Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

[Sue]

I hope he wins. I do think the vast majority of labour voters are labour voters not voters for a specific MP tho.

Yeah, think it depends a bit on the name recognition of the MP too. Round here, people tend to say they're voting for Diane Abbot rather than Labour. Guess we'll see how that pans out if she ends up standing as an independent though.

 

[wtfftw]

Yes and no. A lot of labour voters are people who vote labour because there is nowhere else to go in our stupid electoral system.

That's true. The Socialist Party of Great Britain ran in islington north in 2015 and only got about a hundred votes. I guess, Corbyn can sweep those up.

 

[Silas Loom]

That would be the same Guardian that relentlessly went after him when he was leader?

I predict that he'll win and win big. Labour may not even try all that hard to stop him. But it won't be due to positive press. In the end, it will be due to his record as a constituency MP.

The one with a commitment to pluralities of “progressive” views, which still pays Owen Jones money for words, that one. There will be pro-Corbyn and anti-Corbyn articles, but that’s enough to suggest that Corbyn is a viable option, and it’s the pro-Corbyn pieces that will resonate with his constituents.

 

[Idris2002]

When Frank Dobson was picked to go up against Livingstone, he was already a made guy and a heavy-hitter. Who's been shortlisted to go up against Corbyn? A couple of no-marks no one's ever heard of.

I'd say that sounds like Labour have already written off Islington North.

 

[two sheds]

When Frank Dobson was picked to go up against Livingstone, he was already a made guy and a heavy-hitter. Who's been shortlisted to go up against Corbyn? A couple of no-marks no one's ever heard of.

I'd say that sounds like Labour have already written off Islington North.

A thumping win for Corbyn would be a kick in the teeth for Starmer.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

When Frank Dobson was picked to go up against Livingstone, he was already a made guy and a heavy-hitter. Who's been shortlisted to go up against Corbyn? A couple of no-marks no one's ever heard of.

I'd say that sounds like Labour have already written off Islington North.

I actually felt a bit sorry for Dobson. Voted against the Iraq War and tuition fees so he wasn't a mindless Blairite. Decent constituency MP, too, unlike his successor.

Still voted Livingstone, mind you. Gleefully.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

That's true. The Socialist Party of Great Britain ran in islington north in 2015 and only got about a hundred votes. I guess, Corbyn can sweep those up.

He may be too reformist for them.

My prediction fwiw is a comfortable Corbyn win but with a reduced majority.

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[freshapple]

Be interesting to see some polling

 

[kebabking]

Be interesting to see some polling

Not really - Corbyn will almost certainly walk it.

Huge name recognition, reputation as a very good constituency MP, undoubtedly a fair slice of sympathy, the two on the Lab shortlist are 'who?', and everyone knows that a bit of rebellion is good for the soul.

I can't stand the man, and I leap for joy at his expulsion from the LP, but I'll happily put £5 on his reelection with a 5,000 majority (wouldn't be surprised if it's 20,000).

 

[Balbi]

Good on him

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Strikes me that the Labour candidate may get a much better idea of the level of Corbyn support than Corbyn himself. Lots of door knocking rebuffed by a curt 'we're with JC'. If they don't know it already, they'll quickly discover how much trouble they are in.

 

[The39thStep]

Yes, I get all that, I just suspect that Islington North will attract disproportionate media interest, with at least one pro-Corbyn comment piece a day in the Guardian, and that some of the team around Magic Grandpa will be very determined and hard working, even if the candidate himself is unwilling to do much outside of his allotment.

I have the feeling that for ardent Labour Party centrists that waking up to a Corbyn victory would evoke the same response as them waking up to find that someone had left a large turd in the middle of their front room rug .

 

[Silas Loom]

I have the feeling that for ardent Labour Party centrists that waking up to a Corbyn victory would evoke the same response as them waking up to find that someone had left a large turd in the middle of their front room rug .

Not at all. And for the reasons that have already been stated by Kebab. Losing one seat in return for getting him and every member who couldn’t resist tweets of support out of the party for good is a brilliant trade.

Corbyn is the turd on the rug. And now he has assisted in cleaning himself up.

 

[kebabking]

I have the feeling that for ardent Labour Party centrists that waking up to a Corbyn victory would evoke the same response as them waking up to find that someone had left a large turd in the middle of their front room rug .

Not for me - I'd love it.

