Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[SpackleFrog]

"peoples will" (the referendum) vs representative democracy - plus parliament unable to enact any agreement - plus potential ECJ ruling on A50 revokability - government cant command support of house but cant be forced toe hold GE - political deadlock - parties split in all directions. Scotland and norn iron place in union post brexit.
Cluster and Fuck.

There's no constitutional crisis. The referendum was never binding they can do what they like including nothing. People might lose their shit at some point but it's not a constitutional crisis.

 

[Wolveryeti]

Those saying that they can’t see that there will be pushback from a cancelled Brexit are taking an INCREDIBLY short-term view of the glorious history of rioting in this country. It was basically a national pastime from the 13th century (at least) up until, well, 2011 (at least). If the public feel they aren’t being heard, they riot.

ETA: And I’m not saying that like it’s a bad thing either. Sometimes a riot is the only way to get things done.

Brexit is already cancelled. May's deal has set the future pattern:

Phase 1: Make a lot of noise about how we're going to start from a blank sheet, take back control and how it will basically be great and involve no trade-offs.
Phase 2: Realise there are some pretty epic trade-offs.
Phase 3: Shit pants and kick absolutely all the difficult decisions into the next planning cycle while effectively maintaining the status quo. Go back to Phase 1.

I hope the Dads Army rioters are getting prepped to fuck shit up...

 

[gosub]

And so it goes

 

[Duncan2]

Also, who are you? Jeremy Corbyn? It’s difficult enough to get an MP to represent your interests nationally never mind internationally.

Have to agree with this.If as LBJ says the "direction of travel" can so easily be challenged why have there been so few challenges in all the years of EU membership and why have the challenges there have been so easily crushed? It sometimes seems as though being in Europe puts the kind of solidarity that is needed even for "mild social-democratic reforms" quite out of reach.

 

[Yossarian]

Rioting is generally a young person's activity.

The Countryside Alliance got a little feisty when they came to town and that definitely wasn't all young people.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Have to agree with this.If as LBJ says the "direction of travel" can so easily be challenged why have there been so few challenges in all the years of EU membership and why have the challenges there have been so easily crushed? It sometimes seems as though being in Europe puts the kind of solidarity that is needed even for "mild social-democratic reforms" quite out of reach.

hmm - but has any of the more powerful EU nations ever tried to challenge it? the uk and germany have been at the forefront of pushing neo-liberalism within the EU. A labour government might get more traction - also if you have other leftists government in spain, portugal and maybe france things could shift.
of course - its all maybes and perhaps - and nothing changing at all is a very strong possibility - but if we are talking pipe dreams - which is more likey? - a socialist UK thriving outside the EU as argued by the lexiters or some sort leftwards reform from within?
Without a strong manufacturing base and an significant organised working class movement the uk outside the Eu is just going to butt fucked by capital.

 

[Duncan2]

hmm - but has any of the more powerful EU nations ever tried to challenge it? the uk and germany have been at the forefront of pushing neo-liberalism within the EU. A labour government might get more traction - also if you have other leftists government in spain, portugal and maybe france things could shift.
of course - its all maybes and perhaps - and nothing changing at all is a very strong possibility - but if we are talking pipe dreams - which is more likey? - a socialist UK thriving outside the EU as argued by the lexiters or some sort leftwards reform from within?
Without a strong manufacturing base and an significant organised working class movement the uk outside the Eu is just going to butt fucked by capital.

Not at all certain about any of this myself but it does seem to me that the longer we remain in the EU the more any idea of there being an organised working class movement in the UK recedes.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Not at all certain about any of this myself but it does seem to me that the longer we remain in the EU the more any idea of there being an organised working class movement in the UK recedes.

i think we'll be waiting a long time wherever the uk ends up.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

hmm - but has any of the more powerful EU nations ever tried to challenge it? the uk and germany have been at the forefront of pushing neo-liberalism within the EU. A labour government might get more traction - also if you have other leftists government in spain, portugal and maybe france things could shift.
of course - its all maybes and perhaps - and nothing changing at all is a very strong possibility - but if we are talking pipe dreams - which is more likey? - a socialist UK thriving outside the EU as argued by the lexiters or some sort leftwards reform from within?
Without a strong manufacturing base and an significant organised working class movement the uk outside the Eu is just going to butt fucked by capital.

