Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[tommers]

its utterly pointless and she will be totally humiliated.

If I was her I would be looking forwards to that glorious day. Quick resignation and some other twat can deal with it while I shout at them from the backbenches.

 

[skyscraper101]

Its interesting how it looks like they are going to put it to the vote - even though they know that it is going to heavily defeated - some pundits are suggesting they could lose the vote by as many as 100!
Unlike Blair i think she just utterly unflexibly - it has been suggested that she has some sort of autistic spectrum disorder and this does kind of chime with that. "I have said i will put this agreement before the house of commons therefore i will" - even though its utterly pointless and she will be totally humiliated.
Also if labour is hinting that it is going to move to support a 2nd ref - its a green light for every remainer to vote it down.

It's manoeuvring for the inevitable isn't it. "I have said i will put this agreement before the house of commons therefore i will" - and when it goes tits up and she leaves office she can forever defend herself in those terms "At all times I acted honourably and by the will of the people" - it's a bit of Thatch and Blair all in one here. No humility. Book deal and memoirs to follow.

 

[Pickman's model]

it has been suggested that she has some sort of autistic spectrum disorder and this does kind of chime with that.

i always like seeing people leap to attach the rumour of some sort of medical condition to someone's inept stubborness, like you've got to have something wrong with you to do something so spectacularly stupid.

 

[sleaterkinney]

I think it's just stiff upper lip and duty etc, look at the way she grovels before the queen.

 

[Wilf]

"peoples will" (the referendum) vs representative democracy - plus parliament unable to enact any agreement - plus potential ECJ ruling on A50 revokability - government cant command support of house but cant be forced toe hold GE - political deadlock - parties split in all directions. Scotland and norn iron place in union post brexit.
Cluster and Fuck.

I think there could certainly be institutional deadlock and possibly competing legal challenges, though I'm not sure it would technically be a constitutional crisis. It will partly be events unfolding, a lack of obvious protocol about how to cope with a rejected deal. Politicians losing control to some extent (though they rather than us are still able to reset the rules of the game). However I think the interesting issue is whether this institutional deadlock triggers anything real, away from Westminster. There were claims that 'brexit betrayed' will bring people onto the streets, maybe even violence, whereas the dominant emotion at the moment seems to resignation and boredom.

 

[Pickman's model]

I think there could certainly be institutional deadlock and possibly competing legal challenges, though I'm not sure it would technically be a constitutional crisis. It will partly be events unfolding, a lack of obvious protocol about how to cope with a rejected deal. Politicians losing control to some extent (though they rather than us are still able to reset the rules of the game). However I think the interesting issue is whether this institutional deadlock triggers anything real, away from Westminster. There were claims that 'brexit betrayed' will bring people onto the streets, maybe even violence, whereas the dominant emotion at the moment seems to resignation and boredom.

yeh but auld kaka t's reaching for the portentous phrases so beloved of the likes of 'that awful little man' nicholas witchell.

 

[Wilf]

yeh but auld kaka t's reaching for the portentous phrases so beloved of the likes of 'that awful little man' nicholas witchell.

Witchell's either a plucky man for our times or a weirdy little masochist. He had a career built on toadying and flunky-flattery, only to find that the object of his crawling thought he was a dreadful little oik. But still, 20 years on he's still a royal correspondent. Hit me again m'lord!

 

[littlebabyjesus]

There were claims that 'brexit betrayed' will bring people onto the streets, maybe even violence, whereas the dominant emotion at the moment seems to resignation and boredom.

Yep, I don't envisage a big march in London to Make Brexit Happen, with Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage leading the multitudes arm in arm at the front. I think a few people have misjudged this tbh - I think there is more anger at the idea of brexit happening, especially a shit one, than there is at the idea of democracy betrayed if it doesn't.

 

[skyscraper101]

I think it's just stiff upper lip and duty etc, look at the way she grovels before the queen.

She's next level groveller.

 

[Kaka Tim]

yeh but auld kaka t's reaching for the portentous phrases so beloved of the likes of 'that awful little man' nicholas witchell.

leaf it out. the potential constitutional crises is the conflict between the direct democracy of the referendum and the representative democracy of westminster - i dont think thats an overblown observation - its totally paralysed the political machinery for the past 2 years.

