Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[danny la rouge]

I assumed I would be officially wrong on this.

Never mind. The biryani sounds ace.

 

[Anju]

The problem being that an ever-more-rapacious capitalism won't allow that. Neoliberal govt policies won't allow that, for several reasons.

1) Inside or outside the EU (itself a rapaciously neo-liberally-inclined body) the UK's economy will STILL be shored up by house price inflation, and that inflation can not be allowed to deflate, so housing supply will continue to be constrained/ghost towers will continue to be built.

2) Development and construction companies, and their investors, have their claws deep into politics - not just politicians, but Mandarins too. Take a look at Private Eye's elucidations of "revolving door" shenanigans with developers. This means policy has been constructed to favour the status quo, and not any quasi-revolutionary ideas of expropriation.

3) Our "Establishment" and the hedgies have a lot of money and credibility invested in the status quo. Turkeys rarely vote for Christmas.

I'd like to see massive change, but the chances of achieving it, inside or outside the EU, are small. They're small because our "democratic" system is not democratic. Indeed it's designed to leave the real decisions in the hands of an elite. It all needs tearing down, and true democracy by plebiscite needs to become the norm. No gods, no masters.

I know it's not really possible at the moment. Around 15,000 empty flats just in London and more shooting up everywhere. I live in Deptford and am surrounded, by the building and some of the more objectionable new residents barking about how cool it is while they show their worried looking parents, who after all got them on the ladder, their 'discovery'.

I realise it's not what most posters here believe in but wouldn't a move to PR based system be a start.

 

[ViolentPanda]

I know it's not really possible at the moment. Around 15,000 empty flats just in London and more shooting up everywhere. I live in Deptford and am surrounded, by the building and some of the more objectionable new residents barking about how cool it is while they show their worried looking parents, who after all got them on the ladder, their 'discovery'.

I realise it's not what most posters here believe in but wouldn't a move to PR based system be a start.

I'm all in favour of a decent PR system replacing FPTP, but only alongside the placing of a system of recall balloting at both local and national level, so that cunts like my MP - Chuka Umunna - can't pull the sort of shit on their constituents, that they have. There needs to be accountability, and with our present pseudo-democracy, recall seems to be the best tool, from the perspective of this member of the w/c, at least.

 

[danny la rouge]

I realise it's not what most posters here believe in but wouldn't a move to PR based system be a start.

What makes you think a proper PR system wouldn’t be popular here? I’d support PR.

However, in and of itself it means next to nothing.

 

[gosub]

What makes you think a proper PR system wouldn’t be popular here? I’d support PR.

However, in and of itself it means next to nothing.

What's your issue with the Scottish Parliament electoral system?

 

[Anju]

What makes you think a proper PR system wouldn’t be popular here? I’d support PR.

However, in and of itself it means next to nothing.

Partially because I think it's a good idea and that normally makes it a bad idea amongst posters here.

Everyone l speak with about it is in favour, there are campaigns promoting it, Urban is in favour yet somehow it's kept out of public debate. Strange.

 

[Pickman's model]

Partially because I think it's a good idea and that normally makes it a bad idea amongst posters here.

Everyone l speak with about it is in favour, there are campaigns promoting it, Urban is in favour yet somehow it's kept out of public debate. Strange.

Apart from when there was that big referendum about it

 

[Anju]

Apart from when there was that big referendum about it

Just an average size referendum, during an election?, and PR wasn't prior to that and hasn't been since, a major part of discussion in Britain.

 

[Flavour]

i'm edging towards agreeing with cupid_stunt - perhaps BJ is playing this well. obviously he's banking on *any* tiny change to the backstop looking like a huge victory which will get a "deal" through, and Macron has already suggested such a change is not impossible. the threat of no deal has indeed put the shits up the EU a little bit but as we all know, and as they all know, BJ obviously playing with a potentially large fire.

is brexit going to happen? gonna have to disagree with the long-standing view of many, including Pickman's model on this - i think we will be out on Nov 1st. Unless, unless: the MPs actually do have the capacity to block it. not sure what that would mean though, if they did. BJ can just refuse to ask for another extension even if the MPs order it.

 

[danny la rouge]

Apart from when there was that big referendum about it

Yeah, but that was AV, which is less representative than FPTP. I voted against that.

 

[danny la rouge]

What's your issue with the Scottish Parliament electoral system?

Holyrood is not the only votes.

