Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[brogdale]

Her line is going to be..."I know you're bored of Brexit...so...if your MP votes for my crock of shite...it will all go away."

As patronising and infantilising as it is desperate; smacks of Gavin "Arab Girls" Barwell.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

May can't do this stuff. The last GE debates demonstrated that she cannot think on her feet or communicate effectively. It's a sign of her desperation that this is even being mooted. For Corbyn the task is simple - expose the severe and irreparable splits within the Tories/ruling class on the issue and set out what exit would and could look like under Labour.

On the latter I expect him to fail. Labour's flirtation with a second vote to deliver Britain back to the crumbling neo-liberal superstate model might offer short term gain but will offer long term defeat of the project.

What would or could a brexit under Labour look like? Scrap ending free movement and go for a Norway-style deal? That's possible. Pointless, given that staying in would be better, but possible. What else? This is one of the big lies, isn't it? This idea that there is such a thing as a Brexit that maintains trade links without a downside. There is no such thing. Never was. So Labour would be proposing something else, something more radical that businesses wouldn't like? Not likely.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

So Labour would be proposing something else, something more radical that businesses wouldn't like? Not likely.

That's precisely what Corbyn should set out. A genuine social democratic programme that would inspire popular confidence and which takes as its starting point that it is possible to plan and work for a better society than the inevitable one a future tied to a collapsing EU or the neo-con no deal model can deliver. It would transform the situation and make a GE more likely. As I have said I do not expect him to do anything of the kind.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Her line is going to be..."I know you're bored of Brexit...so...if your MP votes for my crock of shite...it will all go away."

People are bored of Brexit - because its a row between different sections of the ruling class and political class about which way best serves their interests. No debate about manufacturing, jobs, housing, youth etc etc. Corbyn could change that.

 

[Pickman's model]

People are bored of Brexit - because its a row between different sections of the ruling class and political class about which way best serves their interests. No debate about manufacturing, jobs, housing, youth etc etc. Corbyn could change that.

people are bored of brexit because after the best part of three years hearing the same loads of auld shite bandied about does begin to pall

 

[Ranbay]

I'm not bored yet, can't wait for the next episode!

 

[Wilf]

May can't do this stuff. The last GE debates demonstrated that she cannot think on her feet or communicate effectively. It's a sign of her desperation that this is even being mooted. For Corbyn the task is simple - expose the severe and irreparable splits within the Tories/ruling class on the issue and set out what exit would and could look like under Labour.

On the latter I expect him to fail. Labour's flirtation with a second vote to deliver Britain back to the crumbling neo-liberal superstate model might offer short term gain but will offer long term defeat of the project.

Corbyn's not great at attack dog stuff and he's in a difficult position, as an enti-eu bod who ended up supporting remain and the like - right through to Labour's ambiguities today. Could be a score draw. I think the timing of a debate could be important too. The closer it gets to March, the more May's line about there being no more opportunities to re-negotiate comes to the fore. But yeah, you wouldn't want to hang a deal on Theresa May's ability to engage with the population on a human level..

 

[Ranbay]

It's better than the walking dead these days....

 

[Wilf]

That's precisely what Corbyn should set out. A genuine social democratic programme that would inspire popular confidence and which takes as its starting point that it is possible to plan and work for a better society than the inevitable one a future tied to a collapsing EU or the neo-con no deal model can deliver. It would transform the situation and make a GE more likely. As I have said I do not expect him to do anything of the kind.

Sounds dangerously like a ... lexit. Pity Corbo couldn't have thought about promoting one of those before.

 

[Pickman's model]

Sounds dangerously like a ... lexit. Pity Corbo couldn't have thought about promoting one of those before.

well, being as he's in many ways to the right of auld sir edward heath it's no great surprise he didn't.

 

[Pickman's model]

It's better than the walking dead these days....

it IS the walking dead these days

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Sounds dangerously like a ... lexit. Pity Corbo couldn't have thought about promoting one of those before.