Aside from all the legal stuff preventing that from happening why would any member state let alone several want to do this? What would be motivating them to basically go against their own class interests? Again without pressure from the significant working class movement you speak of?
And if we agree that that pressure needs to be there in the first place, then why would this movement have more success putting pressure on the govt whilst we are in the EU? This just doesn’t make sense.

Although I expect at this time of day neither do I

 

[Gerry1time]

The institutions of the EU are secondary in power to national governments. That gets lost in a lot of this, and is reflected in the wording of treaties - there are 'national security' get-out clauses for most things.

The direction of travel can be challenged, particularly by a non-euro country. The UK has never challenged anything over this direction because it has been a main driver of it. Butchers was right earlier when he said that the EU was made in Thatcher's image, or words to that effect. When you look at privatisations, for instance, you see that the UK was the first and deepest to have done this in the whole of the EU. No British government has had pushback from the EU because its policies weren't capitalist enough for the EU's institutions. The British version of capitalism at least since 1979 (some would say since 1976) is far more brutal than that of any other EU country. The idea that mild social democratic reforms would be blocked by an all-powerful EU is at the very least questionable. Get those things in a manifesto, get elected on that manifesto, drive the reforms through in the name of your democratic mandate. The EU doesn't have the financial leverage over the UK that it has over eurozone countries. Get treaties renegotiated if necessary - drive through reforms of the EU - and as agricola says, get others to come along with you on that drive. Help those stuck in the eurozone bind to challenge the undemocratic restraints they are under. Build better things across borders.

Awesome post. My dad lived in southern France in the mid 90's, and I remember having conversations with various people there who were utterly puzzled about why some people in Britain were opposed to Europe. Their attitude was take it for all the subsidy money you can get, and if it tells you to do something you don't like, just give a gallic shrug and ignore it. As far as they were concerned, those were the fairly open rules of the game, that we just didn't seem to get.

It also one of the many reasons I'm annoyed at the Lib Dems over all of this. They were meant to be the pro-european party, but instead of being in there arguing for europe to be *better*, they just acted like the sun shone out of its arse, and everything it said had to be followed. Blair was reasonably similar. If we'd had a political party in this country who were in europe to advocate strongly for the UK within it, we might be in a very different situation now.

 

[kabbes]

Approximately one person of voting age under 25 in every ten voted for Brexit.

I.e. hundreds of thousands if not millions of people under 25.

But do you think only people under 25 riot?

 

[Kaka Tim]

Aside from all the legal stuff preventing that from happening why would any member state let alone several want to do this? What would be motivating them to basically go against their own class interests? Again without pressure from the significant working class movement you speak of?
And if we agree that that pressure needs to be there in the first place, then why would this movement have more success putting pressure on the govt whilst we are in the EU? This just doesn’t make sense.

Although I expect at this time of day neither do I

Cos its horsetrading and negotiations and politics - the UK can bloc more right wing policies and support for progressive ones (i.e on workers rights) the opposite of it past behavior. The real bloc on the EU reforming in a progressive manner is the Euro and the ECB with it strict fiscal rules (as greece found to its cost) - happily the Uk is not in the Euro - but may be in a position to support nations (spain, italy, ireland, greece) who would like those rules loosened.
I mean - this all depends on a properly socially democratic government in power - but so does lexit. And Id fear a tory government outside the EU than one inside.
But longer term - who knows? It make sense from a leftist point of view to leave some years down the line, or the EU may splinter - but right now?

 

[gosub]

Cos its horsetrading and negotiations and politics - the UK can bloc more right wing policies and support for progressive ones (i.e on workers rights) the opposite of it past behavior. The real bloc on the EU reforming in a progressive manner is the Euro and the ECB with it strict fiscal rules (as greece found to its cost) - happily the Uk is not in the Euro - but may be in a position to support nations (spain, italy, ireland, greece) who would like those rules loosened.
I mean - this all depends on a properly socially democratic government in power - but so does lexit. And Id fear a tory government outside the EU than one inside.
But longer term - who knows? It make sense from a leftist point of view to leave some years down the line, or the EU may splinter - but right now?

