Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

[MickiQ]

All 14,000 of them. You're contradicting yourself here, though. How can you can have a vote in reaction to a potential protest vote if protest voting in GEs isn't a thing?

If Corbyn can switch 18000 votes from Labour then only 2,000 of those need to switch to Labour to defeat him (a much smaller switch). Like I say from a pure numbers perspective things do not favour him. It could very well be that there will be other factors in play but really at the moment they are all purely opinions with no hard facts to back them up.

 

[Silas Loom]

If Corbyn can switch 18000 votes from Labour then only 2,000 of those need to switch to Labour to defeat him (a much smaller switch). Like I say from a pure numbers perspective things do not favour him. It could very well be that there will be other factors in play but really at the moment they are all purely opinions with no hard facts to back them up.

Yes, that could be a factor. Tory voters had a hope of success when Livingston went rogue. They don’t here, and will be strongly tempted to switch either out of principle (pace Kebab) or simply for shits and giggles.

 

[Sue]

vox pop in Islington North

How posh is that reporter.

 

[Knotted]

If Corbyn can switch 18000 votes from Labour then only 2,000 of those need to switch to Labour to defeat him (a much smaller switch). Like I say from a pure numbers perspective things do not favour him. It could very well be that there will be other factors in play but really at the moment they are all purely opinions with no hard facts to back them up.

I think we live in a period where large numbers of people are willing to switch votes in general. I don't think there is much party loyalty for any of the main parties these days. That messes with intuitions about voting patterns formed in previous decades.

 

[krtek a houby]

I don't think it was as simple as that. The mass mobilisation around the hunger strikers was the first taste SF got of an alternative to the gun - but they stayed quite keen on the gun for many years after that.

Yes, well. Obviously not as simple as that.

Although, you might be confusing the IRA with Sinn Fein. Which is understandable, a lot of people did, and still do.

 

[andysays]

View attachment 425778

I think the bit about Corbyn not standing unless he was pretty sure of his position is correct.

Let's also remember that he's had a few years to prepare for this situation.

He may have only announced his intention to run yesterday, but he and his team have likely been planning it for a while.

 

[ska invita]

He may have only announced his intention to run yesterday, but he and his team have likely been planning it for a while.

thats for sure, its been agreed for ages, the question was whether it was as an independent or as part of a new formation

 

[Cerv]

I think the bit about Corbyn not standing unless he was pretty sure of his position is correct.

Let's also remember that he's had a few years to prepare for this situation.

He may have only announced his intention to run yesterday, but he and his team have likely been planning it for a while.

apparently the plan was to announce Tuesday next week in the Islington Tribune (it's only a weekly paper), but has been pushed into it early by the GE being called on Weds.

 

[imposs1904]

Not for me - I'd love it.

Firstly we get to kick out all those foolish enough to support his election campaign in some way. Secondly, him being in parliament he gets to keep discrediting himself rather than being viewed through rose tinted glasses - and thirdly, him continuing to exist (politically) keeps the flame alive: for moths to fly towards.

Like a self-baiting rat trap.

Cringe.

I bet you were a student politico.

 

[kebabking]

Cringe.

I bet you were a student politico.

SWSS - for two weeks. Then I got bored and joined the Climbing club instead.

 

[andysays]

apparently the plan was to announce Tuesday next week in the Islington Tribune (it's only a weekly paper), but has been pushed into it early by the GE being called on Weds.

The timing is no doubt also connected to the announcement of the shortlist for Labour candidates in his constituency.

Once that was done, there was no point in him not announcing it, TBH.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Dunno really.

Nationally, a lot of people who absolutely wouldn't vote for corbyn can't really say why other than possibly something vague about (alleged) anti-semitism or 'being unelectable' because most of the media decided he was unelectable.

Don't know how much impression any local papers in the Islington patch have, and how hostile or otherwise they have been.

Can see some labour voters voting for him, some voting for the party - either through party loyalty or preferring the politics of the starmer led party, and also can see some not voting at all because they don't want to vote against either corbyn or the party. Wouldn't like to say what proportion there will be of either.

 

[Knotted]

My hunch is that with the Tories out of the picture, the realisation that Britain is effectively going to be a one party state for the foreseeable means that people are going to start looking to independently minded local/regional politicians to look out for them. Well grounded local and capable campaigners like Corbyn winning seats are going to be a feature going forward.

 

[brogdale]

My hunch is that with the Tories out of the picture, the realisation that Britain is effectively going to be a one party state for the foreseeable means that people are going to start looking to independently minded local/regional politicians to look out for them. Well grounded local and capable campaigners like Corbyn winning seats are going to be a feature going forward.

Yeah, the prospect of New, New Labour doing very well gives the North Islingtonites permission to give a sort of protest vote.

 

[PR1Berske]

From the Guardian

Jeremy Corbyn’s days of influencing Labour party policy “are well and truly over”, Keir Starmer has said, as a war of words erupted with his predecessor on the second day of the general election campaign.

