Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[ska invita]

A thought I've been having on Brexit this week is that it's a fairly unique political event in that it has a characteristic about it that means for many people, no matter what develops, they see in it what they want to see..... It's like a glittering crystalball that beautifully reflects a viewers own political philosophy and confirmation biases, and across the political spectrum. No new development or arising fact changes the overall perception, it just reinforces it.

Or maybe so it was until now. I think that's partly why Mays deal has fallen so flat. The glimmering reflecting perception has been replaced by a 500 page document(which should've been there before the referendum). Even that document seems to have tried to maintain some of that shimmering ambiguity in regards to the next stage, but it seems that for many the illusion has been broken.

I think the deal is a good one in that it's got what was asked for and campaigned for by the Leave campaign: points based immigration, legal sovereignty, a workable degree of customs/trade integration, no hard border in Ireland, EU citizens can stay and vice versa (at least on paper if not in practice) and a future option to reduce standards from EU benchmarks. That's what Brexit was all about wasnt it? That's what I thought was being promised all along. That or the WTO disaster capitalism version that lurked in the background.

The lack of support for the deal from leavers is a wind up...FFS after all this bullshit now they don't want it? After all that conviction and certainty now this angst? It's like a kid pestering for a present all year and then crying on Christmas morning they don't like it.

Right now I just want the deal to go through, if for no other reason that I'm sick of Brexit and all the braying cunts and their mouthpieces in the press who have been poisoning us with their bullshit all this time. You wanted it? You got it, now shut the fuck up. You wanted to trigger article 50 immediately? Deal with the deadline. Eat your dinner.

Funny, all those who tried to stop a Meaningful Vote as it would get in the way of Brexit actually happening now can't wait to use it to moan even more.

Sick of it

 

[Pickman's model]

A thought I've been having on Brexit this week is that it's a fairly unique political event in that it has a characteristic about it that means for many people, no matter what develops, they see in it what they want to see..... It's like a glittering crystalball that beautifully reflects a viewers own political philosophy and confirmation biases, and across the political spectrum. No new development or arising fact changes the overall perception, it just reinforces it.

Or maybe so it was until now. I think that's partly why Mays deal has fallen so flat. The glimmering reflecting perception has been replaced by a 500 page document(which should've been there before the referendum). Even that document seems to have tried to maintain some of that shimmering ambiguity in regards to the next stage, but it seems that for many the illusion has been broken.

I think the deal is a good one in that it's got what was asked for and campaigned for by the Leave campaign: points based immigration, legal sovereignty, a workable degree of customs/trade integration, no hard border in Ireland, EU citizens can stay and vice versa (at least on paper if not in practice) and a future option to reduce standards from EU benchmarks. That's what Brexit was all about wasnt it? That's what I thought was being promised all along. That or the WTO disaster capitalism version.

The lack of support for the deal from leavers is a wind up...FFS after all this bullshit now they don't want it? After all that conviction and certainty now this angst? It's like a kid pestering for a present all year and then crying on Christmas morning they don't like it.

Right now I just want the deal to go through, if for no other reason that I'm sick of Brexit and all the braying cunts and their mouthpieces in the press who have been poisoning us with their bullshit all this time. You wanted it? You got it, now shut the fuck up. You wanted to trigger article 50 immediately? Deal with the deadline. Eat your dinner.

Funny, all those who tried to stop a Meaningful Vote as it would get in the way of Brexit actually happening now can't wait to use it to moan even more.

Sick of it

Oh you'll hate what happens next then

 

[strung out]

Right now I just want the deal to go through

I don't. Why stop the entertainment now?

 

[ska invita]

Four months, that's all now - deal or no deal.

I'm calling it: she loses the first vote, she survives a confidence vote (probably), and she wins the second Brexit vote. You heard it here first.

Apart from all the commentators who said it before you on TV, in the press, and on this thread



Just had a thought, which is that by May calling her fuck up snap election she set up a five year fixed term window in which to complete Brexit, which ought to have stopped the potential for a change in government by way of losing an election within the middle of the process. That may or may not work out of course!

 

[ska invita]

I don't. Why stop the entertainment now?

Yeah there is that... It's the silver lining

 

[Pickman's model]

Yeah there is that... It's the silver lining

Hey ho, silver lining

 

[Pickman's model]

Four months, that's all now - deal or no deal.

I'm calling it: she loses the first vote, she survives a confidence vote (probably), and she wins the second Brexit vote. You heard it here first.

Aren't the first votes on any amendments?

 

[Flavour]

May will quit if she loses the vote, surely? Is it possible she hasn't had enough of the poisoned chalice? Let someone else be responsible for either crashing out with no deal or extending article 50 / canceling brexit

 

[ska invita]

May will quit if she loses the vote, surely? Is it possible she hasn't had enough of the poisoned chalice? Let someone else be responsible for either crashing out with no deal or extending article 50 / canceling brexit

May has the "Well you do it then" card to play against her party. Maybe even against Labour. It's a really strong card I think.
Article 50 extension two months max supposedly

 

[brogdale]

May has the "Well you do it then" card to play against her party. Maybe even against Labour. It's a really strong card I think.
Article 50 extension two months max supposedly

The biggest problem for tory party strategists is that any significant tory rebellion on May's deal damages what would be their GE line that "it was Labour that stole your Brexit".

