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Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

I wouldn't say that he is doing uniquely badly because of this, but it certainly doesn't help his cause.
if it doesn't help anyone then there's no need to pick his position up. Unless, you think the LP and it's voters are - again, uniquely - concerned with immigration. Given the spread of cross class party voting over the last 20 years, i don't think this is true.
 
I don't disagree with your analysis, just the emphasis. Where you have the figures looking bad, I'd go with very bad and I'd quibble about Labour being level before the latest onslaught of attacks. I won't bother rehearsing the problems with polls, but on the raw figures they've only had 3 leads since the last election:
Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

My point isn't to quibble with the figures/terms, it's more that it's hard to see Labour/Corbyn as party/pm shaping up for power. May well be that if the right are purged it has a chance of being a functional party in the future, who knows, but for the foreseeable period things are only going to get worse (battles over de-selections, legal challenges etc.).
For sure: and regardless of where the blame lies, it's difficult to see how things are going to calm down anytime soon.
 
In terms of polls - does doing really badly a year after the election always = omg destruction? Quite a big thing to answer regardless of the wider context this is happening in.
Polls do what polls do, yes, at 12 months after an election. The context is obvious, yes. But would you rather be consistently behind in the polls or ahead - and, much more to the point, does it look the Corbyn left can turn this round and win, get a swift victory over the Blairites? We'll have to see, but I doubt it.
 
Polls do what polls do, yes, at 12 months after an election. The context is obvious, yes. But would you rather be consistently behind in the polls or ahead - and, much more to the point, does it look the Corbyn left can turn this round and win, get a swift victory over the Blairites? We'll have to see, but I doubt it.
That's why i asked - for some historical comparison.
 
But why would that matter? I mean I actually agree, I think Corbyn is unlikely to win a general election unless something truly earth-shattering happens (which it might, Hammond's not been left with much room and there's every chance something will go very wrong for Tory-linked economics in the next four years). But none of this is about 2020. At the outside it might be about 2025 if general elections are your bag.
 
Exactly. He is very popular among left-of-labourites (greens, trots, various other socialists), public sector trade union activists and politicised students. He is not popular enough among those that really matter electorally. Basically, he's good at preaching to the converted, but his views on immigration and Brexit are way out of step with w/c opinion in this country.
Agree ... having already done a tour of the country to his core audience 9 months back, and always turning up at every Tolpuddle, Durham miners, etc, since then, I would say he'd be better of trying to use this forthcoming campaign as a chance to connect with other voters - not sure how exactly, but I guess booking different venues that arent traditionally associated with the converted, or getting in amongst the local communities more directly. Converted'll probably turn up anyway, if theyre worried halls will be empty
Given that all sides want free movement - or recognise this as inevitable - what is the point of suggesting Corbyn is uniquely doing badly because of this?
Parties /MPs of the right on the whole make noise about wanting to bring down immigration and Take Back Control, even if in practice they do the opposite
 
Corbyn is pro-immigration and was pro-remain. Most w/c people in Britain have concerns with immigration and want it reduced, and voted Leave. What has racism got to do with any of this?
You're being extremely disingenuous here, like a true Blairite. "What has racism got to do with any of this?" Bollocks.

Please provide proof that most working class people are concerned with immigration - more than other classes. Is it actually true, or is it just that you know a lot of middle class people and very few working class?

When it comes to Brexit it's odd how the news focused on working class regions voting to leave while ignoring the home counties voting en masse to leave and inner cities mostly not.
 
You're being extremely disingenuous here, like a true Blairite. "What has racism got to do with any of this?" Bollocks.

Please provide proof that most working class people are concerned with immigration - more than other classes. Is it actually true, or is it just that you know a lot of middle class people and very few working class?

When it comes to Brexit it's odd how the news focused on working class regions voting to leave while ignoring the home counties voting en masse to leave and inner cities mostly not.
As I wrote in my earlier posts, I'm not basing this on my personal experiences. I'm basing it on years and years of polls and data. Here are just some examples of many:

"The AB social group (broadly speaking, professionals and managers) were the only social group among whom a majority voted to remain (57%). C1s divided fairly evenly; nearly two thirds of C2DEs (64%) voted to leave the EU."

