Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[SpackleFrog]

Yeah, if May goes after Brexit/non-Brexit the new leader may call an election at some point, though they'd be worried after 2017 and they'd also be accused of doing politics at a sensitive time for the economy. So, dunno. Suppose the 7 come into that calculation if they get a few more MPs and, crucially, some kind of organisation in seats around the country. I don't see much chance of that. Perhaps the practical outcome will be an agreement with the Libdems not to oppose each other whenever the next GE comes.

Don't rule out a GE with May as leader - winning a majority is about the only way she's gonna get her deal through. It might seem daft but her other options are 'cancel Brexit' or 'prepare for no deal'.

You've got to assume these 7 are hoping to add Lib Dems and a couple of Tories to their party. Soubry for example. They surely can't think they're going anywhere if they don't.

 

[SpackleFrog]

If another party does evolve will we see the return of David Miliband?

Maybe even Blair

 

[mauvais]

Honda closing it's only UK plant. 3,500 jobs (at least double that with suppliers etc.)

That Labour party crisis though, eh!

There's a critical mass to UK mass production car manufacturing - UK-based supply chain that requires multiple manufacturing sites to be viable. Same sort of thing as America where in the economic crash, the comparatively healthy Ford feared the collapse of GM and/or Chrysler because it would do sufficient damage to the domestic supply ecosystem that it would kill them too.

Enough is going wrong of late that, if unchecked, it's probably close to the end of a significant industry in the UK. There's nearly a million jobs in the UK dependent on it.

 

[DexterTCN]

How many of the 7 do you think would keep their seats in a hypothetical GE, or even split the Labour vote to an electorally significant extent?

By 'electorally significant' do you mean losing by even more?

Anyway this is a message from one of the ones who left because of alleged racism in the Labour party.

 

[andysays]

By 'electorally significant' do you mean losing by even more

What I had in mind was that they split the Labour vote to the extent that another candidate won the seat, but someone else might have another, equally valid, idea of what 'electorally significant' means.

So, do you have any answer to my question, or are you going to continue to avoid expressing an opinion of your own?

 

[DexterTCN]

...So, do you have any answer to my question, or are you going to continue to avoid expressing an opinion of your own?

You're replying to my opinion, you dumb cunt.

Keeps the tories in power in the post-brexit general election.

 

[butchersapron]

You realise that these are different posts dexter. No, of course you don't.

 

[andysays]

You're replying to my opinion, you dumb cunt.

But how are they going to keep the tories in power in your hypothetical post-Brexit general election?

By keeping their seats in a hypothetical GE, or splitting the Labour vote to an electorally significant extent, and if so who and where, or by some other means yet to be revealed?

 

[DexterTCN]

But how are they going to keep the tories in power in your hypothetical post-Brexit general election?

By keeping their seats in a hypothetical GE, or splitting the Labour vote to an electorally significant extent, and if so who and where, or by some other means yet to be revealed?

Just clarify first, cheers.

When you were being a dick and calling me out for not giving an opinion...you were in fact replying to me posting my opinion, yeah?

 

[CRI]

HM Gov is still chucking out advisory notices at a rate of knots. This one is about the export of organic food outside the UK in the event of a (probably now inevitable) no deal Brexit. According to this article from last year, about 10% of organically certified UK produced food and drink is exported, mostly to the EU, but that is still worth £2.2b in trade involving quite a few small firms. The notice says explicitly that this will become 0 in the event of No Deal.

Unless an equivalency deal is reached with the EU, or your UK control body is recognised by the EU, you will not be able to export organic food or feed to the EU.

Suspect organic farming will go under eventually anyhow, especially when that new fangled trade deal with the US compels the UK to import hormone and antibiotic pumped, chlorine washed meat, high fructose corn sweetened everything and all the other dodgy food produced in the US. Lovely!

 

[elbows]

It seems that in the not too distant past, Angela was concerned about renationalising water, lest this development bring a funny tinge to the environment.

In October 2018, Smith challenged the policy of her party over the proposed re-nationalisation of the domestic water sector. She argued that taking water out of private ownership risked 'cutting investment in the sector to raise environmental standards'. Smith’s register of interests for 2016 show that she and her husband, whom she employs as her senior parliamentary researcher, were treated to football matches and dinner three times by Whitehouse Construction, a subcontractor to Anglian Water.

Angela Smith (Sheffield MP) - Wikipedia

 

[elbows]

Oops I had meant to stick that in a different thread, sorry.

 

[DexterTCN]

Something that hasn't been mentioned, I think, is the withdrawal of the right to work.

It's not specifically EU based but I do think that perhaps it's brexit based. Certainly part of the concept of brexit, whether certain chambers agree or not.

As part of my job as a tax collector I see lots of trends. Increases in self-employment 2 decades or so ago when so many EU nationals came over (CIS was created because if this, for those in the know), aggressive pursuit of tax credit overpayments stood out. Lots of EU nationals who were self-employed then leaving (no address, no tax return, no job, no benefits or tax credits generally means they're gone but many also phone from abroad to settle their debts). They've definitely been trends I've seen/am seeing. A flow in and now a flow out (and a much more aggressive debt recovery program all over which attacks all of the lower paid).

But the recent trend has been the refusal to work...it's for non-EU residents of the UK so wouldn't come up in EUy/brexity discussion (I didn't think about it myself and I knew it).

Loads of them are being refused the right to work. Really good earners, people who do £50/100k plus jobs, hard to replace jobs, as well as low/normal earners. In some cases they're not allowed to have money put into their bank accounts. This is from discussion with some of them, I've not checked legislation.

Absolutely LOADS from India.

