Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Mr Moose]

Come on. There has been about 5 incidents of milkshake being lobbed at politicians while the Brexit Party has led every poll for two months and the largest demos we've seen in last couple of years, extinction rebellion aside, have all been right wing pro brexit

The context was Cohen’s fancy that Remainers are about to get heated on the streets. Unless Parliament is suspended, this is likely to be way too tame to elicit much of a reaction.

 

[Proper Tidy]

The context was Cohen’s fancy that Remainers are about to get heated on the streets. Unless Parliament is suspended, this is likely to be way too tame to elicit much of a reaction.

Ah sorry, fair enough - agree that (given the remain constituency) unlikely to see them booting off

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

.

 

[philosophical]

 

[belboid]

blimey, I don't think anyone has mentioned the Irish border before, thanks for pointing it out

 

[Kaka Tim]

25% of electorate backing a party that wants brexit at any cost and has no other policies ffs. Come on now.

25% tops. And could well be less. And it doesn't denote any political action other than voting. you also claimed they had staged "some of the biggest demos in years" but they haven't - there is not big active popular movement for brexit. Its predominately isolated, fucked off older people who are not organised in any meaningful way.

 

[Dogsauce]

E.g. Farage’s grand march, the complete failure of Yellow Vests to get any traction in this country. I don’t think it’s complacent to not be scared at the moment.

I’m sure a lot of those advocating no deal/walking away have chosen that option because they’re bored sick of the process so far, a position I have sympathy with.

 

[redsquirrel]

The two most electorally successful hard-right parties in the UK have both been in the past 10-15 years. There's still a considerable way to go but the BP could be more successful still.

Yet even if it fails that doesn't mean that it's voters don't exist, to simply dismiss them as fucked off older people is both incorrect and short-sighted, you only have to look at the FN/NR or AfD to see that. The hard-right vote is not going be a majority in Western European counties, it is going to struggle to get 30+% but it is becoming normalised and entrenched.

 

[Proper Tidy]

25% tops. And could well be less. And it doesn't denote any political action other than voting. you also claimed they had staged "some of the biggest demos in years" but they haven't - there is not big active popular movement for brexit. Its predominately isolated, fucked off older people who are not organised in any meaningful way.

1 that isn't a quote of anything I've said
2 whether you like it or not, it's best to have some sort of grip on the political reality

 

[Kaka Tim]

1 that isn't a quote of anything I've said
2 whether you like it or not, it's best to have some sort of grip on the political reality

the largest demos we've seen in last couple of years, extinction rebellion aside, have all been right wing pro brexit

thats what you said. And its not true.

and what political reality do i not have a grip on?

 

[Proper Tidy]

thats what you said. And its not true.

and what political reality do i not have a grip on?

It isn't what I said as a quick scroll back a few posts would show you and this probably demonstrates my point about grip and reality tbh

 

[redsquirrel]

Also if the UK does not leave the EU the hard right will receive a major boost.

 

[Proper Tidy]

It's ok, it's just some old people who will knock it on the head when countryfile starts, everything is absolutely fine

 

[Kaka Tim]

It isn't what I said as a quick scroll back a few posts would show you and this probably demonstrates my point about grip and reality tbh

its a direct quote - post 27949

 

[Proper Tidy]

the largest demos we've seen in last couple of years, extinction rebellion aside, have all been right wing pro brexit

Actually there was one large remain demo but point stands

"some of the biggest demos in years"

its a direct quote - post 27949

 

[Kaka Tim]

the point is that the argument about some sort of huge explosion of anger if - when - brexit doesn't happen (e.g. after a 2nd ref) is being much exaggerated - and that is born out by the lack of any significant organsied political action beyond people voting for the brexit party

 

[redsquirrel]

I've heard the term 'remain and reform' quite a bit to be fair, clearly Watson has borrowed it. It seems to be an attempt to deal with that, but I haven't seen anyone say what it is that should be reformed or how it should be done.

Not even attempting 'reform' now,

the only place to be is strongly pro-Europe.

I don’t support Europe despite being socialist; I support Europe because I am a socialist.

We are still scared to tell the truth about Europe...The European Union is not something to apologise for. It is a Good thing with a capital ‘g’

 

[Kaka Tim]

so where and when were the big pro brexit demos?

 

[Proper Tidy]

so where and when were the big pro brexit demos?

