Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[8ball]

Forrin. That's the nationality. Living on top of one another. Smelly food. You know the type.

I don't like to be uncharitable, but it looks that way at first glance.

 

[agricola]

I've been out all night since writing that post, so I might have missed developments. But anyway, my logic was that was another step - she got it through cabinet, they missed the 48 letters and now she avoided the vote in parliament. When it does come back to a vote, the logic might be 'look, look, we crash out in x days. Vote for this or.. wasteland'. She's put the vote off, but she might have put it off to a point where chronological desperation works in her favour.

That is what she may be trying to do, but then again this is someone whose record as Home Secretary and as Prime Minister is one of fairly consistent wrongness.

If she is dangling the prospect of no deal vs this deal in front of the ERG and DUP, it makes them think there is a possibility of no deal (which they want), and the consequent weakness of the Government keeps Labour keen to try to defeat it. The weakness also makes the Tory remainers / soft Brexit crowd emboldened (well emboldened as in them going on TV, not actually voting against most of it) to push their ideas, as they recognize that with Opposition support they can plausibly win votes as well. As a policy it basically unites the opposition to the deal against it, making it impossible to pass (as we are seeing) and resulting in the odd circumstance that we find ourselves in of a Government having to deal with an opposition that has a majority of probably more than a hundred.

The only way she could ever pass this is to instead threaten Brexit itself (ie: by making it a contest of her deal vs her withdrawing Article 50); if she does that successfully (and it will be very difficult) then the ERG / DUP crowd are perhaps going to be less likely to rebel, she is more likely to pick up the Lexit crowd and the likes of Grieve and Soubry can then get to decide between loyalty to the Party and stopping Brexit without a referendum (a decision for which we all know the outcome). In the short to medium term it would probably trash the party, but then it is going to be trashed anyway.

 

[8ball]

<snip>

I may be wrong, but I wouldn't count too much on Soubry's loyalty to the party.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

“The anger of the remain side” thing is it’s only the “privileged elitists” that IME tend to think a vote should be overturned on their say so. This certainly doesn’t apply to all- I’d even go out on a limb and say most- remain voters, and I know a fair number that are disgusted at the idea that it should be overturned. I’d be interested to know what would trigger this anger given the majority voted leave and U.K. leaving would be a logical follow through from that point. Nah, “the anger of remain voters” I don’t buy it and I certainly don’t see it outside of the twitter bubble.
It would be more passive aggression from the same FBPE cunts.

 

[8ball]

“The anger of the remain side” thing is it’s only the “privileged elitists” that IME tend to think a vote should be overturned on their say so. This certainly doesn’t apply to all- I’d even go out on a limb and say most- remain voters, and I know a fair number that are disgusted at the idea that it should be overturned. I’d be interested to know what would trigger this anger given the majority voted leave and U.K. leaving would be a logical follow through from that point. Nah, “the anger of remain voters” I don’t buy it and I certainly don’t see it outside of the twitter bubble.
It would be more passive aggression from the same FBPE cunts.

I feel really ignorant, but I had to look up what FBPE meant.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

I feel really ignorant, but I had to look up what FBPE meant.

No you’re not ignorant, you’re sane

 

[8ball]

No you’re not ignorant, you’re sane

I'm not well up on this Twitterspeak.

#oldster #uselesseater

 

[two sheds]

I feel really ignorant, but I had to look up what FBPE meant.

Florida Board of Professional Engineers

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

I'm not well up on this Twitterspeak.

#oldster #uselesseater

You won’t believe what hashtags they came up with next!

 

[two sheds]

shouldn't that have no spaces, and a hashtag?

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Florida Board of Professional Engineers

Find bored pompous elephants.

 

[8ball]

Find bored pompous elephants.

Fetch big pie, eejit!

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Fetch big pie, eejit!

Feart by prick’s effort!

 

[8ball]

Feart by prick’s effort!

I liked that, but looking up "feart" it's a bit worrying.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

I liked that, but looking up "feart" it's a bit worrying.

Hey you’re not scotch!

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

When Scots say “scotch” it’s not racist

 

[8ball]

Hey you’re not scotch!

I might be a tiny bit Scotch!

 

[The Fornicator]

Forrin. That's the nationality. Living on top of one another. Smelly food. You know the type.

Creepy, stalking guy slowly morphs into over-invested, evangelical smeary remainer: you really swallowed those virtue pills hard. It's part of your identity, right? Criticism of it is like criticism of your extended family? All these lovely people from all of Europe serving you metropolitan coffee and validating your life choices and your open-hearted warmth. I know, I know, it's so nice to have everything in your comfortable, liberal life validated.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

I might be a tiny bit Scotch!

Drink more uisge beatha, mo chompanach

 

[8ball]

Creepy, stalking guy slowly morphs into over-invested, evangelical smeary remainer: you really swallowed those virtue pills hard. It's part of your identity, right? Criticism of it is like criticism of your extended family? All these lovely people from all of Europe serving you metropolitan coffee and validating your life choices and your open-hearted warmth. I know, I know, it's so nice to have everything in your comfortable, liberal life validated.

So what did you mean?

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Get yer chairs oot 8ball, game is back on. Sweet and salted low calorie popcorn for me!

 

[pocketscience]

I don't like to be uncharitable, but it looks that way at first glance.

So what did you mean?