I suspect that he hasn't because he's been advised it would re-ignite the civil war with the Blairites. Far better to sit on the fence and hope the Tories self immolate etc. But given the Blair alternative is to paddle back to the EU vessel as fast as possible and hope nobody notices the massive hole in the ship or the questions raised by the frustration of a popular vote by politicians - and given that they would be the most aggressive opponents to an incoming Labour Government - they will have to be confronted at some point. Why not now?

 

[Poot]

Friends, I can't be bothered to read through much more Brexit shit. When is this better-than-a-poke-in-the-eye-but-not-much agreement going to be run by the MPs?

 

[brogdale]

Fuck the tory MPs...Labour voters/constituents should be furious if their spineless scum of an MP schlep along to Barwell's soiree

 

[Wilf]

I suspect that he hasn't because he's been advised it would re-ignite the civil war with the Blairites. Far better to sit on the fence and hope the Tories self immolate etc. But given the Blair alternative is to paddle back to the EU vessel as fast as possible and hope nobody notices the massive hole in the ship or the questions raised by the frustration of a popular vote by politicians - and given that they would be the most aggressive opponents to an incoming Labour Government - they will have to be confronted at some point. Why not now?

Why not now indeed - or why was it not done after the 2017 gen election? Labour's trouble is that we are in a highly procedural moment. Shite as it is, May has done a deal and has something to batter the wavering brexiteers with in her own ranks. Labour needs to be able to say 'no, let's stop this and do that instead - and the way we'll do it is via this amendment, extension to article 50 etc etc'. But they will end up having to make these big, desperate last minute gambits without having inspired people that a social democratic version of brexit is available. Without that spade work, all Labour are offering is 'we'll vote it down... we want a gen election... if we win we'll see if the EU lets us renegotiate'. Not very inspiring and nothing to persuade the voters that it's worth doing it all again.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

But they will end up having to make these big, desperate last minute gambits without having inspired people that a social democratic version of brexit is available. Without that spade work, all Labour are offering is 'we'll vote it down... we want a gen election... if we win we'll see if the EU lets us renegotiate'. Not very inspiring and nothing to persuade the voters that it's worth doing it all again.

Precisely. And a national TV debate presents a surprising opportunity for Corbyn to move beyond their flaccid efforts to date. It's the last chance he'll get to set out a thought out and planned strategy. The old maxim that 'governments lose elections, oppositions don't win them' possibly does not apply in this situation.

 

[brogdale]

Useless fuckers.

 

[ska invita]

Until relatively recently I believed that there'd be enough 'Labour' votes for May's 'Brexit' to out-weigh any tory rebellion. That was until May's deal was revealed as explicitly not Brexit and voter sentiment changed. Can't see many Lab votes for the dog's diner now...so any double figure rebellion from the swivel-eyed loons will sink her deal.

How is Mays deal explicitly "not Brexit"? It's Labours Norway style deal which has to deal with that attack. Which is why a debate would expose Labour and do May a lot of favours. No one is convinced by fence sitting triangulating platitudes, and as this debate would have to take place before a final vote that remains Labours stance.

If Corbyn had some killer lyrics and a clear plan we'd have heard by now.

The best he can do is the Blind Brexit bit, which while I share those worries of future deregulation has the counterargument that those aspects are yet to be decided.

 

[danny la rouge]

I suspect that he hasn't because he's been advised it would re-ignite the civil war with the Blairites. Far better to sit on the fence and hope the Tories self immolate etc. But given the Blair alternative is to paddle back to the EU vessel as fast as possible and hope nobody notices the massive hole in the ship or the questions raised by the frustration of a popular vote by politicians - and given that they would be the most aggressive opponents to an incoming Labour Government - they will have to be confronted at some point. Why not now?

