Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[elbows]

The EU is a monolith institution the nature of which makes it niegh on impossible to get an agreement within the proposed time frame. 27 parliments have to agree a deal. Within those there are some that have regional assemblies that have to agree a deal also before the national parliament can. Then there are those with specific interests that will use brexit for their own leverage eg Spain and the Gibraltar question. Why is anyone surprised it's not going to plan? The eu is sticking to its stated agenda and order of battle which is not to the UK's liking. No fucking shit Sherlock.

And in addition to all the actual shit that is really going wrong behind the scenes, there is also the long history of politicians from many countries, most certainly including the uk to consider. I'm talking about how public statements & posturing over all things involving EU negotiations at the best of times have often been at odds with what they actually say privately in EU meetings. Ken Clarke was going on about this in parliament recently, albeit in a more limited context than I'm applying it to. I will probably find the quote shortly.

Under the Major Government, we introduced a process whereby parts of the European Council meetings were held in public. The Council of Ministers do hold public sessions, and an attempt was made to reach decisions in public sessions. It probably still goes on. [Interruption.] It does not amount to very much.

We did try to tackle this criticism. What happened was that each of the 28 Ministers gave little speeches entirely designed for their national newspapers and television, and negotiations and discussion did not make much practical progress. When the public sessions were over, the Ministers went into private session to negotiate and reach agreement. I used to find that the best business at the European Council was usually done over lunch. I have attended more European Council meetings than most people have had hot dinners. The dinners and the lunches tended to be where reasonable understandings were made. There were very few votes, but Governments made it clear when they opposed anything. When the council was over, everyone gave a press conference. It was a slightly distressing habit, because some of the accounts of Ministers for the assembled national press did not bear a close resemblance to what they had been saying inside the Council. I regret to say that some British Ministers fell into that trap. British Ministers and Ministers of other nationalities who had fiercely advocated regulating inside the Council would hold a press conference describing their valiant efforts to block what had now come in, which confirms some of my hon. Friend’s criticisms.

European Union (Withdrawal) Bill - Hansard Online

Now to be fair he then goes on to play down how often the British Government failed to make it clear what they really approved and disapproved of, but I thought I'd throw it out there now anyway.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

I voted remain.

However, the decision went the other way and, yes, I was disappointed for a couple of days or so. After that, well, my attitude was, the vote's been had now, so let's try to forge ahead and make the best deal we can. For all concerned. The UK and Europe. Bitching and moaning, hissy fits and threats won't help anyone, I thought.

Boy was I wrong.

First off, I have no time for May and The Crony Party. She is inept, a lightweight Prime Minister, totally out of her depth and leading a party of dangerous jokers. Sadly, the opposition parties are no better. And all this combined, hasn't helped the Brexit process, that's for sure. But, hey, we're stuck with them, the lot of them for the next few years, so let's try and make the best of out a very bad lot (hard, I know, but there you go).

And yet....the more I see of the EU, or rather it's Orwellian leaders and shakers, the more obvious it's becoming: they are truly worse than any party in Westminster. They are twisting the knife as much as they can, whilst flashing smiles that can't betray their contempt and loathing of what's occurred. Ego and greed and vanity seem to rule their reasoning. Far more than any political party here. Bullying too. Observe them closely and you'll see a kind of cruel relish in the way they've operated since the UK vote. And there's one very good reason for that: fear.

They fear other European countries may leave, if the UK does happen (by some chance) to make a success of it. So their solution? Make it as hard as possible for them (the UK) so that we (the EU) can send out a chilling message; try to upset the cattle cart and this is what you'll get. We'll make things extremely difficult indeed. It's a classic bully boy tactic. And as time's gone on, it's become more and more clear. Even to a Remain voter like myself. It's all very unedifying and counter productive. Europe is already heading into a volatile future as it stands, and as such, we can all do without the vindictiveness and recriminations that seem to be fouling the air. From all sides.

I don't believe you. I don't think you voted remain at all.

 

[mojo pixy]

Ah, the hackneyed, cliched blame game circus rolls into view. What would the world be without it?

It's not about a ''blame game'', it's about watching the hypocrisy of people now pointing out the arrogance of the EU when the UK has spent decades demanding (and getting) preferential treatment in almost every negotiation we've entered, and for why exactly? Not arrogance, surely?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I don't really get the 'let's make it a success' line. A success for whom? By what measure?

I don't see any upsides to the UK leaving the EU. Pretty shit but not a complete fucking catastrophe is the best result I see happening. Yet somehow we're all supposed to get on and forge ahead? No thanks. What kind of twisted idea of a democracy is it where those on the wrong side of a vote are then expected to support the thing they opposed in the vote? I'll carry on opposing it and arguing against it, thanks very much.

 

[coley]

Why are citizens rights and the Irish border hypocritical ‘concerns’ ?

Alex

Mmmm, because they seem to be the reasons the EU 'negotiators' can keep raising to deflect from their real 'obsession' to give us the 'money honey' to paraphrase

 

[coley]

as you well know i meant paying for access to the single market and customs union without having a seat at the top table.

