Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Pickman's model]

Why?

because everyone's saying she'll lose by many more votes

 

[Mr Moose]

Why?

Her experience of life is that wearing people down until they succumb sort of works. Worked on Phillip clearly.

 

[ska invita]

because everyone's saying she'll lose by many more votes

VICTORY!!

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Why?

One of her aides explicitly told Nick Ferrari that this morning.

 

[belboid]

If she loses by less that 100 votes she'll consider that a win.

she might. Everyone else would consider it a massive loss that she wont recover from.

 

[Mr Moose]

soz is this eea the european economic area or the european free trade association?

I can never remember. The one Norway doesn’t want us pissing about in.

 

[Pickman's model]

I can never remember. The one Norway doesn’t want us pissing about in.

efta

 

[ska invita]

One of her aides explicitly told Nick Ferrari that this morning.

Thats as may be - its not a victory in any sense of the word, unless you're delusionsal (not you personally) - or more accurately they're briefing that so when she loses by 100 she can say Its Only A Scratch and not stand down when the pressure to do so hits.

"I consider this a victory - onwards!!"
er, no.

 

[Mr Moose]

efta

No that’s a volcano m8.

 

[belboid]

right. so from the end of march to the end of september. you're living in cloud-cuckoo land if you think that in those six months something new can be negotiated from scratch which will go through all the places it needs to go through. and that's assuming that all the ducks line up.

it wouldnt really need to be 'from scratch' tho, will it? The main issues, which have been raised as problems, are the backstop and the lack of any kind of customs union. Sort out the latter and the former falls away. If a new UK government simply agreed to joining the customs union, all problems solved, and the EU would be delighted (with a bit of delay to sort out a non-EFTA way of joining the EEA).

Whether Labour could negotiate a customs union that isn't the customs union is a slightly different matter. JC would need something clever up his sleeve to sort out a CU that didn't involve free movement (which, altho I'd like hm to retain it, he wont)

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

groan - some speculation - which i suspect will turn out to be right - that when may's deal get's booted into touch tomorrow she will try and get an extension of a few months on the withdrawal date so she can go back to the EU. .

I would welcome this. My hungarian nationality is due to arrive in June and I don't really fancy involuntary repatriation, and leaving my husband here.

An extra three months will do nicely.

 

[chilango]

Flicked on the BBC to see if anything ibterintere was happening in the HoC and all I saw was a bunch of self-satisfied smug wankers having a whale of a time in a big self-indulgent circle jerk that they all seemed to enjoying immensely.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Thats as may be - its not a victory in any sense of the word, unless you're delusionsal - or more accurately they're briefing that so when she loses by 100 she can say Its Only A Scratch and not stand down when the pressure to do so hits.

Well, quite.

But as many are expecting >200, <100 will be something of a result. This of course goes against the background of "there is no other deal that the EU will acquiesce to, however Boris or Jez may like to imagine they will'.

It really is this deal (or very close) or no deal.

 

[ska invita]

But as many are expecting >200, <100 will be something of a result. .

My point is, no it won't.

 

[gosub]

Flicked on the BBC to see if anything ibterintere was happening in the HoC and all I saw was a bunch of self-satisfied smug wankers having a whale of a time in a big self-indulgent circle jerk that they all seemed to enjoying immensely.

Stuff starts happening about 7 , chaos by about 9

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

My point is, no it won't.

It's like if you manage to go a full round with Tyson before intensive care calls, rather than 10 seconds...

 

[DotCommunist]

Flicked on the BBC to see if anything ibterintere was happening in the HoC and all I saw was a bunch of self-satisfied smug wankers having a whale of a time in a big self-indulgent circle jerk that they all seemed to enjoying immensely.

is that the npolitics coveage team on the beeb or the MPs? ' 'The creatures outside looked from pig to man'

 

[Pickman's model]

it wouldnt really need to be 'from scratch' tho, will it? The main issues, which have been raised as problems, are the backstop and the lack of any kind of customs union. Sort out the latter and the former falls away. If a new UK government simply agreed to joining the customs union, all problems solved, and the EU would be delighted (with a bit of delay to sort out a non-EFTA way of joining the EEA).