 

[Wilf]

Yep, I don't envisage a big march in London to Make Brexit Happen, with Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage leading the multitudes arm in arm at the front. I think a few people have misjudged this tbh - I think there is more anger at the idea of brexit happening, especially a shit one, than there is at the idea of democracy betrayed if it doesn't.

I'm not even sure about that. The original vote was designed by Cameron as a way of solving the tory party's own problems and, temporarily became a release valve, something owned by the voters, and expression of identity, grievance and the rest. Since then the whole thing has passed back into the ownership of the elites and the bubble. They may struggle to sort it, to play it out as inner party and intra-party advantage - there may be a 'crisis' over the next few weeks. But it has long since ceased to be connected to 'us', the people, social interests, life. The form of brexit that is or isn't achieved will no doubt make a difference to us, but it has gone back to being one of the things that created the leave vote - politicians doing politics.

 

[Kaka Tim]

and no - i dont see great mobs taking to the streets demanding brexit now - maybe a demo with a few tens of thousands that ends up like the country side alliance dust up with the cops in parliament square back in 2003? 2004? With about the same political impact and - hopefully - entertainment value (insert pigs vs gammon joke here)

 

[Gerry1time]

Yep, I don't envisage a big march in London to Make Brexit Happen, with Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage leading the multitudes arm in arm at the front. I think a few people have misjudged this tbh - I think there is more anger at the idea of brexit happening, especially a shit one, than there is at the idea of democracy betrayed if it doesn't.

For all the talk of foreign involvement in the Brexit vote itself, it seems often missed that there will be tons of astro turf based online campaigning around this still going on. I'm pretty convinced that a number of the commenters on Conservative Home Brexit articles are astro-turfers, and it's been interesting to see 'new members' pop on here to post threads about Brexit too.

My guess is that things like the failed Rees-Mogg leadership challenge actually pull back the curtain on what is actually just a small but vociferous minority that has cash to spend on seeming bigger than they are, and is still invested in that mission.

 

[Wilf]

leaf it out. the potential constitutional crises is the conflict between the direct democracy of the referendum and the representative democracy of westminster - i dont think thats an overblown observation - its totally paralysed the political machinery for the past 2 years.

I think it's exactly that and the executive feel a sense of restraint on their actions following the vote from 2016. In their different ways, both corbyn and may are shitting it about being portrayed as betraying the popular will, an almost sacred cow in democratic theory. Usually democracy is about the absolute opposite of the popular will, in that it passes power to people to do the ruling. So yes, I agree this is an odd moment in that direct democracy has taken place and sits there as a huge bolder that the government are struggling to get round. However I get a sense that it won't ever become a real crisis. Anyway, fuck 'em.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Yep, I don't envisage a big march in London to Make Brexit Happen, with Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage leading the multitudes arm in arm at the front. I think a few people have misjudged this tbh - I think there is more anger at the idea of brexit happening, especially a shit one, than there is at the idea of democracy betrayed if it doesn't.

The suggestion made by Burnham and others is a risk of civil disobedience and unrest rather than a march round London waving banners/placards. Given the impulses that led to the initial vote - anger, disillusionment, peripheralisation, left behindness, joblessness, wage and living standard collapse - in many working class areas your 'thoughts' seem to discount the latent anger already bubbling away on a daily basis about many things. If people who have already opted out of voting in elections perceive they are also getting stitched up on a referendum vote then bar violence what avenues would they perceive open to them to register their concerns?

 

[8ball]

She's next level groveller.

Something about these pics make me think her tongue is about to shoot out and whip the hapless Royal into her dislocating maw.
Not sure whether to be disappointed when it doesn't happen.

 

[TopCat]

Remainers willing to ignore the biggest democratic exercise in living memory in order to save capitalism are playing with fire.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I think it's exactly that and the executive feel a sense of restraint on their actions following the vote from 2016. In their different ways, both corbyn and may are shitting it about being portrayed as betraying the popular will

There wouldn't be much need to 'portray' it would there?

 

[Pickman's model]

leaf it out. the potential constitutional crises is the conflict between the direct democracy of the referendum and the representative democracy of westminster - i dont think thats an overblown observation - its totally paralysed the political machinery for the past 2 years.

no, what's paralysed westminster is the May administration's valiant fight to prevent a parliamentary vote on a.50, the May administration's bold decision to hold a general election when none was necessary, the may administration's inability to decide before launching a.50 what it actually wanted, the may administration's waste of time with the Davis 'negotiations' while behind the brexit secretary's back may was preparing something quite different.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Remainers willing to ignore the biggest democratic exercise in living memory in order to save capitalism are playing with fire.

