Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Slo-mo]

Which church?

Both of them....

 

[2hats]

Ah yes, the old "all Leave voters are stupid" argument. Nothing like insulting 52% of the population at a stroke, is there?

27%.

 

[redsquirrel]

No.....why the fuck should we leave for the benefit of britain?
Are you for real?
The EU made Ireland....it did more for the country since 1973 than the brits EVER did...

What the celtic tiger crap that saw the rich make profits and corporation tax dropped, the austerity water charges. I'm not going to defend the UK's interactions in Ireland but fuck this bullshit of the EU helping the Irish WC.

 

[Winot]

It’s a nice idea but you have to wonder if they have the subtlety, cunning, understanding or foresight to do anything like that.

The key issue for May seems to be our freedom to agree independent trade deals after Brexit, which I understand is constrained if we are in *the* CU. But presumably not in a CU.

 

[DotCommunist]

Yep, one of the things that made me lean Remain is how the EU was willing to spend money in places like Merseyside while Conservative governments would have cheerfully let the place rot because people there were never going to vote Tory anyway. I know there's an element of the poisoned chalice or whatever but EU money did make a big difference in places like Birkenhead during the years when the British government was looking more at "managed decline," as in Geoffrey Howe's memo to Thatcher in 1981:

its been the insistence of remainers that 'the leave areas saw the most EU input anyway!' - but heres a thing:

Regional economic disparities grounded in successive rounds of uneven development and biased official policy are not peculiar to Britain. As David Harvey has written, ‘capitalism is uneven geographical development’—and, if anything, becoming more so. The era of neoliberal globalization multiplied opportunities for ‘the uneven insertion of different territories and social formations into the capitalist world market’. [55] As regulatory powers are stripped away, wealth is becoming more and more concentrated in the hands of the opulent few. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, mouthpiece for free-market economies, notes that ‘while gaps in GDP per capita across OECD countries have narrowed over the last two decades, within their own borders countries are witnessing increasing income gaps among regions, cities and people.’ Such is the common pattern. Davos is looking nervously over its shoulder as the popular backlash intensifies. [56]

Yet Britain is indeed a special case of uneven development within the Europe on which its voters were invited to express their verdict in 2016. The astonishing fact is that the UK is more lopsided economically than Italy, despite its notoriously incomplete Risorgimento; than Spain, with its historic polarity of Catalan–Basque industry and Andalusian latifundia; than Germany, where a quarter of a century after reunification GDP per head in the East was still only two-thirds of that in the West; than France, enshadowed by a metropolis great enough to warrant comparison with its cross-Channel neighbour. At sub-regional level, output per head is eight times higher in inner west London than in west Wales and the Valleys, the largest difference to be found in anyEU member state from Bantry Bay to the Dniester. [57]

So it is that a former regional-policy advisor at the European Commission can observe that ‘the economic geography of the UK nowadays increasingly reflects the patterns typically observed in developing or former-transition economies rather than in other advanced economies.’ In several peripheral European states—Ireland and Portugal in the far west; the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia to the east—only the capital-city region achieves output per capita above the EU average. [58] The UK is richer, but its long-run development, aside from the short Victorian interlude of factory capitalism, has been similarly monocentric. Northwards redistribution of economic activity from London and the South has never featured high on the list of national political priorities. Today just 2 per cent of households in the North East feature in the top decile of wealth, set against 22 per cent in the South East and 18 per cent in London. Under the Cameron coalition, median household wealth in London increased by 14 per cent, while it fell 8 per cent in Yorkshire and the Humber. [59] The real average jobless rate was last clocked at over 11 per cent in the two most northerly English regions, rising above 16 per cent in the worst blackspots, compared to just 3 or 4 per cent in large parts of the South. At the bottom end of the income ladder, very high deprivation looms largest in a quintet of northern boroughs: Middlesbrough, Knowsley, Hull, Liverpool and Manchester. The South East, of course, has problems of its own. Gentrification is taking the edge off the poverty statistics for east London, but out in the sticks, forgotten Jaywick on the Essex coast is England’s single most destitute neighbourhood. [60] Nevertheless, the phenomenal amount of wealth sloshing around the capital does much to shield the London commentariat from the degradation of outer regions, flattering to deceive that government economic policy is working for the country at large. ‘I’ll tell you what’s at stake’, warned George Osborne, a millionaire Londoner, as the referendum loomed: ‘the prosperity of the British economy, people’s incomes would be hit, the ability to provide for their families would be hit. We’ve not even talked about unemployment.’ [61] His parliamentary seat was a Tory constituency in leafy east Cheshire, one of only four out of 38 areas across northern England where household income per head is above rather than below the national average.