 

[zahir]

But the recent trend has been the refusal to work...it's for non-EU residents of the UK so wouldn't come up in EUy/brexity discussion (I didn't think about it myself and I knew it).

Loads of them are being refused the right to work. Really good earners, people who do £50/100k plus jobs, hard to replace jobs, as well as low/normal earners. In some cases they're not allowed to have money put into their bank accounts. This is from discussion with some of them, I've not checked legislation.

Absolutely LOADS from India.

Any idea what reasons are being given for this?

 

[CRI]

Christ on a bike.

Sajid Javid warns EU counterparts of joint policing 'disruption'

The home secretary, Sajid Javid, has urged his EU counterparts to prepare for the eventuality that current joint policing systems could discontinue on 30 March because of a no-deal Brexit.

He also warns that there is, as yet, no deal in place for sharing of airline passenger data, critical in the fight against criminals and terrorists who flee to another country to escape the law.

The letter comes just days after a police chief warned that a no-deal Brexit would damage police powers to detain foreign suspects and leave British fugitives in Europe beyond the law.

Steve Peers, professor of EU law and human rights law at the University of Essex, said: “The home secretary’s letter admits what many law enforcement practitioners had warned: leaving the EU without an agreement leads to ‘less efficient’ and more costly methods of cooperation between justice and law enforcement officials.”

Suspect it's going to be really shitty for anyone traveling in or out of the UK after 29th March, and probably for some time. Since they haven't got anything in place at the UK Border, looks like they'll either just wave everyone through after cursory checks or conversely, go meticulously through their "pencil and paper" back up system, leaving people queuing for miles.

Methinks EU countries won't have much confidence in the UK's slap dash efforts, so get ready for long waits and possible rejections trying to get into the EU. I'm sure they'll all be buoyed along by that Dunkirk/Blitz spirit, or something.

 

[DexterTCN]

Any idea what reasons are being given for this?

I'd rather hear other people's.

 

[zahir]

I'd rather hear other people's.

There’s a new immigration bill going through as a consequence of brexit so I imagine it’s connected to that.

 

[DexterTCN]

There’s a new immigration bill as a consequence of brexit going through so I imagine it’s connected to that.

oh this is already happening...whatever is currently going through enactment will be worse I'd expect

 

[zahir]

Maybe related to this?

Where is UK labour migration policy heading after Brexit? - UK in a changing Europe

Perhaps the most radical proposal in the White Paper is the introduction of strict limits on the duration of migrant workers’ stays in the UK.

proponents of strictly temporary migration see it as a way for the government to satisfy employer demand for workers without adding to the long-term growth of the migrant population and without taking responsibility for workers’ long-term prospects for integration.

 

[DexterTCN]

Maybe related to this?

Where is UK labour migration policy heading after Brexit? - UK in a changing Europe

I wasn't aware of most of that but it fits the pattern.

One interesting feature of the government’s immigration plan is that it studiously avoids giving employers in lower-paid jobs the administrative duties—and also the power over their workers—that comes with sponsorship.

Keeping that for themselves no doubt. Still...only the foreign working class, charity begins at home and all that.

(and now someone will be offensive and their mate will move the goalposts...)

 

[Kaka Tim]

Cabinet ministers tell May: stop using no-deal threat to negotiate

pressure on may from within the cabinet to rule out no deal as a negotiating tactic- citing damage it is already doing to business. i would say this pressure is only going to increase to the point where may is going to have to seek a suspension in the A50 process if she cant get her deal through - but which would also mean mps are far more likely to vote against it (again) if there is no fear of crashing out.

 

[ska invita]

For anyone else who didn't hear LBC this morning, , Farage was going on about the desirability of buying British food. Support your local farmer etc etc. Brexit making this all the more possible of course. Never mind that the economist hard brexiters love siting, Proph Patrick Minford, has said a no deal would likely lead to the desimation of British farming and manufacturing and that this is a good thing because cheap Austrailian beef and more sweat shop goods can be imported.

“Economists for Brexit” group leader Professor Patrick Minford:
"[car industry] "...you are going to have to run it down. It will be in your interests to do it, just as in the same way we ran down the coal and steel industries. These things happen as evolution takes place in your economy."
The devastating future for Welsh manufacturing predicted by a Brexit economist

 

[Poi E]

History repeating itself, first as tragedy etc

 

[Ranbay]

Wales is propper fucked.

 

[editor]

 

[CRI]

I'm sure this is fine.

Met police spending on plastic bullets triples in a year

The Met police have tripled their spending on plastic bullets in a single year, according to figures seen by the Guardian.

The figures have emerged amid growing fears about the potential for a no-deal Brexit to result in civil disorder. Last month, the Guardian learned that almost 1,000 police officers from England and Scotland were due to begin training for deployment in Northern Ireland in case of trouble in the event of no deal.

An official report into policing of the August 2011 disturbances in English cities revealed police had wanted to fire plastic bullets at rioters in south London but were unable to do so because specialist units had been deployed elsewhere in the capital. The Met’s response to the riots also revealed the force had increased its capacity since the riots “to make more agile use” of the weapons. Plastic bullets have been linked to the deaths in Northern Ireland of at least 17 people, eight of whom were children.

 

[Raheem]

It's nothing to do with Brexit. We would have all been shot with rubber bullets anyway. It's a cyclical thing.

 

[danny la rouge]

It's nothing to do with Brexit. We would have all been shot with rubber bullets anyway. It's a cyclical thing.

Yup. Completely tenuous.

 

[Ranbay]

Till everyone has to dress like this.

 

[CRI]

Isn't the, "1,000 police officers from England and Scotland were due to begin training for deployment to Northern Ireland," just a tad concerning as well? I mean 25 years ago, that wouldn't have sounded too strange, but now, well . . .