 

[ska invita]

The biggest problem for tory party strategists is that any significant tory rebellion on May's deal damages what would be their GE line that "it was Labour that stole your Brexit".

Which is partly why I think they'll vote for it in the end, one the realities really set in.

 

[brogdale]

Which is partly why I think they'll vote for it in the end, one the realities really set in.

Until relatively recently I believed that there'd be enough 'Labour' votes for May's 'Brexit' to out-weigh any tory rebellion. That was until May's deal was revealed as explicitly not Brexit and voter sentiment changed. Can't see many Lab votes for the dog's diner now...so any double figure rebellion from the swivel-eyed loons will sink her deal.

 

[alex_]

The biggest problem for tory party strategists is that any significant tory rebellion on May's deal damages what would be their GE line that "it was Labour that stole your Brexit".

I’m sure this will be the line literally whatever happens.

Alex

 

[brogdale]

I’m sure this will be the line literally whatever happens.

Alex

After IRA, Hammas, Hezbollah, hates the jooos....

 

[danny la rouge]

Aren't the first votes on any amendments?

Indeed. And it is at this point that the amendments will either be enough to save the deal or not. My feeling is still the former. And that’s based partly on what ska invita says above - the “you do it, then” card. Because there is still not the parliamentary numbers for any one of the permutations we feverishly considered over the last fortnight: the Moog revolt; the no deal exit; the unamended deal; or even a snap GE.

What’s perhaps surprising is that people are still trying to paint this as a two pole issue, when it quite clearly isn’t.

 

[hot air baboon]

May will quit if she loses the vote, surely? Is it possible she hasn't had enough of the poisoned chalice? Let someone else be responsible for either crashing out with no deal or extending article 50 / canceling brexit

David Cameron ‘looking for return to frontline politics’ - what is he up to now?

 

[Pickman's model]

David Cameron ‘looking for return to frontline politics’ - what is he up to now?

if there's one man in british politics more despised than tony blair and nick griffin it's david cameron

 

[Flavour]

David Cameron running for election and losing by a few hundred votes in a previously safe Tory seat would be better than when portillo lost.

 

[Pickman's model]

David Cameron running for election and losing by a few hundred votes in a previously safe Tory seat would be better than when portillo lost.

i believe nigel farage is more likely to be adopted as a tory candidate than the nefandous cameron

 

[Yossarian]

Cameron's presence might swing it for Leave in a tight second referendum, as long as they stressed that a vote for Leave is a vote for making David Cameron cry.

 

[Crispy]

Article 50 extension two months max supposedly

54 days exactly, I expect. So as not to reach the MEP elections on 23rd May

 

[Pickman's model]

Cameron's presence might swing it for Leave in a tight second referendum, as long as they stressed that a vote for Leave is a vote for making David Cameron cry.

he could no nothing greater for the remain camp than come out as a brexiter

 

[DotCommunist]

I see may has challenged el corb to a debate. Or is considering it. Apparently corbyn tore his shirt off his chest an said 'bring it' or similar.

Not sure I see what the point of a debate here is.The deal itself or wider questions/issues?

 

[SpackleFrog]

It remains to be seen how well Corbyn will do but I can't see this going well for May.

 

[Pickman's model]

I see may has challenged el corb to a debate. Or is considering it. Apparently corbyn tore his shirt off his chest an said 'bring it' or similar.

Not sure I see what the point of a debate here is.The deal itself or wider questions/issues?

i don't think she'll do so well without serried ranks of howler monkey impersonators behind her

 

[tommers]

Cameron's presence might swing it for Leave in a tight second referendum, as long as they stressed that a vote for Leave is a vote for making David Cameron cry.

Exactly why my mum voted "leave".

 

[Wilf]

There's a truism that only the weaker party/candidate calls for a televised debate, which would certainly fit with May on this one. Dunno who would win, it should be Corbyn on the attack, highlighting the multiple fuck ups that have lead us to where we are. Same time, from memory, he's never performed that well on brexit - partly because both he and Labour have quite waffly positions.

 

[Sprocket.]

if there's one man in british politics more despised than tony blair and nick griffin it's david cameron

It’s old speculative news from the beginning of the month, he wouldn’t get on the local council the treacherous sack of shit.

 

[Wilf]

It’s old speculative news from the beginning of the month, he wouldn’t get on the local council the treacherous sack of shit.

He's too fucking hopeless to even get a multi-million pound gig with facebook. Comes to something when you get outflanked by clegg.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

It remains to be seen how well Corbyn will do but I can't see this going well for May.

May can't do this stuff. The last GE debates demonstrated that she cannot think on her feet or communicate effectively. It's a sign of her desperation that this is even being mooted. For Corbyn the task is simple - expose the severe and irreparable splits within the Tories/ruling class on the issue and set out what exit would and could look like under Labour.

On the latter I expect him to fail. Labour's flirtation with a second vote to deliver Britain back to the crumbling neo-liberal superstate model might offer short term gain but will offer long term defeat of the project.