Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Wilf]

Trump mischief:
May's Brexit deal sounds like a 'great deal for the EU', says Trump

 

[mojo pixy]

Brexit, bringing out everyone's inner wanker since 2016

 

[Mr Moose]

Trump mischief:
May's Brexit deal sounds like a 'great deal for the EU', says Trump

Trump trying to groom us away from our allies in Europe.

His whole MO is sex pest.

 

[redsquirrel]

However it's not a given that renationalisation produces an outcome in which their jobs are saved or their conditions are improved, e.g. austere government ownership is likely just as bad. It's even less of a given that UK rail post-Brexit is unaffected let alone improved by the whirlwind of other resultant general changes.

Of course its not a given nothing ever is. But as I've just said if we don't trust the power of the working class to use this as an opportunity then when will we.

I think Brexit is a sideshow that ignores then defers having to deal with the fundamental problem: that there is no organised British WC ready to even defend itself on a substantive national basis, let alone avail itself of opportunities as they present. And no, I don't think Brexit automatically produces one any time soon, quite the opposite. In shit analogy terms, it'd be better to have figured out how to make new plants grow before blowing up the old garden.
.....
Now the point I'm badly making here could be mistaken for either a whataboutery-based defence of the EU or for fatalist pessimism but it's intended to be neither: it's that if the EU ends up being a sort of tertiary or later opponent to overall success, and you can't be sure that defeating it won't hand fatal advantages to your more immediate antagonists, is it all that good an idea to start there?

“Lord, grant me chastity and continence… but not yet."
How is any "organised British WC ready to ... defend itself on a substantive national basis" supposed to come into existence? How long are the workers expected to wait, seeing their workplaces and communities suffer, until the Labour Party/Unions/EU/whatever get around to saving them? You still some break between the EU (tertiary opponents) and capital but not such break exists.

The WC self-organises time and again and under all conditions. Where the conditions of the Russian people in 1917, Spanish workers in the 30s etc better than those of today?

 

[mauvais]

“Lord, grant me chastity and continence… but not yet."
How is any "organised British WC ready to ... defend itself on a substantive national basis" supposed to come into existence? How long are the workers expected to wait, seeing their workplaces and communities suffer, until the Labour Party/Unions/EU/whatever get around to saving them?

You tell me - you're the one who believes it'll naturally develop. After a decade of disastrous austerity it's not looking great though is it?

It does beg the question again as to whether your ideal Brexit is necessarily so ruinous, a bit like WWII, that it serves as the reset button event which changes the dominant politic. I wouldn't call massive disruption inherently objectionable - the alternative is confining oneselves to the piddliest of reforms - but if that is the idea, you do have questions to answer about what the acceptable costs are in the meantime. How many people will you let suffer or die for it?

And if it's not that, and it's about pragmatically seizing upon opportunities without this great event, then again, why will it be any different? Why isn't that happening now? It's not like capital and its political supporters have been in entirely rude health for the last decade, and yet here we are as usual.

 

[Mr Moose]

Of course its not a given nothing ever is. But as I've just said if we don't trust the power of the working class to use this as an opportunity then when will we.




“Lord, grant me chastity and continence… but not yet."
How is any "organised British WC ready to ... defend itself on a substantive national basis" supposed to come into existence? How long are the workers expected to wait, seeing their workplaces and communities suffer, until the Labour Party/Unions/EU/whatever get around to saving them? You still some break between the EU (tertiary opponents) and capital but not such break exists.

The WC self-organises time and again and under all conditions. Where the conditions of the Russian people in 1917, Spanish workers in the 30s etc better than those of today?

Is Brexit really the working class in action? More like being told what to do by elites in two different directions. One of which is a rightward path.

Nationalisations are no more likely than an indebtedness to Trump’s US and the politics to go with it which would reject nationalisations wholesale.

If the argument for nationalisations was won it could simply roll over the EU’s rules on it. They are full of holes and contradictions. Do it and let it play out in court.

 

[redsquirrel]

You tell me - you're the one who believes it'll naturally develop. After a decade of disastrous austerity it's not looking great though is it?