Firstly we get to kick out all those foolish enough to support his election campaign in some way. Secondly, him being in parliament he gets to keep discrediting himself rather than being viewed through rose tinted glasses - and thirdly, him continuing to exist (politically) keeps the flame alive: for moths to fly towards.

Like a self-baiting rat trap.

 

[Jeff Robinson]

Absolute crap. Starmer has been purging his "wing" of the party since he elected leader.

The ridiculous treatment of Corbyn, Abbott etc is not just a terrible anti-worker right move of the LP that you appear to support - it's stupid on its own terms.
Keeping a small disempowered social democratic rump in the LP would convince at least some that the LP can be redeemed.
Starmer's tactics to expel and remove any vestige of social democracy from the party is not going to lead to the loss of tens of MPs but it provides the Greens with a base - and that base can grow.

I think the expelling of Corbyn and co, as with so many of Starmer's policies, is about something bigger than a bit of electoral appeal here and there. These viciously anti-left positions serve the role of signalling to the ruling class, "don't worry, I'm one of you". This in turn means they won't monster him 24/7 in the press and he can reap the windfall of the collapsing tory vote.

 

[The39thStep]

Not at all. And for the reasons that have already been stated by Kebab. Losing one seat in return for getting him and every member who couldn’t resist tweets of support out of the party for good is a brilliant trade.

Corbyn is the turd on the rug. And now he has assisted in cleaning himself up.

Are you actually a member of the Labour Party , Silas?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Setting aside animosity towards Corbyn as a person, I am genuinely puzzled by animosity towards the kind of Labour party and potential govt represented by the Corbyn/McDonnell leadership. Starmerism is better?

A Corbyn-led Labour would have won this election. Any Labour leader would win because in reality it's not Labour winning so much as the Tories fucking it up. Given that, preferring something represented by Starmer, Reeves, Lammy, etc, over something represented by Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott, etc? Don't get it.

These are far from perfect people - I have problems with both Corbyn and Abbott - but fuck me look at what is there now. And expecting perfect is childish anyway.

 

[Silas Loom]

Are you actually a member of the Labour Party , Silas?

Not since the 1980s. I was a registered supporter in the early 2010s and ISTR that I paid to vote in the leadership election which Corbyn won, but I think I deregistered in disgust after that. I definitely don’t get emails from Labour any more.

I’d probably join now if I thought that going to meetings would be entertaining and logistically feasible, but it wouldn’t be, not even with time on my hands now I’m not working.

 

[Knotted]

Absolute crap. Starmer has been purging his "wing" of the party since he elected leader.

The ridiculous treatment of Corbyn, Abbott etc is not just a terrible anti-worker right move of the LP that you appear to support - it's stupid on its own terms.
Keeping a small disempowered social democratic rump in the LP would convince at least some that the LP can be redeemed.
Starmer's tactics to expel and remove any vestige of social democracy from the party is not going to lead to the loss of tens of MPs but it provides the Greens with a base - and that base can grow.

I agree with this but thinking about where the stupidity comes from... When Corbyn was leader the right had no concept at all of where his support came from, they instinctively believe social democracy is dead as a project and only has fringe support from the usual fringe lefty suspects. Remember the arrogance of the leadership that led to the Corbyn leadership or all those daft theories about the party being taken over by trots or the failed Owen Smith attempt to remove him or the incomprehension after the 2017 election? They genuinely don't understand that the left flank of their popular support is both sizeable and that it may fall away.

 

[The39thStep]

Not for me - I'd love it.

Firstly we get to kick out all those foolish enough to support his election campaign in some way. Secondly, him being in parliament he gets to keep discrediting himself rather than being viewed through rose tinted glasses - and thirdly, him continuing to exist (politically) keeps the flame alive: for moths to fly towards.

Like a self-baiting rat trap.

Haha , Youve got more plans than an insurance salesman .

Whilst you are on , was any disciplinary action taken against those soldiers who were filmed shooting at a photo of Corbyn ?

 

[Silas Loom]

Setting aside animosity towards Corbyn as a person, I am genuinely puzzled by animosity towards the kind of Labour party and potential govt represented by the Corbyn/McDonnell leadership. Starmerism is better?

A Corbyn-led Labour would have won this election. Any Labour leader would win because in reality it's not Labour winning so much as the Tories fucking it up. Given that, preferring something represented by Starmer, Reeves, Lammy, etc, over something represented by Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott, etc? Don't get it.

These are far from perfect people - I have problems with both Corbyn and Abbott - but fuck me look at what is there now. And expecting perfect is childish anyway.