How the United Kingdom voted on Thursday... and why - Lord Ashcroft Polls

"Generally speaking, do you think the level of immigration into Britain over the last ten years has been too high, too low or about right?"

ABC1 C2DE​
Much too high: 40 58
A little too high: 29 23
About right: 23 13
A little too low: 2 1
Much too low: 1 1
Don't know: 6 4

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/f4rr9eo24l/YG-Archive-Pol-Times-results-2502015-W.pdf

[eta: Apologies for the misaligned table]
 
Please provide proof that most working class people are concerned with immigration - more than other classes.

From pages 19 and 20 of this report by ipsos-mori:

Recent work published by Lord Ashcroft on public attitudes towards immigration reflects the importance of age, class and education in shaping views. His report, Small island: Public opinion and the politics of immigration suggests there are seven segments of opinion among Britons on the topic of immigration.

“Universal Hostility” (16% of the population): the most negative group, hostile to all aspects of immigration and with nine in ten saying it is one of the top three issues facing the country. Members of this group are most likely to be working class, middle-aged and with low levels of formal education.

“Cultural Concerns” (16%): largely composed of older people, many of whom are owner occupiers, this group believe immigration has on the whole been bad for the UK. In particular they are concerned about cultural changes in their local area and/or in society, as well as the pressure of immigration on public services. They are less likely than average to say they have lost out to immigrants, either in the jobs market or in accessing benefits or other public services.

“Competing for Jobs” (14%): while being no less likely than those in ‘Cultural Concerns’ to think the disadvantages of immigration outweigh the advantages overall, this group is most concerned about the impact of immigration on jobs and wages. Although they acknowledge that immigrants often work hard for low pay doing jobs that others will not, they are more likely than average to think immigrants take jobs that would otherwise go to British people and/or that they push down wages.

“Fighting for Entitlements” (12%): This group also places immigration at the top of its list of concerns, and is predominantly concerned about its impact on competition for public services and benefits. This group is older than average with relatively low levels of formal education.

“Comfortable pragmatists” (22%): Comprising largely of graduates and professionals, this group shows little concern about immigration as an issue. Most have a balanced view, believing immigration has put pressure on the economy and public services, but that it has also enriched the country and society

“Urban Harmony” (9%): Predominantly young and based in urban centres, particularly London, this group is the most ethnically diverse of all the segments. While recognising the cultural and economic benefits of immigration, this group has mixed views on immigration. Being concentrated in urban centres they are more likely than average to have seen and felt the impact of immigration on competition for work, wages, access to housing or other public services and the character of the local area.

“Militantly Multicultural” (10%): Dominated by graduates and professionals, with the greatest concentration of public sector employees, this group is overwhelmingly positive about nearly every aspect of immigration. They value the economic and cultural contribution of immigrants and are twice as likely as average to employ immigrants to clean or do building jobs. For this group, immigration comes at the very bottom of their list of concerns for the country.

immigration concern 1996-2013.png

edited to add: I'm not sure what the categories on the right of the graph correspond to. I'm guessing income brackets?
 
Exactly. He is very popular among left-of-labourites (greens, trots, various other socialists), public sector trade union activists and politicised students. He is not popular enough among those that really matter electorally. Basically, he's good at preaching to the converted, but his views on immigration and Brexit are way out of step with w/c opinion in this country.

He is also popular with Labour Party members and private sector trade unionists. His 70/30 view on the EU is probably far closer to many of the working class who voted leave than the uncritical Europhilia of his opponents in the PLP.

As for immigration, I'll concede he's out of step with the polls, but here we come to one of the key elements of leadership - it's to lead not follow. If you think the way forward is for Labour to go back to its 2015 election commitment on immigration then you're the one out of step.

Also I don't think the polls give an accurate picture of working class attitudes - for well rehearsed reasons far too complex to go into here.
 
social class

Ahh yes, just did a google.

