Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

[Rob Ray]

That’s not the issue I’m thinking of, I’m assuming that the secretary is to some extent Corbyn-sympathetic, so the question is whether Labour officials outside the CLP would be aware of seeds in the data, and therefore in a position to identify misuse.

Unless they're wildly incompetent or "aw bless" levels of honest they'll have the data and pretend they don't, and keep use of it vague enough to realistically say "we've been here decades, of course we know some stuff". Even repeat errors can be written off by saying it was probably them who collated it in the first place. I think it'd be very difficult to prove GDPR (and probably whack Labour itself in the face if a proper investigation was launched - very few local groups are going to be fully compliant at the best of times).

 

[redsquirrel]

Firstly we get to kick out all those foolish enough to support his election campaign in some way. Secondly, him being in parliament he gets to keep discrediting himself rather than being viewed through rose tinted glasses - and thirdly, him continuing to exist (politically) keeps the flame alive: for moths to fly towards.

See, for me, I'm genuinely disappointed by how cautious/beige/uninspiring/unambitious Starmer is being on the domestic economic/housing front - there's very little in the 2017/19 manifestos that I've not been waiting my whole adult life for a Labour government to do.

And yet you were willing to be a member, and indeed, door knock for austerity. You were willing to be a member of a party that killed a million+ in Iraq. You were willing to re-join the Labour Party and vote for the two right wing candidates.
You're willing to be part of a party that is going to attack workers, attack immigrants. wants to increase the privatisation of the NHS and welcomes scum like Elphicke.
The only time you've not being part of the LP is when it made its the sole move to social democracy in the last 30 odd years.

I get the argument 'better pissing out than in' even if I don't agree with it. But you weren't pissing out during the one time the party moved left.
If you're going to go the above posts on the basis of supporting a centrist party is needed, ok. But let's bury the idea that you are any sort of social democrat then.

 

[nino_savatte]

Not even Blair went on a frenzied purge of the left. Starmer is going to get what's coming to him. Allez Jeremy!

 

[brogdale]

Unless they're wildly incompetent or "aw bless" levels of honest they'll have the data and pretend they don't, and keep use of it vague enough to realistically say "we've been here decades, of course we know some stuff". Even repeat errors can be written off by saying it was probably them who collated it in the first place. I think it'd be very difficult to prove GDPR (and probably whack Labour itself in the face if a proper investigation was launched - very few local groups are going to be fully compliant at the best of times).

Don't really agree with your take here Rob.
As I said earlier, I reckon Starmer's Regional goons will be very alert to this key issue for the Corbyn campaign and realise that the existing CLP data is the key asset and they will be all over this. It would only take 1 instance of a careless/naive (outside) supporter knocking on the door of 1 (Starmer) party loyalist and saying "We see that you've supported/voted Jeremy in the past..." and bingo, Regional would have their proof. I wouldn't put it past them getting some of their people in the constituency to be ready for door knocks with phones recording or taking images of the boards/phone screens that Corbyn's activists are working from.

 

[DownwardDog]

A thumping win for Corbyn would be a kick in the teeth for Starmer.

Yeah, he'll be fucking gutted as he moves into No.10 with a solid majority.

 

[MickiQ]

I don't think he will win, I certainly expect him to keep his deposit and won't be surprised at all if he comes in a decent second but what stands in his way is a simple numbers game, Other than possibly some green votes there are no non-Labour votes for him to collect. In order to win he has to take some 18000 votes (more than half) off the official Labour candidate. He does have a strong advantage over whomever he will face (non-LP candidates are wasting their time) in that he is a much better known name both locally and nationally but I'm doubtful how much benefit name recognition will be at a GE where people are choosing the next Govt not registering a protest. I don't think personal votes are really a thing, I'm sure Dennis Skinner probably had a large personal vote but he still got kicked out for a Tory in 2019.
Even if he wins what then? all that will happen is that he will sit on the Opposition benches with whatever pitiful remnant of the Conservatives remains utterly powerless to affect anything especially with regards to Gaza the one issue where he is likely to appeal to his constituents. Plus as other posters as said it will bring on a purge of what few remaining leftists there are in the LP. They should never be allowed anywhere near the levers of power of course but the LP does need them desperately to keep it on the straight and narrow and prevent it just becoming the Tories with a smiling face. I have added Islington North to my list of constituencies to watch on the day to check how he does. I wish him luck and hope he wins not least because it will be nice to see Starmer squirm a bit when he starts talking about his massive majority and his mandate from the people post the GE.

