Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[kabbes]

Why be passive aggressive when you can be aggressive aggressive?

Who’s that then? Or are you just going to passively aggressively hint at it?

 

[kabbes]

Solidarity are against it.

As for what your country does? That's up to them and you. I dont believe Brexit will benefit ordinary workers in the UK...you obviously believe that the UK will be a better place for workers once the UK leaves the EU...but nobody will know for sure until the UK has left.

I don’t think that the U.K. will be a better place for workers once Brexit has happened. I merely think the opportunity is in place for it to become so. I also think that you are simply seeing cause and effect in action — when people’s standard of living is systematically undermined by neoliberalism— including the actions of the Irish government — they take action, and those actions can be chaotic and even contradictory. Complaining about this is just pissing in the wind if you weren’t doing anything in the first place about the causes that are being reacted to. And I have no confidence at all in that regard in anybody who thought the EU was somehow anti-Thatcherite.

 

[Baronage-Phase]

I don’t think that the U.K. will be a better place for workers once Brexit has happened. I merely think the opportunity is in place for it to become so. I also think that you are simply seeing cause and effect in action — when people’s standard of living is systematically undermined by neoliberalism— including the actions of the Irish government — they take action, and those actions can be chaotic and even contradictory. Complaining about this is just pissing in the wind if you weren’t doing anything in the first place about the causes that are being reacted to. And I have no confidence at all in that regard in anybody who thought the EU was somehow anti-Thatcherite.

I think you'd have to have lived in Ireland and seen generation after generation leave in order to get any kind of basic work to possibly understand how people see the EU as something that has been good for the country and at the same time see that we are by no means perfect.
And the whole tax thing is a problem.....the EU did fine Apple on that...and they'll probably fine more big businesses. I've no doubt the whole tax haven thing will have to change.
But casting stones at Ireland is a bit weird...considering we are not selling arms to Saudi....or Israel...or other countries violating human rights.

 

[Pickman's model]

it's wicked to mock the afflicted

 

[Ranbay]

everyones hard on the internets.

 

[kabbes]

I think you'd have to have lived in Ireland and seen generation after generation leave in order to get any kind of basic work to possibly understand how people see the EU as something that has been good for the country and at the same time see that we are by no means perfect.
And the whole tax thing is a problem.....the EU did fine Apple on that...and they'll probably fine more big businesses. I've no doubt the whole tax haven thing will have to change.
But casting stones at Ireland is a bit weird...considering we are not selling arms to Saudi....or Israel...or other countries violating human rights.

It’s not a matter of casting stones. It’s a matter of recognising that your country is not a helpless victim of this situation, but has been a leading player in the liberalisation of capital flows that has directly created it. So there’s no point whining when it blows up in your face.

 

[Baronage-Phase]

It’s not a matter of casting stones. It’s a matter of recognising that your country is not a helpless victim of this situation, but has been a leading player in the liberalisation of capital flows that has directly creates it. So there’s no point whining when it blows up in your face.

We have had plenty thing"blow up in our face" that were none of our doing for decades if not centuries. I think we will be able to cope with our short-lived history as a mini tax haven.

I'd put money on the UK becoming a major tax haven, post Brexit.

 

[kabbes]

We have had plenty thing"blow up in our face" that were none of our doing for decades if not centuries. I think we will be able to cope with our short-lived history as a mini tax haven.

I'd put money on the UK becoming a major tax haven, post Brexit.

You’re still making it about morality rather than cause and effect

 

[SpackleFrog]

So much for solidarity. You think exports and imports are unnecessary for the UK to survive? How will that work when industries pull out? How many workers will lose jobs then?

Solidarity comrades! The solidarity of imports and exports between comrades

 

[gosub]

Quite true.

The first was a vote on a trading bloc that was going to grow into the EU the second was a vote on the same trading bloc after 40 years of British influence.

I believe the British influence on the EU to be of an inestimable value for good and would like to keep Britain's influence on the EU active and not retreat from attempting to improve it.

You really think the UK is giong to have ANY voice in the next round of EU reform? Even before we voted to leave, look how Cameron's 'veto' worked out.

 

[SpackleFrog]

The weakness of the whole lexit argument for me is that it seems to assume that leaving the EU is somehow distances the UK from the system of globalised capitalism - but if anything its the reverse - unless you are arguing to leave the (even more neo-liberal) WTO and IMF an go down the north Korea route.

I appreciate this is incidental, or at least it probably is for you, but what makes the WTO or the IMF *more* neoliberal than the EU?