No that was your phrase not mine. And you're the one arguing that the wc must wait (for what?). Your position is essentially that of many TU leaderships that "we can't fight now, we're not strong enough", completely missing the point that most unions are so weak because they aren't willing to put up a serious fight.

My position is that labour is the only power to challenge capital. That the WC has and will continually self-organise itself and the process of WC action enables that self-organisation, and vice versa. Most people didn't believe that in there was an "organised WC ready to ... defend itself on a substantive national basis" in Russia in 1917 but the actions of the workers created such a situation.

It does beg the question again as to whether your ideal Brexit is necessarily so ruinous

I've not made any mention of my "ideal Brexit".

 

[redsquirrel]

Is Brexit really the working class in action?

Again, I'm arguing it provides opportunities for working class action.

More like being told what to do by elites in two different directions. One of which is a rightward path.

And which path isn't? Remain?

 

[sleaterkinney]

Where the conditions of the Russian people in 1917, Spanish workers in the 30s etc better than those of today?

When is the revolution starting?

 

[SpackleFrog]

I don't disagree with the literal statement of this, but pointing out the obvious, it having any practical meaning is based on two enormous conditions - that Brexit presages or indeed induces the dismantling of the EU, and that someone actually will take positive advantage of the opportunity you describe.

What I've never really seen you articulate anywhere is also twofold: either why these outcomes are credible, or, if and when it doesn't pan out in this optimal way, how you'll excuse the consequences. In other words, what you would say to people who massively lose out when the "new opportunities to exploit" are predictably exploited by the enemy instead. Is it what, acceptable collateral damage in a longer game? Are you going to blame them for not taking advantage? Or are we just not entertaining the possibility until it happens?

I think these questions have been raised a few times, but here's another go:

You talk about risk, and people losing out, and obviously by that you mean leaving the Single Market and the Customs Union, which you fear will mean economic pain. If that were to happen, absolutely, global markets would punish the economy, and the only way to make it work would be to delink from global markets, take infrastructure production and trade into public ownership, and plan the economy in some way. And in any case, the economic pain is already happening and getting worse, and it's the result of govt policy not the referendum.

But that isn't actually ever going to happen and it never was going to happen - there's no way we're getting out of the Single Market cos we had a vote. It would require a political struggle to leave in any meaningful sense.

Likely consequences are the humiliation of British capitalism or the diminishing of Britain's role, which has already happened. But nothing that will affect you and me.

What is important in this is to create both an alternative politics based on the working class and the confidence in the working class in their own ability to transform society. And it's just not possible to do that if when confronted by legitimate criticisms of the EU, which is basically a club for capitalist government's designed to defend, maintain and promote the position of white European capitalism in the global economic order, your answer is to say "well yes it might not be perfect but it's the best we can hope for."

 

[Pickman's model]

When is the revolution starting?

I'm coming up so you better get this rev'lution started

 

[Pickman's model]

Again, I'm arguing it provides opportunities for working class action.

And which path isn't? Remain?

R is for right, and also for remain
L is for left, and also for leave

Neither is inherently right or inherently left

 

[SpackleFrog]

When is the revolution starting?

Now you're definitely on the Special Treatment list.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I understand why you introduce renationalisation into the mix as a device through which to improve their lot, and I understand why the EU is a negative factor, although I'm no international rail lawyer. However it's not a given that renationalisation produces an outcome in which their jobs are saved or their conditions are improved, e.g. austere government ownership is likely just as bad.

This is not the only reason nor the only purpose of nationisation - genuine democratic ownership of infrastructure opens up a whole world of possibilities.

 

[mauvais]

I think these questions have been raised a few times, but here's another go:

You talk about risk, and people losing out, and obviously by that you mean leaving the Single Market and the Customs Union, which you fear will mean economic pain.