Its now or never realistically. As much as the mainstream referendum WAS a clusterfuck of misinformation, emotionally loaded content, racist deception and deflection, economic scaremongering, downright mistruths and over embellishments and devoid of any pragmatic discussion of all the options available. Yet it was 20 years of swimming against the tide to get one...slink back with tail between legs and we won't get another, nor taken that seriously on reforms it badly needs, it is a very poor democratic interface as it is

 

[Kaka Tim]

damage done. would not start from here etc...

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Its now or never realistically. As much as the mainstream referendum WAS a clusterfuck of misinformation, emotionally loaded content, racist deception and deflection, economic scaremongering, downright mistruths and over embellishments and devoid of any pragmatic discussion of all the options available. Yet it was 20 years of swimming against the tide to get one...slink back with tail between legs and we won't get another, nor taken that seriously on reforms it badly needs, it is a very poor democratic interface as it is

But this is the point, no? It wasn't 20 years of swimming against the tide to get a referendum, or at least it was more than 30 years of the Tory right swimming against the tide and the rise of right-wing populist nationalism that was taking votes from the Tories that got this referendum. That matters. That shapes the brexit that happens and what happens in the years after it. And none of those things is a good thing. The disaster-capitalists are licking their lips. You don't move towards your destination by first moving away from it. All you do then is make the distance to travel even further.

The only argument with any coherence that I can hear is one that wants the whole institutional framework of the EU and the UK to collapse to be followed by probably bloody revolution. Fascism and war are at least as likely in that scenario as socialism and peace, not just here but elsewhere in Europe, in places that have living memory of dictatorship, and also beyond Europe. I will hold my hands up and say that I do not want that. I can see no good coming from it, only a lot of bad. In a world of climate change, population pressure, environmental degradation and all the myriad challenges that face us, we need international institutions. The ones we have need changing. Do they need destroying? Not without a plan for how to replace them, and I don't see that plan. Britain isn't even close to l/w revolution. It is much closer to grubby, insular, Trump-like, Bolsonaro-like r/w nationalism. And so are lots of other parts of Europe.

 

[Humberto]

Everyone is hedging their bets. There is clearly no wide spread consensus. Its ridiculous really.

 

[A380]

Worst constitutional crisis ever.

 

[gosub]

damage done. would not start from here etc...

Bollocks it will always be be just in time means be as ordered and risk managed as possible vs just in time means adapt in real time to what's going on

 

[gosub]

But this is the point, no? It wasn't 20 years of swimming against the tide to get a referendum, or at least it was more than 30 years of the Tory right swimming against the tide and the rise of right-wing populist nationalism that was taking votes from the Tories that got this referendum. That matters. That shapes the brexit that happens and what happens in the years after it. And none of those things is a good thing. The disaster-capitalists are licking their lips. You don't move towards your destination by first moving away from it. All you do then is make the distance to travel even further.

The only argument with any coherence that I can hear is one that wants the whole institutional framework of the EU and the UK to collapse to be followed by probably bloody revolution. Fascism and war are at least as likely in that scenario as socialism and peace, not just here but elsewhere in Europe, in places that have living memory of dictatorship, and also beyond Europe. I will hold my hands up and say that I do not want that. I can see no good coming from it, only a lot of bad. In a world of climate change, population pressure, environmental degradation and all the myriad challenges that face us, we need international institutions. The ones we have need changing. Do they need destroying? Not without a plan for how to replace them, and I don't see that plan. Britain isn't even close to l/w revolution. It is much closer to grubby, insular, Trump-like, Bolsonaro-like r/w nationalism. And so are lots of other parts of Europe.

War, I potentially also see coming, and / or economic collapse, though trying level best to prevent. Real answers come from adapt, rather than crush and shore up. Interesting times.

