Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[littlebabyjesus]

Ah, a 'not going to happen' solution.

We'll see. A lot can happen between now and March.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

yeh. and when she doesn't resign?

If (when) her deal gets voted down she'll go, surely?

 

[killer b]

TBH I'm coming round to ska invita 's view that something like May's deal will go through eventually. It's the path of least(ish) resistance.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

If (when) her deal gets voted down she'll go, surely?

Yep. Hence all the delaying tactics.

 

[Pickman's model]

If (when) her deal gets voted down she'll go, surely?

you'd hope so. but not a guarantee

 

[teuchter]

TBH I'm coming round to ska invita 's view that something like May's deal will go through eventually. It's the path of least(ish) resistance.

The ultimate in the 'design by committee' genre of decision making.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

TBH I'm coming round to ska invita 's view that something like May's deal will go through eventually. It's the path of least(ish) resistance.

How do we get "something like" her deal though? She's pinned herself to it and the EU seem to not be moving...

 

[killer b]

(Actually, no deal is the path of least resistance. But I think in the end it'll scare enough MPs to cobble a majority together for May's deal)

 

[not-bono-ever]

Watching some Tory drone on telly this morning I get the uneasy feeling that possible gaps in the agri sector may be plugged by ersatz press ganging of brits

 

[killer b]

How do we get "something like" her deal though? She's pinned herself to it and the EU seem to not be moving...

'something like her deal' could mean 'her deal'.

 

[Pickman's model]

'something like her deal' could mean 'her deal'.

especially as the europeans seem so reluctant to revisit the entire negotiation thing

 

[killer b]

'something like her deal' could mean 'her deal'.

Or it could mean something like her deal, renegotiated with different red lines by her successor.

 

[Teaboy]

(Actually, no deal is the path of least resistance. But I think in the end it'll scare enough MPs to cobble a majority together for May's deal)

It must be what May thinks, otherwise why bother delaying the vote? I guess she might just fancy Christmas at Chequers.

 

[mojo pixy]

Committee of national salvation

Committe of Public Safety, surely. After all, virtue without terror is impotent.

 

[killer b]

especially as the europeans seem so reluctant to revisit the entire negotiation thing

I'm not sure I really believe this. It's not just the British indulging in brinkmanship.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Theresa will have a great Xmas- she is doing God’s bidding after all

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'm not sure I really believe this. It's not just the British indulging in brinkmanship.

I think I believe it to the extent that any renegotiation would require the UK to change its 'red lines'. And that would require May to resign first. TBH any solution other than 'May's deal' requires May to resign first.

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm not sure I really believe this. It's not just the British indulging in brinkmanship.

it's the europeans saying no more negotiation

 

[killer b]

I think I believe it to the extent that any renegotiation would require the UK to change its 'red lines'. And that would require May to resign first. TBH any solution other than 'May's deal' requires May to resign first.

Why? She's changed her mind on countless things without shame or real consequence. Why not this?

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

'something like her deal' could mean 'her deal'.

But do the numbers stack up? Like you say, part of the problem seems to be that every outcome doesn’t seem to have enough bodies behind it.

 

[sleaterkinney]

I think I believe it to the extent that any renegotiation would require the UK to change its 'red lines'. And that would require May to resign first. TBH any solution other than 'May's deal' requires May to resign first.

What red lines?.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Why? She's changed her mind on countless things without shame or real consequence. Why not this?

That's a fair point. She'd need never to present her deal to parliament in that case, because it won't be passed and if it is defeated she has to go. And tbh I don't really see that as much less of a climb down than revoking A50 altogether. Rudd's been pushing Norway+, and that would mean removing May's biggest and, according to her, most important red line, which is free movement.

 

[killer b]

But do the numbers stack up? Like you say, part of the problem seems to be that every outcome doesn’t seem to have enough bodies behind it.

They absolutely don't stack up today. But for there to be anything other than no deal something has to shift, and IMO currently the direction with most give - which still isn't a lot - is towards May's deal (or something like it).

 

[killer b]

if it is defeated she has to go.

Why?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

What red lines?.

Ending free movement of people is the main one. There are others, such as withdrawal from the jurisdiction of the ECJ. They're the reason May's deal is so shit.

 

[Sprocket.]

Theresa will have a great Xmas- she is doing God’s bidding after all

Maybe, but the devil is in the detail.

 

[sleaterkinney]

Ending free movement of people is the main one. There are others, such as withdrawal from the jurisdiction of the ECJ. They're the reason May's deal is so shit.

She's given up on both of those in the withdrawal agreement.

 

[andysays]

I was assuming that the government takes it to parliament - my understanding of the ECJ ruling is that its judgement's requirements would be interpreted here (given our lack of a written constitution) as a vote in parliament rather than merely a government decree. It would be a massive climb down, clearly, and it would have to happen after May has resigned, but once May resigns, everything is back in play.

Someone really should start that 'Fantasy Brexit scenarios' thread...

 

[brogdale]

They absolutely don't stack up today. But for there to be anything other than no deal something has to shift, and IMO currently the direction with most give - which still isn't a lot - is towards May's deal (or something like it).

This (i think)...allied with the hope that she/they can split apart the PLP. With the right of the PLP persuaded to back May's 'deal' in the national interest, casting the Corbyn loyal rump as the enemies of the people whose only answer seems to be the remainian dream of ref II.

We could mock up the Daily Mail headlines if we could be bothered.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Someone really should start that 'Fantasy Brexit scenarios' thread...

The fantasy scenario is crashing out with no deal on 29 March. My scenario would happen before that could happen.