Whether Labour could negotiate a customs union that isn't the customs union is a slightly different matter. JC would need something clever up his sleeve to sort out a CU that didn't involve free movement (which, altho I'd like hm to retain it, he wont)

well, you're rather more sanguine than i am. and between today and any final deal there's a lot of potential slips. let's see what happens this week, which will help determine whether jc gets a run at it at all.

 

[chilango]

Suff starts happening about 7 , chaos by about 9

Chaos has been here a while....and nothing will happen at 7.

Well, nothing that hasn't already happened before Christmas.

What happens to first as tragedy, second as farce, if it was already a farce first time round?

 

[Pickman's model]

Chaos has been here a while....and nothing will happen at 7.

Well, nothing that hasn't already happened before Christmas.

What happens to first as tragedy, second as farce, if it was already a farce first time round?

f-t-f
or
t-f-t

 

[chilango]

is that the npolitics coveage team on the beeb or the MPs? ' 'The creatures outside looked from pig to man'

MPs.

But yeah, could equally have been the journos and commentators.

 

[gosub]

Chaos has been here a while....and nothing will happen at 7.

Well, nothing that hasn't already happened before Christmas.

What happens to first as tragedy, second as farce, if it was already a farce first time round?

get repeated, with trousers round ankles - do you know nothing of British culture?

 

[belboid]

well, you're rather more sanguine than i am. and between today and any final deal there's a lot of potential slips. let's see what happens this week, which will help determine whether jc gets a run at it at all.

well, yeah. Without a change in government, leading to a LAbour/SNP majority of 30+, I dont see anything new being achievable. And even then....

 

[Winot]

it wouldnt really need to be 'from scratch' tho, will it? The main issues, which have been raised as problems, are the backstop and the lack of any kind of customs union. Sort out the latter and the former falls away. If a new UK government simply agreed to joining the customs union, all problems solved, and the EU would be delighted (with a bit of delay to sort out a non-EFTA way of joining the EEA).

Whether Labour could negotiate a customs union that isn't the customs union is a slightly different matter. JC would need something clever up his sleeve to sort out a CU that didn't involve free movement (which, altho I'd like hm to retain it, he wont)

You can be in the/a customs union without free movement (see Turkey). It’s the single market that you’re thinking of.

 

[Pickman's model]

get repeated, with trousers round ankles - do you know nothing of British culture?

and fruit in mouth

 

[ska invita]

It's like if you manage to go a full round with Tyson before intensive care calls, rather than 10 seconds...

Losing by a 100 votes on the key bit of legislature of the last however many years does not win you a Ooh Nearly pat on the head. The Tories are trying to create a narrative to make her inevitable attempt at staying on after getting TROUNCED seem justifiable. It isn't justifiable. Its doublespeak of the highest order.
I expect Nick Ferrari will repeat it as a victory tomorrow.

 

[chilango]

and fruit in mouth

Bin bag round head.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Losing by a 100 votes on the key bit of legislature of the last however many years does not win you a Ooh Nearly pat on the head. The Tories are trying to create a narrative to make her inevitable attempt at staying on after getting TROUNCED seem justifiable. It isn't justifiable. Its doublespeak of the highest order.
I expect Nick Ferrari will repeat it as a victory tomorrow.

Expect so too. Great, inn'it.

 

[belboid]

You can be in the/a customs union without free movement (see Turkey). It’s the single market that you’re thinking of.

Turkey isn't in 'the' customs union (and it took them nigh on a decade to negotiate the one they are in). I'm not sure exactly what the terms of their version is, tho I do know JC thinks it is unsuitable for the UK. The EU doesnt actually want free movement from Turkey tho, whereas it is fine with it from the UK. So, it's doable, but not straightforward.

 

[ska invita]

Expect so too. Great, inn'it.

Not really - LBC is a cesspit