Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

[brogdale]

They'll happily - gleefully - throw them out.

He'll win the constituency, but no one gives a fuck about that because he's the most rebellious MP in the history of the Labour party, so it's not as if the were hoping for his vote on legislation.

He's out of the LP, anyone who supports him is out of the LP, and he'll get to sit on the back benches.

The absolute living definition of a Pyrrhic victory - his personal success only brought about by the destruction of his 'wing' of the LP.

The majority who'll turn out to deliver for Corbyn will have been kicked out/left already.

I think the more interesting tussles will be over data. Corbyn's operation will have been used to having access to, no doubt pretty good, CLP voter ID data. If his team still use that there'll be some chunky GDPR issues; without it they'll be relying a lot on experience/memory.

 

[kebabking]

Absolute crap. Starmer has been purging his "wing" of the party since he got in.

Coup de grâce.

 

[tommers]

They'll happily - gleefully - throw them out.

He'll win the constituency, but no one gives a fuck about that because he's the most rebellious MP in the history of the Labour party, so it's not as if the were hoping for his vote on legislation.

He's out of the LP, anyone who supports him is out of the LP, and he'll get to sit on the back benches.

The absolute living definition of a Pyrrhic victory - his personal success only brought about by the destruction of his 'wing' of the LP.

Or the only possible "fuck you" left to the hegemony of "sensible" politicians who think that being cruel to people is somehow the right thing to do. The establishment won, they got rid of the final vestiges of anything different and filled the gap with more of themselves.

I hope he absolutely fucking thrashes the pricks.

 

[Silas Loom]

The majority who'll turn out to deliver for Corbyn will have been kicked out/left already.

I think the more interesting tussles will be over data. Corbyn's operation will have been used to having access to, no doubt pretty good, CLP voter ID data. If his team still use that there'll be some chunky GDPR issues; without it they'll be relying a lot on experience/memory.

Question generally for Labour members relating to this.

Who is the data controller? To put it another way: could the data have been seeded (to identify illegitimate use) without the CLP knowing?

 

[brogdale]

Question generally for Labour members relating to this.

Who is the data controller? To put it another way: could the data have been seeded (to identify illegitimate use) without the CLP knowing?

I'd imagine in most cases the CLP sec will be the data handler, so I don't see how Corbyn's team can have any legitimate access.

e2a: bet there's been some copying going on, though!

 

[moochedit]

I thought all candidates get a copy of the register anyway?

 

[Silas Loom]

I'd imagine in most cases the CLP sec will be the data handler, so I don't see how Corbyn's team can have any legitimate access.

That’s not the issue I’m thinking of, I’m assuming that the secretary is to some extent Corbyn-sympathetic, so the question is whether Labour officials outside the CLP would be aware of seeds in the data, and therefore in a position to identify misuse.

 

[brogdale]

That’s not the issue I’m thinking of, I’m assuming that the secretary is to some extent Corbyn-sympathetic, so the question is whether Labour officials outside the CLP would be aware of seeds in the data, and therefore in a position to identify misuse.

Even if any of the remaining officers are sympathetic, they can't expect to offer data to an independent candidate and stay in post, can they?

 

[brogdale]

I thought all candidates get a copy of the register anyway?

No the register, but the party's own Voter ID from door-knocking

 

[Silas Loom]

I thought all candidates get a copy of the register anyway?

Data on known supporters is more relevant. Targeting them for GOTV.

 

[Silas Loom]

Even if any of the remaining officers are sympathetic, they can't expect to offer data to an independent candidate and stay in post, can they?

No, but they could turn a blind eye if a phony elector (ie, a seed) gets a GOTV phone call, suggesting that the Corbynites are working from a CLP list. Which someone from Labour HQ clearly would not.

 

[brogdale]

No, but they could turn a blind eye if a phony elector (ie, a seed) gets a GOTV phone call, suggesting that the Corbynites are working from a CLP list. Which someone from Labour HQ clearly would not.

London Regional will be all over this like a rash.

 

[moochedit]

Data on known supporters is more relevant. Targeting them for GOTV.

Ok makes sense. Although they've had plenty of time to "prepare" for that

 

[Sue]

No, but they could turn a blind eye if a phony elector (ie, a seed) gets a GOTV phone call, suggesting that the Corbynites are working from a CLP list. Which someone from Labour HQ clearly would not.

If they avoid phoning people and door knock instead, there'd be no proof that they were working from a CLP list rather than the electoral register.

 

[Silas Loom]

If they avoid phoning people and door knock instead, there'd be no proof that they were working from a CLP list rather than the electoral register.

Yes. But phone bashing is totally engrained in election operations, so it would be a blow to the Corbyn team.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Struggling to see how effective Corbyn can be without the party machine tbh...add that to the fact that he's not the smartest tool and effective leader in terms of organisation...