So we have to wonder where all this extra EU largesse was going? Why was it not felt in real terms by the leave areas? Again and again the remain crowd point to this fact that the EU funded leave areas higher than anywhere in the country, I mean this is great for the remainer because it confirms the belief that silly racists cut their noses off to spite their faces. But again, in real terms, not liberal paper talking points, where was the jam?

 

[SaskiaJayne]

The pre brexit spiel was the world would be queuing for trade deals. For that we needed to be out of the CU which meant we could also to control immigration. If we want a trade deal with India they will be apparently happy to oblige if it includes free movement of people.

 

[Winot]

So the UK is far more unequal for its wealth than all those other EU countries? Suggests it might have something to do with the UK government rather than the EU

 

[DotCommunist]

So the UK is far more unequal for its wealth than all those other EU countries? Suggests it might have something to do with the UK government rather than the EU

but but but a minute ago the EU was the rising tide that raises all boats, now it sort of was but the UK government is at fault here. Will you be having your cake AND eating it now sor?

 

[SaskiaJayne]

Well yes, the vote to leave was caused by successive UK governments not by the EU. Holland for example does not have the UK scale of min wage migrants because it’s employment law would not allow the business models developed in the UK to take advantage of the cheap eastern European labour pool available after 2004. Several EU countries have been able to limit migration staying within EU rules. You don’t see roadside car washes in Holland & France for example.

 

[mauvais]

but but but a minute ago the EU was the rising tide that raises all boats, now it sort of was but the UK government is at fault here. Will you be having your cake AND eating it now sor?

A little EU money redistributed is not going to solve the UK's problems, but why would you expect it to?

It's far from largesse but it would appear to be a better return than the domestic government is interested in committing to. The quote you've just put up is ample evidence of a very British failure. This is what it comes down to again & again - between the EU and the short to medium term prospects for a non-EU UK government, who offers more benefits in the areas of interest - in this case, funding for things outside the South East?

 

[DotCommunist]

A little EU money redistributed is not going to solve the UK's problems, but why would you expect it to?

It's far from largesse but it would appear to be a better return than the domestic government is interested in committing to. The quote you've just put up is ample evidence of a very British failure. This is what it comes down to again & again - between the EU and the short to medium term prospects for a non-EU UK government, who offers more benefits in the areas of interest - in this case, funding for things outside the South East?

a soc/dem labour government which would have been unthinkable if remain had won- you'd still have cameron hanging on with tory MPs grousing about how 'he said he would step down soon'.

clearly the EU was doing nothing about income disparity- again, the jam, where was it? in the pockets of local booj? hmm?

you can thank me later for corbyns epic victory and the continuing destruction in the median term of the tories. I accept gift vouchers as well

 

[bubblesmcgrath]

What the celtic tiger crap that saw the rich make profits and corporation tax dropped, the austerity water charges. I'm not going to defend the UK's interactions in Ireland but fuck this bullshit of the EU helping the Irish WC.