 

[Kaka Tim]

I appreciate this is incidental, or at least it probably is for you, but what makes the WTO or the IMF *more* neoliberal than the EU?

cos the EU has other stuff shaping its policies - political imperatives of the member states and its own federal agenda - plus trade protectionism - the WTO and IMF are focused solely on the bottom line - maximising "growth" and minimising trade barriers across the board.

 

[SpackleFrog]

cos the EU has other stuff shaping its policies - political imperatives of the member states and its own federal agenda - plus trade protectionism - the WTO and IMF are focused solely on the bottom line - maximising "growth" and minimising trade barriers across the board.

That's not really true, neither organisation has much of an issue with the use of trade tariffs and import taxes in Western countries. They impose free market liberalisation on the global South, sure, but they're just as happy to accept trade protectionism when its in the interests of the US/West etc

 

[Kaka Tim]

That's not really true, neither organisation has much of an issue with the use of trade tariffs and import taxes in Western countries. They impose free market liberalisation on the global South, sure, but they're just as happy to accept trade protectionism when its in the interests of the US/West etc

whilst that is true, their function - their whole point of being - is to further a rigid neo-liberal agenda. EU policy has other pressures acting on it - although its treatment of greece in particular was straight out of the IMF book of cuntery.
My point is that leaving the EU does not weaken the hold of neo-liberalism over the economy - unless you have the major manufacturing and economic clout of the USA or China - its likely to have the reverse effect.

 

[gosub]

cos the EU has other stuff shaping its policies - political imperatives of the member states and its own federal agenda - plus trade protectionism - the WTO and IMF are focused solely on the bottom line - maximising "growth" and minimising trade barriers across the board.

Greece gets over quoted, but IMF wanted debt relief EU said no

 

[gosub]

whilst that is true, their function - their whole point of being - is to further a rigid neo-liberal agenda. EU policy has other pressures acting on it - although its treatment of greece in particular was straight out of the IMF book of cuntery.
My point is that leaving the EU does not weaken the hold of neo-liberalism over the economy - unless you have the major manufacturing and economic clout of the USA or China - its likely to have the reverse effect.

Three years in and we still haven't got to the service economy. No fault of poster, our political mainstream still hasn't even got its head round what borders are about

 

[SpackleFrog]

whilst that is true, their function - their whole point of being - is to further a rigid neo-liberal agenda. EU policy has other pressures acting on it - although its treatment of greece in particular was straight out of the IMF book of cuntery.

The function of the EU is the same. The function of supranational institutions is to project the interests of the states that dominate them, which remains in the main the imposition of neoliberalism and austerity.

My point is that leaving the EU does not weaken the hold of neo-liberalism over the economy - unless you have the major manufacturing and economic clout of the USA or China - its likely to have the reverse effect.

I appreciate that there are people who argue that it will somehow magically reverse neoliberalism and that's the wrong way to understand it. But this argument about the 'reverse effect' - that we will be exposed to 'more' neoliberalism doesn't make sense.

The political trajectory was always more neoliberalism, or more concretely, austerity, whatever happened with this sideshow. The political imperative remains to stop austerity. I don't think it makes much sense to talk of 'more' neoliberalism as a consequence of Brexit.

 

[Ranbay]

 

[SpackleFrog]

View attachment 167882

Branching out I see!

 

[Ranbay]

Got a cracker lined up for tomorrow, you watch.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

My point is that leaving the EU does not weaken the hold of neo-liberalism over the economy - unless you have the major manufacturing and economic clout of the USA or China - its likely to have the reverse effect.

All economies are subject to the dominance of economic liberalism regardless of their size and/or membership/non-membership of trading blocs.

What we can say however, is that a Labour Government committed to, for example, a radical investment programme in manufacturing, capital controls, reforming to role of the Bank of England to focus on growth, using investment to rebuild deindustrialised towns and for targeted spending and investment on infrastructure would find it easier to do so outside of the common market and ECB/IMF/EU economic project rather than in it. This is a point that constantly seems to escape avowedly 'socialist' leavers who have bizarrely characterised the EU as 'progressive'.

Starmer's vision of 'friction-less trade' with the EU, as well as being a nonsese, would mean abandoning key tenets of Labour's economic programme or, at best, limiting them.

 

[Pickman's model]

Got a cracker lined up for tomorrow, you watch.

