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Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

chilango said:
If those photos contributed to creating the impression that Labour could yet win this, then they'd make a difference.

I'm not sure that they do.

Yet.
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Perhaps not, but more and more are appearing, getting shared and the Tranmere rally made the Andrew Marr show.

Theresa looks as strong and stable as a jelly. Given where it started from it couldn't be going much better for Corbo.

His time is by no means up.
 
we had the sermon on the mount photos during his election to LP leader and the challenge. There is no doubt he can draw crowds, the point is can it translate into votes outside of that. I did like JTG over on the polling thread talking of welsh people suddenly going 'what the fuck was I thinking, its the tories' (I paraphrase). Been trying to articulate that one all afternoon. Wales having a word with itself lol.

but yeah, its been nothing but a solid victory for the LP in the battle of manifestos. See how it goes, same as ever. If the polls edge that 8-10 pnt overall lead to something closer it might even be worth watching the allnighter. At least till I pass out anyway
 
Probly useful to motivate the troops though. And that seemingly spontaneous "whooa Jeremy Cooorbyn" at the Libertines gig the other day was genuinely pretty impressive, I don't remember that sort of star power from a Westminster politician of any stripe.
 
YouSir said:
What do you care?
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Oh come on, it's a very relevant point. Labour does seem to have shored up it's base, and perhaps even taken some support from the LDs, Greens, etc. But whether it's making those all important swing voters switch to them from the Tories is a hugely important question - at the moment I don't think it really is.
 
I wasn't talking about the Libertines gig motivating troops, specifically, that was just (impressive) spectacle. Multiple rallies with big crowds are often good for making people feel part of a movement that's going places though.
 
redsquirrel said:
Oh come on, it's a very relevant point. Labour does seem to have shored up it's base, and perhaps even taken some support from the LDs, Greens, etc. But whether it's making those all important swing voters switch to them from the Tories is a hugely important question - at the moment I don't think it really is.
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I'll edit that comment out too. I reacted in an unnecessary way, I recanted. It's not a thing worth pursuing unless there's a desperate need to start an argument with me.
 
I think it is possible that the Brexit effect is fading a little. What Labour has succeeded in doing is making this an election like any other, i.e. (mildly) communal solutions against private ones. With Brexit assured people are remembering why they hate the Tories. All that talk of UKIP or LibDems stealing Labour's seats has evaporated.

Maybe we will see the emergence of the 'shy' Labour supporter.

I mean this is what I want to believe, but my doubts about Corbyn have not disappeared. But if he can keep the Tory majority down on a left(ish) manifesto and find a decent successor I'll be grateful to him.
 
redsquirrel said:
Oh come on, it's a very relevant point. Labour does seem to have shored up it's base, and perhaps even taken some support from the LDs, Greens, etc. But whether it's making those all important swing voters switch to them from the Tories is a hugely important question - at the moment I don't think it really is.
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More importantly they can't woo back former Labour voters who switched to UKIP.
 
Mr Moose said:
I think it is possible that the Brexit effect is fading a little. What Labour has succeeded in doing is making this an election like any other, i.e. (mildly) communal solutions against private ones. With Brexit assured people are remembering why they hate the Tories. All that talk of UKIP or LibDems stealing Labour's seats has evaporated.

Maybe we will see the emergence of the 'shy' Labour supporter.

I mean this is what I want to believe, but my doubts about Corbyn have not disappeared. But if he can keep the Tory majority down on a left(ish) manifesto and find a decent successor I'll be grateful to him.
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Brexit as a fact is no longer an issue except for some weird Liberal types who are still producing tactical voting spreadsheets for people who are too clever to worry about their nan's house
 
The39thStep said:
More importantly they can't woo back former Labour voters who switched to UKIP.
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Saw some cross breaks the other day showing 43% of 2015 UKIP voters have gone Tory while 16% have switched to Labour. No idea about how many of these were 2010 Labour voters mind
 
The39thStep said:
More importantly they can't woo back former Labour voters who switched to UKIP.
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While I've got suspicions that more ex-Labour UKIP voters are staying with UKIP than ex-Tory voters I'm not sure how much effect that will have on the number of seats that change hands. You could have a situation like Stoke where the Labour lead is eaten into but the seat remains Labour.

It's certainly going to be interesting to see what the result is in those old Labour heartland seats like Stoke, Hartlepool etc
 
I was out in outside a local college - in a Labour marginal - today (returning a political favour more than anything else - I am not a Labour member!) leafletting with Labour register to vote leaflets (which were actually pretty good political leaflets).

I was slightly surprised at the response. Must have interacted with close to 100 people. Of that, about 75% were elligble to vote. Vast majority of these had already registered, with lots of the students stating they had done so in the past week. With the exception of one proper Harry Enfield Tory boy character, all were intending to vote Labour, many enthusiastically.

About a week ago, in the predict how your constituency will vote thread, I reckoned this marginal seat would go Tory. I'm now changing my mind - Heard nothing from the Tories, had three leaflets + a door knock from Labour. Labour are doing a lot of canvassing (interestingly, it seems Momentum in the area are actually heavily involved in this) and everyone I've spoken to is saying they've had no Tory doorknockers. The Labour social media presence for the consituency is shit, but then the Tory one is relying on the same really poor advert repeated.
 
Rob Ray said:
I wasn't talking about the Libertines gig motivating troops, specifically, that was just (impressive) spectacle. Multiple rallies with big crowds are often good for making people feel part of a movement that's going places though.
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Yesterday evening in Leeds station there was a spontaneous outbreak of corbyn chanting that turned from half a dozen pissed students into an impromptu flash mob of several dozen chanting for corbyn.

Strange times, but I think it's fair to say that the lib dem hopes of swinging the student vote behind them over brexit haven't quite panned out - students haven't quite got memories that short that they forget about the £50k debt the lib dems have landed them with.
 
As my parents keep telling me for months (and i see it's in papers now too) Michael Foot had big crowds turning up for rallies like Corbyn throughout the 1983 election campaign.
 
rutabowa said:
As my parents keep telling me for months (and i see it's in papers now too) Michael Foot had big crowds turning up for rallies like Corbyn throughout the 1983 election campaign.
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I think the meejah keep saying this mainly because they hope the 'taint' of 1983 will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. But on the other hand I've heard a fair few Corbyn supporters being, I think, far too quick to dismiss it. There's a lot of the usual suspects and not a lot of anyone else at the rallies I've been at or near. On the third hand, that may say something about the type of person who loves a good rally and not much about voting intentions. In short, nothing's a reliable indicator of anything any more.
 
rutabowa said:
As my parents keep telling me for months (and i see it's in papers now too) Michael Foot had big crowds turning up for rallies like Corbyn throughout the 1983 election campaign.
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It's worth remembering that Foot was on course to win in 83 before Thatcher decided that going to war was her best route to victory.

Also, May is no Thatcher.
 
butchersapron said:
ugh, beyond ugh
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what's up with you now?

I can't think of any other politician I can remember having their name spontaneously being chanted around Leeds city centre, but if it's a regular occurrence around your neck of the woods then I apologise for making you read my comment.

To be clear, it wasn't an organised flashmob AFAIK, just people who happened to be there joining in like they might with a football chant.
 
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