There is of course another angle to view it. That within the glorious EU half the younger southern citizens* have all gone and made themselves utterly poverty-stricken, so now have to enjoy their basic fundamental human rights by leaving their family villas overlooking a Mediterranean beach, to take up residence in sub-sub-sub-letted garden sheds in places like Catford, or Grantham, with half a dozen other unfortunate souls just to be exploited for a minimum wage working in a shit job with no perspectives.
All in the name of integration and freedom of movement.
Perhaps?

*I personally much prefer their smelly food to ours, and also envy their darker skin over my pasty celtic hue - just to clear that up before the usual barrage of 'oi racist' from camp remain

 

[8ball]

Drink more uisge beatha, mo chompanach

I've possibly had enough already.

 

[Wilf]

That is what she may be trying to do, but then again this is someone whose record as Home Secretary and as Prime Minister is one of fairly consistent wrongness.

If she is dangling the prospect of no deal vs this deal in front of the ERG and DUP, it makes them think there is a possibility of no deal (which they want), and the consequent weakness of the Government keeps Labour keen to try to defeat it. The weakness also makes the Tory remainers / soft Brexit crowd emboldened (well emboldened as in them going on TV, not actually voting against most of it) to push their ideas, as they recognize that with Opposition support they can plausibly win votes as well. As a policy it basically unites the opposition to the deal against it, making it impossible to pass (as we are seeing) and resulting in the odd circumstance that we find ourselves in of a Government having to deal with an opposition that has a majority of probably more than a hundred.

The only way she could ever pass this is to instead threaten Brexit itself (ie: by making it a contest of her deal vs her withdrawing Article 50); if she does that successfully (and it will be very difficult) then the ERG / DUP crowd are perhaps going to be less likely to rebel, she is more likely to pick up the Lexit crowd and the likes of Grieve and Soubry can then get to decide between loyalty to the Party and stopping Brexit without a referendum (a decision for which we all know the outcome). In the short to medium term it would probably trash the party, but then it is going to be trashed anyway.

I can see what you mean, of course. It's a multidimensional slide rule, every time she drifts one way she alienates at least one group - and in complex ways. My point was more about the erg and wider tory opposition and, just as much, Labour. They have yet again failed to achieve any purchase and the further it goes on - January? February? - we move closer to the out door. She's now going to enter into discussions with euro leaders and will come back with some farty drips around the backstop. But when we get to the vote, it becomes harder and harder that a) there's time for a proper re-negotiation or B) ref2 or indeed a gen election.

Admittedly, there may be points between now and then where the opposition and brexiteers are able to exert purchase on a proxy issue, but unless they get really canny she may well stumble through to 'her' big vote in Jan/Feb. She's fucked, has no authority, is breaching most rules of parliamentary accountability, but she may win out.

 

[8ball]

There is of course another angle to view it. That within the glorious EU has half the younger southern citizens* have all gone and made themselves utterly poverty-stricken, so now have to enjoy their basic fundamental human rights by leaving their family villas overlooking a Mediterranean beach, to take up residence in sub-sub-sub-letted garden shed in Catford with half a dozen other unfortunate souls, just to be exploited at a minimum wage working in a shit job with no perspectives. All in the name of integration and freedom of movement.

*I personally much prefer their smelly food to ours, and also envy their darker skin over my pasty celtic hue - just to clear that up before the usual barrage of 'oi racist' from camp remain

Worse than Hitler.

 

[two sheds]

Creepy, stalking guy slowly morphs into over-invested, evangelical smeary remainer: you really swallowed those virtue pills hard. It's part of your identity, right? Criticism of it is like criticism of your extended family? All these lovely people from all of Europe serving you metropolitan coffee and validating your life choices and your open-hearted warmth. I know, I know, it's so nice to have everything in your comfortable, liberal life validated.

Reasoned debate at last

 

[8ball]

It's a multidimensional slide rule...

I got one of them last Christmas.
Was trying to do basic multiplication and got a phone call from a woman in Tokyo telling me to stop turning her lights on and off.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

There is of course another angle to view it. That within the glorious EU half the younger southern citizens* have all gone and made themselves utterly poverty-stricken, so now have to enjoy their basic fundamental human rights by leaving their family villas overlooking a Mediterranean beach, to take up residence in sub-sub-sub-letted garden shed in Catford with half a dozen other unfortunate souls, just to be exploited at a minimum wage working in a shit job with no perspectives. All in the name of integration and freedom of movement.

*I personally much prefer their smelly food to ours, and also envy their darker skin over my pasty celtic hue - just to clear that up before the usual barrage of 'oi racist' from camp remain

Bagging “my pasty Celtic hue”
It’s shit, my faether and that have the likely gypsy related darker skin but an inch of sun touches me and I BURN ON THE SPOT

 

[The Fornicator]

There is of course another angle to view it. That within the glorious EU half the younger southern citizens* have all gone and made themselves utterly poverty-stricken, so now have to enjoy their basic fundamental human rights by leaving their family villas overlooking a Mediterranean beach, to take up residence in sub-sub-sub-letted garden sheds in places like Catford or Grantham with half a dozen other unfortunate souls, just to be exploited at a minimum wage working in a shit job with no perspectives. All in the name of integration and freedom of movement.
Perhaps?

*I personally much prefer their smelly food to ours, and also envy their darker skin over my pasty celtic hue - just to clear that up before the usual barrage of 'oi racist' from camp remain

Yep, to see how so many live. People leaving London because it's too expensive yet somehow the girl from the Balkans somewhere rocks up for her 12-hour shift in the local coffee shop every day, at eight quid an hour. We are the world, lets join hands everyone.

 

[DotCommunist]

It's a multidimensional slide rule

sonic screwdriver?