Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[SpackleFrog]

This guy’s really good. An analysis of why the Brexiteers want to leave this year.

This is gibberish. You should be ashamed of yourself for posting.

Probably the most through the looking glass line is "The idea of replacing the PM is currently being blocked by Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the opposition." With no explanation.

How and why is Corbyn propping up Johnson and blocking a replacement PM Ming? Is Brexit actually all just about tax avoidance? Are you sure Brexiters don't just want to leave because we were supposed to six months ago and they know the longer this drags on the less likely it is that Brexit will happen?

Nice to see Wookey the racist back by the way.

 

[Rivendelboy]

He's very good.

Hates Corbyn though, fwiw

 

[Proper Tidy]

The (apparently now mainstream among cracked remainers) idea that capital wants to force through brexit is undermined by the absolute naked fact that the overwhelming majority of capital really don't want brexit to happen. This shouldn't need to be constantly and slowly repeated to people.

 

[teqniq]

Not a big fan of Toynbee but this gives some idea of the chaos now and in the future.

Brexit has turned our government into an Orwellian Ministry of Truth | Polly Toynbee

 

[redsquirrel]

The (apparently now mainstream among cracked remainers) idea that capital wants to force through brexit is undermined by the absolute naked fact that the overwhelming majority of capital really don't want brexit to happen. This shouldn't need to be constantly and slowly repeated to people.

The above video doesn't even get as far as recognising capital as an actor. Hell it doesn't even get as far as recognising the competing political interests. The "analysis" is nasty Tories doing nasty things to enrich themselves because they are nasty.

 

[Pickman's model]

Not a big fan of Toynbee but this gives some idea of the chaos now and in the future.

Brexit has turned our government into an Orwellian Ministry of Truth | Polly Toynbee

Orwell's ministry of truth was at least competent

 

[Ranbay]

 

[SpackleFrog]

The above video doesn't even get as far as recognising capital as an actor. Hell it doesn't even get as far as recognising the competing political interests. The "analysis" is nasty Tories doing nasty things to enrich themselves because they are nasty.

You forgot "and Nasty Corbyn Propping Up Nasty Johnson" but otherwise spot on.

 

[Spandex]

The (apparently now mainstream among cracked remainers) idea that capital wants to force through brexit is undermined by the absolute naked fact that the overwhelming majority of capital really don't want brexit to happen. This shouldn't need to be constantly and slowly repeated to people.

The only reason brexit is even a thing is because of a disagreement in the UK ruling class over whether the UK should align with US or EU style capitalism. The relative sizes of the pro-brexit and pro-remain factions of capital are kind of moot since the pro-Brexit lot have forced and won the referendum, currently form the government and just have to sit it out until Halloween to get the no deal brexit they want.

Guy in the video may be a prize divot, and the EU tax avoidance directive clearly isn't THE reason for brexit, but it is an example of the kind of things EU capitalism is okay with that pro-brexit capital isn't.

 

[Brainaddict]

The only reason brexit is even a thing is because of a disagreement in the UK ruling class over whether the UK should align with US or EU style capitalism. The relative sizes of the pro-brexit and pro-remain factions of capital are kind of moot since the pro-Brexit lot have forced and won the referendum, currently form the government and just have to sit it out until Halloween to get the no deal brexit they want.

I think there's a lot of truth in this, though I wouldn't say it's the *only* reason for Brexit. Unfortunately I think some of the discontent of people screwed over by neo-liberalism did end up in harness with the shock doctrine US-style re-structuring adherents who are now pushing for no-deal to maximise their success. It's a bad state of affairs and is probably about to screw people over even more than was thought when Brexit first got voted through (no-one really thought no-deal was likely then). There are some on these boards who insist that the working class are pro-Brexit while the capital is anti-Brexit, and just repeat that in the face of all the evidence of why that might be over-simplified. I haven't even really heard them explain why the party of the ruling class is so split if capital is so pro-Brexit, let alone why members of the ruling class are pushing for no-deal.

Yes, the majority of capital was anti-Brexit, but the pro-Brexit capital played much dirtier and won. Their second trick of turning no-deal into an act of patriotic self-belief is one of the most disgusting and successful manipulations of public opinion I have ever seen, and I am sure that lots of funding has been poured into pulling it off.

 

[ska invita]

Is anyone buying this No Deal bit from the Torys? Looks like pure bluster, safe in the knowledge it will be stopped and they can play the plucky anti-establishment (lol) brexiteers, winning back brexit party votes as they go. Can't see the next step in their plan from there though...the problem of delivering brexit doesnt go away

 

[Raheem]

...the problem of delivering brexit doesnt go away

It does if you can rely on parliament to step in and resolve it one way or another.

 

[Rivendelboy]

Is anyone buying this No Deal bit from the Torys? Looks like pure bluster, safe in the knowledge it will be stopped and they can play the plucky anti-establishment (lol) brexiteers, winning back brexit party votes as they go. Can't see the next step in their plan from there though...the problem of delivering brexit doesnt go away

I have trouble believing Johnson and Cummings are that clever.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Is anyone buying this No Deal bit from the Torys? Looks like pure bluster, safe in the knowledge it will be stopped and they can play the plucky anti-establishment (lol) brexiteers, winning back brexit party votes as they go. Can't see the next step in their plan from there though...the problem of delivering brexit doesnt go away

Would they have a next step in mind? It seems pretty clear that Johnson has hit the ground running at campaigning speed, so everything is geared towards winning the general election. In a sense, brexit is a sideshow to that, no? Tories exist to be in power above all else. Brexit serves its purpose by getting Johnson into power and keeping him there via an election. They then stumble on, and have no particular plans beyond stumbling on and not falling over (losing power) for as long as possible.

