Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[ska invita]

So hard Brexit or no Brexit. I'm picking a hard one.

Better late than never No-deal Brexit plans put 3,500 troops on standby

#HardMen4AHardBrexit #BackOurBrexitBoys #CucksSuckEUDick

 

[SpackleFrog]

I'm just clinging to the hope that they're only talking about it in order to make any other alternative whatsoever seem better.

That suggests a plan. There is no plan.

There is a plan. The plan is to scare the bejaysus out of people so they accept the alternative.

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm just clinging to the hope that they're only talking about it in order to make any other alternative whatsoever seem better.

My favoured outcome is the cabinet's heads on spikes outside the banqueting house on whitehall

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm just clinging to the hope that they're only talking about it in order to make any other alternative whatsoever seem better.

In number ten theresa may is dancing round in a paroxysm of agony shrieking what can we do what can we do while michael gove sticks pins into a voodoo doll with boris johnson's raggedy hair

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'm just clinging to the hope that they're only talking about it in order to make any other alternative whatsoever seem better.

Like spacklefrog said, these are cheap, nasty scare tactics. I don't believe for one second that no deal will happen. They would call an emergency sitting of Parliament and vote to revoke A50 before letting that happen. They cannot claim that this is not their fault if it does happen.

 

[DexterTCN]

Like spacklefrog said, these are cheap, nasty scare tactics. I don't believe for one second that no deal will happen. They would call an emergency sitting of Parliament and vote to revoke A50 before letting that happen. They cannot claim that this is not their fault if it does happen.

So your belief is based on the premise of tories admitting they were wrong?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

So your belief is based on the premise of tories admitting they were wrong?

First, there would be calls from all quarters to stop it happening. Second, there very well could, probably would, be rioting, and governments hate losing control of the means to violence above all else. Third, they won't want to go down in history as the arseholes who let that happen. Fourth, enough tories would calculate that allowing this to happen really could finish the tories off (yes, I know lots of people have said that in the past and it hasn't happened, but it can and does happen to long-established political parties and it could happen here).

Oh, and no doubt they would try to blame Labour for the failure of brexit.

 

[DexterTCN]

First, there would be calls from all quarters to stop it happening. Second, there very well could, probably would, be rioting, and governments hate losing control of the means to violence above all else. Third, they won't want to go down in history as the arseholes who let that happen. Fourth, enough tories would calculate that allowing this to happen really could finish the tories off (yes, I know lots of people have said that in the past and it hasn't happened, but it can and does happen to long-established political parties and it could happen here).

Oh, and no doubt they would try to blame Labour for the failure of brexit.

First...not necessarily...bbc, sun, express, sky, telegraph, corbyn, the pub landlord...who?

Second...they're getting the army together and rioters would very quickly be demonized by First.

Third...they are the arseholes of history, doesn't seemed to have mattered so far, they've been voted in more than anyone.

Fourth...their vote would grow, if you step back and look at the way things are.

Labour are complicit in this.

I'm not saying it will happen...I'm saying I don't see any convincing reason for it not to happen.

 

[ska invita]

Like spacklefrog said, these are cheap, nasty scare tactics. I

Not cheap. £2Billion supposedly.
Still, sets a nice atmosphere for Xmas.

 

[Poi E]

Tories may as well go hard Brexit. Revoking Article 50 won't help their electoral chances. Corbyn only wants to fight on a post-brexit battleground. Crash out by default.

 

[Sprocket.]

Everyday, I become more enamoured with proposing a resurgence in defenestration and throwing the lot of them, out of the windows into the Thames.

 

[Poi E]

Having the legislature in the largest city of the largest country is a silly idea.

 

[tim]

Maybe time to kickstart a Black and Tan style force of patriotic irregulars to ensure the streets are under control

I was born on a Weybridge Crescent Where the artisanal baker made regular deliveries,
And those elderly Brexiteer feet they tramped all our buddleia
And each and every night papa came home sozzled
He'd invite theFeathersonehaugh's outside with this chorus:
Come out ye Black and Tans bounders, come out and fight me like a man,
Not in an oikish Northern clog wearing way

 

[Raheem]

First...not necessarily...bbc, sun, express, sky, telegraph, corbyn, the pub landlord...who?

Second...they're getting the army together and rioters would very quickly be demonized by First.

Third...they are the arseholes of history, doesn't seemed to have mattered so far, they've been voted in more than anyone.

Fourth...their vote would grow, if you step back and look at the way things are.

Labour are complicit in this.

I'm not saying it will happen...I'm saying I don't see any convincing reason for it not to happen.

