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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?

  • Yes - A fully independant Britain making its own way in the world (apart from scotland).

    Votes: 66 18.2%

  • A Semi-Detached Norway type deal

    Votes: 111 30.7%

  • No - 2nd referendum and/or face saving fudge to let us slink back in feeling a bit fucking stupid

    Votes: 185 51.1%
  • Total voters
    362
philosophical said:
I don't know if my answer qualifies, but one piece of evidence that the UK is not leaving the EU is a 320 mile long open land (and water) border that joins the UK to the EU. I have been looking out for information as to how 'leaving' will manifest itself along that currently open border.
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You really haven’t.
 
DexterTCN said:
What for though?

The EU are willing to accede to an extension as long as there's a specific purpose for it. They won't accede for internal UK political reasons, they're firm on that. (And there's also the EU elections yadda yadda)
Click to expand...

Because after all May's posturing about delivering Brexit as scheduled, agreeing an extension will basically kill Brexit. Plus they can look magnanimous. If you want to stop Brexit the best way isn't to have a second ref or revoke A50, it's just to kick the can down the road until everyone gives up.
 
May's going to knock her opponents out one by one. Vote on her deal, fails. Vote on preventing no deal, passes and blocks the ERG. Vote on a minor extension kicks the can and then means no further extensions will be granted. Check mate.

The most vital thing is that we take part in the forthcoming EU elections. Without that we're fubared.
 
philosophical said:
I don't know if my answer qualifies, but one piece of evidence that the UK is not leaving the EU is a 320 mile long open land (and water) border that joins the UK to the EU. I have been looking out for information as to how 'leaving' will manifest itself along that currently open border.
So far there is nothing, so it looks as though the UK is not leaving the EU.
Click to expand...
The border between the UK and the rest of the EU isn't currently 'open', it's staffed by customs eg on both sides of the Channel.

French customs agents disrupt Calais port ahead of Brexit

You really don't understand this 'border' business, do you?
 
teqniq said:
Private Eye

View attachment 163652
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It's amazing...the world is falling down around them...they never acknowledge it and just carry on.

They've no idea what's going to happen, no-one does (except...horribly...a small amount of tories). And they just keep making utter fools of themselves.

It's all about what they 'think'. As if that helps somehow.

Brexiters are basically jehovah's witnesses...wanting the world to burn but thinking they'll be fine.
 
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andysays said:
What a bizarre comment (and also wrong, I'm not English)
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You're viewpoint seems to be...if you think the channel is the only border. Which it obviously is not...half the thread has been about the fucking border. Only an English viewpoint would think what you said, no-one else in the UK would think that (, except maybe labour and tory mps scattered about the place and some people of an orange persuasion) and even then in the context of what has undeniably massively been on the thread it's just an incredibly stupid thing to say. It could be the worst post on the entire thread.

(And if you or your mates are going to go down the 'racism' avenue...well-trodden these parts...make sure and back it up with any other post in my 15 years, 17,000 posts and zero warnings here.)
 
toblerone3 said:
Is Brexit actually going to happen? I have always thought it is not going to happen and I still think that.
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That's what my instincts are telling me, too. I just can't see how the Tories would allow it because it disadvantages them. And they'll find a way to squirm out of it. And whatever anyone is second guessing, even people who really know what they're talking about, the government have the best brains in the country working to keep their snouts in the trough, whatever it takes.
 
The ordering of next week's votes is good I think.

a) Do you want May's Deal? - No
b) Do you want a No Deal Brexit - No
c) Do you want an extension/revocation of Article 50 - If the answer to c) is no then wft are you doing voting against a No Deal Brexit.
 
DexterTCN said:
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I saw that a few people had shared that video, and while most of the comments were either sympathetic or thought it was disgraceful, there were a fair few eejits with the, "Why didn't she become a British citizen if she likes the country so much?" and "They do it in other countries, so why shouldn't they do it here."

One thing I noticed, is the lady said that she had to "register," when it's actually applying for settled status, which means it can be rejected or revoked at any time. It's not the same as the old "indefinite leave to remain" like I got in, I think it was about 1991 or something. It's expensive, bureaucratic and stressful, and the process has been dogged with problems. You just know the Home Office will fuck it up for so many people.

Also, in other countries, they have national registers or ID schemes, so everyone does it, and it's just a wee paper exercise with a slightly different slant for non-citizens. Here, it applies only to non British EU nationals, even if they've been here decades, have families, jobs, businesses, bought their homes, etc. There's something decidedly iffy about requiring only them to apply for this register, and constantly provide updates to the Home Office, every time they move, change jobs, change banks, etc. Very iffy.
 
toblerone3 said:
The ordering of next week's votes is good I think.

a) Do you want May's Deal? - No
b) Do you want a No Deal Brexit - No
c) Do you want an extension/revocation of Article 50 - If the answer to c) is no then wft are you doing voting against a No Deal Brexit.
Click to expand...

She's going to bounce the House. She's said as much herself.

a) Do you want May's Deal? - No
b) Do you want a No Deal Brexit - No
c) Do you want an extension/revocation of Article 50? They'll say yes, even the ERG are softening. She'll give them 3 months, and then say we're not taking part in the EU elections.

She won't extend long enough to do anything useful, like plan for no deal or run a 2nd ref. But it is enough time to take us past the real cliff edge, which is the EU elections. After that there can be no extension for any reason, and she will bring back to the House....her Deal!!

And this time all options will have been exhausted. It will truly be her deal or no deal, with no extension possible and no revocation at her hands. And she will win this, and we'll be out by June.
 
Wookey said:
She's going to bounce the House. She's said as much herself.

a) Do you want May's Deal? - No
b) Do you want a No Deal Brexit - No
c) Do you want an extension/revocation of Article 50? They'll say yes, even the ERG are softening. She'll give them 3 months, and then say we're not taking part in the EU elections.

She won't extend long enough to do anything useful, like plan for no deal or run a 2nd ref. But it is enough time to take us past the real cliff edge, which is the EU elections. After that there can be no extension for any reason, and she will bring back to the House....her Deal!!

And this time all options will have been exhausted. It will truly be her deal or no deal, with no extension possible and no revocation at her hands. And she will win this, and we'll be out by June.
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Being as you've the political nous of chuka umunna I'll take your prognostication with a decent dose of salt
 
DexterTCN said:
You're viewpoint seems to be...if you think the channel is the only border. Which it obviously is not...half the thread has been about the fucking border. Only an English viewpoint would think what you said, no-one else in the UK would think that (, except maybe labour and tory mps scattered about the place and some people of an orange persuasion) and even then in the context of what has undeniably massively been on the thread it's just an incredibly stupid thing to say. It could be the worst post on the entire thread.

(And if you or your mates are going to go down the 'racism' avenue...well-trodden these parts...make sure and back it up with any other post in my 15 years, 17,000 posts and zero warnings here.)
Click to expand...

andysays said:
... it's staffed by customs eg on both sides of the Channel...
Click to expand...

The reason I mentioned the Channel specifically is because it relates to the current work to rule by French customs officials, linked to in my post, not because my views are blinkered by what you imagine to be my Englishness (in fact I'm Scottish enough that I would be granted Scottish citizenship in the event of an independent Scotland).

And I haven't mentioned or even hinted at racism on your part, but if the cap fits...
 
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