A general election this year that is won by this tory govt is a very very very scary prospect. That's the immediate endgame, not brexit. Then a new game starts.

 

[Ranbay]

 

[kabbes]

View attachment 180945

So that’s 308 days then?

 

[Proper Tidy]

There are some on these boards who insist that the working class are pro-Brexit while the capital is anti-Brexit, and just repeat that in the face of all the evidence of why that might be over-simplified...

...Yes, the majority of capital was anti-Brexit

That's what I said to prompt this avenue of discussion though - the overwhelming majority of capital never wanted and still doesn't want to leave. Why would capital as a whole want to leave a huge & established frictionless free trade bloc which, from birth to present, exists to benefit capital first and foremost.

Yes there is a section of capital which sees opportunity in chaos, which wants a Singapore type economy of low wage, low rights, low social spend, low tax. There are capitalists who want no deal for the purely short term position of benefit in their exposure to external and developing economy markets. None of this changes the sheer stupidity of presenting the momentum to leave at all costs as a dastardly plan by capital to fuck over labour. It is in face of all evidence. Because the vast majority of capital wants to preserve the status quo. It isn't even as if the business class, the city, the CBI, FSB etc are coy about this. They are explicit, they didn't want to leave and they defo don't want no deal.

There is loads of different motivations and factors, sometimes competing, sometimes conflicting, behind momentum to leave but it isn't a fucking stitch up or conspiracy

 

[Poi E]

Capital will adapt. There will be oligarchical opportunities available to crony capitalists under Johnson. Some competition will disappear. Capital is not that fussy.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Capital will adapt. There will be oligarchical opportunities available to crony capitalists under Johnson. Some competition will disappear. Capital is not that fussy.

Yeah of course, it will adapt and thrive

 

[Pickman's model]

Yeah of course, it will adapt and thrive

Well, it will adapt a bit anyway. Thrive? Not so sure

 

[Proper Tidy]

Well, it will adapt a bit anyway. Thrive? Not so sure

Well some will struggle some will thrive but as a whole reckon that class of people will do just fine as they almost always do

 

[Ranbay]

So that’s 308 days then?

 

[Kaka Tim]

That's what I said to prompt this avenue of discussion though - the overwhelming majority of capital never wanted and still doesn't want to leave. Why would capital as a whole want to leave a huge & established frictionless free trade bloc which, from birth to present, exists to benefit capital first and foremost.

Yes there is a section of capital which sees opportunity in chaos, which wants a Singapore type economy of low wage, low rights, low social spend, low tax. There are capitalists who want no deal for the purely short term position of benefit in their exposure to external and developing economy markets. None of this changes the sheer stupidity of presenting the momentum to leave at all costs as a dastardly plan by capital to fuck over labour. It is in face of all evidence. Because the vast majority of capital wants to preserve the status quo. It isn't even as if the business class, the city, the CBI, FSB etc are coy about this. They are explicit, they didn't want to leave and they defo don't want no deal.

There is loads of different motivations and factors, sometimes competing, sometimes conflicting, behind momentum to leave but it isn't a fucking stitch up or conspiracy

yep - as ever its a dynamic interplay of different factors and a fair bit of chaos thrown in. the idea that its part of some cunning plan by aaron banks et al is a dangerously deluded reading of how the world is shaped and history unfolds.
Yes you have people who are adapt at exploiting chaos and uncertainty to end up influencing events, being in the right place at the right time with the right message (from lenin to hitler to farage) or profiteering from it - but in only slightly different circumstances they would be lucky to earn themselves a footnote.

If anything, capital is one of the more predictable factors - it will always look to maximise capital - and that generally means swerving away from uncertainty - whilst still keen to exploit any events for its own benefit.

Brexit is borne of the dissaffections thrown up by the 2008 crash, 40 years of deindustrialisation creating social atomisation and resentment within trad working class areas, a residual strain of romantic english nationalism and xenophobia, the more atlantasist/neo conservative leanings of the right of the tory party and the incompetence of david cameron.
Tweak any of that marginally and you have remain winning in 2016 or no referendum at all - the underlying dynamics are still there - but how they are expressed might be very different.

(actually thats bollocks IT WAS THOSE RUSSIAN BOTS!!!)

 

[Pickman's model]

View attachment 180946

what's 2017 got to do with anything?

 

[isvicthere?]

The above video doesn't even get as far as recognising capital as an actor. Hell it doesn't even get as far as recognising the competing political interests. The "analysis" is nasty Tories doing nasty things to enrich themselves because they are nasty.

Must be why they are so widely considered the Nasty Party.

 

[Ranbay]

what's 2017 got to do with anything?

I duno

 

[Pickman's model]

I duno

 

[Teaboy]

I duno

Hey, that's the first accurate answer we've had to the original question in the OP.

 

[Indeliblelink]

This is an interesting watch, with some big names, obviously from a Tory angle.
Portillo: The Trouble with The Tories
My5 ep1

My5 ep2

 

[Dogsauce]

That's what I said to prompt this avenue of discussion though - the overwhelming majority of capital never wanted and still doesn't want to leave. Why would capital as a whole want to leave a huge & established frictionless free trade bloc which, from birth to present, exists to benefit capital first and foremost.

I’m not contesting this point, but I’m wondering right now why capital isn’t screaming it’s lungs out in opposition to no deal - is this acceptance, not wanting to lose favour with government, or just that the larger trans-national elements of capital will just shrug and move factories elsewhere without feeling much pain? It seems weird that the CBI types aren’t having very public spats with the administration, unless this isn’t being reported. I guess it might be that they just want it out of the way so some element of certainty returns and they can then adapt to the new environment, the limbo situation of the last couple of years can’t have offered much benefit to them either.