 

[Kaka Tim]

What we can say however, is that a Labour Government committed to, for example, a radical investment programme in manufacturing, capital controls, reforming to role of the Bank of England to focus on growth, using investment to rebuild deindustrialised towns and for targeted spending and investment on infrastructure would find it easier to do so outside of the common market and ECB/IMF/EU economic project rather than in it.

i dont think this is a given at all. The Uk has is not part of the Euro - so that gives it considerably greater economic autonomy than the rest of the EU nations. Also leaving the EU would almost certainly mean a weaker economy so the government has less money to spend - and leaving less funds for investments and higher borrowing rates. And it would also be a weak position to make trade deals with other nations whilst protecting things like the NHS from private investment.
International finance markets would pressure the UK into further austerity measures - look what happened to callaghan in the 70s.
Its also worth remembering that many EU countries - especially the bigger ones - routinely break or bend the EU own rules on borrowing requirements and protecting their own public services and industry.
Would a more socialist economic program from the UK face resistance from the EU? - certainly, but i think it would be even harder to get that program through if the UK was outside.

 

[Pickman's model]

i dont think this is a given at all. The Uk has is not part of the Euro - so that gives it considerably greater economic autonomy than the rest of the EU nations. Also leaving the EU would almost certainly mean a weaker economy so the government has less money to spend - and leaving less funds for investments and higher borrowing rates. And it would also be a weak position to make trade deals with other nations whilst protecting things like the NHS from private investment.
International finance markets would pressure the UK into further austerity measures - look what happened to callaghan in the 70s.
Its also worth remembering that many EU countries - especially the bigger ones - routinely break or bend the EU own rules on borrowing requirements and protecting their own public services and industry.
Would a more socialist economic program from the UK face resistance from the EU? - certainly, but i think it would be even harder to get that program through if the UK was outside.

smokeandsteam often says things they can't really support. the most problematic thing tho in the post you don't really touch on, which is the unavailability of a labour government committed to a radical investment programme

 

[SpackleFrog]

smokeandsteam often says things they can't really support. the most problematic thing tho in the post you don't really touch on, which is the unavailability of a labour government committed to a radical investment programme

smokeandsteam isn't necessarily saying that a labour govt committed to a radical investment programme is available to be fair, just that it could be.

Although of course how radical is a radical investment programme? Usually not very radical.

 

[Pickman's model]

smokeandsteam isn't necessarily saying that a labour govt committed to a radical investment programme is available to be fair, just that it could be.

Although of course how radical is a radical investment programme? Usually not very radical.

yeh you might as well say a unicorn committed to a radical investment programme, it'd be more likely to turn up

 

[SpackleFrog]

yeh you might as well say a unicorn committed to a radical investment programme, it'd be more likely to turn up

Please no more unicorn analogies.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

i dont think this is a given at all. The Uk has is not part of the Euro - so that gives it considerably greater economic autonomy than the rest of the EU nations. Also leaving the EU would almost certainly mean a weaker economy so the government has less money to spend - and leaving less funds for investments and higher borrowing rates. And it would also be a weak position to make trade deals with other nations whilst protecting things like the NHS from private investment.
International finance markets would pressure the UK into further austerity measures - look what happened to callaghan in the 70s.
Its also worth remembering that many EU countries - especially the bigger ones - routinely break or bend the EU own rules on borrowing requirements and protecting their own public services and industry.
Would a more socialist economic program from the UK face resistance from the EU? - certainly, but i think it would be even harder to get that program through if the UK was outside.

1. Given the GDP of the UK I simply do not follow your point that leaving the UK would automatically 'mean a weaker economy'. Our economy on the key measurement is already weak and a net receiver of goods, services and people. In macro terms, freedom from EU strictures and dependent on the economic priorities of the UK government leaving makes addressing the imbalance easier and not harder. The overall trade deficit was -£67 billion (-£95 billion on goods) with the EU in 2017.
2. I do not follow what you describe as a 'socialist economic programme' becomes harder to deliver. if you mean an incoming Corbyn administration and its basic social democratic programme then this does become much easier to deliver outside of the EU. State aid rules do not apply. Investment decisions are less fettered by competition rules and investment can be targeted at regions and industries in a way that is currently either prohibited or restricted by the EU. I'd add that it could potentially make the task of multi nationals to flood in imports for harder and not easier too.

 

[danny la rouge]

Please no more unicorn analogies.

I don’t believe in unicorn analogies.

 

[Pickman's model]

Please no more unicorn analogies.

it's the first unicorn thing i've posted so i've two more left before the mods can step in