Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[MrCurry]

The new “independent group” which is gathering MPs from labour and conservatives feels like a significant moment in how Brexit will play out. It will not take many more to jump ship before Mrs May has a minority in parliament (even with help from the DUP).

So is the path out of this mess going to be (1) Brexit delay due to lack of deal being voted through within parliament, followed by (2) election due to lack of functioning majority in parliament followed by (3) second referendum due to the pro-remain “independent group” winning a substantial number of seats in the next parliament?

If this can gets kicked far enough down the road, all the objections to a second referendum can be dismissed with the excuse that “public opinion appears to have changed”. For that to stick, there needs to actually be a pro-EU party winning a good amount of seats at an election, and this more than anything else, seems to me to be what’s causing this breakaway “independent group” of MPs to act now.

 

[gentlegreen]

I was surprised to hear there are 11 libdems left - so they would make the numbers up to 22 ...

 

[Chz]

I should email my LD MP and convince him to leave. Not that I think he'd listen to me, but I'm sure it would improve his chances around these parts.

 

[Poi E]

I should email my LD MP and convince him to leave.

Pitchforks and torches work best.

 

[Pickman's model]

Pitchforks and torches work best.

They're the traditional way to persuade the yellow scum

 

[grit]

Isn't the, "1,000 police officers from England and Scotland were due to begin training for deployment to Northern Ireland," just a tad concerning as well? I mean 25 years ago, that wouldn't have sounded too strange, but now, well . . .

Just a tad.

 

[Chz]

They're the traditional way to persuade the yellow scum

I seem to be fresh out. Any chance I could borrow a few?

 

[Pickman's model]

I seem to be fresh out. Any chance I could borrow a few?

Have a job lot, and some tiny violins to play him on his way out

 

[Dogsauce]

I should email my LD MP and convince him to leave. Not that I think he'd listen to me

Set up a trail of dog turds with attendant local press photographers that leads from his constituency office to whichever wetherspoons Chuka’s chumps are using as a batcave.

 

[Pickman's model]

Isn't the, "1,000 police officers from England and Scotland were due to begin training for deployment to Northern Ireland," just a tad concerning as well? I mean 25 years ago, that wouldn't have sounded too strange, but now, well . . .

25 years ago it would have been astonishing

You don't remember the downing street declaration, do you?

 

[Ranbay]

 

[ska invita]

The Kyle/Wilson plan of the house voting for Mays deal, but that deal being put to a national referendum - is that something that can come about as a result of a vote/amendment or does it have to come about by some kind of a right honourable agreement behind the scenes?
And if its a vote, is that going to be tabled next week?

 

[Teaboy]

The Kyle/Wilson plan of the house voting for Mays deal, but that deal being put to a national referendum - is that something that can come about as a result of a vote/amendment or does it have to come about by some kind of a right honourable agreement behind the scenes?
And if its a vote, is that going to be tabled next week?

Kyle / Wilson plan seems like a lightly reworded and repackaged peoples vote. I can't see any leaver going for it, especially those leavers who don't much like May's deal. Then again there might be a majority for it in the house but I think it would risk a further schism of the tories which May is prepared to do anything to prevent.

I still think a second referendum in any form would just create even bigger divisions and factions in the country.

 

[ska invita]

Kyle / Wilson plan seems like a lightly reworded and repackaged peoples vote. I can't see any leaver going for it, especially those leavers who don't much like May's deal. Then again there might be a majority for it in the house but I think it would risk a further schism of the tories which May is prepared to do anything to prevent.

I still think a second referendum in any form would just create even bigger divisions and factions in the country.

May well be the case, but I don't really understand the hypothetical path to it happening

 

[SpookyFrank]

Isn't the, "1,000 police officers from England and Scotland were due to begin training for deployment to Northern Ireland," just a tad concerning as well? I mean 25 years ago, that wouldn't have sounded too strange, but now, well . . .

Astonishing. I had no idea there were still 1,000 police officers in England and Scotland.

 

[MrCurry]

I don’t know what’s happening on the Brexit front, but I’ve noticed over the past few months that whenever it starts to look less likely that Brexit can be delivered on time, the pound strengthens against the euro. Today it’s been flying!

Wonder if news will come out this evening or tomorrow about what’s been taking place in Mrs May’s discussions.

 

[Ranbay]

Huge billboard in Brussels to remind Theresa May she supported Remain - BelfastTelegraph.co.uk

Huge billboard in Brussels to remind Theresa May she supported Remain

 

[gentlegreen]

I don’t know what’s happening on the Brexit front, but I’ve noticed over the past few months that whenever it starts to look less likely that Brexit can be delivered on time, the pound strengthens against the euro. Today it’s been flying!

Relatively speaking - but I can't see it ever getting back to 1.40

 

[gentlegreen]

I still think a second referendum in any form would just create even bigger divisions and factions in the country.

Especially if they leave off the "do a runner and fuck the UK for a generation" option ...

 

[gentlegreen]

Huge billboard in Brussels to remind Theresa May she supported Remain - BelfastTelegraph.co.uk

Huge billboard in Brussels to remind Theresa May she supported Remain

i must see how their crowd funding is going - I had a mind to chip in a fiver...

 

[MrCurry]

Relatively speaking - but I can't see it ever getting back to 1.40

Yep, it’s all relative. I agree with you that overall the pound is in the gutter. The best indication possible that the leave campaign’s promises were a pack of lies.

 

[SpackleFrog]

The new “independent group” which is gathering MPs from labour and conservatives feels like a significant moment in how Brexit will play out. It will not take many more to jump ship before Mrs May has a minority in parliament (even with help from the DUP).

So is the path out of this mess going to be (1) Brexit delay due to lack of deal being voted through within parliament, followed by (2) election due to lack of functioning majority in parliament followed by (3) second referendum due to the pro-remain “independent group” winning a substantial number of seats in the next parliament?

If this can gets kicked far enough down the road, all the objections to a second referendum can be dismissed with the excuse that “public opinion appears to have changed”. For that to stick, there needs to actually be a pro-EU party winning a good amount of seats at an election, and this more than anything else, seems to me to be what’s causing this breakaway “independent group” of MPs to act now.

I'm not sure I agree - that you need a pro-EU party to win a lot of seats at least. I certainly don't think the 'Independent Group' will win a lot of seats and I don't see a Remain party winning a lot of seats either.

I think it's more about spoiling the Labour vote and attempting to pressure May and Corbyn to commit to a second ref and/or Remain.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Yep, it’s all relative. I agree with you that overall the pound is in the gutter. The best indication possible that the leave campaign’s promises were a pack of lies.

Or that 'the markets' are punishing the British electorate for voting the wrong way. That's usually what happens in these circumstances.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yep, it’s all relative. I agree with you that overall the pound is in the gutter

Next stop is the grave

 

[Ranbay]

I get all
My jobs news from mumsnet before you ask

 

[zahir]

Ivan Rogers’ evidence to the EU Select Committee yesterday, with an assessment of where negotiations are up to.

Parliamentlive.tv

 

[DexterTCN]

 

[gentlegreen]

Genius !!

 

[Badgers]

Project fear again :rollseyes:

 

[DexterTCN]

Easiest trade deals ever.

Loads of jobs. Friends all over the world. Prestige. Countries queuing up to suck our dicks.

Citizenship is now removable. People have to register and be assessed. Landlords and employers will have to do it soon. Non-EU citizens are being deported but it rarely makes more than local news, people who've been here for decades.