Three months ago the idea of a fresh political grouping was seen as mad. Now the tectonic plates are beginning to move
Like the Fisher King in T S Eliot’s poem The Waste Land, Jeremy Corbyn presides over the Labour Party, impotent and unable to perform his task, while behind him his kingdom turns into an “arid plain”. “I was neither living nor dead, and I knew nothing,” says another voice in the poem. This Labour ordeal cannot — and will not — go on.
Yesterday, the leader posted a video message for members urging the party to “come together now”, but the mood of the moderates is hardening. The Unite union leader Len McCluskey may describe Mr Corbyn as a “man of steel” but he is up against MPs who are fighting for their political survival.
Once 172 MPs have declared no confidence in their leader it is hard to see how a deal can be struck.
This is not just about an individual, it’s a fundamental disagreement about the balance between ideological purity and pursuit of power. If Mr Corbyn somehow stays, or is replaced by another hard-left candidate, MPs are in no doubt about what will happen — as several told me: “The party will split.”
Already the possibilities are being explored. One option is for the rebels to make a “unilateral declaration of independence” in the House of Commons, setting up a separate grouping with their own leader.
As they would have more MPs, they could argue that they, and not Mr Corbyn’s rump, should be the official opposition. There would also be a legal fight for the Labour name, with the larger chunk of MPs pushing to retain the brand, funding and infrastructure. A former shadow cabinet minister describes this as a “Clause One rather than a Clause Four moment” because the first line of the party’s constitution defines its purpose as “to organise and maintain in parliament and in the country a political Labour Party”.
What is fascinating, though, is that a growing number of MPs, peers, candidates and advisers now believe that it is time to start again with a new party of the centre left. Three months ago it was seen as foolish, or even heretical, to suggest such a thing, but since the EU referendum the idea has become mainstream. The Brexit vote has changed everything, with a former cabinet minister talking of the exciting possibilities for a “party of the 48 per cent”.
Privately many senior figures — not just so-called Blairites, but also former Brownites and people who subscribe to the “Blue Labour” approach — are coming around to the idea of breaking away.
One MP says it’s a question of supply and demand: “There is clearly a market for a new party of the centre left because there are so many people who feel they have no one to vote for. Labour is veering to the left and the Tories to the right so that leaves a gap.”
A former Downing Street adviser argues that it will be impossible for moderates to win back control of the Labour Party because the membership is likely to remain dominated by leftwingers. The trade unions, which were once a force for moderation, have become part of the problem, encouraging the drift to the left. In his view: “Nobody wants a new party for the sake of it but it’s starting to look inevitable.”
Already, potential donors who could support such a venture are being discussed. “Money would not be a problem. You would need £8 million and you could raise that in a week,” says one of those involved behind the scenes. “If Corbyn stays then we have another organisation that isn’t called the Labour Party. That gets exciting because it doesn’t have all the baggage, the links to the unions; you could create a new constitution and policy programme. There’s a massive opportunity for a pro-business, socially liberal party in favour of the EU.”
It would also have a “pragmatic” approach to immigration and crime, in an attempt to win over some white working-class voters in Labour’s industrial heartlands.
As one strategist says: “What the referendum showed is that the Labour core vote is not a core vote. You have to reinvent the electoral coalition.”
Money would not be a problem. You would need £8 million and you could raise that in a week
Links forged across party divides in the Remain campaign have been maintained and are forming the basis of new alliances. Pro-European MPs from all parties have already met in the House of Commons to discuss co-operation as Brexit legislation goes through parliament. Lord Ashdown of Norton-sub-Hamdon, the former Liberal Democrats leader, has also been talking to Labour and Tory grandees about creating a cross-party movement for people with “modern progressive views”.
He argues that the two main parties are no longer capable of holding together the divergent views within them. “In the present crisis in which everything is incredibly fluid the old structures of politics seem to be breaking down.”
Those yearning for a new party have always been haunted by the failure of the SDP in the 1980s but the situation now is completely different. An overwhelming majority of MPs oppose Labour’s current direction of travel. More importantly, the country has changed socially, culturally and politically. The old tribal allegiances have gone: in the EU referendum, vast numbers of Labour voters in the northern industrial heartlands defied their party’s line to vote for Brexit.
The old saying that “a monkey with a red rosette could win” in safe Labour seats proved to be spectacularly out of date in Scotland. Politics is more fluid than ever. In 1966, only 13 per cent of voters changed their minds about who to support from the previous election. Last year, according to the British Election Study, 38 per cent of people switched parties between 2010 and 2015.
All over Europe new parties are using social media to capitalise on an insurgent mood. Last month the Five Star Movement, which has positioned itself as being beyond the ideological divisions of left and right, won a landslide victory against the prime minister Matteo Renzi’s Democratic Party in Rome. Podemos has shaken up Spanish politics. In Denmark, The Alternative, which broke away from the Social Liberal Party in 2013, has won seats by crowd-sourcing policies through “political laboratories”.
Although it is harder for new parties to flourish under the British first past the post voting system than with proportional representation, MPs believe that Labour is becoming so marginalised that it would be possible for a more sensible, modern, centre-left alternative to usurp it as the main opposition to the Conservatives.
With every threat comes an opportunity. Antonio Gramsci talked of the morbid symptoms that appear during a crisis when “the old is dying and the new cannot be born”. That is exactly what Labour is suffering now.
It is time for the new to emerge from the wasteland of the old.