Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Brainaddict]

None of this changes the sheer stupidity of presenting the momentum to leave at all costs as a dastardly plan by capital to fuck over labour. It is in face of all evidence. Because the vast majority of capital wants to preserve the status quo.

The status quo is no longer an option, and most people can see that now. Even if Johnson cancelled Brexit or parliament forced him to cancel it, does anyone believe that would be the end of it? Business leaders are too pragmatic to think that. The idea of leaving the EU itself had much more mixed motivations, but the idea of leaving without a deal as a positive thing? I saw that pushed primarily by certain members of the elite who called on nationalism to back them up. I think that part of the elite have decided that causing maximum disruption to the EU-UK relationship will maximise their ability to restructure the economy. I don't think it's a conspiracy theory to say that. It's true a lot of the elite wants neither Brexit nor a no-deal Brexit, but they have played the political game badly, and the vultures pushing no-deal have played it well. Sometimes the minority element wins.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I’m not contesting this point, but I’m wondering right now why capital isn’t screaming it’s lungs out in opposition to no deal - is this acceptance, not wanting to lose favour with government, or just that the larger trans-national elements of capital will just shrug and move factories elsewhere without feeling much pain? It seems weird that the CBI types aren’t having very public spats with the administration, unless this isn’t being reported. I guess it might be that they just want it out of the way so some element of certainty returns and they can then adapt to the new environment, the limbo situation of the last couple of years can’t have offered much benefit to them either.

Think there is the germ of a development here actually. It's true that the majority of the capitalist class is anti Brexit but there is a minority that is looking for a way out of the economic crisis and is increasingly favourable to economic nationalism and protectionism rather than free trade. I've been wondering if there isn't a certain shift towards a more positive perspective on Brexit. Would fit with the US/China trade war, rise of Trump etc.

Do they really believe Johnson's no deal stuff though? I'm not sure I do. When he says you need to credibly threaten no deal, is he talking about the EU or the electorate?

I have to assume what Johnson really wants is a big majority in Parliament, a Brexit deal that is very similar to May's and just to move on. He doesn't want No Deal.

Additionally, the CBI types who are still fully committed to preventing Brexit have the ear of a lot of MP's and have this GNU thing to pin their hopes to. No point publicly arguing with anyone, business will want the politicians to take the blame for that, not them.

 

[Brainaddict]

I’m not contesting this point, but I’m wondering right now why capital isn’t screaming it’s lungs out in opposition to no deal - is this acceptance, not wanting to lose favour with government, or just that the larger trans-national elements of capital will just shrug and move factories elsewhere without feeling much pain? It seems weird that the CBI types aren’t having very public spats with the administration, unless this isn’t being reported. I guess it might be that they just want it out of the way so some element of certainty returns and they can then adapt to the new environment, the limbo situation of the last couple of years can’t have offered much benefit to them either.

The shrugging and moving for sure. A friend of my brother does HR in a company with a couple of medium-skilled factories. They are apparently sitting on 2000 P45s to hand out as soon as there's a no-deal Brexit. I don't think they're lobbying politically to stop it though - labour is cheaper in Poland (or wherever they're going) anyway. They had no doubt thought about moving their factories anyway and this just pushes them over the line. Business as usual.

 

[Proper Tidy]

I’m not contesting this point, but I’m wondering right now why capital isn’t screaming it’s lungs out in opposition to no deal - is this acceptance, not wanting to lose favour with government, or just that the larger trans-national elements of capital will just shrug and move factories elsewhere without feeling much pain? It seems weird that the CBI types aren’t having very public spats with the administration, unless this isn’t being reported. I guess it might be that they just want it out of the way so some element of certainty returns and they can then adapt to the new environment, the limbo situation of the last couple of years can’t have offered much benefit to them either.

I think different reasons/factors. Some sections of capital have accepted and adapted, either initiated or planned a quiet capital flight to ensure smooth & peaceful transition. Other sections that can't so easily accommodate are kicking up a fuss in their own way - CBI etc and various firms have all placed stuff in public sphere warning of impact of no deal and the funding for the various remain groups which are mostly related anyway is not just down to crowdfunding. Some are now seeking the opportunities no deal could open up. More prosaically, fear of a Corbyn govt seems to be cooling temperatures.

 

[Teaboy]

Some sections of capital stand to make a lot of money from it.