Did I? I must be unique in knowing what you say or mean, Pickers auld chep,

 

[coley]

Like it or not, the decision to set up a City of Culture thing was political. It was set up to help to foster a sense of unity within the EU. There are few things I could care less about, but why would the UK want to remain part of it? Why should they be allowed to? Presumably there's some kind of budget set aside for this from the EU. Maybe the UK wants to stay part of this bit of the EU and would like to contribute? What other parts would they like to stay part of? Not the bits that have the richer countries helping the poorer countries - that part of fostering European unity is one they don't want.

Can't have your cake and eat it - either they want out of the EU or not.

Strangely enough, I think most of what's left of the 'WC' won't feel left out of the 'city of culture' , thingimigib,

 

[coley]

This is just waffle. It's an EU thing. They set it up.

And they can keep it

 

[coley]

Ready for what? Being fucked?

Who's 'we'?

A fucking growing majority, the uncertainty that bubbled up after the vote is being dissipated by the EUs obvious desire to screw the last pound of flesh from any trade negotiation.
Fuck em, let's just take our chances with the WTO and make sure those twisty gits in the EU have to play by the same rules.......or are the EU exempted from WTO rules when playing outside there cosy little school yard?

 

[Pickman's model]

A fucking growing majority, the uncertainty that bubbled up after the vote is being dissipated by the EUs obvious desire to screw the last pound of flesh from any trade negotiation.
Fuck em, let's just take our chances with the WTO and make sure those twisty gits in the EU have to play by the same rules.......or are the EU exempted from WTO rules when playing outside there cosy little school yard?

it's not much of a negotiation when the only people who have half a notion what they're doing are er the eu. didn't you notice months back the reports of how the uk's bereft of trade negotiators?

 

[coley]

For those who have forgotten:

The man who took on the EU has destroyed Theresa May's Brexit tactics






Cor, it's like he's got a crystal ball.

Mebbes, but also he could be saying the Uk has the ability to kick the EU in the nuts, whereas Greece couldnt.

 

[oryx]

For those who have forgotten:

The man who took on the EU has destroyed Theresa May's Brexit tactics






Cor, it's like he's got a crystal ball.

AFAIK* Varoufakis's position on the EU is that for all its bureaucracy, neo-liberalism etc. etc. European countries are better off in than out, and that the EU desperately needs reform (which won't come as a surprise).

*this is going on what my partner, who recently read Adults In The Room, told me

 

[coley]

Unbelievable. They're a bunch of punishy cunts aren't they? Next thing you know they'll be saying Brexit means they'll stop sending us farm subsidies and we won't be able to take our turn with the rotating EU presidency thing any more.

Aye,and why shouldnt the rotating EU capital include the other members!? if I was an MEP I would be outraged that me and my staff couldn't enjoy the first class travel and accommodation afforded to the vast political entourage shuttling atween Strasbourg and Brussels.
They should obviously take it in turns, mmmm, Warsaw in winter might not be the typical EU operatives 'cup of tea'

 

[littlebabyjesus]

AFAIK* Varoufakis's position on the EU is that for all its bureaucracy, neo-liberalism etc. etc. European countries are better off in than out, and that the EU desperately needs reform (which won't come as a surprise).

*this is going on what my partner, who recently read Adults In The Room, told me

Yep, that's about the shape of it. 'radical remain' is what he's called it. Stay but push for change from within. His perspective is also influenced by the fact that within his living memory his own country was a military dictatorship. He doesn't take it for granted that such things can't happen again, and he sees the EU, for all its ugly warts, as a bulwark against it.

 

[Yossarian]

Unbelievable. They're a bunch of punishy cunts aren't they? Next thing you know they'll be saying Brexit means they'll stop sending us farm subsidies and we won't be able to take our turn with the rotating EU presidency thing any more.

Freed from the shackles of the fussy old European Union, Britain can now freely explore opportunities to have American or Asian cities of culture.

 

[coley]

it's not much of a negotiation when the only people who have half a notion what they're doing are er the eu. didn't you notice months back the reports of how the uk's bereft of trade negotiators?

Aye, I noticed that we are bereft of 'EU standard trade negotiators'
Hopefully we will produce some 'home grown negotiators' in the next year or so, that can negotiate and conclude agreements, on a time scale quicker than the geophysical upgrowth of most continents.

 

[coley]

Freed from the shackles of the fussy old European Union, Britain can now freely explore opportunities to have American or Asian cties of culture.

Now there's an interesting option, mebbes not the US ( at the moment)

 

[oryx]

Freed from the shackles of the fussy old European Union, Britain can now freely explore opportunities to have American or Asian cties of culture.

Why not, eh? Israel seems to do pretty well in UEFA and Eurovision.

ETA well not pretty well, but they're in it!

 

[SpackleFrog]

Yep, that's about the shape of it. 'radical remain' is what he's called it. Stay but push for change from within. His perspective is also influenced by the fact that within his living memory his own country was a military dictatorship. He doesn't take it for granted that such things can't happen again, and he sees the EU, for all its ugly warts, as a bulwark against it.

