Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[cupid_stunt]

Corbyn has just hinted that Labour would support a 'softer brexit':
Jeremy Corbyn tells May softer Brexit could win Commons support - Politics live

I'm (genuinely) unsure what his game is with that.

I think he's unsure too.

 

[MickiQ]

I think that's exactly it. Labourism, collectively, is as incapable of imagining a world without neo-liberalism as the neo-cons and liberals. There are many reasons for this some more understandable and forgivable than others.

Whilst Corbyn and his gang have opted for critiquing the positions of the two squabbling camps (and avoiding any attempt to own or command the agenda), the unions seem to have totally intellectually collapsed into remain - and not even the 'remain to reform' position of Varoufakis etc - as the best option their members can hope for. The lack of ambition, imagination and 'leadership' is fatal.

The rational Leave argument is the same whether it comes from the left or the right, it boils down to
"Leaving the EU will hurt the UK in the short and medium term but the pain is worth it, since in the long run being free of the contraints of the EU a better Britain can be built". (albeit with 2 very different views of what constitutes a better Britain)
The rational Remain argument comes down to "The short term pain is too great to be worth it and any claims of jam tomorrow are wildly optimistic"
Remain is the only possible choice for the TUC, there's no way it can take a position of being willing to accept large short term job losses in return for some distant and not very well defined future.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Remain is the only possible choice for the TUC, there's no way it can take a position of being willing to accept large short term job losses in return for some distant and not very well defined future.

Do you know what a trade union is?

 

[MickiQ]

Do you know what a trade union is?

I am well aware of the history of the trade union movement but in the here and now to the vast majority of their members their primary role is to protect their members jobs and defend them against whatever shit is heaped on them by their employers, not bring about social or economic reform. Any trade union that stood up and said we're willing to risk your jobs to bring about socialism is going to see it's membership crash through the floor.
Back in the days I was grade rep, the one question that I was always asked over and over again was why should I join? Furthering the cause of socialism isn't one that would be very popular.

 

[SpackleFrog]

their primary role is to protect their members

Yes, that's right. Emphasis on their job. No trade unionist gets to outsource protecting members.

 

[danny la rouge]

How long do you think it wouldve taken to build a consensus? This is as divisive an issue as there can be. From what I can tell there was no consensus on protectionism in the labour movement in the 70s either <a good parallel to these debates. Then you look at the make up of the current Labour party and I cant imagine a time ever when youd get anything resembling a consensus - maybe you could get it to 50/50, and that would be some achievement! It was never going to happen in reality and I doubt it would ever happen even in this alternate reality with plenty of lead time.

As to Labour theoretically leveraging a Hard Lexit, they could only ever leverage a no deal WTO Brexit, but they cant leverage a Lexit. This was only ever a right wing led Brexit. Maybe they might win a future election and be able to shape whatever it is they've been left with, but that's a very different thing from a "hard lexit".

So we just say TINA (there is no alternative), and join the neoliberals?

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I am well aware of the history of the trade union movement but in the here and now to the vast majority of their members their primary role is to protect their members jobs and defend them against whatever shit is heaped on them by their employers, not bring about social or economic reform. Any trade union that stood up and said we're willing to risk your jobs to bring about socialism is going to see it's membership crash through the floor.

This is a, bad, strawman you are attempting to set up here.

Firstly some unions, for example the RMT, have a long and continuing opposition to the E.U. precisely because they want to protect their members jobs and have drawn the conclusion that the EU is bad for their members jobs.

Second, the issue here is precisely what type of thinking is required to protect trade union members and others jobs - given that neither option on the table offers that. And on that the TUC, Unite and the majority of the TUC bureaucracy have folded into remain without a clue as to why, what comes next or about the implications of the clear and unambiguous economic strategy of the E.U./IMF/ECB

 

[Pickman's model]

.

 

[MickiQ]

This is a, bad, strawman you are attempting to set up here.

Firstly some unions, for example the RMT, have a long and continuing opposition to the E.U. precisely because they want to protect their members jobs and have drawn the conclusion that the EU is bad for their members jobs.

Second, the issue here is precisely what type of thinking is required to protect trade union members and others jobs - given that neither option on the table offers that.