 

[two sheds]

The absolute living definition of a Pyrrhic victory - his personal success only brought about by the destruction of his 'wing' of the LP.

Cart <------> horse

his personal success only brought about (by) the destruction of his (left-leaning) 'wing' of the LP (by an authoritarian right-wing Starmer)

 

[Silas Loom]

Struggling to see how effective Corbyn can be without the party machine tbh...add that to the fact that he's not the smartest tool and effective leader in terms of organisation...

The best historical proxy is probably Ken Livingston v Frank Dobson. You don’t really need a party machine when there’s a lot of media interest and an opportunity for Labour activists to be surreptitiously disloyal.

 

[Pickman's model]

Struggling to see how effective Corbyn can be without the party machine tbh...add that to the fact that he's not the smartest tool and effective leader in terms of organisation...

so you don't think that over the past 40+ years he's built up a network of allies and supporters in islington, people who can help him both formally and informally. i think he would have been an effective leader in a party that was genuinely interested in a collective leadership and in the labour party being a broad church. clement attlee, harold wilson, jim callaghan and indeed any other labour leaders would have struggled, perhaps far more than corbyn, in a position where they were opposed by the majority of their parliamentary colleagues and pretty much the entire british media. perhaps before you throw around allegations of not being the sharpest tool in the box again you might look in the mirror and consider whether such an epithet might be applied to you too

 

[Kid_Eternity]

The best historical proxy is probably Ken Livingston v Frank Dobson. You don’t really need a party machine when there’s a lot of media interest and an opportunity for Labour activists to be surreptitiously disloyal.

That was a mayoral election, with a huge focus on it, this is one seat out of 650...plus KL actually was very good at organising people, and had the resources to win...

 

[Silas Loom]

That was a mayoral election, with a huge focus on it, this is one seat out of 650...plus KL actually was very good at organising people, and had the resources to win...

Yes, I get all that, I just suspect that Islington North will attract disproportionate media interest, with at least one pro-Corbyn comment piece a day in the Guardian, and that some of the team around Magic Grandpa will be very determined and hard working, even if the candidate himself is unwilling to do much outside of his allotment.

 

[brogdale]

there were 14K LD & Vermin votes in Islington North in 2019, reckon a fair few might see the political advantage in voting for the anti-Starmer tbh

 

[redsquirrel]

That "unwilling to do much outside of his allotment" is more bollocks. Corbyn has always be willing to campaign, protest, get out and meet people - he's stood on god knows how many picket lines, attending how many protests or community meetings, he did all those impromptu meetings with people during his leadership fights - and in part won off the back of them.

He might not have engaged much with the Westminster machine (and even on that I'm not sure) but he's hugely hard-working in his own way.

Fucking hell, this Labour right crap is pushing me towards donating something to the nelly.

 

[brogdale]

Yes, I get all that, I just suspect that Islington North will attract disproportionate media interest, with at least one pro-Corbyn comment piece a day in the Guardian, and that some of the team around Magic Grandpa will be very determined and hard working, even if the candidate himself is unwilling to do much outside of his allotment.

There'll be no shortage of boots on the ground for Corbyn. How many have left/been kicked out? Is it 2 or 3 hundred thousand?

 

[Silas Loom]

There'll be no shortage of boots on the ground for Corbyn. How many have left/been kicked out? Is it 2 or 3 hundred thousand?

That resource may have to be shared with the Abbott campaign, of course.

 

[brogdale]

That resource may have to be shared with the Abbott campaign, of course.

Same folk, same area, yeah...but loads of 'em and they tended to be the ones in CLPs that actually did knock doors.

 

[hash tag]

It certainly could be one of the most interesting election contest

Corbyn vs Labour: inside the battle for Islington North

The national Labour leadership may be relaxed, but activists in Islington North are gearing themselves up for a contest that will be nasty

inews.co.uk

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Yes, I get all that, I just suspect that Islington North will attract disproportionate media interest, with at least one pro-Corbyn comment piece a day in the Guardian, and that some of the team around Magic Grandpa will be very determined and hard working, even if the candidate himself is unwilling to do much outside of his allotment.

That would be the same Guardian that relentlessly went after him when he was leader?

I predict that he'll win and win big. Labour may not even try all that hard to stop him. But it won't be due to positive press. In the end, it will be due to his record as a constituency MP.

 

[wtfftw]

I hope he wins. I do think the vast majority of labour voters are labour voters not voters for a specific MP tho.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I hope he wins. I do think the vast majority of labour voters are labour voters not voters for a specific MP tho.

Yes and no. A lot of labour voters are people who vote labour because there is nowhere else to go in our stupid electoral system.