That's a mischaracterisation of his very weak/largely pro EU position. I suspect you have read none of what he's written on it.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Does anyone know which reports are coming out on Wednesday? I have heard rumours within the party (and at this point they are rumours) that if the reports show massive economic damage to the country Labour will take a hard revoke Article 50 stance.

I expected them to do this as some point and with the withdrawal date fast approaching it is now or never I guess. All about playing the long game whilst this Tories tear themselves apart.

If they do that it will be fucking suicide and we'll get another Tory govt.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

That's a mischaracterisation of his very weak/largely pro EU position. I suspect you have read none of what he's written on it.

It's a pretty exact characterisation of what he said on the subject during and directly after the referendum campaign, during which he was explicit about his fears for peace in Europe if the EU breaks up. Plus This kind of thing.

 

[SpackleFrog]

His perspective is also influenced by the fact that within his living memory his own country was a military dictatorship. He doesn't take it for granted that such things can't happen again, and he sees the EU, for all its ugly warts, as a bulwark against it.

It's a pretty exact characterisation of what he said on the subject during and directly after the referendum campaign, during which he was explicit about his fears for peace in Europe if the EU breaks up. Plus This kind of thing.

Nowhere in that article does Varoufakis make the argument that the EU is a bulwark against military dictatorship.

You lying, dishonest little shit.

 

[Fingers]

If they do that it will be fucking suicide and we'll get another Tory govt.

Depends what the reports reveal on Wednesday. I am guessing they are going to report some slightly short of financial Armageddon

 

[SaskiaJayne]

Unbelievable. They're a bunch of punishy cunts aren't they? Next thing you know they'll be saying Brexit means they'll stop sending us farm subsidies and we won't be able to take our turn with the rotating EU presidency thing any more.

We are leaving the EU not Europe. We cannot leave Europe because we cannot redraw the world map any more than the EU can. This is the EU throwing it’s toys out of the pram. It is petty.

 

[gosub]

A fucking growing majority, the uncertainty that bubbled up after the vote is being dissipated by the EUs obvious desire to screw the last pound of flesh from any trade negotiation.
Fuck em, let's just take our chances with the WTO and make sure those twisty gits in the EU have to play by the same rules.......or are the EU exempted from WTO rules when playing outside there cosy little school yard?

um yes for reasons I did explain abut a year ago, but am currently too pissed to remember (i'll come back and edit when sober but its to do with safety in numbers)

 

[oryx]

Nowhere in that article does Varoufakis make the argument that the EU is a bulwark against military dictatorship.

You lying, dishonest little shit.

I think calling LBJ a lying, dishonest little shit is going a bit OTT, really. They said 'plus this kind of thing' and didn't claim that the article referred to Varoufakis's views on the Greek military dictatorship.

The really important words from Varoufakis (and as he's a highly regarded economist, former government minister and someone who has negotiated with the EU at the sharp end, you're hard pushed to do better than to quote him) are:

However, voting to leave the EU would only benefit a wealthy elite as keen to liberate itself from Brussels as it is to rule over the majority of British people.

 

[Raheem]

We are leaving the EU not Europe. We cannot leave Europe because we cannot redraw the world map any more than the EU can. This is the EU throwing it’s toys out of the pram. It is petty.

Leaving the EU means we can no longer assume we have a right to apply for EU grants, which is what Capital of Culture basically is. It's not really about toys and prams, but about money and drains.

I expect we'll be showing we're not so petty by launching a rival European Capital of Culture programme to give British taxpayers' money away to EU cities.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I think calling LBJ a lying, dishonest little shit is going a bit OTT, really. They said 'plus this kind of thing' and didn't claim that the article referred to Varoufakis's views on the Greek military dictatorship.

The really important words from Varoufakis (and as he's a highly regarded economist, former government minister and someone who has negotiated with the EU at the sharp end, you're hard pushed to do better than to quote him) are:

However, voting to leave the EU would only benefit a wealthy elite as keen to liberate itself from Brussels as it is to rule over the majority of British people.

Consider it a comment on LBJ's (love it) selective and cumulative contributions to the thread rather than purely that one comment - but LBJ's only point in the post was to imply that Varoufakis had in some way parroted one of those daft "the EU is pro democracy" type arguments, and then to supply an unrelated link with no further comment, so I think actually that is a cunt's trick that needs highlighting.

I'm well aware of Varoufakis's contradictory views on the EU. I have no idea for the record who it is you believe admires him these days - he will go down as one of history's biggest failures when it comes to political negotiations. Although I suppose maybe your point is he's well placed to advice Theresa May?

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

Fuck em, let's just take our chances with the WTO and make sure those twisty gits in the EU have to play by the same rules.......or are the EU exempted from WTO rules when playing outside there cosy little school yard?

The EU has literally hundreds of trade agreements with non-EU entities. When we leave we've got to start from scratch.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

We are leaving the EU not Europe. We cannot leave Europe because we cannot redraw the world map any more than the EU can. This is the EU throwing it’s toys out of the pram. It is petty.

"hello I would like to leave your club, but also still be a member of your club"