Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[kebabking]

So you believe that No Deal is the future? Why so defeatist, surely we have to have some hope.

Surely you have grasp of power dynamics?

If the UK passes a law that states that it cannot leave the EU without a deal of some kind that parliament agrees to, then the EU could, for example, withdraw the current deal and not offer another one - thus meaning that the UK could not leave the EU, or it could amend the current offered deal to make it more advantageous to them: so it could demand an annual UK financial contribution to the EU budget - of say, £10bn a year - and it could decide to say that for each week the UK doesn't agree to it, the sum would rise by 10%...

That's what happens when you say that you won't accept a no deal exit - you are saying that you will accept anything the other side puts in front of you.

How do you cope with shoelaces?

 

[Badgers]

Presumably the poll that was paid for the 'Peoples Vote' campaign?

Why do you presume that?

YouGov was the source

 

[butchersapron]

You can try and rule out a No Deal Brexit by declaring that you will not aim for it. But you will still need to take some actions to make it less likely. Revoking A50 would be one of them. So better to skip to the action rather than get hung up on a declaration.

She's done that - the first bit. Now what?

I agree that stopping brexit would make a no-deal brexit less likely. Top quality analysis here, thanks.

 

[Teaboy]

Why do you presume that?

Actually, good point. I conflated two different things I read today.

 

[toblerone3]

Surely you have grasp of power dynamics?

If the UK passes a law that states that it cannot leave the EU without a deal of some kind that parliament agrees to, then the EU could, for example, withdraw the current deal and not offer another one - thus meaning that the UK could not leave the EU, or it could amend the current offered deal to make it more advantageous to them: so it could demand an annual UK financial contribution to the EU budget - of say, £10bn a year - and it could decide to say that for each week the UK doesn't agree to it, the sum would rise by 10%...

That's what happens when you say that you won't accept a no deal exit - you are saying that you will accept anything the other side puts in front of you.

How do you cope with shoelaces?

My earlier post was about Corbyn and criticising his demand that TM rules out a No Deal Brexit and supporting instead positive moves to mobilise the probable majority in the HoC to make positive moves to make it less likely. You are attempting to turn what I said into its opposite. You should be addressing your comments about power dynamics to Jeremy Corbyn not me.

 

[butchersapron]

My earlier post about Corbyn and criticising his demand that TM rules out a No Deal Brexit and supporting instead positive moves to mobilise the probable majority in the HoC to make positive moves to make it less likely.

Clarte, pure clarte.

 

[toblerone3]

My earlier post was about Corbyn and criticising his demand that TM rules out a No Deal Brexit and supporting instead positive moves to mobilise the probable majority in the HoC to make positive moves to make it less likely. You are attempting to turn what I said into its opposite. You should be addressing your comments about power dynamics to Jeremy Corbyn not me.

 

[cupid_stunt]

How do you cope with shoelaces?

 

[Pickman's model]

Not all Tory MPs support a No Deal Brexit.

But all tories supported the government when the VoNC-er Corbyn tried to topple it

 

[toblerone3]

Errr See my earlier post. your laughter should be directed at Kebabking for his stupidity or at Jeremy Corbyn for his naivety.

 

[Pickman's model]

Errr See my earlier post. your laughter should be directed at Kebabking for his stupidity or at Jeremy Corbyn for his naivety.

Cs laughs at everyone

 

[toblerone3]

But all tories supported the government when the VoNC-er Corbyn tried to topple it

A backbench motion is different from a VONC. Could in theory backbench motions force the government's hand in extending/revoking A50. I'm not an expert in HoC protocol but I thought that the recent kerfuffle with the Speaker was something to do with that.

 

[Badgers]

Actually, good point. I conflated two different things I read today.

This shit is really grating on us all isn't it? I had two snappy exchanges in work today

Person1: The problem with Corbyn is that he is really regative, just seems to oppose things the government do.
Me: That is what the opposition party generally does, especially when they oppose a self-serving shower of cunts

Person2: I would rather vote Lib Dems than Labour, at least they are trying to help get the best Brexit.
Me: *explodes*

 

[cupid_stunt]

Errr See my earlier post. your laughter should be directed at Kebabking for his stupidity or at Jeremy Corbyn for his naivety.

We do need to rule out a No Deal Brexit ....

Are you claiming by saying 'we', you wasn't including yourself?

 

[brogdale]

Bit of clue when the chancellor of the right party of capital tells capital not to worry their pretty little heads about the 'No-deal' threat to their rate of accumulation.

 

[MickiQ]

This shit is really grating on us all isn't it? I had two snappy exchanges in work today

Person1: The problem with Corbyn is that he is really regative, just seems to oppose things the government do.
Me: That is what the opposition party generally does, especially when they oppose a self-serving shower of cunts

Person2: I would rather vote Lib Dems than Labour, at least they are trying to help get the best Brexit.
Me: *explodes*

Brexit is definitely one of those setting father against son, brother against brother kind of things, some of the exchanges on this thread have got very heated at times.

 

[agricola]

A backbench motion is different from a VONC. Could in theory backbench motions force the government's hand in extending/revoking A50. I'm not an expert in HoC protocol but I thought that the recent kerfuffle with the Speaker was something to do with that.