What arguments are being advanced that Brexit will protect existing jobs?, there are certainly arguments that Brexit will create new jobs further down the line but that's not really the same thing.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

What arguments are being advanced that Brexit will protect existing jobs?, there are certainly arguments that Brexit will create new jobs further down the line but that's not really the same thing.

None. And that’s precisely the problem

 

[AnandLeo]

You want a Government of National Unity then?

No, I am not suggesting a government of National Unity, even though in effect that is the strategy for this crisis alone.

 

[binka]

I think Corbyn would lose a TV debate against May on Brexit. I don't think he's particularly good at the detail and she knows this shit inside out

 

[Duncan2]

I think Corbyn would lose a TV debate against May on Brexit. I don't think he's particularly good at the detail and she knows this shit inside out

I think he would do okay-the deal is a hard sell by any stretch of the imagination.No one wants it -the remainers think its shit compared to remain and the leavers would prefer no deal because their patience has run out.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I think Corbyn would lose a TV debate against May on Brexit. I don't think he's particularly good at the detail and she knows this shit inside out

You are Gavin Barwell and I claim my £5.

 

[SpackleFrog]

No, I am not suggesting a government of National Unity, even though in effect that is the strategy for this crisis alone.

What are you suggesting?

 

[MickiQ]

I think he would do okay-the deal is a hard sell by any stretch of the imagination.No one wants it -the remainers think its shit compared to remain and the leavers would prefer no deal because their patience has run out.

There isn't going to be a winner or a loser in this debate, I think May realises that the shit is finally about to land and wants to make sure that he gets hit by his fair share of it.

 

[binka]

I think he would do okay-the deal is a hard sell by any stretch of the imagination.No one wants it -the remainers think its shit compared to remain and the leavers would prefer no deal because their patience has run out.

She's managed to bat away pretty much every question she's been asked about it in the commons so far. Whatever she's asked she'll be able to quote some part of the agreement regardless of whether it really answers the question or not. Expect Corbyn to fuck up on the detail

 

[cupid_stunt]

Corbyn has always wanted out, but much of his party doesn't, he's like a deer caught in car headlights.

 

[Duncan2]

Corbyn has always wanted out, but much of his party doesn't, he's like a deer caught in car headlights.

Quite agree.He recently came to speak to the local Labour Club his visit being occasioned by the anticipated re-location to France of Alstom.He managed not to mention Brexit once in a forty minute speech in which he reminded us all of public services that were abolished so comprehensively by the Tories that most of us had forgotten they ever existed.

 

[redsquirrel]

I am well aware of the history of the trade union movement but in the here and now to the vast majority of their members their primary role is to protect their members jobs and defend them against whatever shit is heaped on them by their employers, not bring about social or economic reform.

It's this myopia that is precisely why (most) trade unions in modern times have failed in defending their members jobs and conditions.

The dismantling of the EU would not just protect members jobs and conditions it would actually provide an opportunity to improve conditions. You've created a false binary to fit your politics.

 

[MickiQ]

It's this myopia that is precisely why (most) trade unions in modern times have failed in defending their members jobs and conditions.

The dismantling of the EU would not just protect members jobs and conditions it would actually provide an opportunity to improve conditions. You've created a false binary to fit your politics.

I don''t believe you but I'll bite, how will the UK leaving the EU protect the many jobs that depend on smooth trade with the EU?

 

[Pickman's model]

I don''t believe you but I'll bite, how will the UK leaving the EU protect the many jobs that depend on smooth trade with the EU?

Using one weird trick Jean-Claude Juncker doesn't want you to know, I expect

 

[Pickman's model]

Quite agree.He recently came to speak to the local Labour Club his visit being occasioned by the anticipated re-location to France of Alstom.He managed not to mention Brexit once in a forty minute speech in which he reminded us all of public services that were abolished so comprehensively by the Tories that most of us had forgotten they ever existed.