A: Higher managerial, administrative or professional
B: Intermediate managerial, administrative or professional
C1: Supervisory or clerical and junior managerial, administrative or professional
C2: Skilled manual workers
D: Semi and unskilled manual workers
E: Casual or lowest grade workers, pensioners and others who depend on the state for their income

Interesting that grade E seem relatively comfortable with immigration.
 
You're being extremely disingenuous here, like a true Blairite. "What has racism got to do with any of this?" Bollocks.

Please provide proof that most working class people are concerned with immigration - more than other classes. Is it actually true, or is it just that you know a lot of middle class people and very few working class?

When it comes to Brexit it's odd how the news focused on working class regions voting to leave while ignoring the home counties voting en masse to leave and inner cities mostly not.

If Mk12 is now a Blairite its a long road he has travelled.
 
You can prove anything with facts can't you?
Well, you can try. But your stats don't back up what you say - they don't show a big difference between working class people and middle class. They show that, statistically, a majority of both middle class *and* working class people are concerned about immigration with not much between them. Given that working class people feel the immediate impact of immigration more it's surprising the difference isn't larger, really.

And Corbyn isn't going to change his policies to appeal to stastics. That's part of his appeal. He'd lose a lot of support if he were to change that.
 
So w/c people aren't concerned with immigration and they didn't, in the main, vote leave. Gotcha.

That is not what I'm saying - posing a question where immigration being too high is planted in the question is not necessarily reflective of the views of the person being questioned - these are narrow and specific parameters - the issue is more complex than that . Tbh I pay no attention to these polls beloved of pundits and career politicians -
 
That is not what I'm saying - posing a question where immigration being too high is planted in the question is not necessarily reflective of the views of the person being questioned - these are narrow and specific parameters - the issue is more complex than that . Tbh I pay no attention to these polls beloved of pundits and career politicians -

What about the question posed in the graph I posted?
 
Well, you can try. But your stats don't back up what you say - they don't show a big difference between working class people and middle class. They show that, statistically, a majority of both middle class *and* working class people are concerned about immigration with not much between them. Given that working class people feel the immediate impact of immigration more it's surprising the difference isn't larger, really.

And Corbyn isn't going to change his policies to appeal to stastics. That's part of his appeal. He'd lose a lot of support if he were to change that.

I never said that w/c people are concerned with immigration more than other classes. Are you really arguing that the majority of w/c people in this country aren't concerned with immigration?

What about the Brexit stats? Are you satisfied with my argument on that issue?
 
I'm still none the wiser which working class mk12 is referring to, it's almost as though he doesn't want to think about the complications inherent in talking about broad populations as one entity.
No idea, the statistics we've been discussing don't go into that level of detail. Of course using any broad concept like 'working class' is problematic. Just like using 'northern working class'. Do you mean Yorkshire or Lancashire? etc etc
 
Christ, are we really doing this again? The polls are pretty clear, there is widespread anti-immigration sentiment in the working class. We shouldn't still be debating that ffs - we should be talking about why that's happened, and what the response should be (clue: 'controls on immigration' carved into a tombstone isn't it)
 
No idea, the statistics we've been discussing don't go into that level of detail. Of course using any broad concept like 'working class' is problematic. Just like using 'northern working class'. Do you mean Yorkshire or Lancashire? etc etc

So in reality you have no idea who actually thinks these things, or why, you're just mashing your preconceptions, which seem to be media-fed as they fit so nicely into mainstream narratives, onto a non-existent homogenous glob you're calling "the working class" based on a broad trend of responses to the most base and simplistic of polling questions. And then extracting from that a recommendation for what politicians "should" be saying in response.
 
So in reality you have no idea who actually thinks these things, or why, you're just mashing your preconceptions, which seem to be media-fed as they fit so nicely into mainstream narratives, onto a non-existent homogenous glob you're calling "the working class" based on a broad trend of responses to the most base and simplistic of polling questions.

Yeah, we can't generalise at all about anything. Ever.
 

I don't know whether it is being directed by the security services or not (though it would be in keeping with modus operandi outlined in Snowden leaks) but this definitely happened during the Democratic Primaries in the US.

That being said of course some, no doubt most, of the abuse does not need any outside prompting. People are angry.
 
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