Jeremy Corbyn's time is up

[Karl Masks]

Soz what your saying is about the politics not the human reaction

It's both. He's been an mp far longer than Starmer so naturally it seems off that starmer gets to dismiss the guy rather than defend his service.

 

[what]

It's both. He's been an mp far longer than Starmer so naturally it seems off that starmer gets to dismiss the guy rather than defend his service.

Not sure I understand this

 

[what]

Tired?

That is probably spot on. But why put yourself up as a candidate

 

[brogdale]

That is probably spot on. But why put yourself up as a candidate

Is what politicians do; they're addicted to the campaign

 

[kebabking]

That is probably spot on. But why put yourself up as a candidate

Still thinks he's got things to do? Ego? Habit?

When you've done something for 30+ years, it becomes who you are. Difficult to become something else...

 

[what]

Still thinks he's got things to do? Ego? Habit?

When you've done something for 30+ years, it becomes who you are. Difficult to become something else...

If this is true its seems slightly sad

 

[littlebabyjesus]

If this is true its seems slightly sad

Why? 75-year-old still wants to do the job he loves doing and looks likely to stand a good chance of continuing to do it. There are many others around his age we should have sympathy for, but not him.

 

[lazythursday]

I suppose I'm wondering how he is feeling about having been deselected from labour and now opposing a party he has been a member of for so long.
Yes there's political reasons but emotionally what is he feeling after such a long relationship

This outcome has been the most likely one for quite a long time now, so I suspect he'd adjusted. It probably feels quite liberating. He likely has a lot of the local former activists with him, so won't feel isolated out of the party. And if he wins, wow that will feel sweet - and what an ego boost, winning without the party label. Ken Livingstone ended up back in the party in the end (for a while) - so might Corbyn.

 

[Lord Camomile]

Yougov from march

Curious as to how many of those who voted Labour in 2019 would characterise themselves as 'current Labour voters'.

Likewise, how many of those 'current Labour voters' voted Labour last time.

Also, is that his constituency, or nationwide? 'cause only one of those matters...

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Regarding the historical precedents, this article details them. There are not many data points and each case is very different, so the margins of uncertainty are huge. Article thinks ability to campaign will be key. I suspect Corbyn may have an edge on many of those listed here in that regard.



Jeremy Corbyn can win in Islington North

Looking up Merthyr, the case of SO Davies has interesting parallels. He had been an MP for 20 years and had a strong personal following, stood after being expelled from the Labour Party, and won easily - Labour in second won half his number of votes.

The case of Frank Field in Birkenhead is very different. He fell out with his local constituency party (so no army of volunteers for him), which Corbyn did not do. And he came a cropper.

I would suggest Corbyn is more Davies than Field.

 

[PR1Berske]

Regarding the historical precedents, this article details them. There are not many data points and each case is very different, so the margins of uncertainty are huge. Article thinks ability to campaign will be key. I suspect Corbyn may have an edge on many of those listed here in that regard.

View attachment 425838

Jeremy Corbyn can win in Islington North

Looking up Merthyr, the case of SO Davies has interesting parallels. He had been an MP for 20 years and had a strong personal following, stood after being expelled from the Labour Party, and won easily - Labour in second won half his number of votes.

I'll also point to Blaenau Gwent.

 

[moochedit]

Regarding the historical precedents, this article details them. There are not many data points and each case is very different, so the margins of uncertainty are huge. Article thinks ability to campaign will be key. I suspect Corbyn may have an edge on many of those listed here in that regard.

View attachment 425838

Jeremy Corbyn can win in Islington North

Looking up Merthyr, the case of SO Davies has interesting parallels. He had been an MP for 20 years and had a strong personal following, stood after being expelled from the Labour Party, and won easily - Labour in second won half his number of votes.

The case of Frank Field in Birkenhead is very different. He fell out with his local constituency party (so no army of volunteers for him), which Corbyn did not do. And he came a cropper.

I would suggest Corbyn is more Davies than Field.

Nellist has run in coventry several times since but i don't think he ever got as many votes as he did that first time. He was on the council for a while though. (Not in my seat so i've never been able to vote for him).

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'll also point to Blaenau Gwent.

