Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[danny la rouge]

it's the first unicorn thing i've posted so i've two more left before the mods can step in

Three chimeras and you’re out.

 

[Pickman's model]

Three chimeras and you’re out.

chim-chimera chim-chimera chim-chim-er-ah

 

[SpackleFrog]

it's the first unicorn thing i've posted so i've two more left before the mods can step in

Don't think of it as an enforcable rule but an achievable standard.

 

[William of Walworth]

I think? I agree with what Kaka Tim is posting than what Smokeandsteam is posting.
Good discussion though

Economics is far from my strong suit , but one of the main reasons I'm (still) remain-minded/anti-Brexit is that I'm completely sceptical/pessimistic about any chance whatsoever of radical Left changes post-Brexit (especially if it ends up as hard Brexit or no deal).

Most of the above is because of who'll be in charge in practice of what happens after Brexit.

Please don't read this as a Euro-Fanboi post though -- from this thread and links, I've found out a lot more about the sound criticisms that the EU deserve, than I used to be aware of.

 

[teuchter]

Does anyone else have brexit withdrawal symptoms? The last few days, the news just has news stuff on it instead of a new installment in the brexit chaos soap opera.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Does anyone else have brexit withdrawal symptoms? The last few days, the news just has news stuff on it instead of a new installment in the brexit chaos soap opera.

Yes.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Yeah a bit.

 

[Supine]

It's a refreshing breather. Don't worry folks season 3 of brexit will be released soon.

 

[Yossarian]

Should get busy again around the first week in October.

 

[Sprocket.]

It's a refreshing breather. Don't worry folks season 3 of brexit will be released soon.

I might record it and binge watch it over Christmas. If we still have electricity!

 

[Ranbay]

 

[SpackleFrog]

It is sort of frustrating... Like, I'm used to regular news updates which are to be discussed. I'm jonesing for a hit.

 

[SpackleFrog]

"“These elections have proven to be rich hunting grounds for Nigel Farage’s brand of extreme rightwing politics before and may be again,” Beckett said. “But the message of this poll is loud and clear: it suggests that if anyone can stop Farage winning it is Labour – and only if we back [a] people’s vote.”

Beckett, a former foreign secretary, said that if Labour hedged its bets and backed “another form of Brexit, [then] Labour loses voters and Farage will storm to first place”.

The YouGov poll of 1,855 voters on Monday and Tuesday puts Farage’s Brexit party on 27%, followed by Labour on 22% and the Conservatives on 15%, though a high proportion of people said they did not know whom they would vote for or that they would not vote."

EU elections: Farage will win unless Labour backs remain, says Beckett

I can't even explain the logic here. Madness.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

I can't even explain the logic here. Madness.

i think she means "people will vote for brexity parties not us because we're too brexity, we must be less brexity so people don't vote for parties that are more brexity than us"

 

[Teaboy]

For the European elections that probably could be some mileage in being very soft Brexit / 2nd ref. Those voters who bother to turn up are going to vote solely on the ongoing Brexit process and the outcome they want. In isolation it probably wouldn't be a bad tactic, however this isn't a vacuum and for the wider picture it could be a very dangerous tactic for Labour.

 

[andysays]

Beckett is a Remain and People's Vote supporter, isn't she? Hardly surprising she's trying to argue that there's some electoral necessity in adopting her preference as party policy.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

For the European elections that probably could be some mileage in being very soft Brexit / 2nd ref. Those voters who bother to turn up are going to vote solely on the ongoing Brexit process and the outcome they want. In isolation it probably wouldn't be a bad tactic, however this isn't a vacuum and for the wider picture it could be a very dangerous tactic for Labour.

Really St Corbs should come out and say Labour will have nothing to do with this pile of plop.

 

[gosub]

 

[SpackleFrog]

Beckett is a Remain and People's Vote supporter, isn't she? Hardly surprising she's trying to argue that there's some electoral necessity in adopting her preference as party policy.

Sure but she should at least try to justify it.

 

[Wolveryeti]

I can't even explain the logic here. Madness.

Is it so mad to think that defecting Lab Leavers would be more than replaced by harder Remainers from smaller parties? The EU voting system is a bit more proportional than FPTP but will still dick all over a Remain vote spread across many party groupings, hence much potential for tactically voting Lab if it plumps for Remain.

 

[xenon]

Beckett's argument makes no sense to me.

Labour have much to lose if they come out in favour of remain now. And if they go hard brexity, they risk losing their remain minded voters to Libdem / no vote.

Brexit party can mop up the angry McAngryy's and split votes from UKIP and Tory as well as Labour.

Libdem is the remainers alternative already.

The PV lot really do seem to be in a bubble and prone to hubris.

 

[Kaka Tim]

dunno - euro elections have a lot lower turn out so only the most politically engaged and motivated turn out. Labour going remain - plus the large and motivated remain campaign - would potentially see them do well in the euros - and fuck over the chuk-ups.
But labour have to think about more than the Euro elections - and how this stance would play out is a different ball game.
TBH - i think labours positioning is less about what voters might do and more about keeping the party on the same page. A big chunk of labour mps are against a 2nd ref and a push for a harder remain stance - i.e 2nd ref - could split the party.

 

[teuchter]

Graphs and stuff

Polling analysis: The full extent of Britain's division brutally revealed

 

[Teaboy]

I don't think I've ever seen 'hard remain' used as a phrase before. If hard leave is leave every aspect of the EU without any deal what does hard remain mean? Schengen and the Euro as well?

 

[teuchter]

Not new but this has some interesting numbers

For the 'but what about Greece' people: this graph may be of interest (Greece is EL)



What's notable is how little this seems to tally up with the results of a 2016/17 survey

 

[Dogsauce]

2016/17 there was the migrant crisis and associated shit-stirring by right wing populists and organised trolls, so I’d guess that’s what’s hitting the numbers on polling then. The leave vote was a beneficiary of this - think Cameron was a bit unlucky with his referendum gamble, taken in a different time he’d have probably got away with it.

Suspect there will be some methodology factors too - what was the question and in what context was it placed? Polls are seldom neutral.

(First poll in teuchter ’s post is from Nov/Dec 2018 if that’s not clear)

 

[teuchter]

Surprising it changed so much though - in countries like Greece going from about a third to comfortably over half of respondents.

Maybe the 'neutral' category was named differently in each questionnaire.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Is it so mad to think that defecting Lab Leavers would be more than replaced by harder Remainers from smaller parties? The EU voting system is a bit more proportional than FPTP but will still dick all over a Remain vote spread across many party groupings, hence much potential for tactically voting Lab if it plumps for Remain.

Yes, it's completely mad. The hardcore remainiacs won't vote Labour anyway and the majority will either not vote or vote for anti EU parties.

 

[Teaboy]

Yes, it's completely mad. The hardcore remainiacs won't vote Labour anyway and the majority will either not vote or vote for anti EU parties.

If Labour came out on a V. pro remain stance it would surely win a lot of votes at the EU elections? Its going to be a single issue vote and its a shot to nothing so people who would never consider voting for Corbyn could vote Labour at these elections.

It would still be a terrible tactic but it would surely bring them a decent level of success at the EU elections.

 

[killer b]

Labour's EU poll support seems to be holding up ok on the polls they've done on the issue so far - I don't think they need to go chasing the FBPE vote tbh.