This isn't happening this time IMO. This will impact on the activist base, but I reckon technocratic centrism is coming back in style with electorates.
I don't think so - I think among millenials and younger (under 40s) there is a very strong and persistent demand for real change.
At the very least, something has to be done about housing affordability, and Corbyn attracting overwhelming support from this age group in large part because he was the first candidate to actually address renters rather than homeowners.
Starmer's Labour is taking their votes for granted and seems to be focusing on the interests of elderly, possibly retired, Brexit voting home owners in the "red wall" areas. IMO this is a generational thing. I'm not convinced that younger voters from Blyth are any more likely to vote Tory - Blyth and parts of Durham swung Tory because the younger generation have moved out, they are renting somewhere in Newcastle or elsewhere in the country where there are actually jobs (and they have to move to urban areas because car ownership may be out of reach for many), and they overwhelmingly voted Labour. Retired homeowners just don't understand how hard it is to get by these days as they are not economically active, and so they didn't understand the draw of Corbynism.
Focusing your political platform on winning votes from the retired or soon to be retired (which means protecting rising house prices) at the expense of the working population isn't a great long term strategy.
In 2010 they were ignoring people in their 20s. Now they are ignoring people under the age of 40. While people do tend to drift towards Conservative as they get more established and onto the property market, it doesn't look like people of that age group are actually going to get established in sufficient numbers as previous generations did, and I think we are close to reaching a generational tipping point where the voting power of those who benefited from rising house prices (people born 1980 and earlier, generally speaking) starts to be outnumbered by those born after 1980 who've had a shittier hand.
In the last election, Corbyn's Labour won amongst the under 50s and by a landslide amongst the under 40s, and the generational divide has never been so stark. A return to the politics of Blair which focused on appealing to the "aspirational" home owning middle class is abandoning the interests of voters who will soon be the vast majority of the economically active population in favour of elderly homeowners who are one foot in the grave.
The right wing of the party is wrong to assume that they can take for granted the votes of the younger generation. The Labour right are afraid to take on the interests of landlords and afraid to have a negative impact on house prices, which means they are not capable of delivering the policies needed to address the housing crisis, and purging the left of Labour is a signal that the Labour Party will not take the necessary action.
For this reason, I predict the PASOKification of the Labour Party (or perhaps, the "Scottish Labourisation" of the Labour Party) by the end of the 2020s. I can't predict exactly what form it will take or how, but I'm quite sure that they are swimming against the tide here.
There's also a good chance that Plaid Cymru will absorb a lot of Corbyn's support in Wales and Welsh independence will be a big thing by 2030.
