danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Yes.
Is Brexit actually going to happen?
- Thread starter Kaka Tim
- Start date
I could see Corbyn going along with such a deal in concert with others but I very much doubt whether he would personally favour it.His mantra in so far as he has one seems to be about understanding the reasons why people voted for Brexit.On the whole those people will,i think,at best,be a bit meh about this deal.
Winot
I wholeheartedley agree with your viewpoint
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
There’s all sorts of things that could have been achieved. The question is by whom and in the interests of whom?
But if you think the deal on offer now is the only deal that could ever have been on offer, that’s not true. It’s just the only deal that there was the will for from the neoliberal elite. As things stand now, as I’ve already said, I suspect a version of this deal will limp through, with minor changes sold as important concessions.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
This is just describing the same thing in two different ways.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
No it isn’t.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
HoratioCuthbert
Deep seated inconsequence
Is this based on economic growth aye?
The Fornicator
Active Member
Four months, that's all now - deal or no deal.
I'm calling it: she loses the first vote, she survives a confidence vote (probably), and she wins the second Brexit vote. You heard it here first.
I'm calling it: she loses the first vote, she survives a confidence vote (probably), and she wins the second Brexit vote. You heard it here first.
The Fornicator
Active Member
There will. Two should be enough, assuming the Labour Brexiteers only need one range-finder.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Deal.
There is an extant deal agreed between the UK executive and the EU. The question is whether the power of the executive to sign off on that deal can gain authority by being legitimised by Parliament.
You seem to be saying that between 2 Parliamentary attempts to legitimise the deal (enough) MPs will change their minds to support May.
What do you think would change their minds?
Wookey
Muppet is not a slur
I've heard it suggested that the drop in the pound immediately following a Parliamentary no vote would be what drives a successful second vote through.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
The pound won't drop to that extent based on a no vote, because it will be a surprise to no-one.
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Wookey
Muppet is not a slur
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
Fantasy Island stuff I’m afraid.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yes, I've also heard May Deal supporters say that would happen...but...in truth I can't see what would spook 'the markets' about a parliamentary rejection of the deal. For starters it's been called already and, just as importantly, it would signal the end of Brexit. Even May has, of late, conceded that a rejection could result in no Brexit and most MPs say they'd use their power to prevent a 'no deal' exit.
I reckon quite a few stocks would go up tbh.
The Fornicator
Active Member
I do think Labour Brexiteers will want to see if the first Brexit (loss) vote causes May to quit (can't see it). With the second vote they will know how many of them need to defy the leadership - it'll be an organised revolt with a clear total in mind (assuming the Labour leadership doesn't change course in between votes).
Raheem
Well-Known Member
But there's not enough of them.
The Fornicator
Active Member
Lets see when push comes to shove. We're still waiting for the 48 letters, some of whom lied to the public about 'sending in'.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
It's an idea that's based on what happened in America at the start of the banking crisis. The bailout was rejected, the markets screamed blue murder, then the legislation was passed. But that was a case of genuine panic. May's problem is that everyone knows that it's no catastrophe if her deal sinks. If all else fails, there will be an art 50 extension, because it would be insane not to ask for one.I tend to agree, but..."markets"...
The Fornicator
Active Member
It's the TARP argument. Trouble is it's already discounted into the system, at least as much as it will be. Markets have hedged.
Wookey
Muppet is not a slur
Yep, that was the context I heard it in, thanks for the explication! Makes sense.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
I dont buy the "deal will go through 2nd time round argument at all"
When mays deal gets rejected there is nothing she can do than minor minor tweaks before sending it back again. The EU will offer her next to nothing on that. I cant see that many mps are going to be suddenly converted to the view that its now ok.
The push for a 2nd ref will become much stronger once mays deal fails - remainer mps in all parties will be arguing for that as a way out of the impasse. No way will they vote the deal through 2nd time when cancelling brexit is in play.
the brexiteers are not going to change their minds.
Public opinion is strongly against the deal - and that getting more pronounced the more the details are understood.
Because nobody believes the deal is anything other than a shitty humiliation - including theresa may.
When mays deal gets rejected there is nothing she can do than minor minor tweaks before sending it back again. The EU will offer her next to nothing on that. I cant see that many mps are going to be suddenly converted to the view that its now ok.
The push for a 2nd ref will become much stronger once mays deal fails - remainer mps in all parties will be arguing for that as a way out of the impasse. No way will they vote the deal through 2nd time when cancelling brexit is in play.
the brexiteers are not going to change their minds.
Public opinion is strongly against the deal - and that getting more pronounced the more the details are understood.
Because nobody believes the deal is anything other than a shitty humiliation - including theresa may.
not-bono-ever
meh
both alistair campbell and tim timmy wetherspoon hate it and want the deal to fail so i feel obliged to support it
The Fornicator
Active Member
Tell us all about your deal the EU is keen to accept instead.
Humberto
Relax
Its an impasse. Push for leave and we leave the zone of the status quo. In other words, leaving and becoming independent instantly you are talking market effects, a closing ranks of the political establishment and probably the royal family becoming more prominent and given more attention.
In the the medium term, the whole world is fucked to some extent or other so it will become more irrelevant further down the line as increasing parts of the globe are left out in the cold to manage as best they can.
The ONLY step that matters is acting together and raising our voices.
In the the medium term, the whole world is fucked to some extent or other so it will become more irrelevant further down the line as increasing parts of the globe are left out in the cold to manage as best they can.
The ONLY step that matters is acting together and raising our voices.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
The EU is very keen to accept anything that represents a closer trading relationship compared to May's deal.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
my deal?
the point is that any deal with the EU was going always going to be about degrees of shitness.
I dont see parliament ever voting for a deal which so obviously weakens the UK in terms of influence, economy and security - the mandate of the referendum result was always going to be secondary to that.
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