Interesting one. A new candidate (so not on the above list) objecting to all-women short lists, who won comfortably. Was already an AM for the constituency so had some local recognition that way.

It is a rare occurance, and each instance has its own very peculiar set of circumstances.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Nellist has run in coventry several times since but i don't think he ever got as many votes as he did that first time. He was on the council for a while though. (Not in my seat so i've never been able to vote for him).

From memory, wasn't he one of the group of MPs who paid themselves the average national wage?

Not so long ago, that kind of thing wasn't so uncommon.

 

[moochedit]

From memory, wasn't he one of the group of MPs who paid themselves the average national wage?

Not so long ago, that kind of thing wasn't so uncommon.

Yes that's correct.

 

[tim]

Williamson is not a creep: he was victimised on spurious grounds

He's a vile creep who now works as a propagandist on Press TV which is a channel of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, where not only do he and fellow creep, David Miller defend the murderous misogynistic violence of the regime: the women who protested and were killed dismissed as Zionist stooges; but they promote arcane conspiracy theories: Odessa was a Jewish settler colony. In their broadcasts he and Miller used to fawn to that murderous cunt Raesi, who got blown out of the sky last week.The fact that in 1988 Raesi organised the massacre of thousands of Communists and Socialist political prisoners wasn't a problem for Williamson. I asked him about it on Twitter once and he blocked me

Before he became an Iranian lackey, he was a Blairite MP who voted to support the Tories bombing of Iraq and the enforcement of the "No-Fly Zones" in Libya. Before entering Parliament he led a Labour-Tory coalition than ran Derby.

 

[Whagwan]

Couldn't think of anything more Starmer/New Labour than picking someone who works for his family's chain of private healthcare clinics.

 

[andysays]

Couldn't think of anything more Starmer/New Labour than picking someone who works for his family's chain of private healthcare clinics.

Who's that?

 

[Whagwan]

Prafal Nargund

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Couldn't think of anything more Starmer/New Labour than picking someone who works for his family's chain of private healthcare clinics.

It's almost as if they've given up on it already. Telegraph gleefully reporting this.

 

[two sheds]

Yeah, he'll be fucking gutted as he moves into No.10 with a solid majority.

it will be nice to see Starmer squirm a bit when he starts talking about his massive majority and his mandate from the people post the GE.

That's what happens when you get kicked in the balls

 

[two sheds]

I genuinely do not see how you can differentiate between universal housing, or education, or healthcare, and universal defence - for me it's like claiming to be a socialist/social democrat because you want to build a million council houses a year for a decade, while also thinking that anyone who can't find their own cancer treatment should be flung out on the streets to provide food for stray dogs.

For me, it's just incomprehensible and utterly illogical - like a philosophy coming from a Crack pipe.

So people are fools for wanting to actually see some move towards universal housing, education and healthcare (plus common ownership of essential services, taxing some of the wealth of the rich who have done so well over the last 45 years and particularly 14 years, and - fundamentally - an end to austerity) and you're willing to give all those up because you disagree with Corbyn on defence. He'd anyway never have got coming out of Nato past parliament, same with not reacting to a nuclear strike - they were his personal beliefs, no chance of being enacted especially because he believed in taking things forward by consensus.

I'd have thought that being happier with Starmer and everything that means, particularly his continuation with austerity and the utter fucking misery that will continue to be doled out to British people was more of a philosophy of fools that came from a Crack pipe.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

So people are fools for wanting to actually see some move towards universal housing, education and healthcare (plus common ownership of essential services, taxing some of the wealth of the rich who have done so well over the last 45 years and particularly 14 years, and - fundamentally - an end to austerity) and you're willing to give all those up because you disagree with Corbyn on defence. He'd anyway never have got coming out of Nato past parliament, same with not reacting to a nuclear strike - they were his personal beliefs, no chance of being enacted especially because he believed in taking things forward by consensus.

I'd have thought that being happier with Starmer and everything that means, particularly his continuation with austerity and the utter fucking misery that will continue to be doled out to British people was more of a philosophy of fools that came from a Crack pipe.

100% this. I'm with Corbyn on 'defence'. I'd go much further than him. But I'm pragmatic enough to know it's foolish to set that up as a dealbreaker in giving qualified support to a political project. And so is Corbyn. Of course he is. He really meant it when he said it wasn't all about him. Some people still don't seem able to get their heads round that.