From joining the EC in 1973 Ireland developed beyond anything the UK could possibly have offered.....if we had remained part of the UK...and the economy grew..right up to the mid 90s.
I'm not talking about the Celtic tiger...that was very much a greed driven debacle ...and run by scurrilous banks who didnt give a toss about the potentially devastating repercussions of loaning people 4 times their salary to buy overpriced houses ... and Irelanf wasnt alone in that crapology....as we all know.
Dont blame the EU for that debacle

Ireland is better off in every way remaining within the EU...

 

[SaskiaJayne]

a soc/dem labour government which would have been unthinkable if remain had won- you'd still have cameron hanging on with tory MPs grousing about how 'he said he would step down soon'.

Yes this absolutely. We have gone in a couple of yrs from a Tory government that had a working majority with a sharp suited pair in charge who at least walked the walk & talked the talk even if it was mostly shite to the weak & chaotic government we have now all because of the leave vote.

I always thought as the non property owning demographic increases in number with the Tory voting property owners decreasing as they die off we would eventually get a more socialist government but the brexit vote has speeded things up imo.

Ironically the worse that brexit ends with the Tories totally discredited the larger the majority of the next Corbyn led government I reckon. The supreme irony will be that the brexit conceived by the ultra capitalist atlantisists will end up being owned by the lexiteers.

 

[Yossarian]

its been the insistence of remainers that 'the leave areas saw the most EU input anyway!' - but heres a thing:


So we have to wonder where all this extra EU largesse was going? Why was it not felt in real terms by the leave areas? Again and again the remain crowd point to this fact that the EU funded leave areas higher than anywhere in the country, I mean this is great for the remainer because it confirms the belief that silly racists cut their noses off to spite their faces. But again, in real terms, not liberal paper talking points, where was the jam?

I wasn't talking about a leave area, I was talking about Merseyside.

 

[DotCommunist]

I wasn't talking about a leave area, I was talking about Merseyside.

perhaps I should have quoted mauvais. Yeah,
I just read back, its his comment I should have been quoting

 

[tim]

From joining the EC in 1973 Ireland developed beyond anything the UK could possibly have offered.....if we had remained part of the UK...and the economy grew..right up to the mid 90s.
I'm not talking about the Celtic tiger...that was very much a greed driven debacle ...and run by scurrilous banks who didnt give a toss about the potentially devastating repercussions of loaning people 4 times their salary to buy overpriced houses ... and Irelanf wasnt alone in that crapology....as we all know.
Dont blame the EU for that debacle

Ireland is better off in every way remaining within the EU...

Ireland and Denmark joined the EEC originally because the UK joined, and trade with the UK was central to their economies. With Ireland at least that is still the case so the harder the Brexit the worse it will be for the Irish economy. Ireland leaving the EU would not be sensible, but at the same time it would not be sensible for British negotiators not to exploit the power they have to damage the Irish economy, in their efforts to achieve the most favourable deal.

 

[bubblesmcgrath]

Just been listening to Ms Foster's views and God help NI....
It's like being back in 1986....
What a dinosaur.....
Hard to write this...but Ian Paisley in his last 8 years was more enlightened and progressive than madam Foster...

Ireland and Denmark joined the EEC originally because the UK joined, and trade with the UK was central to their economies. With Ireland at least that is still the case so the harder the Brexit the worse it will be for the Irish economy. Ireland leaving the EU would not be sensible, but at the same time it would not be sensible for British negotiators not to exploit the power they have to damage the Irish economy, in their efforts to achieve the most favourable deal.

So...because britain wants to leave they're going to fuck us over...again...?
You do realise that the Great British economy was made on the backs of the colonies? On the likes of the Irish...working for fuck all to put food on British tables whilst they themselves were starving?

If the brits think they can pressure Ireland into a hard border they're delusional. Ireland wont bow to pressure from the UK..and history will be repeated ..NI will turn into a massive money pit for the british government as they try to piece together a shattered peace agreement...
it really will be back to the days of the IRA and INLA fighting Unionists and all the bigots will rule.
The British government are playing with peace in the north...and ultimately they are playing games with people's lives.

