Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

[Dom Traynor]

People need to stop blaming the media for Corbo coming across as an incompetent tired weak fool - the media did not like Bob Crow but he never came across as anything other than a strong and effective leader. And yes he didn't have a mass of rebellious MPs, but so what? He did have rival unions, and he didn't have 500,000 or so members.

 

[Santino]

A Sargent Wilson three line whip.

"Would you mind awfully falling into three lovely lines?"

 

[Brainaddict]

Was watching Pablo Iglesias talk and wondering what effect JC would be having if he could talk like that. You don't have to agree with Iglesias' rather liberal talk of a social contract here to see why he's able to stir people up and make a splash in the media.

 

[purenarcotic]

Which council is that?

Birmingham city council.

 

[Red Cat]

What council? There is no council.

 

[butchersapron]

Was watching Pablo Iglesias talk and wondering what effect JC would be having if he could talk like that. You don't have to agree with Iglesias' rather liberal talk of a social contract here to see why he's able to stir people up and make a splash in the media.

He's not leader of one of the dual governing parties of a national state with 100 year tradition of w/c based organisation. Compare kike with like. It's not about presentation.

 

[binka]

Compare kike with like

Post reported. Doesn't take long for the mask to slip does it?

 

[butchersapron]

Post reported. Doesn't take long for the mask to slip does it?

You'll never stop me.

Shit.

 

[Pickman's model]

Post reported. Doesn't take long for the mask to slip does it?

Let's hope you don't make any similar typos, eh

 

[Old Spark]

Trouble at mill......Labour Representation Committee has a hissy fit over Lansmans Momentum reforms(or more accurately the way it was done ).

Labour Representation Committee takes aim at “undemocratic” Momentum over controversial member reforms | LabourList

I think LRC have a fair point .

 

[Dom Traynor]

Both sides are full of shit the so called elected bodies were just the same Trots that turn up to things as ever and elect their mates at tedious badly run meetings, and OMOV is more democratic on paper - but obviously that's not why Lansman et al moved to it.

 

[Old Spark]

What will happen if Lab loses in both Copeland and Stoke.?

Or if Lab wins Stoke but not Copeland ?

Or if Lab wins Copeland but not Stoke ?.

What happens to Ukip if they dont win Stoke ?.

What happens if Len McC loses.

What happens if Lab wins in Copeland and Stoke and Len McC wins.

Imo JCs priority is to pass the torch and that means getting a rule change thru conference -if he did I could see him going well before 2020.

 

[gosub]

Disastrous PMQ's

 

[Wilf]

What will happen if Lab loses in both Copeland and Stoke.?

Or if Lab wins Stoke but not Copeland ?

Or if Lab wins Copeland but not Stoke ?.

What happens to Ukip if they dont win Stoke ?.

What happens if Len McC loses.

What happens if Lab wins in Copeland and Stoke and Len McC wins.

Imo JCs priority is to pass the torch and that means getting a rule change thru conference -if he did I could see him going well before 2020.

I've been very confidently predicting Labour will lose both Copeland and Stoke. Having said that, I'm just about to start trimming... a bit. Labour are in no better position than they were before Brexit, probably worse, and Corbyn's leadership has flatlined. Same time it's hard to predict not just ukip's potential vote in these by elections, but also whether Brexity feeling will simply translate into UKIP (or Tory) votes now that Brexit has been done. I still have a feeling Labour will lose at least one of them though.

 

[Old Spark]

I've been very confidently predicting Labour will lose both Copeland and Stoke. Having said that, I'm just about to start trimming... a bit. Labour are in no better position than they were before Brexit, probably worse, and Corbyn's leadership has flatlined. Same time it's hard to predict not just ukip's potential vote in these by elections, but also whether Brexity feeling will simply translate into UKIP (or Tory) votes now that Brexit has been done. I still have a feeling Labour will lose at least one of them though.

Which means Labour will won one -so every time brillo etc says you lost copeland -they will counter with ah but we won stoke.So JC is safe imo on that scenario.Presumably stoke will declare before copeland due to geography.

 

[kebabking]

Is one of these seats more important to Labour than the other?

For myself, I'm very much getting the feeling that to lose Copeland would be disappointing but it would be part of the normal ebb and flow of politics, whereas to lose Stoke would be a bit more 'stake through the heart's stuff - I'm also getting a vibe that who Labour loses to that's important - anyone else share that view?

Personally I'm betting on Tories taking Copeland, and Labour winning Stoke with a small majority, with Labour second in Copeland and the Kippers second in Stoke...

Even if Labour win both there's still a big problem - I'm a party member in the south west Midlands, and i can see the resources that are being lined up to be piled into Stoke: we're talking about 20+ marginal, 'must win' constituencies worth of GE resources. If that's what it takes to win one seat then the party is fucked at the GE....

 

[Pickman's model]

since the recent american election i am having trouble mustering enthusiasm for this sort of psephological contest.

 

[Old Spark]

Is one of these seats more important to Labour than the other?

For myself, I'm very much getting the feeling that to lose Copeland would be disappointing but it would be part of the normal ebb and flow of politics, whereas to lose Stoke would be a bit more 'stake through the heart's stuff - I'm also getting a vibe that who Labour loses to that's important - anyone else share that view?

