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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


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Does anyone know which reports are coming out on Wednesday? I have heard rumours within the party (and at this point they are rumours) that if the reports show massive economic damage to the country Labour will take a hard revoke Article 50 stance.

I expected them to do this as some point and with the withdrawal date fast approaching it is now or never I guess. All about playing the long game whilst this Tories tear themselves apart.
These like your rumours that a massive scandal story was going to break on UKIP?

Where are these rumours coming from? Members? Backbenchers? The Shadow Cabinet? It sounds like absolute bollocks to me. Labour's purposely ill-defined stance has done them pretty well so far why the hell would they suddenly decide to make a huge U-turn and (attempt to) stop the UK leaving the EU?
 
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These like your rumours that a massive scandal story was going to break on UKIP?

Where are these rumours coming from? Members? Backbenchers? The Shadow Cabinet? It sounds like absolute bollocks to me. Labour's purposely ill-defined stance has done them pretty well so far why the hell would they suddenly decide to make a huge U-turn and (attempt to) stop the UK leaving the EU?

Rumours, as I stated. it might be bollocks, or it might be not be. I guess we will see after the papers are published.
 
Revocation is a reasonable component of a soft Brexit stance; if the conclusion is EEA + a CU, and immediate negotiations with EFTA, then we’ll need more than 15 months. Stopping the clock is a better way to do that than hoping for an extension.

It’s also compatible with a second referendum position, especially if the first one is no longer believed to have been “free and fair”. So there are a whole lot of ways for revocation to be in the Labour lexicon without going full remainist.
 

Hope the rumours are accurate, anyway. Not that it reflects poorly on you or your source if the 58 reports are published, they predict disaster, and Labour equivocates. There must be a dozen different strategic plans, each with some claim to authority, floating around.
 
This sums up brexit better than anything I've seen so far. Literally.
True enough. There are entrenched remainers & entrenched leavers. Then there are those of us with mixed feelings. I certainly don’t like the EU. It is undemocratic & neoliberal. Right now they are acting like dictators. Instead of respecting a democratic vote from a member state & trying to work with that member state to endure the best outcome for us all living in the same continent they appear determined to do us down. They appear to be ignoring the 48% that voted remain.

However I do think it is not really worth it when what we have trade wise works ok but staying in the customs union means we are not really leaving so the brexiteers say. There is no solution I don’t think. We either say fuck’em & walk away without paying a penny or we stay in or in the customs union at least. If the next Labour government wants to borrow to invest & build a million council houses then we will still need free movement of people to come here & build them.

So really if the whole thing was cancelled I would be ok with that as well. I think with brexit is absolutely fine to sit on the fence. One does not to be for or against brexit.
 
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Hope the rumours are accurate, anyway. Not that it reflects poorly on you or your source if the 58 reports are published, they predict disaster, and Labour equivocates. There must be a dozen different strategic plans, each with some claim to authority, floating around.
I’m sure there are plenty working behind the scenes on both sides of the channel to stop or mitigate brexit at least to the extent we remain in the customs union. They will probably make themselves heard in the coming months. As far as Labour is concerned though the bigger the disaster brexit is the better their chances of a landslide victory at next GE I would have thought?
 
This arrant stupidity about the EU’s position from people who don’t understand why the four freedoms are indivisible, or why customs union has to be accompanied by regulatory union, and see arrogance, bullying and dictatoriality in the EU’s failure to accept that we can have our cake and eat it - this fuckwittery, which is surprisingly well represented on Urban, is the political cover for hard Brexit. Someone, somewhere, knows what they are doing.

That’s to your earlier point, though, Saskia, rather than to your most recent one. Which is perfectly reasonable, as far as it goes.
 
True enough. There are entrenched remainers & entrenched leavers. Then there are those of us with mixed feelings. I certainly don’t like the EU. It is undemocratic & neoliberal. Right now they are acting like dictators. Instead of respecting a democratic vote from a member state & trying to work with that member state to endure the best outcome for us all living in the same continent they appear determined to do us down. They appear to be ignoring the 48% that voted remain.