 

[Wilf]

More random thoughts on the shittiness of parliamentary/executive led politics/processes: whilst some of the tory ultras have voted with the opposition to knock back May's deal, this is the first time that talk of any kind of formal agreement has been floated (the temporary government to be led by corbyn or others). There's always been a remain majority in parliament, even if that's got a bit soggier with a number of them peeling off to become reluctant brexiteers given the result of the referendum. But regardless of that there certainly is a majority against no deal. But still, three years on and 10 weeks to go, they haven't found a make that into a bloc or policy. And even if they can manage to get them lined up for a temporary corbyn led government, there are a whole set of hurdles around speakers rulings, the parliament act, extending article 50 etc. In essence, Boris Johnson still has a fair chance at getting through something that even his own MPs don't want (or, to be pedantic, a better chance than corbyn has of forming an administration).

It's that gap between politics and real life - in real life there's usually a way for a group of people to just decide which telly programme they want on, which place to go on holiday, which film to watch. Not in politics.

 

[Pickman's model]

More random thoughts on the shittiness of parliamentary/executive led politics/processes: whilst some of the tory ultras have voted with the opposition to knock back May's deal, this is the first time that talk of any kind of formal agreement has been floated (the temporary government to be led by corbyn or others). There's always been a remain majority in parliament, even if that's got a bit soggier with a number of them peeling off to become reluctant brexiteers given the result of the referendum. But regardless of that there certainly is a majority against no deal. But still, three years on and 10 weeks to go, they haven't found a make that into a bloc or policy. And even if they can manage to get them lined up for a temporary corbyn led government, there are a whole set of hurdles around speakers rulings, the parliament act, extending article 50 etc. In essence, Boris Johnson still has a fair chance at getting through something that even his own MPs don't want (or, to be pedantic, a better chance than corbyn has of forming an administration).

It's that gap between politics and real life - in real life there's usually a way for a group of people to just decide which telly programme they want on, which place to go on holiday, which film to watch. Not in politics.

nonetheless i think we'll find the uk remains within the european union on 1 november

 

[Poi E]

Brexit is borne of the dissaffections thrown up by the 2008 crash, 40 years of deindustrialisation creating social atomisation and resentment within trad working class areas, a residual strain of romantic english nationalism and xenophobia, the more atlantasist/neo conservative leanings of the right of the tory party and the incompetence of david cameron.

I'd throw in a grossly centralised state, unelected head of state, unelected upper chamber, antiquated parliament, shite voting system, a feudal system and pattern of land ownership and a make it up as you go along constitution. It all makes for a country with a sell-by date long gone.

 

[Pickman's model]

yep - as ever its a dynamic interplay of different factors and a fair bit of chaos thrown in. the idea that its part of some cunning plan by aaron banks et al is a dangerously deluded reading of how the world is shaped and history unfolds.
Yes you have people who are adapt at exploiting chaos and uncertainty to end up influencing events, being in the right place at the right time with the right message (from lenin to hitler to farage) or profiteering from it - but in only slightly different circumstances they would be lucky to earn themselves a footnote.

If anything, capital is one of the more predictable factors - it will always look to maximise capital - and that generally means swerving away from uncertainty - whilst still keen to exploit any events for its own benefit.

Brexit is borne of the dissaffections thrown up by the 2008 crash, 40 years of deindustrialisation creating social atomisation and resentment within trad working class areas, a residual strain of romantic english nationalism and xenophobia, the more atlantasist/neo conservative leanings of the right of the tory party and the incompetence of david cameron.
Tweak any of that marginally and you have remain winning in 2016 or no referendum at all - the underlying dynamics are still there - but how they are expressed might be very different.

(actually thats bollocks IT WAS THOSE RUSSIAN BOTS!!!)

I think people have been actively working on the English nationalism for 20+ years, where do you think the residue comes from?

 

[Wilf]

nonetheless i think we'll find the uk remains within the european union on 1 november

I'm at the stage of not having a clue what will happen next. The date thing itself is interesting. Johnson could theoretically come to some form of new political declaration with the EU and sell that back to his MPs* and on the back of that claim a fortnight or so as a 'technical extension'. However he's been so strident about leaving on the 31st - 'no ifs and bits' - that any other kind of or longer extension is impossible.

I'd say the chances of general election are now very high, but whether brexit has happened by that point is the real issue.

* All increasingly unlikely

 

[Kaka Tim]

I think people have been actively working on the English nationalism for 20+ years, where do you think the residue comes from?

I guess i meant "persistent strain" rather than "residual" - although it maybe that the particular form of english nationalism - WW2, nostalgia for empire and a time of no black people, no feminism and no out and proud gaiety is particular with the older generation and dies out with them.

