Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[andysays]

...Another extension highly likely id have thought - but it may come with the EU insisting it is conditional on a GE or 2nd ref.
Or they make it clear that if they grant one - there will be no further extensions and it is time to piss or get off the pot wrt brexit.

We might wonder why the EU has already granted two extensions, the second at least against the wishes of some of their members. I suggest that they (or significant numbers of them) are also afraid of no deal.

Given that they've already agreed twice to extend, with no real conditions, I can't see in principle why they wouldn't make it three in a row.

Rather than the EU denying a third extension, I think it's more likely at this stage that the new PM won't ask for one and we will leave in October, deal or no deal.

 

[Pickman's model]

We might wonder why the EU has already granted two extensions, the second at least against the wishes of some of their members. I suggest that they (or significant numbers of them) are also afraid of no deal.

Given that they've already agreed twice to extend, with no real conditions, I can't see in principle why they wouldn't make it three in a row.

Rather than the EU denying a third extension, I think it's more likely at this stage that the new PM won't ask for one and we will leave in October, deal or no deal.

so proving that johnson really did mean 'fuck business' when he said 'fuck business'

i suspect the tenure of any prime minister who takes us down the no deal path will be brief indeed.

 

[MrCurry]

i suspect the tenure of any prime minister who takes us down the no deal path will be brief indeed.

Possibly, but it would surely depend on what happened in the period shortly afterwards. If a no-deal exit caused such ructions that it led to a very rapidly agreed trading deal on better terms than the EU had offered before, then the PM who took that route would no doubt do well out of it.

If on the other hand it was a calamitous clusterfuck which forced the UK to go cap in hand and beg to be let back into the EU on less favourable terms than before, then yeah..

 

[gosub]

Aiwa u

None of i people are not /]
I8
K i >8ioiioii8u9phh

 

[Cid]

Nah, there is always going to be face element to this... the eu will give a lot of latitude, but if you’ve got Johnson or whoever trying to use no deal as leverage I suspect they’ll just say fuck off or offer some kind of May minus.

 

[Cid]

Aiwa u

Sir, I disagree.

 

[Pickman's model]

Possibly, but it would surely depend on what happened in the period shortly afterwards. If a no-deal exit caused such ructions that it led to a very rapidly agreed trading deal on better terms than the EU had offered before, then the PM who took that route would no doubt do well out of it.

If on the other hand it was a calamitous clusterfuck which forced the UK to go cap in hand and beg to be let back into the EU on less favourable terms than before, then yeah..

given that the brexit process has thus far been a calamitous clusterfuck i see no reason for the remainder to be different

 

[brogdale]

Looks like a smart move that's consistent with their conference position and has the potential to fuck up some of the tory leadership offers.

View attachment 173902

Lost 298 : 309

So that's 309 MPs determined to keep ND open.

 

[Mr Moose]

Lost 298 : 309

So that's 309 MPs determined to keep ND open.

I think more wholly determined to keep the Govt in some sort of control. Could be a different outcome in September.

 

[agricola]

I think more wholly determined to keep the Govt in some sort of control. Could be a different outcome in September.

Indeed, and of course the Tory whips office have usually been able to make around a couple of hundred MPs vote for absolutely anything - however ludicrous. 196 of them thought May's deal was fantastic back in January, with 314 having confidence in the Government she led the day afterwards (3 of which left citing they had no confidence in her a month later); 281 of them had confidence in Neville Chamberlain as PM after Narvik.

 

[cupid_stunt]

It was a fucking dumb move by Labour, the timing wasn't right, and now they are left with egg on their faces.

 

[brogdale]

I think more wholly determined to keep the Govt in some sort of control. Could be a different outcome in September.

Don't think the two are distinguishable or mutually exclusive, tbh. They have just voted to keep ND open.

 

[brogdale]

It was a fucking dumb move by Labour, the timing wasn't right, and now they are left with egg on their faces.

Not convinced about that. No harm in an opposition trying to oppose and the margin was not great. But...most importantly, politically Corbyn can point to a key attempt to thwart ND.

 

[agricola]

It was a fucking dumb move by Labour, the timing wasn't right, and now they are left with egg on their faces.

Not really - for all the talk of timing, there aren't that many days left to do what they tried to today.

 

[brogdale]

Why the motion failed:

 

[gosub]

Sir, I disagree.

Talk to my pocket coz the rest of me hasn't got a clue

 

[not-bono-ever]

.

 

[Proper Tidy]

View attachment 174037 .

Tbh fully on board with a minority Tory govt standing aside for labour candidates in key constituencies, great

 

[teqniq]

Looks like something out of Viz.

 

[not-bono-ever]

It’s from the pointless letters fb page

 

[Sprocket.]

If the Brexit debacle has proven anything, it’s how clueless a large section of the population are regarding the Westminster political bubble.

 

[Ranbay]

 

[andysays]

If the Brexit debacle has proven anything, it’s how clueless a large section of the population are regarding the Westminster political bubble.

Alternatively, it's demonstrated how clueless a large section of the Westminster political bubble is regarding much of the wider population (although that was pretty obvious even before the Brexit debacle)

 

[Sprocket.]

Alternatively, it's demonstrated how clueless a large section of the Westminster political bubble is regarding much of the wider population (although that was pretty obvious even before the Brexit debacle)

I concur.

 

[Mr Moose]

Alternatively, it's demonstrated how clueless a large section of the Westminster political bubble is regarding much of the wider population (although that was pretty obvious even before the Brexit debacle)

If the Brexit debacle has proven anything, it’s how clueless a large section of the population are regarding the Westminster political bubble.

In a situation where you can only agree with possibly half of either group and more likely only a third then, yes, everyone thinks everyone else is clueless. Not really moving anything on.

 

[brogdale]

I see Stewart reckons he'll set up an alternative Parliament in the Methodists' place over the road!

lol, fighting talk.

 

[Ranbay]

The EU : You have six months, don't waste it!

The Tory Party: Hold my Camberwell Carrot.......

 

[Duncan2]

I was marvelling at his (Stewart's) overweening ambition until I googled him and noted that he too is a scion of Eton College.

 

[Ranbay]

 

[Poot]

I was marvelling at his (Stewart's) overweening ambition until I googled him and noted that he too is a scion of Eton College.

It's not even ambition anymore is it? It's a sort of bored acceptance that when such a post becomes available, one ought to put oneself forward, because it's probably one's duty. Or something.