 

[Pickman's model]

i'm edging towards agreeing with cupid_stunt - perhaps BJ is playing this well. obviously he's banking on *any* tiny change to the backstop looking like a huge victory which will get a "deal" through, and Macron has already suggested such a change is not impossible. the threat of no deal has indeed put the shits up the EU a little bit but as we all know, and as they all know, BJ obviously playing with a potentially large fire.

is brexit going to happen? gonna have to disagree with the long-standing view of many, including Pickman's model on this - i think we will be out on Nov 1st. Unless, unless: the MPs actually do have the capacity to block it. not sure what that would mean though, if they did. BJ can just refuse to ask for another extension even if the MPs order it.

I think the obstacles to a smooth exit are insurmountable in the time remaining and stand by my views we will be in the eu on 1/11 and Johnson will be out of no 10 by 20 November

 

[cupid_stunt]

i'm edging towards agreeing with cupid_stunt - perhaps BJ is playing this well. obviously he's banking on *any* tiny change to the backstop looking like a huge victory which will get a "deal" through, and Macron has already suggested such a change is not impossible. the threat of no deal has indeed put the shits up the EU a little bit but as we all know, and as they all know, BJ obviously playing with a potentially large fire.

is brexit going to happen? gonna have to disagree with the long-standing view of many, including Pickman's model on this - i think we will be out on Nov 1st. Unless, unless: the MPs actually do have the capacity to block it. not sure what that would mean though, if they did. BJ can just refuse to ask for another extension even if the MPs order it.

Bearing in mind, I did say...

I am not totally convinced, but I am starting to think BJ may well have played a blinder here…

1 – Ignoring the EU after being promoted to PM, and instead starting his GE campaign based on ‘we are leaving with or without a deal at the end of October’, putting the shits up the EU.

2 – Ignoring the Eurocrats, and going straight to Germany, who let’s be honest runs the show anyway, then France as their lapdogs, and only other country that seriously has any sort of power in the EU. He’s blown a big hole in the ‘you can only negotiate with the EU, not individual countries’ bollocks policy.

3 – The Eurocrats refused to engage in discussions regarding alternatives arrangements to the Irish border issue, until we leave. Now both Merkel & Macron have indicated they are up for that conversation, that Tusk & co, refused to engage in. FFS, Macron has even said the ‘withdrawal agreement’ can be amended, who saw that coming?

4 – Following that, not only has the Irish government now said they are up for that conversation, but even Tusk has, no doubt dragged into this idea screaming & kicking, but hey ho, he’s now in ‘that place’, because those that actually pull the strings have put him there.

5 – the 270+ page 'Alternative Arrangements' report, a document complied by a range of experts, largely based on bringing together various arrangements from across the globe, was ignored by the Eurocrats, they wouldn’t even get involved in discussions concerning it, until we actually leave.

6 – Now Germany, France, Ireland & even Tusk, as leader of the Eurocrats, wants to discuss the proposals.

Hedging my bets.

But, yeah, it does seem there's been a bit of a shift from the important countries in the EU, Ireland, Germany & France, because not only are they shitting themselves over a 'no deal' exit, but also losing out on over £30bn as well.

It's a poker game, that should have been played-out almost 3 years ago, when the EU refused to discuss our future relationship in any detail, until after we have left, May should have refused any discussions unless there were parallel talks over both the withdrawal & future relationship.

She fucked-up big style, and now the trump card is being probably played, up against a tight deadline, it's fucking scary.

 

[Anju]

Never mind. The biryani sounds ace.

Totally confused now as to how class is defined. I checked on Wikipedia and settled on Jilly Cooper's butchers definition. Sadly this only confirmed the difficulties of defining class as we have both streaky bacon from Lidl and Beechwood smoked back bacon from Tesco, the Tesco finest version as well.

Is there a definition you, or anyone else, can point me in the direction of.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I think the obstacles to a smooth exit are insurmountable in the time remaining and stand by my views we will be in the eu on 1/11 and Johnson will be out of no 10 by 20 November

I think we could end-up having another very short extension, just to dot the i's & cross the t's on any new agreement, but I reckon we will be out by the end of the year at the very latest.

If you disagree, fancy a £50 bet on it, with the server fund benefiting from the loser?

 

[Serge Forward]

This cracked me up:

• Just under half (47%) of those in jobs classified as managerial and professional
  consider themselves working class.

"I say, looks bit odd. Check how we define "managerial and professional" would you?"

The question is, do they own or control the means of production?

 

[Pickman's model]

I think we could end-up having another very short extension, just to dot the i's & cross the t's on any new agreement, but I reckon we will be out by the end of the year at the very latest.

If you disagree, fancy a £50 bet on it, with the server fund benefiting from the loser?