 

[treelover]

Its incredible how things are panning out, Tory M.P's possibly supporting a Corbyn led caretaker Govt, through the looking glass stuff

though it maybe they want him to 'own the disaster'

 

[Rivendelboy]

If Corbyn becomes Caretaker PM can he enact anything other than cancel no deal and enact a GE? Could he, for example, end benefit sanctions, the WCA, and Universal Credit?

I'm guessing...not

 

[binka]

I wouldn't put it past him to try and sneak full communism in through the backdoor while no one is looking

 

[Kaka Tim]

liberals exposed as utter self serving hypocrites. Joe Swinson making an impressive start of reminding everyone of that. major political miscalculation - and an interesting insight into the hubris and self delusion of the centrist bubble (see also - change UK)
Corbyns proposal is everything the remainers need and the most viable way of making it happen.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

liberals exposed as utter self serving hypocrites. Joe Swinson making an impressive start of reminding everyone of that. major political miscalculation - and an interesting insight into the hubris and self delusion of the centrist bubble (see also - change UK)
Corbyns proposal is everything the remainers need and the most viable way of making it happen.

Yep. What Corbyn has suggested is the first thing since the referendum that could possibly stop Brexit, but she don’t want it. Bring on no deal chaos and lay the blame at the Lib Dem’s door

 

[Rivendelboy]

I wouldn't put it past him to try and sneak full communism in through the backdoor while no one is looking

like a filthy whore

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

If Corbyn becomes Caretaker PM can he enact anything other than cancel no deal and enact a GE? Could he, for example, end benefit sanctions, the WCA, and Universal Credit?

I'm guessing...not

You guess correctly. If in our current bizarro-reality there actually ends up being a caretaker PM, they'll only have the confidence of the House to enact very, very specific things.

Edit: Sorry, submitted too soon. Any PM still has exec power though, but that doesn't extend to stuff that would need primary legislation. The caretaker PM would have to manage an invasion of, say, Guernsey and would have the power to do so, but getting rid of UC - not so much.

 

[ska invita]

I'd say the chances of general election are now very high, but whether brexit has happened by that point is the real issue.
* All increasingly unlikely

Not enough pointless predicting going on in the thread so I'll have a go:

1. No confidence vote in BJ in early September, which passes
2. Whoever it is who picks up the reigns gets an extension from the EU while an election takes place
3. Election process begins
4. No Deal Brexit doesnt happen
5. Tories run on an anti-establishment ticket, mopping up the Brexit vote, while the leave vote splits all over the place.
6. Tories win the election

^^^thats their plan I reckon anyhow.

 

[Rivendelboy]

Not enough pointless predicting going on in the thread so I'll have a go:

1. No confidence vote in BJ in early September, which passes
2. Whoever it is who picks up the reigns gets an extension from the EU while an election takes place
3. Election process begins
4. No Deal Brexit doesnt happen
5. Tories run on an anti-establishment ticket, mopping up the Brexit vote, while the leave vote splits all over the place.
6. Tories win the election

^^^thats their plan I reckon anyhow.

Please god no. I can't take another tory victory.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

Not enough pointless predicting going on in the thread so I'll have a go:

1. No confidence vote in BJ in early September, which passes

2. Which leads to BJ having two weeks to have a go at re-establishing confidence, or else there's automatically a General Election. So says the horrifically badly drafted Fixed Term Parliament Act (2011)

3. Nobody has a frigging clue about what needs to happen during that two-week period for someone else to gain the confidence of the House. See this report by the Public Admin and Constitutional Affairs Committee https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmpubadm/1813/1813.pdf
The most relevant paragraphs are in the summary:

The fact that the government of the day must retain the confidence of the House of Commons is the constitutional principle which determines the relationship between Parliament and Government. The Government’s authority to govern is dependent on maintaining the confidence of the House of Commons. This principle remains fundamental to our system of Parliamentary democracy. By convention the confidence of the House has been demonstrated and tested through motions and votes of confidence of the House of Commons.

The purpose of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (“the Act”) was to establish fixed five-year election cycles and make provision for early general elections to be called. Therefore, general elections now only occur, and early elections can only be brought about, under the Act. The Act removed the power of the Sovereign to dissolve Parliament, and with this the ability of the Prime Minister to call a general election at a time of their choosing or following a vote of no confidence in the House of Commons.

