Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


  • Total voters
    362
Not really, that vote is already scheduled. It seems inevitable should May's deal be voted down. They'll vote against a no deal and then vote for a request to extend.
Yep. The two realistic scenarios are May's deal somehow getting through or an extension. May's deal getting through would be an extraordinary turnaround, but we're learning never to say never with this nonsense.
 
Yep. The two realistic scenarios are May's deal somehow getting through or an extension. May's deal getting through would be an extraordinary turnaround, but we're learning never to say never with this nonsense.
yeh cos obvs no one will ever actually cancel the process. iirc this is but the latest of a series of realistic scenarios you've put forwards, with them dropping by the wayside as things change contrary to your expectations.
 
yeh cos obvs no one will ever actually cancel the process. iirc this is but the latest of a series of realistic scenarios you've put forwards, with them dropping by the wayside as things change contrary to your expectations.
Never one to miss trying to get in a dig, are you, you nasty, shameless cunt. An extension could indeed be followed by cancelling the process - I haven't said differently have I, but in this particular voting sequence, cancelling A50 before seeking an extension doesn't seem realistic. You think different, say so outright, and leave the being a cunt bit to the side for once.
 
Maybe i was on about that latest one then. Great isn't it? To join the EU gang you have to make stuff like socialism constitutionally illegal.

There are rules to this neoliberalism. Step outside and the US and others will enforce them.

The EU’s are rather weak as far as the UK is concerned. We are not in the euro and not in debt to Germany. In any case, some redistribution of a very important degree is not precluded, nor better governance, nor nationalisation given the varied model across the EU. So sue us. What would they do, kick us out?

If people want more socialism it has to at some point be a game changer inside or out. You are theorising it is impossible in, theorising it is minutely possible outside. But surely the same strength of purpose is required in either instance? Otherwise all that is for debate is wriggle room.
 
You don't know that, nobody knows the future. Leaving with no deal is still possible, and absolutely definite without a ratified deal or extension, neither of which has majority support at present. With three weeks to go.
If someone could point me towards reliable evidence that the UK is NOT leaving the EU, I'd be grateful for it. Sorry, but the word of an anonymous poster on a message board isn't quite enough to convince me. Ta!
 
I don't know but I have this growing feeling the deal will pass at the next vote. Its just a sense from reading around the various different media sources but I get the impression that the DUP and ERG lot are softening and throw in a few from the opposition benches that just needs enough tories to back May.

nah - every time the vote comes around we get reports that the ERG and DUP are softening, that some labour mps might vote for it etc etc - but its just government spin. Hunt was at it again today - saying there were "positive noises" coming from brussels. Its bollocks - the fundamentals around the back stop and the fact the EU will not reopen the deal that was agreed haven't changed. And now - with the threat of no deal effectively removed - anything may could gain on the pro - brexit mps roundabout she will lose on the pro-remain swings.
 
If someone could point me towards reliable evidence that the UK is NOT leaving the EU, I'd be grateful for it. Sorry, but the word of an anonymous poster on a message board isn't quite enough to convince me. Ta!
Yes, it's a bit like your bizarre claims that Nancy Pelosi secretly agrees with Alexanda O Cortez about everything despite all available evidence including statements by both.

The difference being this one could feasibly be true in the real world and probably is. (majority for remain in parliament, heavy majority against no deal and no majority for May's deal).

Matthew 7:5
 
There are rules to this neoliberalism. Step outside and the US and others will enforce them.

The EU’s are rather weak as far as the UK is concerned. We are not in the euro and not in debt to Germany. In any case, some redistribution of a very important degree is not precluded, nor better governance, nor nationalisation given the varied model across the EU. So sue us. What would they do, kick us out?

