Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

[billy_bob]

However, a victory for Corbyn here opens up more possibilities than a defeat would do.

Yeah, I think that sums it up fairly well. He's not the solution - of course he's not. But he's a more interesting and at least potentially productive direction for things to go in than a ditching of the 'experiment' and a move back towards the heart of neo-liberal consensus rather than its fringes.

 

[Wilf]

I don't agree that the potential for an election victory is lost, but that's by the by really. Winning a fight for the party now wins potential, either under Corbyn or someone else the party will be pried open and forced to accept something closer to its founding purpose. It'll never be something that appeals to your politics, but it'll certainly be better for them if there's a mainstream left voice, even a parliamentary, social democratic one.

.
No, it wouldn't appeal to my politics, but I'm trying to think about it in terms of its own logic. And in that sense how it plays out is important. Labour couldn't win a snap election as they were a week ago and certainly can't now. How it plays out is important in the rules of the game. If the party ends up with someone like Burnham they could just hold together as an uneasy coalition, something like the fudge of the miliband years, but in a more depressing climate. If the blairites are eventually crushed you end up with a more coherent party, but labour either splits or a significant splinter go into talks with the libdems (or some variation on any of these). None of that adds up to winning in 2016 or 2020. That's entirely banal, conventional parliamentary logic, but that's the terrain corbyn has refused to budge from.

 

[chilango]

do you mean a ge victory or him staying as leader?

Both. But he has to stay as leader first.

 

[killer b]

Some polling that says 25% of the people who voted Labour at the last GE wouldn't again if Corbyn was the leader.

Doesn't the same polling say a similar % of the people who voted tory at the last GE wouldn't do again too?

 

[Louis MacNeice]

Some polling that says 25% of the people who voted Labour at the last GE wouldn't again if Corbyn was the leader.

How many of the other parties' voters said they'd stick with their choices?

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

 

[Louis MacNeice]

Doesn't the same polling say a similar % of the people who voted tory at the last GE wouldn't do again too?

I think a significantly larger percentage of Tory voters said so...although I can't find a link at the minute.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

 

[YouSir]

Doesn't the same polling say a similar % of the people who voted tory at the last GE wouldn't do again too?

Yep, someone on here found the numbers. Every party was down by a chunk, Labour least of all I think.

 

[Ole]

Yes, I found it in a Survation poll.

30% of Tory voters, 40% of Lib Dem voters and 26% of UKIP voters all say they wouldn't vote for them in a GE held tomorrow. Labour were also 26%.

 

[butchersapron]

Independent yesterday had a piece on a poll that found a certin% of leavers regretted their vote. They then shouted a million people based on whatever % it was and used that as the headline. At the end - i think a few lines - they said the poll found the same for remain voters who regretted their vote.

 

[billy_bob]

Doesn't the same polling say a similar % of the people who voted tory at the last GE wouldn't do again too?

How many of the other parties' voters said they'd stick with their choices?

I think a significantly larger percentage of Tory voters said so...although I can't find a link at the minute.

Sorry, can't find the link either, but yes, that's another huge variable muddying the picture. I'm not suggesting I think Corbyn's the best man for the job, let alone that he's likely to get it, so much as that in the current situation all sorts of unlikely things suddenly seem harder to rule out...

 

[billy_bob]

This Guardian article quotes the internal LP polling I was thinking of - the percentage is even greater than that from the Survation poll quoted above. Look how the Guardian spin it though:

Leaked internal Labour party polling suggested that Labour would attract nearly 3 million fewer votes than it did in the 2015 general election if one were called today.

It shows that just 71% of those who voted for Ed Miliband’s Labour party in May last year say they would vote Labour now...

Quite clearly the conclusion in the first sentence (3 million fewer votes) does not follow from the second unless you ignore all the other variables.

 

[Ole]

Just had another look, there's a new poll from ICM.

Their numbers are:

30% Tory voters wouldn't vote Conservative
30% UKIP voters wouldn't vote UKIP
24% Labour voters wouldn't vote Labour
53% Lib Dem voters wouldn't vote LD

 

[billy_bob]

Thank god for the Lib Dems, eh? Still providing a bit of comic relief amidst all this shit.