Indeed. In the Tory Party the conflict is the accommodation between neoconservativism and neoliberalism (not necessarily between neocons and neolibs), and similarly in the Labour Party (and, incidentally, the wider labour movement) they still have to work out their relationship with neoliberalism. Which is why there hasn’t been any serious analysis of the options (all of which have the potential to be bad). Had the broad labour movement including the Labour Party been able to start earlier building a consensus round an exit strategy that could see a programme of public ownership and so on, then we’d be in a different position. There was no need to allow May to paint a portrait of there being two options only - a neoliberal virtual BINO, or a neocon no deal exit. It is even conceivable that Corbyn (well, OK, not Corbyn personally, but the broad left of centre) could have achieved leaverage for a “hard lexit”, if you want to use those terms. But unions and the PLP have not been able to consciously uncouple from neoliberalism.

 

[Pickman's model]

Which is why a debate would expose Labour and do May a lot of favours.

it could. it could also expose the lies which have been told in the press repeatedly in the past few days that the negotiations have lasted variously since the referendum or since the article 50 declaration, whereas it is clear that substantive negotiations have only been going on since the summer - david davis's view of what was going on was so different from theresa may's that he left the government. the clock has been run down. and it's been run down in such a way as to secure theresa may's position at the moment - no one else wants the job.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Indeed. In the Tory Party the conflict is the accommodation between neoconservativism and neoliberalism (not necessarily between neocons and neolibs), and similarly in the Labour Party (and, incidentally, the wider labour movement) they still have to work out their relationship with neoliberalism. Which is why there hasn’t been any serious analysis of the options (all of which have the potential to be bad). Had the broad labour movement including the Labour Party been able to start earlier building a consensus round an exit strategy that could see a programme of public ownership and so on, then we’d be in a different position. There was no need to allow May to paint a portrait of there being two options only - a neoliberal virtual BINO, or a neocon no deal exit. It is even conceivable that Corbyn (well, OK, not Corbyn personally, but the broad left of centre) could have achieved leaverage for a “hard lexit”, if you want to use those terms. But unions and the PLP have not been able to consciously uncouple from neoliberalism.

I think that's exactly it. Labourism, collectively, is as incapable of imagining a world without neo-liberalism as the neo-cons and liberals. There are many reasons for this some more understandable and forgivable than others.

Whilst Corbyn and his gang have opted for critiquing the positions of the two squabbling camps (and avoiding any attempt to own or command the agenda), the unions seem to have totally intellectually collapsed into remain - and not even the 'remain to reform' position of Varoufakis etc - as the best option their members can hope for. The lack of ambition, imagination and 'leadership' is fatal.

 

[danny la rouge]

I think that's exactly it. Labourism collectively is as incapable of imagining a world without neo-liberalism as the neo-cons and liberals. There are many reasons for this some more understandable and forgivable than others.

Whilst Corbyn and his gang have opted for critiquing the positions of the two squabbling camps, the unions seem to have totally intellectually collapsed into remain - and not even the 'remain to reform' position of Varoufakis etc - as the best option their members can hope for. The lack of ambition, imagination and 'leadership' is fatal.

Yup.

 

[Wilf]

Corbyn was the unexpected leader, so much so that he hadn't done any planning, didn't have a strategy etc. But alongside that - and more importantly - Labour seems to have become only nominally social democratic. As noted ^ it's largely a label to indicate not being Blairite, something without roots or a real self confidence. I always come back to the limited attempts to embed and extend the party into working class communities. It leaves labour with a free floating brexity-remainy opportunism. Not much ballast and very few mechanisms to mobilise the working class behind this or much else. Labour don't know if they are appealing to working class voters, the under 40s or remoany guardianistas. The Tories have turned up the Fuck Up dial to 11, but still Labour have only just nosed into the lead. quite telling.

edit: actually, scratch that, Tories with a 3% lead in the very latest (yougov)

 

[SpackleFrog]

What would or could a brexit under Labour look like? Scrap ending free movement and go for a Norway-style deal? That's possible. Pointless, given that staying in would be better, but possible. What else? This is one of the big lies, isn't it? This idea that there is such a thing as a Brexit that maintains trade links without a downside. There is no such thing. Never was. So Labour would be proposing something else, something more radical that businesses wouldn't like? Not likely.