It won't happen because everyone with direct influence over it understands what a complete disaster it would be (with the likely exception of a small number of MPs who would struggle to understand the plot of Herbie Rides Again) and it is possible to stop it. Those two ingredients make a complete recipe. The idea that it could happen by default is an illusion. When they come to the bridge, they will need to make a decision about whether to cross it or not.

 

[ska invita]

Tories may as well go hard Brexit. Revoking Article 50 won't help their electoral chances. Corbyn only wants to fight on a post-brexit battleground. Crash out by default.

If you think unplanned unprepared couple of months to sort it back of an envelope crash out brexit is a vote winner you couldn't be more wrong.
It'll kill the Tories reputation for a generation.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

And there as me thinking it was remainers who were supposedly pushing “project fear”.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The idea that it could happen by default is an illusion. When they come to the bridge, they will need to make a decision about whether to cross it or not.

Yep. The day before, they can call an emergency meeting of parliament and stop it. This much is completely clear now. Actually, I just checked and it happens at 11pm. They can call it off that evening - quick vote, phone call to Brussels.

If it comes to that, I'll be marching down to parliament that day. So will hundreds of thousands and quite probably millions of other people. It won't happen.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Yep. The day before, they can call an emergency meeting of parliament and stop it. This much is completely clear now. Actually, I just checked and it happens at 11pm. They can call it off that evening - quick vote, phone call to Brussels.

If it comes to that, I'll be marching down to parliament that day. So will hundreds of thousands and quite probably millions of other people. It won't happen.

yep. no fucking way will it be allowed to happen.

 

[Poi E]

"no fucking way will it be allowed to happen". By whom?

 

[killer b]

The Tory rebels who will vote to bring down the government if... oh.

 

[killer b]

Face it lads, we're fucked if you're expecting owt from those cunts.

 

[ska invita]

I dont usually look at twitter but in just a few scrolls I count 5 Tory MPs who said they'll leave the party if No Deal becomes policy

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The Tory rebels who will vote to bring down the government if... oh.

The ERG twats (and perhaps the DUP) are the only people in parliament who would not oppose 'no deal'. That's why it won't happen. It's never been a real possibility. If anything the ECJ ruling perhaps makes grandstanding and brinksmanship more possible now because they know for sure that they can't do no deal by accident. But that doesn't make no deal any more possible.

 

[Kaka Tim]

"no fucking way will it be allowed to happen". By whom?

everyone from the media, to the CBI, the TUC, the civil service, the entire public sector, every manufacturer and retailer who relies on EU imports and exports, most of the mps in parliament and masses of people demonstrating on the streets will be screaming at the government not to do it.
And the government dont want to do it anyway. its insane.

 

[zahir]

If a deal isn’t agreed what would the mechanism be for avoiding a ‘no deal’ brexit?

 

[Yossarian]

Everyday, I become more enamoured with proposing a resurgence in defenestration and throwing the lot of them, out of the windows into the Thames.

I'd do it from the upper floors of the Shard to be on the safe side.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

If a deal isn’t agreed what would the mechanism be for avoiding a ‘no deal’ brexit?

Either ask for A50 to be extended - requires agreement from EU. Or A vote in parliament to revoke A50, which requires no permission from EU. It can't happen by accident basically.

 

[xenon]

Either ask for A50 to be extended - requires agreement from EU. Or A vote in parliament to revoke A50, which requires no permission from EU. It can't happen by accident basically.

If there is no majority for either of those things it can happen. Your faith in parliament is greater than mine.

 

[xenon]

Everyday, I become more enamoured with proposing a resurgence in defenestration and throwing the lot of them, out of the windows into the Thames.

A shame to pollute the river though.

 

[redsquirrel]

One point is that this can happen even if most people do not want it. In Austria-Hungary, Yugoslavia and even the Soviet Union, most people were afraid of life on the outside and initially pursued their national goals within the familiar confines of the federal entity. Another is that, when the final collapse does come, it can happen so quickly that almost everyone is caught unawares. Even in 1989, few people foresaw the collapse of Yugoslavia or the Soviet Union, which is one reason why malcontent members pushed their demands so hard.

The above is from a 2015 piece about the collapse of the EU.
But the general point, that paths that have only minority support (or are even unpopular), can occur as groups take a series of steps, each of which they view as correct only to end up "forced" to position they did not want.

I don't think the UK leaving the EU without some type of deal is the most likely outcome, and it's clear that May's tactics are to position the current deal as the only alternative to staying in the EU or "no deal", but with different groups all trying to fight for their outcomes and all engaging in brinkmanship things can spiral out of control.