Is Brexit actually going to happen?
- Thread starter Kaka Tim
- Start date
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
What you've just outlined is a negotiating tactic. One that both the EU and UK gov hope to use to get this deal over the line.
Yes any changes will be largely cosmetic but the idea that the EU won't budge on things as that's what they have publicly said is naive. All kinds of statements are made during negotiations, very many/most of them playing to the gallery.
Winot
I wholeheartedley agree with your viewpoint
This is straw man bollocks.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
the EU are not negotiating. they haven't got anyone to negotiate with. Parliament wants conflicting outcomes - from no deal to mays deal to "norway" to no brexit - but none of them can get through. All the EU can do wait and see what the UK finally comes up with.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
I don't think it is. I can't see the People's Vote crowd doing anything other than repeating the same mistakes. They won't win a hypothetical (and still in my view unlikely) 2nd referendum without addressing those very points that even a banker can acknowledge.
TBF I don't think the People's Vote crowd could really be called 'Left remainers'.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
It's straw man firstly because most remainers are perfectly aware of these points.
Secondly, acknowledging reasons why people voted leave doesn't necessarily mean that you think leaving the EU is therefore the right thing to do, or that leaving the EU will do anything about the issues that led to the leave vote.
Righto, predictions / guessing time I reckon.
Lets assume for one minute that May actually has a bigger strategy at play here rather than this deal or nothing. Lets assume that the reason for delaying the vote was to do a lot of work in the background for a strategy that would come into play when she loses. Relatively loyal cabinet colleagues (Rudd & Fox) are sent out to prepare the ground for a series of votes to get a deal through Parliament whilst she plays up the 'death of democracy' angle.
May has to go through with the deal but when it fails I think we'll see a series of votes as just enough waverers on both side of the house cave in and back a version of May's deal. May will then have to go back to Europe and get that agreed which may or may not be achievable but I think this is what the EU negotiating team must be expecting now.
So I guess key to this will be the numbers in the vote. Is she loses by 50 or so votes then that doesn't really seem like an insurmountable problem as all she'd need to do is convince 27 people to change their mind. Losing by 100+ would be a difficult situation.
Lets assume for one minute that May actually has a bigger strategy at play here rather than this deal or nothing. Lets assume that the reason for delaying the vote was to do a lot of work in the background for a strategy that would come into play when she loses. Relatively loyal cabinet colleagues (Rudd & Fox) are sent out to prepare the ground for a series of votes to get a deal through Parliament whilst she plays up the 'death of democracy' angle.
May has to go through with the deal but when it fails I think we'll see a series of votes as just enough waverers on both side of the house cave in and back a version of May's deal. May will then have to go back to Europe and get that agreed which may or may not be achievable but I think this is what the EU negotiating team must be expecting now.
So I guess key to this will be the numbers in the vote. Is she loses by 50 or so votes then that doesn't really seem like an insurmountable problem as all she'd need to do is convince 27 people to change their mind. Losing by 100+ would be a difficult situation.
Flavour
hang the bankers
she's going to lose by maybe 150 votes. this isn't getting through without some really major changes. changes that either A) May says are red lines (e.g. FoM) or B) the EU says are non-starters. the EU i think will call May's bluff and continue to refuse to make concessions to push Britain closer and closer to the No-Deal default... Corbyn's VONC will fail. Can't imagine beyond that. I think revocation of A50 on March 28th is quite possible unless there is an extension agreed, though the EU have said there will be no extension unless there is a "fundamental" (i.e. leadership) changed in the British position
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Fair enough. I was thinking of people like my brother (an SNP member who calls himself a socialist and who supports a second referendum), with whom I’ve been discussing Brexit on our family group chat this morning. He’s not as left as me (he recoils from the term “communist”, and declines to read certain online material I attempt to share with him), but he’d call himself “left”.
It’s hard to know what terms to use these days. I voted Remain, but wouldn’t class myself a “Remainer”, and I would abstain in a 2nd referendum. I don’t think we get anywhere by imagining the two positions on the ballot paper in 2016 represent homogenous tribes, or indeed were the only positions that existed then, far less now.
Your first part is incorrect. It does not prove a “straw man”. Many “Remainers” may well be aware of those points. But they need to be more than aware: they need to address them *if they hope to affect a Remain*.
Your second part is itself a straw man: I’m not arguing that addressing those points necessitates advocating leaving the EU.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
She'll lose by 86 votes.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Oh you're a poor sport.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
The post concerned referred to the quote from a banker, saying that even this banker 'gets it' where most remainers don't.
I think most remainers 'get it' as the quoted banker does. Remainers may well be vague on the means of addressing the issues, but no more so than the quoted banker, who is saying no more than 'something must be done'.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
It said “left Remainers” need to look at themselves in that regard. I think they do.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
& especially given they got the result they wanted as a result of a second referendum.There's a certain amusement inhearing some of those opposed to second referendum arguing that you can't keep voting till you get the result you want, whilst at the same time that appears to be exactly the strategy of Theresa May in the Commons
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
how goes the debate?
gosub
~#
Theresa who?????There's a certain amusement inhearing some of those opposed to second referendum arguing that you can't keep voting till you get the result you want, whilst at the same time that appears to be exactly the strategy of Theresa May in the Commons
T & P
|-o-| (-o-) |-o-|
I think the Ayes have it.
gosub
~#
Heard this bullshit a lot recently. The Common Market and the EU are not the same thing. That we got from one to the other without consultation is part of the problem
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
harry may would have been a far better pm
That many? That would be huge and certainly a lot higher than any predictions I've seen. A defeat that large would be hard to salvage anything from.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
I keep seeing people mentioning how many callaghan was defeated by and that surely she must go after this defeat if it is large. But she isn't going to is she? Because its not written that she formally has to.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
this is the centre piece of her administration. this is the culminating moment of brexit. the moment that the agreement she has negotiated is put to the vote. everyone else has said they're fine with it, this is when we find whether the uk's up for it. nothing else theresa may does as prime minister compares in importance to whether this part of her work is crowned with success - or failure. so obvs she has to go if there's a heavy defeat, she's nailed her name to this particular mast.
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