 

[butchersapron]

53% Lib Dem voters wouldn't vote LD

And the other one was having 2nd thoughts.

 

[DaveCinzano]

Lib Dems - the white dogshit of British parliamentary politics

 

[treelover]

30% UKIP voters wouldn't vote UKIP

Be interested to know where this vote would go, not vot again, etc?

btw, reckon my MP Paul Blomfield is to vote no confidence, he is being very cagey.

 

[Ole]

To clarify.

Breakdown of those floating voters:

Tory voters would vote:

3% Labour
2% Lib Dem
5% UKIP
1% Green
17% Don't Know

Labour voters would vote:

3% Tory
2% Lib Dem
5% UKIP
1% Plaid Cymru
2% Green
1% Wouldn't Vote
11% Don't Know

UKIP voters would vote:

9% Tory
3% Labour
1% Lib Dem
2% Wouldn't vote
16% Don't Know

Lib Dem voters would vote:

8% Tory
12% Labour
1% UKIP
3% SNP
3% Green
26% Don't Know

 

[wheelie_bin]

Looks like the time is right once again for a party called "don't know".

 

[billy_bob]

To clarify.

Breakdown of those floating voters:

Tory voters would vote:

3% Labour
2% Lib Dem
5% UKIP
1% Green
17% Don't Know

Labour voters would vote:

3% Tory
2% Lib Dem
5% UKIP
1% Plaid Cymru
2% Green
1% Wouldn't Vote
11% Don't Know

UKIP voters would vote:

9% Tory
3% Labour
1% Lib Dem
2% Wouldn't vote
16% Don't Know

Lib Dem voters would vote:

8% Tory
12% Labour
1% UKIP
3% SNP
3% Green
26% Don't Know

Here we are mocking the Lib Dems when as many as 5% of voters are thinking about switching to them. So really they'll only lose 48%.

 

[DaveCinzano]

Looks like the time is right once again for a party called "don't know".

 

[Lord Camomile]

Looks like the time is right once again for a party called "don't know".

Would certainly be the most honest party.

 

[billy_bob]

On the plus side, the Wouldn't Vote vote is right down on the basis of that poll.

 

[wheelie_bin]

Given the total of the LibDem vote last time, picking up 5% from everyone else gives them a massive increase, even if they lost half the votes they had before.

 

[Rob Ray]

Given the total of the LibDem vote last time, picking up 5% from everyone else gives them a massive increase, even if they lost half the votes they had before.

I wouldn't be in the least surprised if the Lib Dems benefit fairly substantially from the sort of dingus who, when confronted with a demasked Tory party and a Labour Party at war with itself, decides "well I need to vote for someone, why not that bunch, I haven't heard much from them so I'm sure they've learned from the last time they betrayed everything they nominally stood for."

 

[butchersapron]

I wouldn't be in the least surprised if the Lib Dems benefit fairly substantially from the sort of dingus who, when confronted with a demasked Tory party and a Labour Party at war with itself, decides "well I need to vote for someone, why not that bunch, I haven't heard much from them so I'm sure they've learned from the last time they betrayed everything they nominally stood for."

Some journey for them types: labour-->gulf war->lib-dems-->greens-->labour--lib-dems

 

[billy_bob]

Given the total of the LibDem vote last time, picking up 5% from everyone else gives them a massive increase, even if they lost half the votes they had before.

They got 2,415,862 votes. If 53% did abandon them, that would leave them 1,135,455 votes.

If they then got 2% each of the 2015 Tory and Labour votes and 1% of the UKIP votes as suggested above, that would be back up to 2,868,311. I guess they'd be glad to take what they can get, but it only takes them from 5.2% of the registered electorate to 6.2%. Hardly massive.

 

[ska invita]

Angela Eagle said to be considering challenge for Labour leadership

 

[butchersapron]

Angela Eagle said to be considering challenge for Labour leadership

He didn't text me back. I'm going to stab him in the back for that. I think communication is very important in the modern world.

 

[DotCommunist]

note how its always 'I think' with these people. How about what your membership thinks and what the constituents think? Wastes.

 

[two sheds]

Petition for vote of confidence in Corbyn reached over 200,000.

A VOTE OF CONFIDENCE IN JEREMY CORBYN AFTER BREXIT | Campaigns by You