If people want more socialism it has to at some point be a game changer inside or out. You are theorising it is impossible in, theorising it is minutely possible outside. But surely the same strength of purpose is required in either instance? Otherwise all that is for debate is wriggle room.
None of these arguments are really much to do with pragmatic or practical routes to socialism though are they. For those who want full-on socialism, I don't think they actually believe that Brexit is going to lead to that. It's more that they are attracted to an anti-remain position by the opportunity to wind up a certain type of remainer stereotype (which might be accurate in some ways), and by a desire not to be on the same side as them. Your enemy's enemy being your friend kind of stuff. If you squint at the Brexit vote from far enough away, you can maybe convince yourself that it was a vote against something which you are ideologically opposed to, even if it was really a vote against something a bit different to that. If you squint really hard perhaps you can make it look like a vote for socialism, I don't know. All this is why we see lots of posters on this thread saying a lot of stuff about what's bad about the EU and especially what's bad about some people who like it for certain reasons, but not really coming up with an explanation for how anything's going to be better when we're out. And posters who voted remain but want to make clear that they aren't really remainers, or who voted leave but say they didn't actually vote in favour of anything, or like to make a big deal out of how they are on neither side and it's not their argument and its nothing to do with them whilst still typing out hundreds of posts on this thread which contains pages of arguments against remaining in the EU but most of those arguments having not very much to do with the things most real-life leave voters get worked up about, but I would say that, because I just simplistically dismiss all leave voters as racist thickos, of course. Everyone will hate this post, I know.
 
May can't force an extension.
And the EU may not agree to it even if it does. And, they have to agree to accept the Withdrawal Agreement, which seems to still be a garbled mess. The other 27 nations need to set up procedures and infrastructure to deal changes after the UK leaves, and you can understand why they ain't keen to wait until the 11th hour, and must be pretty pissed off with the UK government's internal dramas, dithering and incompetence. As my late mother would have said, "They should shit, or get off the pot."
 
OK, Parliament will vote to force May to ask for an extension.
What for though?

The EU are willing to accede to an extension as long as there's a specific purpose for it. They won't accede for internal UK political reasons, they're firm on that. (And there's also the EU elections yadda yadda)
 
What for though?

The EU are willing to accede to an extension as long as there's a specific purpose for it. They won't accede for internal UK political reasons, they're firm on that. (And there's also the EU elections yadda yadda)
yeh littlebabyjesus this is why i see a cancellation of article 50 as quite realistic, following on from a refusal of the eu27 to countenance an extension for purely internal reasons.
 
nah - every time the vote comes around we get reports that the ERG and DUP are softening, that some labour mps might vote for it etc etc - but its just government spin. Hunt was at it again today - saying there were "positive noises" coming from brussels. Its bollocks - the fundamentals around the back stop and the fact the EU will not reopen the deal that was agreed haven't changed. And now - with the threat of no deal effectively removed - anything may could gain on the pro - brexit mps roundabout she will lose on the pro-remain swings.
and as it says on the bridge theme song, everything goes back to the beginning
 
What for though?

The EU are willing to accede to an extension as long as there's a specific purpose for it. They won't accede for internal UK political reasons, they're firm on that. (And there's also the EU elections yadda yadda)
The 'specific purpose' would be to avoid a No Deal crash out
 
None of these arguments are really much to do with pragmatic or practical routes to socialism though are they. For those who want full-on socialism, I don't think they actually believe that Brexit is going to lead to that. It's more that they are attracted to an anti-remain position by the opportunity to wind up a certain type of remainer stereotype (which might be accurate in some ways), and by a desire not to be on the same side as them. Your enemy's enemy being your friend kind of stuff. If you squint at the Brexit vote from far enough away, you can maybe convince yourself that it was a vote against something which you are ideologically opposed to, even if it was really a vote against something a bit different to that. If you squint really hard perhaps you can make it look like a vote for socialism, I don't know. All this is why we see lots of posters on this thread saying a lot of stuff about what's bad about the EU and especially what's bad about some people who like it for certain reasons, but not really coming up with an explanation for how anything's going to be better when we're out. And posters who voted remain but want to make clear that they aren't really remainers, or who voted leave but say they didn't actually vote in favour of anything, or like to make a big deal out of how they are on neither side and it's not their argument and its nothing to do with them whilst still typing out hundreds of posts on this thread which contains pages of arguments against remaining in the EU but most of those arguments having not very much to do with the things most real-life leave voters get worked up about, but I would say that, because I just simplistically dismiss all leave voters as racist thickos, of course. Everyone will hate this post, I know.
No, I like it. :)