Personally I'm betting on Tories taking Copeland, and Labour winning Stoke with a small majority, with Labour second in Copeland and the Kippers second in Stoke...

Even if Labour win both there's still a big problem - I'm a party member in the south west Midlands, and i can see the resources that are being lined up to be piled into Stoke: we're talking about 20+ marginal, 'must win' constituencies worth of GE resources. If that's what it takes to win one seat then the party is fucked at the GE....

They wont have as much as the Tories but they never do.But the two leadership elections raised a bundle .

Its probably worth spending to the ,er,legal limit if the reward is to kill off ukip and nuttall.

 

[Old Spark]

since the recent american election i am having trouble mustering enthusiasm for this sort of psephological contest.

The national polls werent far off as clinton got 2.9 million more votes than trump(something which keeps him awake at night).Thats a 2 percent lead.But of course you need the votes in the right places and his were almost perfect.

Her campaign seemed oblivious to what was going on so her own polling was awry.His might have been better --dunno all you can say is he visited the right states which were in play.

State polls were wrong- some by a lot.

 

[se5]

... lose Copeland would be disappointing but it would be part of the normal ebb and flow of politics, whereas to lose Stoke would be a bit more 'stake through the heart's stuff - I'm also getting a vibe that who Labour loses to that's important - anyone else share that view?

Surely the normal ebb and flow of politics is for the main opposition party to be keeping their seats in byelections - its normally the Government that loses its seats to the opposition. That Labour is having to worry about retaining its seats is a sign of the poor state of the party and the abnormal times in which we are living.

 

[Wilf]

Guardian rolling cover thingy reporting Corbyn will impose a 3 line whip on article 50 - with Clive Lewis already announcing he'll ignore it.

 

[kebabking]

Guardian rolling cover thingy reporting Corbyn will impose a 3 line whip on article 50 - with Clive Lewis already announcing he'll ignore it.

i was going to note that as a general rule i try not to have any sympathy for Corbyn, but that in this case he's in something of a no-win situation regarding whipping (ooh err missus..) on the A50 issue, and then i recalled that he and John McDonnell share the dubious title of the being the most rebelious MP's that any Labour Leader since 1924 have ever faced, and the speck of sympathy disapeared in a puff of 'if its good enough for you you hypocritical cnut...' smoke.

 

[gosub]

i was going to note that as a general rule i try not to have any sympathy for Corbyn, but that in this case he's in something of a no-win situation regarding whipping (ooh err missus..) on the A50 issue, and then i recalled that he and John McDonnell share the dubious title of the being the most rebelious MP's that any Labour Leader since 1924 have ever faced, and the speck of sympathy disapeared in a puff of 'if its good enough for you you hypocritical cnut...' smoke.

its only hypocritcal if he gets 'upset' at those MP's ignoring party line.

 

[cantsin]

i was going to note that as a general rule i try not to have any sympathy for Corbyn, but that in this case he's in something of a no-win situation regarding whipping (ooh err missus..) on the A50 issue, and then i recalled that he and John McDonnell share the dubious title of the being the most rebelious MP's that any Labour Leader since 1924 have ever faced, and the speck of sympathy disapeared in a puff of 'if its good enough for you you hypocritical cnut...' smoke.

totally fucking inane comment, just says nothing

 

[cantsin]

Guardian rolling cover thingy reporting Corbyn will impose a 3 line whip on article 50 - with Clive Lewis already announcing he'll ignore it.

the fact that Lewis is now apparently putting himself in the frame as chief Remain sympathiser on the left of the party just feels like the end of this particular road for now ( a road that was never going anywhere long term anyway) . The only figure on the Corbo wing that looked / sounded like he had a chance of connecting with both the parties new membership, and some of it's more traditional base...now seen as chief Lab Remoaner.

UKIP getting towards evens with the bookies in Stoke, Corbo headed toward de facto busted flush status, Lewis blown it ...

 

[Wilf]

totally fucking inane comment, just says nothing

Though it does take us to the heart of the matter. Corbyn gets judged by the rituals of the parliamentary carnival, party discipline, who gets to stand in by elections etc. He does parliamentary politics, he gets judged by that. Trouble is he isn't doing much to build anything else. That's why he can't avoid being judged by the standards and discourse of lobby journalism, question time, brillo and all that. Even more than the Bennites would have been had they come to power in the party, he's trapped inside parliament.

 

[killer b]

the fact that Lewis is now apparently putting himself in the frame as chief Remain sympathiser on the left of the party just feels like the end of this particular road for now ( a road that was never going anywhere long term anyway) . The only figure on the Corbo wing that looked / sounded like he had a chance of connecting with both the parties new membership, and some of it's more traditional base...now seen as chief Lab Remoaner.

Probably best to wait to find out Lewis' actual position before assuming this isn't it?

 

[where to]

Lewis is making a major l/t strategic error if this is how he's going to announce himself to the general public.

 

[brogdale]

Lewis is making a major l/t strategic error if this is how he's going to announce himself to the general public.

All sounds a bit Lib-Labby?

 

[SpookyFrank]

What happens to Ukip if they dont win Stoke ?.

Nuthall shamelessly parachutes himself into the next byelection in any place where UKIP might win.