The animosity is easier to understand when you consider that the differences and fault lines concern foreign and defence policy, alliances and instincts. As with a lot of historic splits in the left.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The animosity is easier to understand when you consider that the differences and fault lines concern foreign and defence policy, alliances and instincts. As with a lot of historic splits in the left.

Thanks for the answer. This at least makes sense. I suspect you and I have very different ideas regarding foreign and defence policy.

 

[editor]

The one with a commitment to pluralities of “progressive” views, which still pays Owen Jones money for words, that one.

That's how journalism works.

 

[kebabking]

Setting aside animosity towards Corbyn as a person, I am genuinely puzzled by animosity towards the kind of Labour party and potential govt represented by the Corbyn/McDonnell leadership. Starmerism is better?

A Corbyn-led Labour would have won this election. Any Labour leader would win because in reality it's not Labour winning so much as the Tories fucking it up. Given that, preferring something represented by Starmer, Reeves, Lammy, etc, over something represented by Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott, etc? Don't get it.

These are far from perfect people - I have problems with both Corbyn and Abbott - but fuck me look at what is there now. And expecting perfect is childish anyway.

See, for me, I'm genuinely disappointed by how cautious/beige/uninspiring/unambitious Starmer is being on the domestic economic/housing front - there's very little in the 2017/19 manifestos that I've not been waiting my whole adult life for a Labour government to do.

I also think there's a political problem with saying '14 years of catastrophic policy', and when asked what you're going to change, and you reply 'not much...'.

My problem with Corbyn has always been about foreign and defence policy, and his dishonesty about mitigating (the 'yes, we'll build four 30,000 ton ballistic missile submarines to keep jobs in Barrow, but they'll never leave port because I don't like nukes' thing being an example of this...).

If he made John MacDonnell Housing Secretary i'd send them both big bunches of flowers.

 

[andysays]

Same folk, same area, yeah...but loads of 'em and they tended to be the ones in CLPs that actually did knock doors.

If Abbott runs as well, I would imagine they will run some sort of joint campaign.

For those who don't know, their constituencies are literally next to each other.

 

[Silas Loom]

See, for me, I'm genuinely disappointed by how cautious/beige/uninspiring/unambitious Starmer is being on the domestic economic/housing front - there's very little in the 2017/19 manifestos that I've not been waiting my whole adult life for a Labour government to do.

I also think there's a political problem with saying '14 years of catastrophic policy', and when asked what you're going to change, and you reply 'not much...'.

My problem with Corbyn has always been about foreign and defence policy, and his dishonesty about mitigating (the 'yes, we'll build four 30,000 ton ballistic missile submarines to keep jobs in Barrow, but they'll never leave port because I don't like nukes' thing being an example of this...).

If he made John MacDonnell Housing Secretary i'd send them both big bunches of flowers.

Broadly, all this for me too, although we could have a radical policy on housing with millions of new homes (on stilts) without needing to give jobs either to Natalie Elphicke or the man who said “It’s about time we started honouring those people involved in the armed struggle. It was the bombs and bullets and sacrifice made by the likes of Bobby Sands that brought Britain to the negotiating table. The peace we have now is due to the action of the IRA. Because of the bravery of the IRA and people like Bobby Sands, we now have a peace process.”

 

[two sheds]

Not for me - I'd love it.

Firstly we get to kick out all those foolish enough to support his election campaign in some way.

What specifically do you disagree with, say, in the 2017 election manifesto?

 

[krtek a houby]

Broadly, all this for me too, although we could have a radical policy on housing with millions of new homes (on stilts) without needing to give jobs either to Natalie Elphicke or the man who said “It’s about time we started honouring those people involved in the armed struggle. It was the bombs and bullets and sacrifice made by the likes of Bobby Sands that brought Britain to the negotiating table. The peace we have now is due to the action of the IRA. Because of the bravery of the IRA and people like Bobby Sands, we now have a peace process.”

It was long overdue that Bobby Sands and others brought the aggressors to the table.

The apologists for the oppressors can do one.

 

[kebabking]

Whilst you are on , was any disciplinary action taken against those soldiers who were filmed shooting at a photo of Corbyn ?

Yes. The two NCO's who were there were demoted and fined, the Privates had promotion bans of various lengths and fines, and the Platoon Commander received an Unsatisfactory rating in his OJAR as well as being fined. The SNCO only didn't go to MCTC and be dismissed the service because he put his discharge papers in prior to the AGAI process got going.