Ireland is not a pawn to be shoved around by the British government.

 

[tim]

So...because britain wants to leave they're going to fuck us over...again...?
You do realisr that the fucking great British economy was made on the backs of the colonies? On the likes of the Irish...working for fuck all to put food on British tables whilst they themselves were starving?
You need to wake up mate....
If the brits think they can pressure Ireland into a hard border they're delusional. Ireland wont bow to pressure from the UK..and history will be repeated ..NI will turn into a massive money pit for the UK as they try to piece together a shattered peace agreement...
it really will be back to the days of the IRA and INLA fighting Unionists and the bigots will rule.
The British government are playing with peace in the north...and ultimately they are playing games with people's lives.

Ireland is not a pawn to be shoved around by the British government.

It's not what I think should happen, it's what I assume will happen because it is the way politics work. I don't like the way that Greece has been crushed by Germany economic interests, but my feelings are irrelevant. If the negotiators fail to find a compromise, the hard internal border will be imposed by the EU, regardless of the views of the Irish government. This won't be good for the British economy but it'll be a disaster for Ireland. So, Ireland is a pawn in the game. The British government has so much to lose from a bad deal, that it will exploit the advantages that it has.

 

[bubblesmcgrath]

It's not what I think should happen, it's what I assume will happen because it is the way politics work. I don't like the way that Greece has been crushed by Germany economic interests, but my feelings are irrelevant. If the negotiators fail to find a compromise, the hard internal border will be imposed by the EU, regardless of the views of the Irish government. This won't be good for the British economy but it'll be a disaster for Ireland. So, Ireland is a pawn in the game. The British government has so much to lose from a bad deal, that it will exploit the advantages that it has.

If we are assuming things...then I would assume that the British government (who really dont want Brexit) wont want to be responsible for messing up the peace agreement in Ireland.

I'd put momey on another referendum happening before long.

 

[Slo-mo]

From joining the EC in 1973 Ireland developed beyond anything the UK could possibly have offered.....

I think one of the reasons for that is that Ireland did so badly from independence up to that point.

With the benefit of 20 20 hindsight I could make a powerful case in 1920 for Ireland to remain in the UK, but it's a hundred years too late now.

 

[tim]

If we are assuming things...then I would assume that the British government (who really dont want Brexit) wont want to be responsible for messing up the peace agreement in Ireland.

I'd put momey on another referendum happening before long.

My assumption is that there will be no second referendum, which would cause loss of face and might still have the same result. I do assume that there will be a lot of compromising and a BREXITsoft reality, in a shell of hard rhetoric.

 

[Juno4000]

I would vote the first option, but I disagree Scotland will be independent any time soon, so there are no options I can vote for.

 

[bubblesmcgrath]

I think one of the reasons for that is that Ireland did so badly from independence up to that point.

With the benefit of 20 20 hindsight I could make a powerful case in 1920 for Ireland to remain in the UK, but it's a hundred years too late now.

Ireland was in a shit state before 1916...and people realised that the British governemt were always going to treat Ireland and it's population like dirt. From 1821 the Btitish government had shown how little they thought of Ireland and it's population. Dont forget...we were citizens of the UK....but were treated like scum.
The Starvation (mislabelled the famine) was a deliberate genocide and it left the country with a massively diminished population....survivors didn't forget...and after the Rising in 1916 the british government once again showed how little regard they had for the Irish...with executions and the black and tans sent over here....to kill.
Between 1923 and 1973 Ireland was actually very progressive in some ways. The biggest hydroelectric power station in Europe was built on the Shannon.... The ESB (still one of the best electricity providers in europe) was born during that time in Ireland. I think the country was penniless though....which made it very hard. It was running on empty because it had no wealth...all it's wealth had gone to Britain for years.

The EEC was great for Irish industry and farming and infrastructure which were areas that had been neglected prior to that by the British government.