Like an auld man in the pub forcing reminisces on you, I remember when... But them days are gone now

 

[quiet guy]

Open letter from Mike Harding to the Maybot which popped up on Faceache:

Dear Mrs May

I am in France having a break having come here on the train all the way from Settle. I just read your letter to me and the rest of Britain wanting us all to unite behind the damp squib you call a deal. Unite? I laughed so much the mouthful of frogs legs I was eating ended up dancing all over the bald head of the bloke on the opposite table.

Your party’s little civil war has divided this country irreparably. The last time this happened Cromwell discontinued the custom of kings wearing their heads on their shoulders. I had a mother who was of Irish descent, an English father who lies in a Dutch graveyard in the village where his Lancaster bomber fell in flames. I had a Polish stepfather who drove a tank for us in WW2 and I have two half Polish sisters and a half Polish brother who is married to a girl from Donegal. My two uncles of Irish descent fought for Britain in N Africa and in Burma.

So far you have called us Citizens Of Nowhere and Queue Jumpers. You have now taken away our children and grandchildren’s freedom to travel, settle, live and work in mainland Europe.

You have made this country a vicious and much diminished place. You as Home Sec sent a van round telling foreigners to go home. You said “ illegal” but that was bollocks as the legally here people of the Windrush generation soon discovered.

Your party has sold off our railways, water, electricity, gas, telecoms, Royal Mail etc until all we have left is the NHS and that is lined up for the US to have as soon as Hannon and Hunt can arrange it

You have lied to the people of this country. You voted Remain yet changed your tune when the chance to grab the job of PM came. You should have sacked those lying bastards Gove and Bojo but daren’t because you haven’t the actual power.

You have no answer to the British border on the island of Ireland nor do you know how the Gib border with Spain will work once we are out

Mrs May you have helped to divide this country to such an extent that families and friends are now no longer talking to each other, you have managed to negotiate a deal far worse than the one we had and all to keep together a party of millionaires, Eton Bullingdon boys, spivs and WI harridans. Your party conserves nothing. It has sold everything off in the name of the free market. You could have kept our industries going with investment and development - Germany managed it. But no - The Free Market won so Sunderland, Barnsley, Hamilton etc could all go to the devil

So Mrs May my answer to your plea for unity is firstly that it is ridiculous. 48% of us will never forgive you for Brexit and secondly, of the 52% that voted for it many will not forgive you for not giving them what your lying comrades like Rees Mogg and Fox promised them. There are no unicorns, there is no £350 million extra for the NHS. The economy will tank and there will be less taxes to help out the poor. We have 350,000 homeless (not rough sleepers - homeless) in one of the richest countries on Earth and you are about to increase that number with your damn fool Brexit.

The bald man has wiped the frogs legs of his head, I’ve bought him a glass of wine to say sorry; I’m typing this with one finger on my phone in France and I’m tired now and want to stop before my finger gets too tired to join the other one in a sailors salute to you and your squalid Brexit, your shabby xenophobia and Little Englander mentality. Two fingers to you and your unity from this proud citizen of nowhere. I and roughly half the country will never forgive you or your party.

 

[redsquirrel]

I don''t believe you but I'll bite, how will the UK leaving the EU protect the many jobs that depend on smooth trade with the EU?

You've attributed to me a position that I never made. I said the "dismantling of the EU" not "the UK leaving the EU".

The function of the EU is to attack labour, to drive down pay and conditions, it enables and participates in the attacks on workers such as the privatisation of public services. Weakening/removing a lever of capital would provide labour with new opportunities to exploit.

 

[mauvais]

The dismantling of the EU would not just protect members jobs and conditions it would actually provide an opportunity to improve conditions. You've created a false binary to fit your politics.

I don't disagree with the literal statement of this, but pointing out the obvious, it having any practical meaning is based on two enormous conditions - that Brexit presages or indeed induces the dismantling of the EU, and that someone actually will take positive advantage of the opportunity you describe.

What I've never really seen you articulate anywhere is also twofold: either why these outcomes are credible, or, if and when it doesn't pan out in this optimal way, how you'll excuse the consequences. In other words, what you would say to people who massively lose out when the "new opportunities to exploit" are predictably exploited by the enemy instead. Is it what, acceptable collateral damage in a longer game? Are you going to blame them for not taking advantage? Or are we just not entertaining the possibility until it happens?