However I do think it is not really worth it when what we have trade wise works ok but staying in the customs union means we are not really leaving so the brexiteers say. There is no solution I don’t think. We either say fuck’em & walk away without paying a penny or we stay in or in the customs union at least. If the next Labour government wants to borrow to invest & build a million council houses then we will still need free movement of people to come here & build them.

So really if the whole thing was cancelled I would be ok with that as well. I think with brexit is absolutely fine to sit on the fence. One does not to be for or against brexit.

Yeah all of that, probably, but I meant more generally even. The negotiators on each side are giving off more than a little of the "meh, whatever" attitude to each other's positions. The public beyond the hardcore jingoists have pretty much given up caring as far as I can see. We all know that practically speaking we have no further say in this than do farm animals, having jumped the fence last year all we can do now is bleat. We've ended up with the worst of all possible outcomes so far and no improvement looks likely. Come March 2019 I think the best we'll be able to manage is a great collective meh, whatever as we tap EFTA on the shoulder and look for sympathy there.

Creeping apathy due to utter powerlessness. Or were we taking back control? To be honest I've forgotten what this was all meant to be about.
 
A fucking growing majority, the uncertainty that bubbled up after the vote is being dissipated by the EUs obvious desire to screw the last pound of flesh from any trade negotiation.
Fuck em, let's just take our chances with the WTO and make sure those twisty gits in the EU have to play by the same rules.......or are the EU exempted from WTO rules when playing outside there cosy little school yard?

Sobered up ahead of the rugby.

As a single member of the WTO it would be unlawful for the UK to single out the EU and place extra tarrifs on their goods, we'd have to apply a tarrif on specific goods regardless of their point of origin. The EU however, because it has a collection of WTO members, qualifies as having Regional Trading Agreements, this gives them the right to single out other countries for 'special treatment' ie higher tariffs... So the EU could lawfully discriminate against UK exports, and it would be unlawful for the UK to retaliate.
 
The EU has literally hundreds of trade agreements with non-EU entities. When we leave we've got to start from scratch.

Yes. But a lot of the graft in a trade agreement is assuring that both parties are on the same page vis-a-vis safety standards and the like. Which we clearly are, so we can cut the time taken significantly using a Mutual Recognition Agreement(MRA)
 
So whats the detail on this story about Australia being unhappy with an aspect of the potential deal? Either the story is missing key info, isn't well written or my brain hasn't really woken up today! Cheers.

Australia knocks UK Brexit trade plan

Two parties enter into a contract, then one side wants to tinker with the internals of their side of the contract, then the other is going to want a say. If you sub let half your flat without talking to the landlord he wouldn't be too happy.
Its not just Australia Trump administration rejects PM's post-Brexit agriculture deal with EU - Farming UK News

I'd guess its down to currency fluctuation, dividing TRQ's based on historical imports and consumption seems fair, but we aren't going to eat as much, say, New Zealand lamb any more coz the pounds gone down so its more expensive....they'd rather have more market opportunity where that hasn't happened i.e rest of EUrope.
 
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Mmmm, because they seem to be the reasons the EU 'negotiators' can keep raising to deflect from their real 'obsession' to give us the 'money honey' to paraphrase :thumbs:

Or perhaps they think those are important - you know freedom of movement being one of the fundamental rights of eu member citizens.

And maybe they recongnise that the border issue is pretty important to at least one of their remaining members, bearing in mind the good Friday agreement.

Or maybe “conspiracy!”

Alex
 
Or perhaps they think those are important - you know freedom of movement being one of the fundamental rights of eu member citizens.

And maybe they recongnise that the border issue is pretty important to at least one of their remaining members, bearing in mind the good Friday agreement.

Or maybe “conspiracy!”

Alex
um yes for reasons I did explain abut a year ago, but am currently too pissed to remember (i'll come back and edit when sober but its to do with safety in numbers)

Sober yet? No, don't sweat it, I'm not:D
 
Leaving the EU means we can no longer assume we have a right to apply for EU grants, which is what Capital of Culture basically is. It's not really about toys and prams, but about money and drains.

I expect we'll be showing we're not so petty by launching a rival European Capital of Culture programme to give British taxpayers' money away to EU cities.

