Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Poi E]

Fourth, enough tories would calculate that allowing this to happen really could finish the tories off (yes, I know lots of people have said that in the past and it hasn't happened, but it can and does happen to long-established political parties and it could happen here).

The UK will be finished before the Tories are.

 

[andysays]

Either ask for A50 to be extended - requires agreement from EU. Or A vote in parliament to revoke A50, which requires no permission from EU. It can't happen by accident basically.

The way May has chosen to play it, there will be very little time to get agreement for an extension, and there is a chance that some countries will take the chance to put conditions on their permission. At this point, I wouldn't assume that any extension is necessarily a quick and easy thing to arrange.

 

[Poi E]

Talks of an extension must be the new "government of national unity".

 

[Supine]

At this point, I wouldn't assume that any extension is necessarily a quick and easy thing to arrange.

I suspect the agreement to extend is already being finalised so it'll just need signatures to take affect. A lot of stuff goes on at a level we don't hear about.

 

[Pickman's model]

I suspect the agreement to extend is already being finalised so it'll just need signatures to take affect. A lot of stuff goes on at a level we don't hear about.

You hope

 

[Pickman's model]

Yep. The day before, they can call an emergency meeting of parliament and stop it. This much is completely clear now. Actually, I just checked and it happens at 11pm. They can call it off that evening - quick vote, phone call to Brussels.

If it comes to that, I'll be marching down to parliament that day. So will hundreds of thousands and quite probably millions of other people. It won't happen.

So pleased you've caught up with me at last about a50

 

[Pickman's model]

Talks of an extension must be the new "government of national unity".

Committee of national salvation

 

[Lucy Fur]

Committee of national salvation

C.O.N.S. ?

 

[Pickman's model]

C.O.N.S. ?

 

[Ranbay]

 

[DexterTCN]

I suspect the agreement to extend is already being finalised so it'll just need signatures to take affect. A lot of stuff goes on at a level we don't hear about.

Extend for what, though?

 

[andysays]

I suspect the agreement to extend is already being finalised so it'll just need signatures to take affect. A lot of stuff goes on at a level we don't hear about.

Yeah, because everything else about the whole Brexit process has been so well planned and organised in plenty of time so there's no last minute panic...

 

[Pickman's model]

Extend for what, though?

time to persuade everyone we're not leaving

 

[Pickman's model]

Yeah, because everything else about the whole Brexit process has been so well planned and organised in plenty of time so there's no last minute panic...

yeh the master criminal always has a master plan and the tories' is to look fuckwitted and disorganised until the very last minute when they will snatch victory defeat from the jaws of defeat victory

 

[Sprocket.]

time to persuade everyone we're not leaving

Time to persuade everyone it was just bants!

 

[DexterTCN]

 

[Sprocket.]

They could just put coppers in fatigues.
Payback for the eighties.

 

[MickiQ]

I suspect the agreement to extend is already being finalised so it'll just need signatures to take affect. A lot of stuff goes on at a level we don't hear about.

And then what?, they've spent the last two and a half years do nothing but faff around, if they extend it by 12 months it's hard to conceive they will do anything other than more faffing around.

 

[andysays]

yeh the master criminal always has a master plan and the tories' is to look fuckwitted and disorganised until the very last minute when they will snatch victory defeat from the jaws of defeat victory

But surely everyone knows that there's always a fatal flaw in the master plan of even the most masterful master criminal, and I'm pretty sure May doesn't reach that standard

 

[Pickman's model]

But surely everyone knows that there's always a fatal flaw in the master plan of even the most masterful master criminal, and I'm pretty sure May doesn't reach that standard

yeh she's got big ideas but not the ability to carry them out

 

[killer b]

I dont usually look at twitter but in just a few scrolls I count 5 Tory MPs who said they'll leave the party if No Deal becomes policy

Tory MPs say all sorts of shit on twitter.

Here's Soubry saying on twitter that she definitely won't vote to bring down the government.

Which is it?

 

[weltweit]

The only way Brexit might not happen is if 1) there was a second referendum which seems unlikely and 2) that remain was on the ballot paper which seems unlikely and 3) that a majority of voters voted remain which implies a big swing from the last vote which seems unlikely!

 

[brogdale]

The only way Brexit might not happen is if 1) there was a second referendum which seems unlikely and 2) that remain was on the ballot paper which seems unlikely and 3) that a majority of voters voted remain which implies a big swing from the last vote which seems unlikely!

Yeah, but we now know that A50 can be revoked unilaterally and that March 29 results from domestic legislation that can be repealed. I know both of these are politically unlikely, but they represent a potential exit from Brexit without necessitating another referendum.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The only way Brexit might not happen is if 1) there was a second referendum which seems unlikely and 2) that remain was on the ballot paper which seems unlikely and 3) that a majority of voters voted remain which implies a big swing from the last vote which seems unlikely!

Points 2 and 3 are wrong. If there were a second ref, remain would definitely be on the ballot paper. It is 'leave with no deal' that would struggle to get on there. And it would only take a small swing to change the result from last time, which is very possible.

This also isn't the only way brexit might not happen. IMO it's not even the most likely way brexit might not happen. If article 50 is revoked by parliament, brexit doesn't happen. May's brinksmanship, delays and attempt at a new Project Fear only increase the likelihood of revoking A50, quite probably in an unseemly, panicked haste. It would be an appropriately chaotic and incompetent end to this phase of the mess.

 

[killer b]

There's loads of ways Brexit could be cancelled without another referendum - a revocation of article 50, a general election where the lib dems/SNP hold the balance of power and demand it for their support, etc etc... the only issue is - as with a second referendum itself, and every shade of possible brexit - no-one has the numbers to make any of them happen.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

Committee of national salvation

committee (for) uniting nation's territories

 

[killer b]

If article 50 is revoked by parliament

How could this happen, without support from the government?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

How could this happen, without support from the government?

I was assuming that the government takes it to parliament - my understanding of the ECJ ruling is that its judgement's requirements would be interpreted here (given our lack of a written constitution) as a vote in parliament rather than merely a government decree. It would be a massive climb down, clearly, and it would have to happen after May has resigned, but once May resigns, everything is back in play.

 

[killer b]

Ah, a 'not going to happen' solution.

 

[Pickman's model]

I was assuming that the government takes it to parliament - my understanding of the ECJ ruling is that its judgement's requirements would be interpreted here (given our lack of a written constitution) as a vote in parliament rather than merely a government decree. It would be a massive climb down, clearly, and it would have to happen after May has resigned, but once May resigns, everything is back in play.

yeh. and when she doesn't resign?