 

[Elpenor]

Starmer may be living in 10 Downing Street in a couple of months time but Jeremy Corbyn will forever live rent free in his head, with a weekend bolthole in the hippocampus of some of our more charming posters

 

[Idris2002]

Yes. The two NCO's who were there were demoted and fined, the Privates had promotion bans of various lengths and fines, and the Platoon Commander received an Unsatisfactory rating in his OJAR as well as being fined. The SNCO only didn't go to MCTC and be dismissed the service because he put his discharge papers in prior to the AGAI process got going.

Please tell me that someone said "you stupid boy" at least once during the whole shitshow.

 

[Idris2002]

I don't think he will win, I certainly expect him to keep his deposit and won't be surprised at all if he comes in a decent second but what stands in his way is a simple numbers game, Other than possibly some green votes there are no non-Labour votes for him to collect. In order to win he has to take some 18000 votes (more than half) off the official Labour candidate. He does have a strong advantage over whomever he will face (non-LP candidates are wasting their time) in that he is a much better known name both locally and nationally but I'm doubtful how much benefit name recognition will be at a GE where people are choosing the next Govt not registering a protest. I don't think personal votes are really a thing, I'm sure Dennis Skinner probably had a large personal vote but he still got kicked out for a Tory in 2019.
Even if he wins what then? all that will happen is that he will sit on the Opposition benches with whatever pitiful remnant of the Conservatives remains utterly powerless to affect anything especially with regards to Gaza the one issue where he is likely to appeal to his constituents. Plus as other posters as said it will bring on a purge of what few remaining leftists there are in the LP. They should never be allowed anywhere near the levers of power of course but the LP does need them desperately to keep it on the straight and narrow and prevent it just becoming the Tories with a smiling face. I have added Islington North to my list of constituencies to watch on the day to check how he does. I wish him luck and hope he wins not least because it will be nice to see Starmer squirm a bit when he starts talking about his massive majority and his mandate from the people post the GE.

What's to stop him taking those 18000 votes off the official Labour no-mark? For a lot of his voters he'll be "Mr Islington" and that will be that.

 

[Idris2002]

It was long overdue that Bobby Sands and others brought the aggressors to the table.

The apologists for the oppressors can do one.

I don't think it was as simple as that. The mass mobilisation around the hunger strikers was the first taste SF got of an alternative to the gun - but they stayed quite keen on the gun for many years after that.

 

[PR1Berske]

Praful Nargund chosen for Labour.

 

[lazythursday]

Interesting that Silas Loom and kebabking only objected to the foreign and defence aspects of Corbynism. While I am much closer to Corbyn on those I do think that was clearly an albatross around the leadership's neck and if we're ever going to have a left leaning government, reluctantly I think that's where principles will just have to be put on the back burner for a chance at power.

 

[Idris2002]

Praful Nargund chosen for Labour.

Meet the new boss.

 

[MickiQ]

What's to stop him taking those 18000 votes off the official Labour no-mark? For a lot of his voters he'll be "Mr Islington" and that will be that.

Maybe he will, he will certainly take some I'm not denying that but more than half? As for the second half of your statement are you sure? He's been the Labour candidate for the last ten GE's and the Leader of the Opposition at the last two (in itself certainly worth extra votes) now he isn't. The question is how many of the 34,000 people who voted for him last time voted for him because he's Jeremy Corbyn (Mr Islington) or because he was the Labour candidate? Some sure but half?
As for being a good constituency MP, I'll take your word for it since I have no personal experience but a lot of good constituency MP's lost their seats in 2019 and a lot more will this time round what's so special about him?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I don't think personal votes are really a thing, I'm sure Dennis Skinner probably had a large personal vote but he still got kicked out for a Tory in 2019.