They could offer tariff free trade on goods and services and free movement for EU migrants. That would change the debate a bit wouldn't it?

 

[AnandLeo]

Brexit deal is negotiated and signed between the UK government and the EU. The EU asserts that’s the best deal, and there will be nothing to negotiate outside the done deal. Theresa may is moving forward optimistically assuming that is the case. However, a large number of members of the parliament consisting of all parties including the conservatives are rebelling to reject the Brexit deal in the parliament. This is the calm before the storm; the ship is heading for the rocks. Theresa May’s government or Labour alone cannot solve this crisis as I pointed earlier.

 

[tommers]

Former Brexit Secretary David Davis asks why the UK can't make the delivery of the second half of the £39bn exit payment conditional on getting a trade deal from the EU.

Theresa May says that "as the right honourable gentleman knows" the exit payment is based on "legal obligations" and that there is a "timetable" that must be adhered to.

David Davis was Brexit secretary for most of the Brexit negotiation process.

Ooof.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Brexit deal is negotiated and signed between the UK government and the EU. The EU asserts that’s the best deal, and there will be nothing to negotiate outside the done deal. Theresa may is moving forward optimistically assuming that is the case. However, a large number of members of the parliament consisting of all parties including the conservatives are rebelling to reject the Brexit deal in the parliament. This is the calm before the storm; the ship is heading for the rocks. Theresa May’s government or Labour alone cannot solve this crisis as I pointed earlier.

You want a Government of National Unity then?

 

[Wilf]

Corbyn has just hinted that Labour would support a 'softer brexit':
Jeremy Corbyn tells May softer Brexit could win Commons support - Politics live

I'm (genuinely) unsure what his game is with that.

 

[ska invita]

Had the broad labour movement including the Labour Party been able to start earlier building a consensus round an exit strategy that could see a programme of public ownership and so on, then we’d be in a different position. There was no need to allow May to paint a portrait of there being two options only - a neoliberal virtual BINO, or a neocon no deal exit. It is even conceivable that Corbyn (well, OK, not Corbyn personally, but the broad left of centre) could have achieved leaverage for a “hard lexit”, if you want to use those terms. But unions and the PLP have not been able to consciously uncouple from neoliberalism.

How long do you think it wouldve taken to build a consensus? This is as divisive an issue as there can be. From what I can tell there was no consensus on protectionism in the labour movement in the 70s either <a good parallel to these debates. Then you look at the make up of the current Labour party and I cant imagine a time ever when youd get anything resembling a consensus - maybe you could get it to 50/50, and that would be some achievement! It was never going to happen in reality and I doubt it would ever happen even in this alternate reality with plenty of lead time.

As to Labour theoretically leveraging a Hard Lexit, they could only ever leverage a no deal WTO Brexit, but they cant leverage a Lexit. This was only ever a right wing led Brexit. Maybe they might win a future election and be able to shape whatever it is they've been left with, but that's a very different thing from a "hard lexit".

Corbyn has just hinted that Labour would support a 'softer brexit':
Jeremy Corbyn tells May softer Brexit could win Commons support - Politics live

I'm (genuinely) unsure what his game is with that.

the labour party consensus is around Norway

 

[ska invita]

it could. it could also expose the lies which have been told in the press repeatedly in the past few days that the negotiations have lasted variously since the referendum or since the article 50 declaration, whereas it is clear that substantive negotiations have only been going on since the summer - david davis's view of what was going on was so different from theresa may's that he left the government. the clock has been run down. and it's been run down in such a way as to secure theresa may's position at the moment - no one else wants the job.

i think the clock got run down because it took them that long to realise that the official policy of Cake And Eat It wasn't going to happen. Its been one long reality check for those leading Brexit, with fantasy after fantasy of how international trade deals work/practicalities of ports etc etc having to be binned.

Davis had to leave because he couldn't achieve the many imagined pipe dreams and Chequers was a late in the day reset on collective understanding, once everyone had finally got a bit more up to speed on the reality of the task.