No point thinking about anything in hindsight ....because what happened, happened and destroyed people's lives for decades afterwards...but...I think the vast majority of Irish people would not go back to change that history .

 

[redsquirrel]

From joining the EC in 1973 <snip>.and the economy grew..

And this is what so much of the the pro-EU consist of. The economy.

I'm not talking about the Celtic tiger...that was very much a greed driven debacle ...and run by scurrilous banks who didnt give a toss about the potentially devastating repercussions of loaning people 4 times their salary to buy overpriced houses ... and Irelanf wasnt alone in that crapology....as we all know.
Dont blame the EU for that debacle

The politics that resulting in the Celtic Tiger, the GFC and now the water charges and other austerity measures are all the same politics. The same neo-liberal politics of the EU that you seek to defend.

So...because britain wants to leave they're going to fuck us over...again...?
You do realise that the Great British economy was made on the backs of the colonies? On the likes of the Irish...working for fuck all to put food on British tables whilst they themselves were starving?

If the brits think they can pressure Ireland into a hard border they're delusional. Ireland wont bow to pressure from the UK..and history will be repeated ..NI will turn into a massive money pit for the british government as they try to piece together a shattered peace agreement...

Good to see the nice fluffy nationalism of Remain.

 

[bubblesmcgrath]

Good to see the nice fluffy nationalism of Remain.

That smacks of oxymoronism......
There is no discussion on Ireland leaving so....what's your beef?

 

[redsquirrel]

Why your whole post was filled with nationalistic rubbish - Ireland vs GB.
My beef is the writing out of the working class.

Whatever their views on the EU no socialist should have anything to do with you or Loom.

 

[bubblesmcgrath]

Why your whole post was filled with nationalistic rubbish - Ireland vs GB.
My beef is the writing out of the working class.

Whatever their views on the EU no socialist should have anything to do with you or Loom.

Lol.....what do you think the Irish population was to the British empire only the underclass....not even working class.
My posts are to do with what will happen if there is a hard border between Ireland and NI....(UK)

But carry on with your rather weird attack...

 

[gosub]

Lol.....what do you think the Irish population was to the British empire only the underclass....not even working class.
My posts are to do with what will happen if there is a hard border between Ireland and NI....(UK)

But carry on with your rather weird attack...

 

[Slo-mo]

Ireland was in a shit state before 1916...and people realised that the British governemt were always going to treat Ireland and it's population like dirt. From 1821 the Btitish government had shown how little they thought of Ireland and it's population. Dont forget...we were citizens of the UK....but were treated like scum.
The Starvation (mislabelled the famine) was a deliberate genocide and it left the country with a massively diminished population....survivors didn't forget...and after the Rising in 1916 the british government once again showed how little regard they had for the Irish...with executions and the black and tans sent over here....to kill.
Between 1923 and 1973 Ireland was actually very progressive in some ways. The biggest hydroelectric power station in Europe was built on the Shannon.... The ESB (still one of the best electricity providers in europe) was born during that time in Ireland. I think the country was penniless though....which made it very hard. It was running on empty because it had no wealth...all it's wealth had gone to Britain for years.

The EEC was great for Irish industry and farming and infrastructure which were areas that had been neglected prior to that by the British government.

No point thinking about anything in hindsight ....because what happened, happened and destroyed people's lives for decades afterwards...but...I think the vast majority of Irish people would not go back to change that history .

Actually I would agree with pretty much all of that, but it doesn't stop me wishing things were different

FWIW (which is nothing) my own fantasy would be a federal UK, with an administrative capital in Manchester but devo max max *MAX* to Dublin, Edinburgh, Cardiff and London. As the largest nation population wise, England would be sub-divided into regions with less, but still substantial, powers than the national parliaments in Wales, Scotland and Ireland to prevent any one part of the UK dominating.

But that's what it is- total fantasy, and getting off topic too.....

 

[bubblesmcgrath]

Anglo Irish.... lived inside the Pale.... protestant ascendancy class...