Jeremy Corbyn's time is up
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Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
you can rent an mp, i am unsure whether you can buy one
Well if you voted leave yesterday when your constituents voted remain for example-like zac goldsmith remember him.There are over 50 tories in that pickle ,may,hammond,redwood ,osborne,my mp etc etc-not sure how many labour -well.corbyn,hoey,chuka,thornberry,starmer,harman etc.
Surely this will only really matter in marginals, if at all? May has a 30,000 majority - nothing is touching that.
I don't think we can draw many wider lessons from Goldsmith tbh - it was a pretty unusual by-election, and it's conditions won't be repeatable in a GE
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
sorry, your hypothosis ignores a rather important fact - that Tory remain voters have either reconciled themselves to Brexit, or take the view that Labour/LD's/UKIP are a bigger no-no than a brexiting Tory government.
the tories could simply not be polling 40+% month-in, month-out if remainers who voted tory in 2015 had got the hump and fucked off.
the tories do not have the same problem as Labour, they have different problems and the timescale for those problems hoving into view is different - but the problem they do not appear to have is tory voting remainersdeserting the party in any great numbers.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
FWIW I'd agree there will be a lingering effect in terms of the way Labour MPs voted Vs the views of their constituents. However it's largely irrelevant in terms of Labour's chances. The EU was never an important issue for most voters, it just became a forum to play out their dissatisfaction with the system and the sense of alienation from the political class. Labour/Corbyn could have played it better but there was never an easy path to follow in terms of keeping the MPs, wider party and Labour minded electorate lined up.
It's slightly surprising how the Tories have emerged from all this. It's been the issue that's fucked them up for at least 25 years and, from the perspective of the leadership, they made a catastrophic mistake calling the referendum. But somehow the remain minded May has come out of it with a sufficiently united party and an unchallenged position. Possibly she's in the strongest position of any Tory leader since fuck knows then, even Thatcher in her pomp. Things may fall apart if there's some post-Brexit catastrophe, but there's no signs of that happening yet, despite all the initial shrill predicitons. But anyway, in terms of Labour, they probably need to move on. Brexit is done and they are not likely to have any points of intervention on what remains of the process. Labour needs to get back to the basics and think about how it got into this situation.
It's slightly surprising how the Tories have emerged from all this. It's been the issue that's fucked them up for at least 25 years and, from the perspective of the leadership, they made a catastrophic mistake calling the referendum. But somehow the remain minded May has come out of it with a sufficiently united party and an unchallenged position. Possibly she's in the strongest position of any Tory leader since fuck knows then, even Thatcher in her pomp. Things may fall apart if there's some post-Brexit catastrophe, but there's no signs of that happening yet, despite all the initial shrill predicitons. But anyway, in terms of Labour, they probably need to move on. Brexit is done and they are not likely to have any points of intervention on what remains of the process. Labour needs to get back to the basics and think about how it got into this situation.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
It's done as a referendum and despite some random farting in the house of lords, it will be in parliament. It's done in the sense that it's going to happen. But beyond that, my feeling is that while the negotiations may come unstuck, they are unlikely to play out in ways that advantage Labour. There's always the 'opposition looks good when governments fuck up' thing, but my sense is that Labour are so disconnected from any movements in voter opinion that they can't really build anything on such governmental fuck ups.Brexit isn't done. Its just starting, headaches yet to emerge.
So its a different problem-thats because they have become ukip.
And remainers did desert in droves in Richmond so you have to hope the byelections fall in the right places-majority of 12(plus dup ) isnt it.?
They cant call a general election due to FTPA and cant enact any legislation to speak of.Boundary changes ?
Scotland likely to hold another referendum next year.
Farage waiting to see the deal before he rejoins.
Lots of problems.
All Labour has to do is push jeremy under sadiqs bus.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Brexit is done politically - there will undoubtedly be issues arising from Brexit to be mopped up, but Brexit is done. much like 2016, its over, we may squabble about what we think of it and the way it affects 2017 and beyond, but its done. over. gone.
gosub
~#
how can it advantage Labour when they 3 lined whipped giving the government a blank cheque.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
because 3 years is a long time in politics? because all anyone who isn't a political nerd remembers about Iraq is that it was Blair wot dun it, that the tories overwhelmingly supported it is a fact lost to the mists of time?
gosub
~#
That the remainers deluded themselves for over six months that it could be stopped is part of the problem. That was political capital spent at the expense of ensuring Brexit could be properly managed. Chances are it won't be and as such it isn't done and gone.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Erm, I agree. But to me Labour's weakness on Brexit is still a playing out of their bigger weakness in terms of who they are, what they believe in and who they engage with.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
But every time we don't get a deal or there's talk of tariffs and Corbyn pops up to berate May, she'll give it the 'I take no lessons from the Rt Hon gentleman...' line, aka 'are you fucking joking, you, couldn't run a fucking whelk stall, shadow cabinet' etc.
Actually, I quite like this analogy of shadow cabinet members as sea snails.
Thats le farages job tho if she does what he wants he can go back to america.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
actually, i think a reasonable wedge of what made Falange effective was who he was up againt - posh boys playing at politics (oh, the irony..), whereas May is a very different kettle of fish.
we shall, of course, see - and the political landscape and Mays optics and polling may be very different in 3 years - but i'd put money on her being a much harder opponant for the Falange in 2020 than Cameron/Osborne were in 2016.
(isn't int interesting that we're completely ignoring UKIP's new leader, that nice Mr Nutter...)
Who despite having a fraction of his predecessor's chops, is likely to end up doing the one thing he's never managed - win a Westminster seat.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
do you think so?
are you thinking Stoke or do you think he'll just go for every Labour by-election north of Watford and that at some point it will pay off?
Stoke I think.
gosub
~#
If he doesn't even come close, UKIP is over
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
blimey. i'd have put good money on close, but a Labour win...
me too - cockroaches and nuclear winter leap to mind.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
a vehicle for loons, ego's and the discontented?
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Political systems always need swivel eyed dishonest grasping cunts. FFS, expenses don't spend themselves!
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
I've been saying that for years. They are still here, like some sort of horrible infection.
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