Corbyn was expelled from the Labour party on Friday after announcing he would stand as an independent candidate in the 4 July vote.

The former party leader, who was blocked from standing again for Labour, said he would seek election in the Islington North constituency he has represented for 40 years.

He criticised Labour’s decision to stop local members from taking part in shortlisting candidates, urging members to “stand up and defend our rights”.

Keir Starmer at the launch of Scottish Labour’s general election campaign in Glasgow on Friday.

At a local party meeting last month, 98% of attenders backed a motion thanking Corbyn for his “commitment and service to the people”, adding it was members’ “democratic right to select our MP”.

Starmer, when asked during a campaign visit to Lancashire on Friday evening about his predecessor’s criticism, said: “I think Jeremy Corbyn’s days of influencing Labour party policy are well and truly over.”


He added: “What I’ve done is put a cohort of excellent candidates across the whole country including in Islington North, because the choice in the election … is between more of the chaos and division we’ve seen over the last 14 years, which has got us absolutely nowhere, and turning a page and a fresh start and rebuilding with Labour.

“That’s the choice in Islington North. That’s why I’m intent on selecting the best quality candidates everywhere, including in Islington North.”

Earlier on Friday, Labour announced that Praful Nargund, a local campaigner and Islington councillor, would be its candidate to run against Corbyn.

Nargund said: “It’s an honour to have been chosen as Labour’s candidate for Islington North and I look forward to the campaign ahead. I promise to be a truly local MP, that represents all families and businesses that call this special place their home.”

 

[Pickman's model]

From the Guardian

They won't be an mp of any sort

 

[what]

I find this saga interesting not on a political level but a personal one.
Having been in a party for so long and the what happened to him, how on a personal level does it feel to be running as an independent.
Not interested in political answers more interested in human responses

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I find this saga interesting not on a political level but a personal one.
Having been in a party for so long and the what happened to him, how on a personal level does it feel to be running as an independent.
Not interested in political answers more interested in human responses

I'm kind of the opposite. I don't really give a shit how Corbyn feels about it. I only care what effect his election might have on the wider scene.

 

[Pickman's model]

I find this saga interesting not on a political level but a personal one.
Having been in a party for so long and the what happened to him, how on a personal level does it feel to be running as an independent.
Not interested in political answers more interested in human responses

Political answers are human responses

 

[what]

Political answers are human responses

Yes but human responses are not always political

 

[brogdale]

Yes but human responses are not always political

politicians not noted for being able to present human responses

 

[what]

politicians not noted for being able to present human responses

I'm less interested in the sales representation that all politicians do I'm more interested in what people think when he goes home at night he feels

 

[Silas Loom]

I'm less interested in the sales representation that all politicians do I'm more interested in what people think when he goes home at night he feels

Pervert.

 

[what]

Pervert.

I know, it's not theory, so means I'm weird

 

[brogdale]

I'm less interested in the sales representation that all politicians do I'm more interested in what people think when he goes home at night he feels

Tired?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'm less interested in the sales representation that all politicians do I'm more interested in what people think when he goes home at night he feels

This is just politician-as-celebrity bollocks, isn't it? Who cares? Voters certainly shouldn't.

 

[Karl Masks]

I find this saga interesting not on a political level but a personal one.
Having been in a party for so long and the what happened to him, how on a personal level does it feel to be running as an independent.
Not interested in political answers more interested in human responses

I think someone that's been an MP since 2010 and is now leader telling a long standing constituency MP like JC his days are well and truly over is a bit nasty. He had the whip removed because they thought he was an electoral liability, but why was that? years of smears?

The whole thing is nasty. I dpn't see how JC standing now affects labour at all tbh and if his constituents want him to stand at least then why shouldn't he? If his constituency overall votes the Labour candidate in well that's their right I guess. Seems a shitty way to end a career of what appears to be good service.

 

[what]

This is just politician-as-celebrity bollocks, isn't it? Who cares? Voters certainly shouldn't.

I suppose I'm wondering how he is feeling about having been deselected from labour and now opposing a party he has been a member of for so long.
Yes there's political reasons but emotionally what is he feeling after such a long relationship

 

[what]

I think someone that's been an MP since 2010 and is now leader telling a long standing constituency MP like JC his days are well and truly over is a bit nasty. He had the whip removed because they thought he was an electoral liability, but why was that? years of smears?

The whole thing is nasty. I dpn't see how JC standing now affects labour at all tbh and if his constituents want him to stand at least then why shouldn't he? If his constituency overall votes the Labour candidate in well that's their right I guess. Seems a shitty way to end a career of what appears to be good service.

Soz what your saying is about the politics not the human reaction

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I suppose I'm wondering how he is feeling about having been deselected from labour and now opposing a party he has been a member of for so long.
Yes there's political reasons but emotionally what is he feeling after such a long relationship

Fair enough. I don't care personally. Shit happens, you get on with it. And far worse shit than this happens all the time.

He effectively opposed Labour from within during the Blair years anyway. Don't see how this should be so different.