Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[gosub]

this is the centre piece of her administration. this is the culminating moment of brexit. the moment that the agreement she has negotiated is put to the vote. everyone else has said they're fine with it, this is when we find whether the uk's up for it. nothing else theresa may does as prime minister compares in importance to whether this part of her work is crowned with success - or failure. so obvs she has to go if there's a heavy defeat, she's nailed her name to this particular mast.

Not only that but it would be impossible for her to tear her deal up and negotiate something different that might get through Parliament

 

[killer b]

That many? That would be huge and certainly a lot higher than any predictions I've seen. A defeat that large would be hard to salvage anything from.

Lots of places (Guardian & Sky included) are saying 200+

 

[Pickman's model]

Not only that but it would be impossible for her to tear her deal up and negotiate something different that might get through Parliament

yeh, it's now or never. there is no time to renegotiate, no one, not even st jeremy corbyn, would be able to persuade the eu to rip this up and start again.

 

[Mr Moose]

Heard this bullshit a lot recently. The Common Market and the EU are not the same thing. That we got from one to the other without consultation is part of the problem

Not really. Even by the 2010 election, the EU wasn’t on many British people’s list of things that concerned them the most. It’s been a monumental effort to boil everyone’s piss so thoroughly about it.

Free movement is not without complications, but it’s been a scapegoat for austerity. If people living here had some kind of citizen’s rights to housing who would care? Virtually no one gave a care about the Sovereignty of a Parliament determined to do so very little for people in need. Anything big, Health, Education, Housing, Defence policy all still determined by Her Majesty’s Govt.

 

[Pickman's model]

Lots of places (Guardian & Sky included) are saying 200+

frankly i think it will be narrower than that, wouldn't be surprised if downing street are briefing 'oh noes we will be shat on' so a defeat of 60-80 looks by contrast moderate

 

[killer b]

there is no time to renegotiate, no one, not even st jeremy corbyn, would be able to persuade the eu to rip this up and start again.

this isn't true though. If there was a change of administration before the deal is signed they would clearly be open to renegotiation.

 

[gosub]

yeh, it's now or never. there is no time to renegotiate, no one, not even st jeremy corbyn, would be able to persuade the eu to rip this up and start again.

Bollocks, a fresh broom and there is justification for an Art 50 extension. And a fresh tack.

 

[kabbes]

Lots of places (Guardian & Sky included) are saying 200+

I think it’ll either be by loads or it will be really close.

Or it might be somewhat in between. One of those things.

 

[Teaboy]

Lots of places (Guardian & Sky included) are saying 200+

OK, I've missed that. It would be huge.

 

[belboid]

this isn't true though. If there was a change of administration before the deal is signed they would clearly be open to renegotiation.

They have said exactly that, in just so many words. They'd bloody love to renegotiate, if it had a hope of achieving something.

 

[killer b]

I think it’ll either be by loads or it will be really close.

Or it might be somewhat in between. One of those things.

they have an interactive game and everything.

Can you get May's Brexit deal through parliament?

 

[Pickman's model]

this isn't true though. If there was a change of administration before the deal is signed they would clearly be open to renegotiation.

i don't deny that there may be flexibility over elements of the deal, but there is no way on god's green earth that 27 countries and the eu are going to say ok, let's start from the beginning once again. your 'they will clearly be open to renegotiation' isn't true if by renegotiation you mean starting from a clean canvas.

 

[kabbes]

they have an interactive game and everything.

Can you get May's Brexit deal through parliament?

Oh guardian where would we be without you

 

[8ball]

they have an interactive game and everything.

Can you get May's Brexit deal through parliament?

Is it like Flappy Bird?

 

[Pickman's model]

Bollocks, a fresh broom and there is justification for an Art 50 extension. And a fresh tack.

yeh. this extension, how long do you think it will be?

 

[gosub]

yeh. this extension, how long do you think it will be?

6months

 

[8ball]

i don't deny that there may be flexibility over elements of the deal, but there is no way on god's green earth that 27 countries and the eu are going to say ok, let's start from the beginning once again. your 'they will clearly be open to renegotiation' isn't true if by renegotiation you mean starting from a clean canvas.

We just want to go back to the good old days.

 

[8ball]

yeh. this extension, how long do you think it will be?

You've got 24 hours, Callaghan!

 

[Pickman's model]

6months

right. so from the end of march to the end of september. you're living in cloud-cuckoo land if you think that in those six months something new can be negotiated from scratch which will go through all the places it needs to go through. and that's assuming that all the ducks line up.

 

[danny la rouge]

Mark my words.

I think May will lose by 230 votes.

 

[gosub]

Not really. Even by the 2010 election, the EU wasn’t on many British people’s list of things that concerned them the most. It’s been a monumental effort to boil everyone’s piss so thoroughly about it.

Free movement is not without complications, but it’s been a scapegoat for austerity. If people living here had some kind of citizen’s rights to housing who would care? Virtually no one gave a care about the Sovereignty of a Parliament determined to do so very little for people in need. Anything big, Health, Education, Housing, Defence policy all still determined by Her Majesty’s Govt.

Up to 2010 Establishment was still in play down the significance of EU mode, part of the reason remain lost was the cognative dissonance of painting economic meltdown from leaving an organisation that did little more than bendy bananas

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

they have an interactive game and everything.

Can you get May's Brexit deal through parliament?

It really is rather tricky to get the deal through, isn’t it?

 

[gosub]

right. so from the end of march to the end of september. you're living in cloud-cuckoo land if you think that in those six months something new can be negotiated from scratch which will go through all the places it needs to go through. and that's assuming that all the ducks line up.

Would take six months to do Norway thang.

As to cloud cuckoo land define normal in 2019.

 

[chilango]

frankly i think it will be narrower than that, wouldn't be surprised if downing street are briefing 'oh noes we will be shat on' so a defeat of 60-80 looks by contrast moderate

That would be my guess too.

But ...

...these aren't normal times.

 

[Pickman's model]

Would take six months to do Norway thang.

As to cloud cuckoo land define normal in 2019.

could i see your working on the 'norway thang'?

 

[Teaboy]

It really is rather tricky to get the deal through, isn’t it?

Yes it is, isnt it?

I wonder if anyone will abstain tonight.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

If she loses by less that 100 votes she'll consider that a win.

 

[Mr Moose]

Would take six months to do Norway thang.

As to cloud cuckoo land define normal in 2019.

You could be right, but Norway itself could be a stumbling block as it has already said it doesn’t want the UK joining the EEA just to piss around waiting for a better offer.

Better to get a lot more leeway by asking the EU to delay Article Fiddy for a decade or so.

 

[ska invita]

If she loses by less that 100 votes she'll consider that a win.

Why?

 

[Pickman's model]

You could be right, but Norway itself could be a stumbling block as it has already said it doesn’t want the UK joining the EEA just to piss around waiting for a better offer.

Better to get a lot more leeway by asking the EU to delay Article Fiddy for a decade or so.

soz is this eea the european economic area or the european free trade association?