 

[redsquirrel]

I don't want you to state any particular thing, I want your idea of how something good actually comes of it in a form that's more than a pipe dream. An outline for a novel if you like. What very rough process can you imagine actually happening whereby the left is emboldened & empowered by some outcome of Brexit?

In the last few pages alone SpackleFrog and Smokeandsteam have outlined a number of possibilities of how the UK leaving the EU could provide benefits to workers. If you disagree with those analyses fine, but they are damn site less of "pipe dreams" than the idea of pretending the EU will protect workers.

What you want is for me to provide a map for the working class to follow. But my whole point is that that is the problem, the insistence of so much the left that labour follow its plans rather than recognising that the working class will develop its own pathways is what has led to so many dead ends.

 

[redsquirrel]

hmm - but has any of the more powerful EU nations ever tried to challenge it? the uk and germany have been at the forefront of pushing neo-liberalism within the EU. A labour government might get more traction - also if you have other leftists government in spain, portugal and maybe france things could shift.

When were the governments of France, Spain and Portugal "leftist"? They have all been involved in the neo-liberal attack on the working class - even when the red shirts have been in power.

of course - its all maybes and perhaps - and nothing changing at all is a very strong possibility - but if we are talking pipe dreams - which is more likey? - a socialist UK thriving outside the EU as argued by the lexiters or some sort leftwards reform from within?

Who has argued the bold? I've not seen anyone on U75 make such a silly claim. And as for reformism how can an organisation who's purpose is to facilitate the attacks of capital and governments on workers be reformed? Are you also going to argue for the reformation of the WTO, IMF, WorldBank, etc?

 

[mauvais]

In the last few pages alone SpackleFrog and Smokeandsteam have outlined a number of possibilities of how the UK leaving the EU could provide benefits to workers. If you disagree with those analyses fine, but they are damn site less of "pipe dreams" than the idea of pretending the EU will protect workers.

What you want is for me to provide a map for the working class to follow. But my whole point is that that is the problem, the insistence of so much the left that labour follow its plans rather than recognising that the working class will develop its own pathways is what has led to so many dead ends.

So first of all, I don't disagree that there are opportunities presented by leaving the EU, but the whole question is not whether they exist but whether they'll be availed amongst the disruption.

As for the lack of map, this simultaneously makes sense and says nothing. Why haven't such pathways already materially developed since the economic crash? What timeframe do you think we're looking at? At what point is the hegemony of centre-right parliamentary politics - by far the single biggest influence over conditions - going to be disrupted, within or without? Why is any of this going to actually deliver positives for the left rather than capital or the far right? What if you are just plain wrong and noone fights back for however long?

'The WC will figure it out' is probably the required answer rather than top down prescription but in the current landscape it seems unlikely that this is going to happen any time soon, at least without first a very unpleasant and damaging journey that produces catalysts for change. To this you'll say it means I have no faith in the WC but again I say that it's conditional. And there's no benefit to having an inflated sense of the left's health.

 

[ska invita]

And as for reformism how can an organisation who's purpose is to facilitate the attacks of capital and governments on workers be reformed? Are you also going to argue for the reformation of the WTO, IMF, WorldBank, etc?

I think the possibility of EU reform is there - the EU is ultimately formed by its members, and those are primarily chosen through elections. The unelected layer is currently supported and given legitimacy by a conservative majority in the European parliament, but that could change.

Like many here I thought the Labour party was incapable of and beyond change - turns out that was wrong. There's still a lot that needs to happen there of course, but the wheels are in motion and many of the barriers to reform are falling. Once the wheels of history start turning things can change quickly.

Of course its foolish to put all faith in reformism, but to me grass roots and top down power are not mutually exclusive - we need them both. The problem the left has is a scarcity of people, power, and time, which makes the choice where to concentrate effort more strategic and often ineffective, as its spread too thin.