People prefer It's My Party Now Starmer for whom being ruthless is easy? Fucking hell.

 

[two sheds]

I'd stay with NATO although I do feel that some of the criticism of NATO that is ridiculed in the Ukraine thread is justified, although it in no way excuses Putin.

Not sure about murdering millions of people with nuclear weapons in response to millions of British people having been murdered by a first nuclear-weapon strike. I do accept it's a bit daft saying that you wouldn't use them if you do actually have them, but I'm also not sure a country willing to use nuclear weapons on the UK would then calculate 'ah well Corbyn's said he won't retaliate so let's go for it lads lets drop that little motherfucker'.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'd like a Labour party committed to scrapping the nuclear deterrent, leaving nato, withdrawing troops from oversees unless involved in peace-keeping, and voluntarily giving up the UK's permanent seat on the UN security council. I'd like a Labour party committed to promoting a new place for the UK in the world, a genuinely post-colonial place in which international mediation through bodies like the UN is promoted, regional autonomy is respected, and foreign affairs are conducted with a sense of humility.

I'd go way further than Corbyn. But I know such ideas seem outlandish to many when to me they're the only sane thing anyone would want to do.

 

[two sheds]

I'd actually agree except if we could become neutral like Ireland say, but I think it would be like Eurovision all over again - we've fucked over so many countries that they'd be queuing up to have a go at us if they thought we couldn't fight back.

 

[The39thStep]

Not since the 1980s. I was a registered supporter in the early 2010s and ISTR that I paid to vote in the leadership election which Corbyn won, but I think I deregistered in disgust after that. I definitely don’t get emails from Labour any more.

I’d probably join now if I thought that going to meetings would be entertaining and logistically feasible, but it wouldn’t be, not even with time on my hands now I’m not working.

That’s some track record pal.

 

[hitmouse]

I'm going to quibble with your use of principles.

For me, common defence (NATO, Ukraine etc..) is as visceral, as central a part of the socialist bit of my Social Democracy ideology/morality as universal healthcare is, or 'everyone gets a roof' housing policy, or SEN provision in Education.

For me, not believing in common defence/NATO/Ukraine etc.. is exactly the same as that cunt who burned a load of £50 notes in front of the homeless bloke. Those people have, to my mind, absolutely identical political/moral positions.

I genuinely do not see how you can differentiate between universal housing, or education, or healthcare, and universal defence - for me it's like claiming to be a socialist/social democrat because you want to build a million council houses a year for a decade, while also thinking that anyone who can't find their own cancer treatment should be flung out on the streets to provide food for stray dogs.

For me, it's just incomprehensible and utterly illogical - like a philosophy coming from a Crack pipe.

Brave little Belgium. I realise that not every situation is exactly the same as 1914, but still, I think that not defending Belgium against German aggression in 1914 would've been preferable than getting sucked into WWI. Similarly, I'm against what Russia's doing in Ukraine, I hope Putin's defeated, but if the UK's commitment to defending Ukraine meant we got drawn into an escalation that ended with a nuclear exchange, I think that would be a significantly worse outcome than us abandoning Ukraine. That's not a dilemma you face with priniciples like universal housing or universal healthcare, there's no way you can be so strongly committed to the NHS that it starts a nuclear war that wipes out half of Europe.

Also, what does universal defence look like in the context of, say, 2003? That was clearly and unarguably a war of aggression, should we have bombed Washington in response? At the very least it would've meant sending arms to Hussein, if you wouldn't be prepared to arm Hussein in 2003 then you're no more committed to universal defence than anyone else.

Also a bit of a tricky principle in regards to Israel/Palestine today - October 7th was definitely an act of aggression against Israel, but I think it's uncontroversial to say that what Israel's done since then goes way beyond anything that can be described as self-defence and is now clearly a war of aggression in its own right, should we have started off by backing the Israeli reaction for the first few days, but now be bombing Jerusalem?

 

[Silas Loom]

That’s some track record pal.

I was just answering what I assumed was a friendly question.

 

[The39thStep]

Praful Nargund chosen for Labour.

Imagine my surprise