Yes, Livingstone is the obvious example. I may mention Blaenau Gwent in 2005 and the by-election in 2006 as well
 
This isn't happening this time IMO. This will impact on the activist base, but I reckon technocratic centrism is coming back in style with electorates.
Also, the right have seen the Tories win successive elections without an effective activist 'ground-war'. I suspect they see their campaigning being based upon a combination of centrally controlled SM output and winning over some of the billionaire press.
 
overstated i think...people just dont want incompetence in handling covid
lets see how technocratic centrism responds to economic collapse in 2021
I doubt it's going to be a sustained revival. But I also doubt pasofikation is happening to the Labour Party in the immediate future.
 
This isn't happening this time IMO. This will impact on the activist base, but I reckon technocratic centrism is coming back in style with electorates.
This may be true, but I'm not sure the electorate could ever vote to install a man with as high pitched a voice as Starmer as Prime Minister.
 
Without PR there will never be a major split form Labour, 1 or 2 'maverick' MP's maybe but probably not even that. And without the MP's any other split would just be a ragtag collection of a bit of the left.
This is why Labour will never support PR because the minute it arrives they will fall to pieces like that man in Buffy who turned out to be made of worms or something
 
Don't you think if left Labourites rally around Corbyn now they might be walking into a trap? The question of whether Corbyn is anti-semitic is not relevant to Starmer et al. The question is whether they can paint the whole of the labour left as anti-semitic so that enough people believe it that they lose all moral authority.

I'm not sure how it will pan out. The Labour right/media/JLM aren't mobilised on this like they were. And it's a dispute about the extent of anti-Semitism in the LP not whether it exists or whether it's a problem. So it's really a micro question. They aren't on firm ground here at all.
 
Incredible work, thank you!

Anyway, Sir Kieth Starmalot has a silly high pitched voice and is made of worms and that is my final word on the matter
good line to take :D

I'm not sure how it will pan out. The Labour right/media/JLM aren't mobilised on this like they were. And it's a dispute about the extent of anti-Semitism in the LP not whether it exists or whether it's a problem. So it's really a micro question. They aren't on firm ground here at all.
giving it a go
 
This paragraph in Stephen Bush's mailout is pretty on point - and highlights why Labour were always keen to avoid an independent overseer in the first place...

It highlights the political difficulty that the move towards an independent process will have: on the one hand, Keir Starmer needs to demonstrate that change has happened, that his actions match his words and that his promise of 'new leadership' is not just a slogan. On the other hand, the biggest single promise of 'new leadership' is in giving away power and handing the complaints process to an independent overseer. The Campaign Against Antisemitism has already announced that it is submitting complaints against 14 sitting Labour MPs and you would expect that when the new process is in place other organisations will do the same. What happens if an independent process concludes that on the balance of probabilities, some of the 14 MPs should be expelled and some should not? What if the ones to be expelled don't 'seem' to most observers to be the most egregious offenders?
 
This paragraph in Stephen Bush's mailout is pretty on point - and highlights why Labour were always keen to avoid an independent overseer in the first place...

It highlights the political difficulty that the move towards an independent process will have: on the one hand, Keir Starmer needs to demonstrate that change has happened, that his actions match his words and that his promise of 'new leadership' is not just a slogan. On the other hand, the biggest single promise of 'new leadership' is in giving away power and handing the complaints process to an independent overseer. The Campaign Against Antisemitism has already announced that it is submitting complaints against 14 sitting Labour MPs and you would expect that when the new process is in place other organisations will do the same. What happens if an independent process concludes that on the balance of probabilities, some of the 14 MPs should be expelled and some should not? What if the ones to be expelled don't 'seem' to most observers to be the most egregious offenders?
Get the courts on it - like brexit. Judicial technocracy in action/saving the constitution.
 
I'm not sure how it will pan out. The Labour right/media/JLM aren't mobilised on this like they were. And it's a dispute about the extent of anti-Semitism in the LP not whether it exists or whether it's a problem. So it's really a micro question. They aren't on firm ground here at all.
The majority of people are only fuzzily paying attention. The details don't matter much when you're smearing. Just a constant association in the press between 'left wing of Labour' and 'anti-semitism' - and you can bet the right wing press will still mobilise to help with that smearing. You think most voters will probe into the details, or will know it was a debate about extent of problem rather than existence of problem?

Corbyn walked into a trap because he's an idiot on PR, and people would be idiots to follow him.
 
The majority of people are only fuzzily paying attention. The details don't matter much when you're smearing. Just a constant association in the press between 'left wing of Labour' and 'anti-semitism' - and you can bet the right wing press will still mobilise to help with that smearing. You think most voters will probe into the details, or will know it was a debate about extent of problem rather than existence of problem?

Corbyn walked into a trap because he's an idiot on PR, and people would be idiots to follow him.

It's not the majority of people that matter, it's Labour Party members. There will be swathe of members who supported Corbyn's leadership but backed Starmer in January, and if Corbyn is expelled it will be a very explicit stitch up. The left of the party will get a hearing and sympathy from the centre of the party's membership. I think this is terrible politicking from the current leadership.
 
The supreme courts interference in politics last year may well prove to be the model for this technocratic independent intavenshen into parties policies/actions. A universal set of neutral political laws - like the eu has on 'state aid' for example - that can be enforced.
Ah, ok. Yeah I agree - although I don't expect to see any other party adopting this kind of procedure except under a duress - a duress which is unlikely to emerge. So it's just Labour.
 
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