As to WTO, IMF, WorldBank, these are clearly impossible to "reform". And I guess the difference is democracy. I think Chomksy has formed my opinion on this - he's no starry-eyed reformist, but he makes the case that we fought long and hard for the vote, its an important victory, and it remains a tool which can crack power structures. Its not the only tool, but its far from an insignificant one.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

This wasn’t the #throwback...wednesday post I was looking for, he’d written a more succinct version of this.
But it will do

No. You are deliberately misleading people and the only appropriate response to you is to point that out bluntly.

Treaty changes require unanimity. Everything else only exists within the boundaries set by the Treaties. The Treaties are the central issue. Nothing can be fundamentally changed without changing them. You know this. You are deliberately trying to confuse people about it however.

No, you don't need governments made up of the neoliberal former "social democrats" in all 28 countries to remove neoliberalism from the basic structure of the EU for the simple reason that almost all of the former "social democrats" are themselves devotees of neoliberalism. Not that there is any possibility of 28 governments of former "social democrats" coming into being anyway. What would actually be needed is 28 simultaneous and reasonably long lasting left wing governments of the non-neoliberal left, all agreed on the need to draft and ratify a new Treaty or Treaties. There is no possibility of that happening in the remotely forseeable future, given that it has never happened at any point in the past, even when the former "social democrats" were still social democrats, and even one country can block such change forever.

Therefore no fundamental or significant progressive change to the basis of the EU is possible. And therefore you are lying to people when you suggest otherwise, despite knowing that the EU is, at its core, an agreement between neoliberal governments to march in lockstep towards a neoliberal dystopia, pausing only to brutalise any state that seeks to change direction.

I can respect people who argue that while all of the above is true for various conjunctural reasons voting to leave now, given the balance of political forces in Britain, would make things worse. That's a reasonable position that honest people can put forward and defend without lying to their audience. Telling people that we can reform the EU away from its neoliberal structure is simply a lie however and it should be responded to as a lie.

 

[pocketscience]

As to WTO, IMF, WorldBank, these are clearly impossible to "reform". And I guess the difference is democracy. I think Chomksy has formed my opinion on this - he's no starry-eyed reformist, but he makes the case that we fought long and hard for the vote, its an important victory, and it remains a tool which can crack power structures. Its not the only tool, but its far from an insignificant one.

Yet here we are, now knowing that the ref vote has clearly broken the power structure, with half the people on this thread still opposing the outcome of the democratic vote and wanting it reversed.

 

[ska invita]

Yet here we are, now knowing that the ref vote has clearly broken the power structure, with half the people on this thread still opposing the outcome of the democratic vote and wanting it reversed.

I don't want it reversed.
I'm also sceptical about what exactly has been broken and in who's benefit

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Yet here we are, now knowing that the ref vote has clearly broken the power structure, with half the people on this thread still opposing the outcome of the democratic vote and wanting it reversed.

So we can crack the power structure in a way that doesn’t effect anyone and no one gets punished for. Just WAIT.

 

[ska invita]

This wasn’t the #throwback...wednesday post I was looking for, he’d written a more succinct version of this.
But it will do

That may well be right.... I'll be honest I don't know, I may be imagining the possibilities. Would all 28 countries really have to align simultaneously? A majority socialist block in the bigger countries would swing it i expect. The fact it hasnt happened before isn't an argument though.. Things can change, and quicky... If we didn't believe that then we might as well pack up and go home, to paraphrase Costas L.

 

[pocketscience]

I don't want it reversed.
I'm also sceptical about what exactly has been broken and in who's benefit

That's the point Lapivistas / redsquirrel are making. If the working class can't even see the current opportunity and unite to get a vision together to take the power (that imo is a gift horse right now), then any future democratic decision is also worthless.
Let's face it, going by half the posts here by so-called socialists, the will isn't really there to break away from neoliberalism, is it? Democratically or not.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

That may well be right.... I'll be honest I don't know, I may be imagining the possibilities. Would all 28 countries really have to align simultaneously? A majority socialist block in the bigger countries would swing it i expect. The fact it hasnt happened before isn't an argument though.. Things can change, and quicky... If we didn't believe that then we might as well pack up and go home, to paraphrase Costas L.

Legally, they can’t. One state can block any amendments. All have to agree or the changes can’t go through.