IIRC only a statute specifically revoking the previous Act (the one enshrining the leave date) would do that, and only if it ordered a specific person to do it. They could concievably do that via a Private Members' Bill, though almost certainly not in the face of determined opposition (lack of time, being talked out etc).

 

[Badgers]

Brexit is definitely one of those setting father against son, brother against brother kind of things, some of the exchanges on this thread have got very heated at times.

I don't like it at all...

Can see the flaws in the EU but compared to the flaws in our beshitted country

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

IIRC only a statute specifically revoking the previous Act (the one enshrining the leave date) would do that, and only if it ordered a specific person to do it. They could concievably do that via a Private Members' Bill, though almost certainly not in the face of determined opposition (lack of time, being talked out etc).

Or successfully adding an amendment to one of the in-scope Bills dealing with aspects of brexit currently halted at various stages of parliamentary approval. The amendment would have to be about A50 revocation as a last resort, of course. But if the votes are there, anything is possible.

 

[toblerone3]

Are you claiming by saying 'we', you wasn't including yourself?

FFS my whole point was differentiating between different ways of ruling out a No Deal Brexit against Corbyn's approach of political grandstanding, ineffective and politically naive (as others have said) and in favour of effective practical action such as backbench motions which move the process on. Go back and read it. I've added in a bit from my next post to make it clearer.

 

[toblerone3]

IIRC only a statute specifically revoking the previous Act (the one enshrining the leave date) would do that, and only if it ordered a specific person to do it. They could concievably do that via a Private Members' Bill, though almost certainly not in the face of determined opposition (lack of time, being talked out etc).

So this whole narrative of backbenchers being able to take control of the process is not true then (?)

 

[Pickman's model]

So this whole narrative of backbenchers being able to take control of the process is not true then (?)

Everything you think you believe is based on a tissue of lies

 

[Pickman's model]

Brexit is definitely one of those setting father against son, brother against brother kind of things, some of the exchanges on this thread have got very heated at times.

I've seen worse on the jacket potatoes threads

 

[Pickman's model]

IIRC only a statute specifically revoking the previous Act (the one enshrining the leave date) would do that, and only if it ordered a specific person to do it. They could concievably do that via a Private Members' Bill, though almost certainly not in the face of determined opposition (lack of time, being talked out etc).

Private members bill? Only needs one person to shout 'object' to halt it

 

[not-bono-ever]

judging by the bumbling fuckwittery on display so far from both sides, i would warrant neither the PM nor the leader of the opposition have ever played a game of poker or bought a second hand car in their lives.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

So this whole narrative of backbenchers being able to take control of the process is not true then (?)

The Speaker allowed a vote on Dominic Grieve et al's amendment to the business motion that's resulted in the government having to bring forward plan B on Monday instead of in a few weeks time. That surely qualifies as backbenchers taking control of (at least part of) the process.

 

[toblerone3]

Surely if MPs are going to have a "meaningful" vote on the Brexit deal that should not mean just a vote on Theresa May's deal and if that falls it is a No Deal Brexit. ,'My Way or the Highway' is not a meaningful choice? The government is not in a strong position at the moment.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Where's the lie? She can't. She can say she won't support it, that her party will do all they can to stop it happening but her govt cannot rule it out anymore than bielsa is able to rule out a draw against stoke this weekend.

Agree but there's no way Stoke are getting a point at the weekend, we can all rule that out.

They've been broken by the Mighty Salop.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The lie is that the govt can call parliament together to vote on rescinding A50 whenever it likes right up to 11pm 29 March, and May won't admit that. It's nothing like the football analogy - it doesn't matter at all what the EU does in such a situation, it's between the government and parliament. Crashing out with on deal on 29 March is a conscious, willed decision, as conscious and willed as a decision not to save a drowning person would be for someone with lifeguard qualifications. I didn't drown them, they might say. But if they sat on the edge of the pool and did nothing when they knew full well that they could jump in and save them if they chose, then really they did.

 

[SpackleFrog]

May is trying to rub the blood over everyone with this move. Corbyn is entirely right to refuse to stick his hands in the wound. It's not his gang.

Definitely agree on this - what would be the point of Corbyn anyway if he meets with May and tries to find compromises? His main function is as a symbol that things could be vaguely different. Clearly, the Remaniacs in all the minor parties think they're gonna get something out all this and they're happy to turn fire on Corbyn after demanding and supporting a no confidence vote. If anything comes of these cosy chats then it'll be filthy - there's definitely room for May to tack towards a softer Brexit and abandon the 100 or so Brexiteers as a nuisance. Corbyn should keep his hands clean.

It's so frustrating he tied it to no deal though - could have just said no you're a busted flush, you're totally dishonest and clinging on, you need to resign.

There won't be s Tory split.

Maybe, just maybe, a handful might chuck their toys out the pram. But the internal bickering of the last half a century or so over Europe will just rumble on

How many is a handful? There could be a split of 50, no worries. And space for them to grow in. The ERG aren't getting anything they want, full stop. Boris's career prospects in the Tory party look bleak.