It's easier to throw a stone at someone who's not that far away from you, and you're more likely to thwack them, than if you're trying to attack a huge, far away fortress. Same goes for ideology. "Owning" those whose views aren't actually miles from your own gives instant gratification, and means you can avoid having to think about how you'll tackle the bigger, wider structures of injustice. If people do ask what your vision actually looks like, and what you'll do to get there, just squirm, lob a few more stones and change the subject.
 
The 'specific purpose' would be to avoid a No Deal crash out
Not good enough (they'd say). An extension would be an agreed timescale only in order to allow the UK/EU to prepare for a defined exit (or cancellation of A50). So you need to know what the deal is before an extension is agreed, there will be agreed signposts.

There may be some leeway on this of course, but only with the surety of goodwill and determination towards an agreed purpose. Would you trust the tories to do that? Or labour? Do you think WM in its current state is capable of this (without internal sabotage)?
 
  • Like
Reactions: CRI
No, I like it. :)

It's easier to throw a stone at someone who's not that far away from you, and you're more likely to thwack them, than if you're trying to attack a huge, far away fortress.
if you're aiming for a huge, far away fortress you don't want a stone you want something like this

upload_2019-3-5_14-58-21.png
 
nah - every time the vote comes around we get reports that the ERG and DUP are softening, that some labour mps might vote for it etc etc - but its just government spin. Hunt was at it again today - saying there were "positive noises" coming from brussels. Its bollocks - the fundamentals around the back stop and the fact the EU will not reopen the deal that was agreed haven't changed. And now - with the threat of no deal effectively removed - anything may could gain on the pro - brexit mps roundabout she will lose on the pro-remain swings.

You're probably right but I certainly think the vote will be much closer than before.
 
If someone could point me towards reliable evidence that the UK is NOT leaving the EU, I'd be grateful for it. Sorry, but the word of an anonymous poster on a message board isn't quite enough to convince me. Ta!

I don't know if my answer qualifies, but one piece of evidence that the UK is not leaving the EU is a 320 mile long open land (and water) border that joins the UK to the EU. I have been looking out for information as to how 'leaving' will manifest itself along that currently open border.
So far there is nothing, so it looks as though the UK is not leaving the EU.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CRI
Not good enough (they'd say). An extension would be an agreed timescale only in order to allow the UK/EU to prepare for a defined exit (or cancellation of A50). So you need to know what the deal is before an extension is agreed, there will be agreed signposts.

There may be some leeway on this of course, but only with the surety of goodwill and determination towards an agreed purpose. Would you trust the tories to do that? Or labour? Do you think WM in its current state is capable of this (without internal sabotage)?
'They say' is the key phrase here.

I'm not 100% convinced by what they say, anymore than I am by what May says
 
I don't know if my answer qualifies, but one piece of evidence that the UK is not leaving the EU is a 320 mile long open land (and water) border that joins the UK to the EU. I have been looking out for information as to how 'leaving' will manifest itself along that currently open border.
So far there is nothing, so it looks as though the UK is not leaving the EU.
The UK Government seems to be ignoring a whole swathe of crucial legal, policy and infrastructure issues - including what to do about the border in Ireland. I wish I had faith that this means they'll suddenly develop some kind of self-awareness, admit they've screwed up, and call the whole thing off. I get the sense that they are determined to plough on regardless though. :(
 
Back
Top Bottom