No. Changes to the SM or CU or whatever else are intangible political acts that create a vacuum, and it's only what fills that vacuum that produces consequences. I doubt I need to enumerate what those might be, and I wouldn't say it's necessarily the externalities of global capital either; much of it is domestic politics. But, to use a small example as an illustration: we are freed from the obligations of EU food safety law -> British legislation needs to be implemented, can be made better or worse -> argument -> something happens to food safety in Britain. Is it good or bad? Well, as it stands, who is likely to argue for what, and who is likely to win?

What is important in this is to create both an alternative politics based on the working class and the confidence in the working class in their own ability to transform society. And it's just not possible to do that if when confronted by legitimate criticisms of the EU, which is basically a club for capitalist government's designed to defend, maintain and promote the position of white European capitalism in the global economic order, your answer is to say "well yes it might not be perfect but it's the best we can hope for."

Not that either, although I can see why you'd think that. It's fundamentally whether the balance is such that disrupting one part of that order can currently result in a net gain. Like kicking one prison guard in the nuts.

 

[SpackleFrog]

No. Changes to the SM or CU or whatever else are intangible political acts that create a vacuum, and it's only what fills that vacuum that produces consequences. I doubt I need to enumerate what those might be, and I wouldn't say it's necessarily the externalities of global capital either; much of it is domestic politics. But, to use a small example as an illustration: we are freed from the obligations of EU food safety law -> British legislation needs to be implemented, can be made better or worse -> argument -> something happens to food safety in Britain. Is it good or bad? Well, as it stands, who is likely to argue for what, and who is likely to win?
Not that either, although I can see why you'd think that. It's fundamentally whether the balance is such that disrupting one part of that order can currently result in a net gain. Like kicking one prison guard in the nuts.

I don't know why I bother

 

[mauvais]

No that was your phrase not mine. And you're the one arguing that the wc must wait (for what?). Your position is essentially that of many TU leaderships that "we can't fight now, we're not strong enough", completely missing the point that most unions are so weak because they aren't willing to put up a serious fight.

There's a fundamental difference between surrender and starting a new fight you aren't going to win. In the long term, perhaps they amount to much the same thing, but the difference is time. Time to use how, well if I knew the answer to, 'wait for what?', then I would be in a much happier place, but after a lifetime of post-Thatcher British politics I don't have it. 'Wait for ruin' seems like the most likely catalyst for anything to change, but it remains unclear to me whether you find that to be acceptable.

My position is that labour is the only power to challenge capital. That the WC has and will continually self-organise itself and the process of WC action enables that self-organisation, and vice versa. Most people didn't believe that in there was an "organised WC ready to ... defend itself on a substantive national basis" in Russia in 1917 but the actions of the workers created such a situation

OK. What do you think it will take to reach this point in contemporary Britain?

I've not made any mention of my "ideal Brexit".

I know. This is why I'm here trying to second guess what it is. What is it?

 

[Pickman's model]

I know. This is why I'm here trying to second guess what it is. What is it?

first guess not good enough i suppose. third time the charm.

 

[Mr Moose]

Again, I'm arguing it provides opportunities for working class action.

And which path isn't? Remain?

True, Remain isn’t it either. It’s simply not been a helpful question.

All it appears to have done is solidify nationalism as a leading way for the working class to exert itself. Not the leading way, but not a healthy situation either.

 

[ViolentPanda]

You are Gavin Barwell and I claim my £5.

That's got to be the worst, most horrid and degenerate cuss I've ever read!

 

[ViolentPanda]

Corbyn has always wanted out, but much of his party doesn't, he's like a deer caught in car headlights.

I'm not so sure. He's enough of an old-fashioned social democrat that (unlike, for instance, Thatcher or Blair) he'll bend to the majority will as leader. I suspect (given his advisors) that he's waiting for public opinion to settle, which it should do within the next couple of days, before taking a firm position. That's what I would do anyway, keep those centrist fucks in his own party guessing, as well as May's zombies.

 

[Arbeter Fraynd]

I don't agree with everything Seymour says here, especially around racism/immigration, and I don't draw the same conclusions. But well worth a listen -

 

[ska invita]

Interesting predictions from Preston, including that Labour .. Including Corbyn! ...is planning to move for second ref if the deal gets voted do down

 

[Kaka Tim]

i think preston is right in that the uk is heading for the biggest political and constitutional crises since ... WW2 certainly - the 17th century? All the options - no deal, 2nd ref, tory party splintering norway option, labour and tory party splintering general election - have massive repercussions.