They clearly are a thing in certain circumstances, for example when Livingstone won the mayoral election in London. Skinner lost in 2019, yes. His seat was already in trouble, though, if you look at the 2017 election result. People can be angry about something enough for any personal vote not to count for much. But if anything the angry people in Islington North are likely to be Labour supporters who hate Starmer, not ones who hate Corbyn. Then there is the Muslim demographic (approx 10%). We saw in the recent elections that pro-Palestine has its own constituency in certain sections of the population.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Maybe he will, he will certainly take some I'm not denying that but more than half? As for the second half of your statement are you sure? He's been the Labour candidate for the last ten GE's and the Leader of the Opposition at the last two (in itself certainly worth extra votes) now he isn't. The question is how many of the 34,000 people who voted for him last time voted for him because he's Jeremy Corbyn (Mr Islington) or because he was the Labour candidate? Some sure but half?
As for being a good constituency MP, I'll take your word for it since I have no personal experience but a lot of good constituency MP's lost their seats in 2019 and a lot more will this time round what's so special about him?

What's 'special' about Corbyn's case is that he is not standing for a hated incumbent or a principle that people are specifically against (the 'get brexit done' factor).

Out of the many who voted for the Labour candidate rather than for Corbyn specifically, there will be plenty who will see Corbyn as real Labour. They're not specifically voting against the idea of Labour by voting Corbyn. Much the same was true with Livingstone's win. These are the kinds of constituencies that Labour takes for granted as they lurch to the right in the 'nowhere else to go so fuck em' attitude. Here they do have somewhere else to go.

 

[MickiQ]

They clearly are a thing in certain circumstances, for example when Livingstone won the mayoral election in London. Skinner lost in 2019, yes. His seat was already in trouble, though, if you look at the 2017 election result. People can be angry about something enough for any personal vote not to count for much. But if anything the angry people in Islington North are likely to be Labour supporters who hate Starmer, not ones who hate Corbyn. Then there is the Muslim demographic (approx 10%). We saw in the recent elections that pro-Palestine has its own constituency in certain sections of the population.

I don't think the degree of hate for Starmer in the general public is even remotely what some Urbs seem to think it is and probably not enough to have any effect anywhere. As for the Muslim vote, going on your figure of 10% let's assume that all the Muslims who voted in Islington North last time voted Labour (almost certainly untrue) and they will all vote Corbyn this time (more likely but still probably not true) it only comes to about 3500 votes which is less than what the Green got last time.

What's 'special' about Corbyn's case is that he is not standing for a hated incumbent or a principle that people are specifically against (the 'get brexit done' factor).

Out of the many who voted for the Labour candidate rather than for Corbyn specifically, there will be plenty who will see Corbyn as real Labour. They're not specifically voting against the idea of Labour by voting Corbyn. Much the same was true with Livingstone's win. These are the kinds of constituencies that Labour takes for granted as they lurch to the right in the 'nowhere else to go so fuck em' attitude. Here they do have somewhere else to go.

Maybe you're right and we will know in 6 weeks one way or the other but that reads very much like a 'gut-feeling' to me unless you've interviewed the entire Islington North electorate. But you are wrong about Corbyn being somewhere else to go, win or lose he will just be a protest vote and I don't think protest votes are a GE thing.

 

[Guineveretoo]

Even if any of the remaining officers are sympathetic, they can't expect to offer data to an independent candidate and stay in post, can they?

more than that, they would be prosecuted.

 

[freshapple]

Not really - Corbyn will almost certainly walk it.

Huge name recognition, reputation as a very good constituency MP, undoubtedly a fair slice of sympathy, the two on the Lab shortlist are 'who?', and everyone knows that a bit of rebellion is good for the soul.

I can't stand the man, and I leap for joy at his expulsion from the LP, but I'll happily put £5 on his reelection with a 5,000 majority (wouldn't be surprised if it's 20,000).

