mojo pixy
...שלא נמצא בשמאל
Because without a trade deal we're all naked in the face of international blah
something like that.
Is Brexit actually going to happen?
- Thread starter Kaka Tim
- Start date
Because without a trade deal we're all naked in the face of international blah
something like that.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
the emperor's new clothes
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
So, does the departure of the unholy 7 affect the various Brexit vote numbers? At one level, they'll be desperate to vote differently to Labour now, just because, to make it look like it was worth leaving the party etc. But I can't think of a scenario on any significant vote where they would end up voting for some version of May's deal. However if May did move a few inches towards Corbyn's letter and Labour whipped their MPs to vote for a deal, they'd certainly vote against that. However, fwiw, I don't think Labour supporting 'May's deal + a sprinkling of worker's rights' is a likely scenario anyway.
It certainly weakens Labour's ability to get any kind of purchase on the Brexit process - with this lot there must be about 8/9 ex-Labour independents now. But it doesn't necessarily strengthen May. I think. Perhaps.
It certainly weakens Labour's ability to get any kind of purchase on the Brexit process - with this lot there must be about 8/9 ex-Labour independents now. But it doesn't necessarily strengthen May. I think. Perhaps.
gentlegreen
I hummus, therefore I am ...
Boris Johnson's sister has stripped off for Brexit
andysays
Love and solidarity
How many of the 7 do you think would keep their seats in a hypothetical GE, or even split the Labour vote to an electorally significant extent?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
none of them
andysays
Love and solidarity
That would be my guess, but i'd be interested to hear from anyone who wants to argue otherwise
Ranbay
The same rules apply
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
If the real tory candidate stood aside, maybe.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Naked Rambler must be thinking, 'that could have been me. All I needed was an education at both Cambridge and Oxford and a fellowship at Gonville and Caius, but all I got was this lousy Barlinnie T-Shirt'.
andysays
Love and solidarity
I was hoping someone might be prepared to make an argument, not just pluck a number out of the air
Ranbay
The same rules apply
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
I guess we'll just have to wait for someone (naming no names) to find a twitter post that takes the place of his (or her) opinion.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Suppose the ones that have the most chance of keeping their seat are - statement of the obvious - the ones with the largest leave vote. However it doesn't follow that having a large majority from 2017 helps them. They will be pitching for non-Labour votes. Can't be bothered looking the numbers up. More to the point, we can't predict the circumstances the next election will take place in (or indeed when).
So.… 2 of them will definitely keep their seats.
So.… 2 of them will definitely keep their seats.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
That would depend on those leave voters being as utterly consumed with opposing brexit to the opposition of other issues as the media-lib-left. And i can't see it in any of them. That is a very restricted profile. Voters have other shit to deal with. Polly ain't.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Yeah, an election at some point towards 2022 looks more like a business as usual election, with voters voting along normal lines (admittedly, in an economy being shaped by a slightly different version of neo-liberalism). In that scenario, the 7 get swept away. An election called say next Autumn allows them to wring out the last few drops and justify their existence a tad more.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
To be fair since they're obviously gonna be pushing hard to revoke A50 and cancel Brexit I think it might be the other way round. Angela Smith is fooked in Stocksbridge and Peniston. Although could just as easily go Tory as Labour.
Sorry to be that guy...
I have read on Twitter (so it must be true) that they've registered the Independent Group as a private company rather than a party. Which suggests this isn't the party yet. Negotiations with Tory's, Lib Dems and anyone else who isn't fussed about the company they keep presumably on the way.
I have also read that they have a "ten year plan", don't mind losing their seats and are going to target key marginals after that. Which sounds a bit more far fetched.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
I saw this, it keeps donations private apparently.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Private donations essential if they are to secure those all important 4 Remainiac Tory MP's.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Can only imagine that they're trying to rake in some dodgy, right-wing £ before declaring as a party. Once they do register as a party they're bound by Electoral law on donor/loan transparency.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Targeting marginals means making it more likely a tory or lib-dem will win doesn't it, given that tory voters are not going to be so daft as to go near them. Only tories and lib-dems can benefit from that. Makes that decision to hide the money a bit more interesting that.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
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