 

[redsquirrel]

What I've never really seen you articulate anywhere is also twofold: either why these outcomes are credible,

I think Smokeandsteam has outlined some "credible" (and of course that do you mean by this) outcomes over the last couple of pages. But one obvious credible outcome would be re-nationalisation of industries, at this very moment RMT members are on strike in order to ensure their jobs are safe because train companies want to remove guards. The EU is part of the attack on their jobs and leaving the EU can provide their job security.

In other words, what you would say to people who massively lose out when the "new opportunities to exploit" are predictably exploited by the enemy instead.

Capital and labour are in constant antagonism, labour develops new ways of asserting its power only to see those structures co-opted by capital. The trade unions themselves are an excellent example of such. But as stated some pages back either you believe in the power of the working class to improve things or you might as well reject socialism entirely.

Lapavitsas  Do we believe in our own strength or not? Do we believe in the strength of working people, the power of the working class and the poorer layers of British society? If we don’t, we might as well pack up and go home. If the magnitude of the task scares us, there is no point talking about socialism and what the left should do. We can confront these people and defeat them – of course we can. We can oppose the EU and big business and we can defeat them. We should rely on the strength of working-class hostility towards the current regime in Britain and the current state of social affairs – which is very deep. And we can rely on the yearning of ordinary people for popular sovereignty.

 

[Cheesepig3]

Corbyn has always wanted out, but much of his party doesn't, he's like a deer caught in car headlights.

Why a deer?


I think he looks like some fictional hedge-dwelling creature, probably omnivorous but with a preference for weeds, from a 1950s children's allegorical picture book.

 

[Cheesepig3]

You've attributed to me a position that I never made. I said the "dismantling of the EU" not "the UK leaving the EU".

The function of the EU is to attack labour, to drive down pay and conditions, it enables and participates in the attacks on workers such as the privatisation of public services. Weakening/removing a lever of capital would provide labour with new opportunities to exploit.

The function of the EU is to prevent war in Europe.


The tool for this is economic; it has been co-opted.


The primary function is unaffected by that unwelcome fact.

 

[mauvais]

I think Smokeandsteam has outlined some "credible" (and of course that do you mean by this) outcomes over the last couple of pages. But one obvious credible outcome would be re-nationalisation of industries, at this very moment RMT members are on strike in order to ensure their jobs are safe because train companies want to remove guards. The EU is part of the attack on their jobs and leaving the EU can provide their job security.
Capital and labour are in constant antagonism, labour develops new ways of asserting its power only to see those structures co-opted by capital. The trade unions themselves are an excellent example of such. But as stated some pages back either you believe in the power of the working class to improve things or you might as well reject socialism entirely.

I believe in that in the same way that I believe in say, roses - definitely a thing, but we're probably not going to grow any in a cave. I think Brexit is a sideshow that ignores then defers having to deal with the fundamental problem: that there is no organised British WC ready to even defend itself on a substantive national basis, let alone avail itself of opportunities as they present. And no, I don't think Brexit automatically produces one any time soon, quite the opposite. In shit analogy terms, it'd be better to have figured out how to make new plants grow before blowing up the old garden.

Even in your RMT example, which is at least one of the better case studies, it's not entirely coherent. The RMT clearly is an organised entity ready to defend itself. However the immediate battle is not guards vs renationalisation, it's guards vs classic capital. Directly at least, that's local exploitation, not the EU. I understand why you introduce renationalisation into the mix as a device through which to improve their lot, and I understand why the EU is a negative factor, although I'm no international rail lawyer. However it's not a given that renationalisation produces an outcome in which their jobs are saved or their conditions are improved, e.g. austere government ownership is likely just as bad. It's even less of a given that UK rail post-Brexit is unaffected let alone improved by the whirlwind of other resultant general changes.

Now the point I'm badly making here could be mistaken for either a whataboutery-based defence of the EU or for fatalist pessimism but it's intended to be neither: it's that if the EU ends up being a sort of tertiary or later opponent to overall success, and you can't be sure that defeating it won't hand fatal advantages to your more immediate antagonists, is it all that good an idea to start there?