Yougov from march

 

[belboid]

Maybe he will, he will certainly take some I'm not denying that but more than half? As for the second half of your statement are you sure? He's been the Labour candidate for the last ten GE's and the Leader of the Opposition at the last two (in itself certainly worth extra votes) now he isn't. The question is how many of the 34,000 people who voted for him last time voted for him because he's Jeremy Corbyn (Mr Islington) or because he was the Labour candidate? Some sure but half?
As for being a good constituency MP, I'll take your word for it since I have no personal experience but a lot of good constituency MP's lost their seats in 2019 and a lot more will this time round what's so special about him?

in 1987 Dave Nellist got 47.5% of the vote in Coventry South East as the Labour candidate. in 1992, as Independent Labour, he got 28.9% of the vote. Thats rather more than half the Labour vote and he was only Dave Nellist, a two term MP. Labour only won the seat because of the collapse of the SDP vote (probably as a 'Stop Nellist' thing)

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Maybe you're right and we will know in 6 weeks one way or the other but that reads very much like a 'gut-feeling' to me unless you've interviewed the entire Islington North electorate. But you are wrong about Corbyn being somewhere else to go, win or lose he will just be a protest vote and I don't think protest votes are a GE thing.

Sorry but you're the one going on gut feelings. Protest votes can be a thing in GEs, hence Martin Bell winning in 1997.

And voting for Corbyn doesn't have to be a protest vote. It can just be as simple as 'I like Jeremy Corbyn and what he stands for so I'll vote for him'. Much like the Nellist example above.

 

[Silas Loom]

Yougov from march

That’s interesting. Still, local appeal and the accompanying boots on the ground is likely more skewed than the national even split would indicate.

 

[zahir]

vox pop in Islington North

 

[MickiQ]

Sorry but you're the one going on gut feelings. Protest votes can be a thing in GEs, hence Martin Bell winning in 1997.

Yes a protest vote against the Govt of the time in a safe seat held by the then Govt, that simply isn't true of Islington North.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Yes a protest vote against the Govt of the time in a safe seat held by the then Govt, that simply isn't true of Islington North.

Yes, every example anyone can give will have specific circumstances. And the specific circumstances here point to Corbyn winning a strong backing.

You're talking out of your arse.

 

[kebabking]

Interesting that Silas Loom and kebabking only objected to the foreign and defence aspects of Corbynism. While I am much closer to Corbyn on those I do think that was clearly an albatross around the leadership's neck and if we're ever going to have a left leaning government, reluctantly I think that's where principles will just have to be put on the back burner for a chance at power.

I'm going to quibble with your use of principles.

For me, common defence (NATO, Ukraine etc..) is as visceral, as central a part of the socialist bit of my Social Democracy ideology/morality as universal healthcare is, or 'everyone gets a roof' housing policy, or SEN provision in Education.

For me, not believing in common defence/NATO/Ukraine etc.. is exactly the same as that cunt who burned a load of £50 notes in front of the homeless bloke. Those people have, to my mind, absolutely identical political/moral positions.

I genuinely do not see how you can differentiate between universal housing, or education, or healthcare, and universal defence - for me it's like claiming to be a socialist/social democrat because you want to build a million council houses a year for a decade, while also thinking that anyone who can't find their own cancer treatment should be flung out on the streets to provide food for stray dogs.

For me, it's just incomprehensible and utterly illogical - like a philosophy coming from a Crack pipe.

 

[MickiQ]

in 1987 Dave Nellist got 47.5% os the vote on Coventry South East as the Labour candidate. in 1992, as Independent Labour, he got 28.9% of the vote. Thats rather more than half the Labour vote and he was only Dave Nellist, a two term MP. Labour only won the seat because of the collapse of the SDP vote (probably as a 'Stop Nellist' thing)

That lends weight to it being a possibility (which I agree with) but far from being a certainty. Like I said I too wish him luck, Starmer's smug self-confidence is very annoying and this would take him down a peg but I still think it's a bit of stretch.
There may very well be a "Stop Corbyn" vote from those people who voted Tory/LD last time.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

There may very well be a "Stop Corbyn" vote from those people who voted Tory/LD last time.

All 14,000 of them. You're contradicting yourself here, though. How can you can have a vote in reaction to a potential protest vote if protest voting in GEs isn't a thing?

 

[belboid]

First report from the bookies has him at 8/13 to win. ie 'odds on'

(which is a shame, I'd have hoped to win some dosh on it)

 

[ska invita]