This is what really pisses me off, forget the daft bus, the point was, the money we currently pour down the EU drain can be redirected/allocated to U.K. Interests as opposed to being spread over a number of EU projects.
They don't 'give us a penny farthing' they, at present give us some of the money we contribute back as a 'rebate'
Why the hell we are offering them billions to continue trading with us, is frankly beyond me.
The threats of U.K. Lorries being held up waiting for EU customs clearance? Imagine the queues on the continent!
And all the other 'imagined horrors' being pushed daily by the BBC and the Guardian et al, the EU isn't stupid but its negotiators are obviously reading and listening to the above^^.
They might end up getting a fucking shock.
And yes, telling them to 'shove it' might hurt us in the short term, but on many levels it will hurt the 'EU project' even more.
 
Or perhaps they think those are important - you know freedom of movement being one of the fundamental rights of eu member citizens.

And maybe they recongnise that the border issue is pretty important to at least one of their remaining members, bearing in mind the good Friday agreement.

Or maybe “conspiracy!”

Alex
Money, pure and simple,
The EU is like Groucho Marx, "if you don't like my principles, I have others"
 
Sober yet? No, don't sweat it, I'm not:D

Sobered up ahead of the rugby.

As a single member of the WTO it would be unlawful for the UK to single out the EU and place extra tarrifs on their goods, we'd have to apply a tarrif on specific goods regardless of their point of origin. The EU however, because it has a collection of WTO members, qualifies as having Regional Trading Agreements, this gives them the right to single out other countries for 'special treatment' ie higher tariffs... So the EU could lawfully discriminate against UK exports, and it would be unlawful for the UK to retaliate.
um pissed again 70/80 mins a good game.
The global gig is skewed towards national amalgamations coz that what makes life easier for them and the global corps. But its only through going through this sort of shit that the rules of the actual house get disseminated and absorbed. Mid time frame EFTA membership would class us as in a RTA.




some of us thought this through.
 
This is what really pisses me off, forget the daft bus, the point was, the money we currently pour down the EU drain can be redirected/allocated to U.K. Interests as opposed to being spread over a number of EU projects.
They don't 'give us a penny farthing' they, at present give us some of the money we contribute back as a 'rebate'
I'm curious about this.

I live in the north of England. Amongst many things, the transport infrastructure is falling apart due to years of underinvestment relative to elsewhere in the UK. To fix it would require a significant redistributive effort (if only there was a political name for this) in which Londoners & southerners would, for some time, pay more than they received in return. There are reasons other than charity as to why this would be a good idea for them, but nonetheless it would have a cost.

In theory at least, the EU actually does do this redistribution amongst its members (including to the north of England, hilariously), of whom we are one of the richer, and you are against it.

So I wonder whether you object to the principle, or it transcending national borders, or something about overheads, or what?
 
Irish border now moving centre stage? Solution appears to be for whole of UK to stay in customs union & free trade area? So the answer to the op might be no, not really. Would the DUP support staying in customs union/free trade area as a solution? Can somebody enlighten me? I know very little about Irish politics.
 
I'm curious about this.

I live in the north of England. Amongst many things, the transport infrastructure is falling apart due to years of underinvestment relative to elsewhere in the UK. To fix it would require a significant redistributive effort (if only there was a political name for this) in which Londoners & southerners would, for some time, pay more than they received in return. There are reasons other than charity as to why this would be a good idea for them, but nonetheless it would have a cost.

In theory at least, the EU actually does do this redistribution amongst its members (including to the north of England, hilariously), of whom we are one of the richer, and you are against it.

Yep, one of the things that made me lean Remain is how the EU was willing to spend money in places like Merseyside while Conservative governments would have cheerfully let the place rot because people there were never going to vote Tory anyway. I know there's an element of the poisoned chalice or whatever but EU money did make a big difference in places like Birkenhead during the years when the British government was looking more at "managed decline," as in Geoffrey Howe's memo to Thatcher in 1981:
"It would be even more regrettable if some of the brighter ideas for renewing economic activity were to be sown only on relatively stony ground on the banks of the Mersey.

"I cannot help feeling that the option of managed decline is one which we should not forget altogether. We must not expend all our limited resources in trying to make water flow uphill."
 
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