The Act changed the mechanisms by which an early general election can be brought about. Section 2 of the Act provides for two means by which the House of Commons can bring about an early general election. Section 2(1) allows the House of Commons to call a general election if at least two thirds of all members vote (434 in the current House) in favour. Section 2(3) established that a general election can be brought about following a vote of no confidence. If the House passes the motion “That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government”, a 14-day period begins, and at the end of this period if the motion “That this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government” is not passed a general election will be called.

Section 2 establishes the exact form and wording of statutory motions which engage the provisions of the Act, meaning that only a no confidence motion as set out in the Act can bring about a general election.

The Act provides no guidance on what occurs during the 14-day period following an Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 no confidence motion being passed. As the Clerk of the House told us, what occurs during this period is a matter politics, and not of procedure. Evidence to this inquiry and the Cabinet Manual set out that the Prime Minister would be expected to continue in office unless someone else could command the confidence of the House. If someone else could command the confidence of the House, the Prime Minster would be expected to resign. Not doing so would risk drawing the Sovereign into the political process, something the Cabinet Manual is very clear it intends to avoid. At any point during this period, a motion of confidence in Her Majesty’s Government under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 could be put down and that that would prevent the election. After 14 days a general election would automatically follow.

4. Profit???

 

[SpackleFrog]

There's always been a remain majority in parliament, even if that's got a bit soggier with a number of them peeling off to become reluctant brexiteers given the result of the referendum. But regardless of that there certainly is a majority against no deal. But still, three years on and 10 weeks to go, they haven't found a make that into a bloc or policy. And even if they can manage to get them lined up for a temporary corbyn led government, there are a whole set of hurdles around speakers rulings, the parliament act, extending article 50 etc.

This is true but that could well be because there will be a massive political cost to Parliament overriding/collapsing the govt to prevent no deal. At the very least they need to minimise the political cost of doing it, so they need to wait until the last minute and then they can say it was the only option. They could have done it before I reckon.

Its incredible how things are panning out, Tory M.P's possibly supporting a Corbyn led caretaker Govt, through the looking glass stuff

though it maybe they want him to 'own the disaster'

Would be a nice bonus for them if Corbyn is the face of stopping Brexit.

 

[ska invita]

Please god no. I can't take another tory victory.

tell me about it
i wonder if George Galloway will back Boris

2. Which leads to BJ having two weeks to have a go at re-establishing confidence, or else there's automatically a General Election. So says the horrifically badly drafted Fixed Term Parliament Act (2011)

I think they want the election...they won't stall it. theyre campaigning now and obviously cant do much with a majority of 1

 

[Rivendelboy]

The only person Galloway will back is the person he sees in the mirror, or possibly Steve Bannon, whom he was gladhanding earlier this year.

Given the Libdems are only good for splitting the vote, I don't fancy betting against a tory government. Their refusal to stand aside kept Rudd in position.

Fuck it all

 

[ska invita]

I think the LibDems will fall in line regarding the confidence vote etc - reluctantly - they're busy positioning themselves as Not Corbyn At All to get the Remain Corbyn Haters vote, and appeal to the Tory splitters. Electioneering

 

[Humberto]

I wonder how united the Tories are in the parliamentary party, the membership and their media and how sure their potential voters are? I think the Tories are vulnerable and can be kicked out if 'Corbyn will destroy the economy' and 'Brexit bertrayal' are the key clashing points, if we are indeed going to get a snap election in Nov/Dec.

 

[Humberto]

A Tory administered Brexit will likely be a disaster and this bloc will crumble, with Labour waiting in the wings: OR they fail to get it through and lose an election in its wake... with Labour waiting in the wings. I said the other day that I thought the Tories would win a snap election, but I also think it's all there for the taking for Labour if they get it right and are prepared properly for it all.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I wonder how united the Tories are in the parliamentary party, the membership and their media and how sure their potential voters are? I think the Tories are vulnerable and can be kicked out if 'Corbyn will destroy the economy' and 'Brexit bertrayal' are the key clashing points, if we are indeed going to get a snap election in Nov/Dec.

If they succeed in doing what they tried to do last time and make it a Brexit election and paint Corbyn as betraying the referendum, I think they win.

 

[Humberto]

If they succeed in doing what they tried to do last time and make it a Brexit election and paint Corbyn as betraying the referendum, I think they win.

Although they fucked that up remember, with Corbyn and Labour well down in the likely running.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Although they fucked that up remember, with Corbyn and Labour well down in the likely running.

This time Corbyn has been pushed far enough towards Remain I don't see it happening.