The political class is clearly recovering its nerve after accidentally opening up a Pandora’s box of working-class anger and frustration but you are spot on about the potential implications and kickback. There are so many grievances and so much anger about so many things that a politico stitch up means all bets are definitely and firmly off.

 

[chilango]

If either side are going to go down the route of civil disobedience and then consequent unrest they'd need some tangible, material site of resisisres linked to the issue. Like not paying the Poll Tax or something.

I can't think of anything for this though.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

If either side are going to go down the route of civil disobedience and then consequent unrest they'd need some tangible, material site of resisisres linked to the issue. Like not paying the Poll Tax or something.

I can't think of anything for this though.

As we are currently seeing in France this isn't how it works. Seemingly innocuous measures, taxes, issues - anything associated with the governing class - can explode as a vessel for popular anger.

 

[andysays]

"peoples will" (the referendum) vs representative democracy - plus parliament unable to enact any agreement - plus potential ECJ ruling on A50 revokability - government cant command support of house but cant be forced toe hold GE - political deadlock - parties split in all directions. Scotland and norn iron place in union post brexit.
Cluster and Fuck.

It's certainly a cluster fuck, and a potential crisis of political legitimacy, but not sure if it counts as a constitutional crisis, or if that especially matters.

On the question of whether A50 can be revoked, see here
Brexit court case 'could lead to disaster', EU lawyers warn

Allowing the UK to unilaterally halt the Brexit process could lead to "disaster", judges at Europe's top court have been warned. The European Court of Justice is deliberating on whether the UK can call off its withdrawal from the EU without permission from member states. But lawyers acting for the EU said allowing countries to do so could create "endless uncertainty".

To be clear, they're talking about it being a disaster for the EU, as it would

set a precedent where other countries would be able to formally notify their intention to leave and then seek better terms from the remaining EU countries, before cancelling their withdrawal

The court has said it will aim to decide "quickly" on the case, but has not yet set a date for doing so...

 

[skyscraper101]

If either side are going to go down the route of civil disobedience and then consequent unrest they'd need some tangible, material site of resisisres linked to the issue. Like not paying the Poll Tax or something.

I can't think of anything for this though.

I'd be up for some more Poll Tax Riots in Traf Sq. for old times sake.

 

[Wilf]

There wouldn't be much need to 'portray' it would there?

True and in some ways, many even, I'd like to see that reaction to 'brexit betrayed'. It's just in the absence of any kind of lexit it's likely to be a resurgent ukip lead revolt, not an active working class reaction. My feeling ultimately though is there probably won't be much of a street reaction of any sort.

 

[chilango]

As we are currently seeing in France this isn't how it works. Seemingly innocuous measures, taxes, issues - anything associated with the governing class - can explode as a vessel for popular anger.

Yes. In France.

The precedents here are far more limited.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Yes. In France.

The precedents here are far more limited.

There is no precedent for the denial of a popular vote which would be the case. To predict the outcome - as has been attempted on here - is impossible.

 

[agricola]

As we are currently seeing in France this isn't how it works. Seemingly innocuous measures, taxes, issues - anything associated with the governing class - can explode as a vessel for popular anger.

TBF I doubt that the gilets jaune thing is that much "popular anger" as it is the same sort of mass moaning that we saw here with the fuel tax protests of the early 2000s - ie: people who have continually voted for Government to deal harshly with other people suddenly finding that the man wants them to stump up a bit more cash.

I am not a fan of Macron at all, but at least based on the abject cowardice that every government here since has shown to that lot (and Brexit could easily be a consequence given how many people who expressed support for those protests are pro-Brexit now) since he really needs not cave into their demands.

 

[Pickman's model]

There is no precedent for the denial of a popular vote which would be the case. To predict the outcome - as has been attempted on here - is impossible.

No, it isn't. We may not know what will happen but we can prognosticate. It's what we do here, speculate.

 

[Pickman's model]

There is no precedent for the denial of a popular vote which would be the case. To predict the outcome - as has been attempted on here - is impossible.

Tbh do you think there's the stomach, among anyone, for another three years of this shit?