I'll do you a tenner, don't want to leave you penniless at new years

 

[cupid_stunt]

I'll do you a tenner, don't want to leave you penniless at new years

You are not very confident, are you?

As I wouldn't wish to make you penniless, most likely before the year end, I'll drop to just £10.

*spits in hand, and goes for the handshake*

 

[gosub]

I think we could end-up having another very short extension, just to dot the i's & cross the t's on any new agreement, but I reckon we will be out by the end of the year at the very latest.

If you disagree, fancy a £50 bet on it, with the server fund benefiting from the loser?

If had the cash, I'd take the bet.

 

[Pickman's model]

You are not very confident, are you?

As I wouldn't wish to make you penniless, most likely before the year end, I'll drop to just £10.

*spits in hand, and goes for the handshake*

Ok

 

[danny la rouge]

Totally confused now as to how class is defined.

There’s been many threads.

Class is rooted in the social relations of production. The economic mode of production is what shapes the formation of the social relations of classes.

 

[cupid_stunt]

If had the cash, I'd take the bet.

So, you are worried about losing.

 

[Anju]

Bearing in mind, I did say...



Hedging my bets.

But, yeah, it does seem there's been a bit of a shift from the important countries in the EU, Ireland, Germany & France, because not only are they shitting themselves over a 'no deal' exit, but also losing out on over £30bn as well.

It's a poker game, that should have been played-out almost 3 years ago, when the EU refused to discuss our future relationship in any detail, until after we have left, May should have refused any discussions unless there were parallel talks over both the withdrawal & future relationship.

She fucked-up big style, and now the trump card is being probably played, up against a tight deadline, it's fucking scary.

Isn't it us who will change position. The backstop will remain but be rebranded. Calling it a border agreement and telling everyone we have an agreement and once we put our solution in place we will be out and the EU can't stop us. Basically leaves things as they are but changes from us needing EU permission to leave, which seems to be the sticking point, to us being in control.

Only works if the ERG types are willing to be complicit but it's a simple speedy solution.

 

[gosub]

So, you are worried about losing.

No, fucked off with my cashflow situation

 

[cupid_stunt]

Isn't it us who will change position. The backstop will remain but be rebranded. Calling it a border agreement and telling everyone we have an agreement and once we put our solution in place we will be out and the EU can't stop us. Basically leaves things as they are but changes from us needing EU permission to leave, which seems to be the sticking point, to us being in control.

Only works if the ERG types are willing to be complicit but it's a simple speedy solution.

Basically, yes, that's what I think Johnson's position is, and if the ERG doesn't fall in line, he'll go for the GE, expecting to hoover up much of the support of the Brexit Party, and get the majority he needs to get the deal done.

It's a big gamble, and as much as I hate BJ, I have a gut feeling he'll pull it off.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Totally confused now as to how class is defined. I checked on Wikipedia and settled on Jilly Cooper's butchers definition. Sadly this only confirmed the difficulties of defining class as we have both streaky bacon from Lidl and Beechwood smoked back bacon from Tesco, the Tesco finest version as well.

Is there a definition you, or anyone else, can point me in the direction of.

Probably less to do with bacon and more to do with material realities, for instance whether you are reliant on your own labour for income, alternatively whether you have sufficient social and cultural capital (connections and so forth) that fears of poverty don't really bother you. Reckon probably a more solid barometer than what bacon you like or what job a grandparent did or whether you know how to say quinoa or whatever

 

[gosub]

Basically, yes, that's what I think Johnson's position is, and if the ERG doesn't fall in line, he'll go for the GE, expecting to hoover up much of the support of the Brexit Party, and get the majority he needs to get the deal done.

It's a big gamble, and as much as I hate BJ, I have a gut feeling he'll pull it off.

curious to know where tbe Scottish reurning officer authorisation came from...Parrellels with the last days of May, when she was adamantly saying x won't happen while in it was being done (can't remember what it was now. but read it on Order Order at time) But a public ballot on the date those Scots ERO's are talking about, granted if their were an extension might make sense...but as things stand what would be the point? Votes wouldn't be tallied til after our declared leaving date. And if the intention (of public consultation) were honourable, why that date?

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

curious to know where tbe Scottish reurning officer authorisation came from...

He said it was just contingency planning.

 

[danny la rouge]

if the intention (of public consultation) were honourable

I fear there are two misapprehensions lurking in that one short passage.

 

[gosub]

I fear there are two misapprehensions lurking in that one short passage.

You might think that....I can only suggest an audit trail.