Weather corbyn is going to whip out the 2nd ref card i dont know - how reliable are preston's sources? Could very well be kite flying by labour reaminers (starmer?).

 

[ska invita]

i think preston is right in that the uk is heading for the biggest political and constitutional crises since ... WW2 certainly - the 17th century? All the options - no deal, 2nd ref, tory party splintering norway option, labour and tory party splintering general election - have massive repercussions.

Weather corbyn is going to whip out the 2nd ref card i dont know - how reliable are preston's sources? Could very well be kite flying by labour reaminers (starmer?).

yeah it could be kite flying....ive read signs of both McDonnell and Starmer backing second ref...Corbyn till now has remained fence sitting but that has to stop at some point...after the vote fails would be the very last moment to take a position.

including this Labour’s John McDonnell in secret talks with People’s Vote

 

[Pickman's model]

i think preston is right in that the uk is heading for the biggest political and constitutional crises since ... WW2 certainly - the 17th century? All the options - no deal, 2nd ref, tory party splintering norway option, labour and tory party splintering general election - have massive repercussions.

Weather corbyn is going to whip out the 2nd ref card i dont know - how reliable are preston's sources? Could very well be kite flying by labour reaminers (starmer?).

soz where's your actual constitutional crisis?

 

[Kaka Tim]

soz where's your actual constitutional crisis?

"peoples will" (the referendum) vs representative democracy - plus parliament unable to enact any agreement - plus potential ECJ ruling on A50 revokability - government cant command support of house but cant be forced toe hold GE - political deadlock - parties split in all directions. Scotland and norn iron place in union post brexit.
Cluster and Fuck.

 

[skyscraper101]

Hallmarks of Blair here. It's her Iraq. She'll go to the grave defending it because admitting otherwise would be to admit she was wrong (read 'weak') and her ego wouldn't forgive it. Like him, she's probably convinced herself by now anyway this is the best thing on offer for the country, because it's easier to defend bullshit when you believe it's true. She'll go down fighting, but she'll never admit she was wrong. She doesn't believe she is wrong anyway. This is the pointlessness of where we're at now.

 

[Pickman's model]

"peoples will" (the referendum) vs representative democracy - plus parliament unable to enact any agreement - plus potential ECJ ruling on A50 revokability - government cant command support of house but cant be forced toe hold GE - political deadlock - parties split in all directions. Scotland and norn iron place in union post brexit.
Cluster and Fuck.

yeh clusterfuck. but - as yet - no one is counterposing a parliamentary solution to narodnaya volya. no one is saying 'let parliament overturn the referendum result without referring the matter back to the populace'. there is as yet no crisis of constitutional proportions, although that may follow in a month or two. if parliament being unable to enact an agreement constituted a constitutional crisis then we have been in a state of constitutional crisis for many years since parliament found itself unable to reach any final settlement of the constitution of the house of lords.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Hallmarks of Blair here. It's her Iraq. She'll go to the grave defending it because admitting otherwise would be to admit she was wrong (read 'weak') and her ego wouldn't forgive it. Like him, she's probably convinced herself by now anyway this is the best thing on offer for the country, because it's easier to defend bullshit when you believe it's true. She'll go down fighting, but she'll never admit she was wrong. She doesn't believe she is wrong anyway. This is the pointlessness of where we're at now.

Its interesting how it looks like they are going to put it to the vote - even though they know that it is going to heavily defeated - some pundits are suggesting they could lose the vote by as many as 100!
Unlike Blair i think she just utterly unflexibly - it has been suggested that she has some sort of autistic spectrum disorder and this does kind of chime with that. "I have said i will put this agreement before the house of commons therefore i will" - even though its utterly pointless and she will be totally humiliated.
Also if labour is hinting that it is going to move to support a 2nd ref - its a green light for every remainer to vote it down.