Just some old people, probably got confused and lost bless them

 

[redsquirrel]

the point is that the argument about some sort of huge explosion of anger if - when - brexit doesn't happen (e.g. after a 2nd ref) is being much exaggerated - and that is born out by the lack of any significant organsied political action beyond people voting for the brexit party

Is anyone on U75 arguing that there will be a 'huge explosion of anger'? I agree that there isn't going to be mass streetfighting if the UK doesn't leave the EU, but there will be another round of growth and entrenchment of the hard-right.

 

[Mr Moose]

Also if the UK does not leave the EU the hard right will receive a major boost.

It’s already had the boost.

Why should leaving the EU now satiate an electorate nearly 25% of whom would back an anti-Islamic party? That has internalised a message that the views of ethnic minorities, the Scots and socialists are inimical to their progress? That considers that populist, overwhelmingly white English and Welsh nationalism is the route to a win?

 

[Mr Moose]

Just some old people, probably got confused and lost bless them

To be fair, although it was a big news splash that’s not massive. And yes maybe not all old, but pretty homogeneous as was noted.

 

[Mr Moose]

It's ok, it's just some old people who will knock it on the head when countryfile starts, everything is absolutely fine

Let’s be honest CF is a good show.

 

[redsquirrel]

It’s already had the boost.

The growth of hard right is the outcome of 40 years of neo-liberalism not the referendum. The UK leaving the EU won't cause the hard right to vanish in a puff of smoke but it is absurd to argue that not leaving won't give it a boost, for goodness sake we've just seen the BP almost take a Westminster seat.

 

[Pickman's model]

The growth of hard right is the outcome of 40 years of neo-liberalism not the referendum. The UK leaving the EU won't cause the hard right to vanish in a puff of smoke but it is absurd to argue that not leaving won't give it a boost, for goodness sake we've just seen the BP almost take a Westminster seat.

You don't think it'll get a boost if we leave?

 

[SpackleFrog]

The growth of hard right is the outcome of 40 years of neo-liberalism not the referendum. The UK leaving the EU won't cause the hard right to vanish in a puff of smoke but it is absurd to argue that not leaving won't give it a boost, for goodness sake we've just seen the BP almost take a Westminster seat.

It's almost like the same people who have been arguing for neo-liberal policies for forty years are demanding that we need to continue with neo-liberalism instead of thinking about what they've done.

 

[SpackleFrog]

You don't think it'll get a boost if we leave?

Why would it? The far right has been quite reliant on the spectre of the EU to build politically for a very long time. It would be more likely to experience a boost if we get some sort of soft brexit that they can paint as a betrayal. Actually leaving would force them to deal more directly with politics - UKIP's tack towards a more virulently racist/reactionary politics after the referendum probably shows what direction they would go in and how much success they would have. The Brexit Party is a viable vehicle now but if its name was redundant and they didn't have the MEP cash, not so much.

 

[agricola]

Why would it? The far right has been quite reliant on the spectre of the EU to build politically for a very long time. It would be more likely to experience a boost if we get some sort of soft brexit that they can paint as a betrayal. Actually leaving would force them to deal more directly with politics - UKIP's tack towards a more virulently racist/reactionary politics after the referendum probably shows what direction they would go in and how much success they would have. The Brexit Party is a viable vehicle now but if its name was redundant and they didn't have the MEP cash, not so much.

I doubt it - they'll just blame the mess that follows on everyone else and people will still lap it up.

 

[redsquirrel]

You don't think it'll get a boost if we leave?

Not electorally. If the UK leaves the EU I'd expect the BP vote to fall back significantly (as the UKIP vote did post referendum). In the wider political sense as long as neo-liberalism is the name of the game the hard right is going to grow.

Don't get me wrong I'm not arguing that the UK leaving the EU is the, or even an, answer to the growth of the hard right, it isn't (the only answer is to help develop working class organisation and activity). But not leaving the EU is going to act as a draw to hard-right politics.

 

[Pickman's model]

Why would it? The far right has been quite reliant on the spectre of the EU to build politically for a very long time. It would be more likely to experience a boost if we get some sort of soft brexit that they can paint as a betrayal. Actually leaving would force them to deal more directly with politics - UKIP's tack towards a more virulently racist/reactionary politics after the referendum probably shows what direction they would go in and how much success they would have. The Brexit Party is a viable vehicle now but if its name was redundant and they didn't have the MEP cash, not so much.

So the great rise in racist attacks and abuse in the summer of 2016, you put that down to the fact we hadn't then left. And it's not exactly subsided You think that genie's going back in the bottle?