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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


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no it makes no moral case whatsoever

I can get the lexit idealogic position.

Greece would be in a better place if they’d not joined the Euro. It fucked them ten times the way they were already fucking themselves.

A Greek colleague - and I realise this is just anecdotal evidence - laughs about the whole EU. “We don’t pay any tax.” He says it with a chuckle that betrays dismay. He told another story of Greek politicians paying travel money, punting people across Europe, to shore up local votes. One way or another, Greece needs some healing,

In the meantime, when the UK leaves, Greece gets - just a bit - poorer.

Richer nations pay in, poorer nations get something back.

Greece won’t be fixed by this shit show. Not one bit.
 
Richer nations pay in, poorer nations get something back.
This is one of the things that annoyed me most about right leave campaigners - their bleating about the 8 billion a year net input. Some of that went towards running the bureaucracy, for sure (and much of that spend will come back to the UK when it has to run all its own affairs), but the rest is money that went to help the more deprived regions. When Johnson talked of this money going 'god knows where', he was being deliberately disingenuous. And the UK isn't top of the list of net inputters per capita - some other countries pay even more.
 
Probable new elections in Gemany which might kick out Merkel. UK about to double the offer possibly with the brexiteers onboard. Junckers now saying there could be a comprehensive free trade deal coming together. So looking a bit better? Don’t think it will help the Tories medium term though because neolibralism has run it’s course imo. Onwards to a Labour victory at next GE. :thumbs:
 
The noose tightens further:

Barnier said: “The UK has chosen to leave the EU. Does it want to stay close to the European model or does it want to gradually move away from it? The UK’s reply to this question will be important and even decisive because it will shape the discussion on our future partnership and shape also the conditions for ratification of that partnership in many national parliaments and obviously in the European parliament. I do not say this to create problems but to avoid problems.”

Barnier says EU will not compromise standards in future UK trade deal
 
I was actually thinking about this over the weekend ^^^^

have to get my thoughts compiled and work through them - but the impact of Cheap EU labour, a price war ( and the decimation of the supermarkets blue chip rating + profits ), the demands by the UK Supermarket groups for the suppliers to cu their costs even more and the inflation escalator stuff in the background - it will mean food price inflation could sky rocket . We are already seeing the creeping up of shelf prices/ reduction in packet size.

this (obviously) is going to fuck over those at the bottom the most- its is not likely we will introduce some lovely COLA to cover these movements
 
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I was actually thinking about this over the weekend ^^^^

have to get my thoughts compiled and work through them - but the impact of Cheap EU labour, a price war ( and the decimation of the supermarkets blue chip rating + profits ), the demands by the UK Supermarket groups for the suppliers to cu their costs even more and the inflation escalator stuff in the background - it will mean food price inflation could sky rocket . We are already seeing the creeping up of shelf prices/ reduction in packet size.

this (obviously) is going to fuck over those at the bottom the most- its is not likely we will introduce some lovely COLA to cover these movements
I don't doubt what you say, it's the way the likes of the guardian spit it out that irks me. Shock tactics for there seething readers.
 
A good day overall for Remainite optimists, with the stewards’ enquiry into Vote Leave’s funny money reopening, and the apology in the Lords over a50 revocability.
 
A good day overall for Remainite optimists, with the stewards’ enquiry into Vote Leave’s funny money reopening, and the apology in the Lords over a50 revocability.

Didn’t end so well, with Labour whipping its MPs to withdraw from the SM.
 
Didn’t end so well, with Labour whipping its MPs to withdraw from the SM.

Didn't know that was happening. Not a surprise, I suppose. Was that SM pre- or post-transition? I can't see any references to it, seem to be slow with google suddenly.
 
Impressed by the new negotiating stance being reported by the BBC. Seems to be something like:

EU: You must give us more money, and then we can move on to trade talks.
UK: No chance. Do you think we were fucking born yesterday? Tell you what, OK, we will give you more money, but only on one condition. You have to be willing to move on to trade talks.
EU: Well, we must be crazy but, since it's you, OK, it's a deal.
Daily Mail: Victory for May!​
 
Dear oh dear Larry. You are confusing corrupt cult of personality dictatorships with social democracies.

The Tories are finished. Brexit or no brexit they are out at next GE. They have run their course. If they had not then why would have the provinces voted brexit to tell the London centric neolib ultra captilists to go to fuck? As far as most folk are concerned the city money men can fuck off to Paris or wherever.

Just tell us Larry what the Tories have got to offer? It’s time for something different.
 
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I have been watching Question Time closely in recent weeks (dont bother normally) and been very unimpressed with Labour, generally.

I still dont think there's any guarantee of Labour sweeping to power in the next election, however much May keeps fucking it up. They need a bit more spine in standing up to the EU and commitment in carving something better out of the ruins of Brexit.

Cos expensive tomatoes or no expensive tomatoes, it's all at stake here for the 'left'.
 
Labour can do one of 2 things. They can oppose the Tories at every move on brexit to the extent they could be accused of trying to stop brexit or they can help the Tories dig their own grave to be more certain of a Labour victory at next GE. I would think the arrogance of the EU is now making people more pro brexit & Labour need to go with that. I think the Tories are heading for a massive fight among themselves over increasing payments so Labour should do nothing to make things easier for the Tories by appearing to be anti brexit.
 
The offer is being upped to £40bill on condition of trade talks starting. This will cause uproar. If the EU rejects that then probably it is clear they are trying to force another referendum. That the government is now cracking & prepared to offer much more could be used by remainers to reinforce their argument that leave voters were duped & it was not made clear what the size of the leaving bill might be.

Rabid brexiteers will say we should leave with no deal. Remainers will argue with the sums demanded it’s not worth leaving. Also it makes the EU look like the bullying anti democratic cunts they are. Labour need to be ready to pick up the pieces whatever happens because I doubt voters will forgive the Tories for this.
 
If the EU rejects that then probably it is clear they are trying to force another referendum.

I don't think so. The EU is not particularly looking for a second referendum, not least because it might just confirm the first one. Their whole negotiating stance is that they are an immovable rock and the UK is just going to have to deal with that. So, they won't budge. From their perspective, this is about a debt, not a purchase, so haggling doesn't come into it.

It should be recognised also that the UK is not about to offer 40B, just like it didn't previously offer 20B. The figures are Downing Street spin. I think what they are trying to achieve is agreeing to pay the EU's bill in full while telling the British public that they are only agreeing to pay part of it. The trouble is that this won't be acceptable for the EU, because it just stores up problems for a later date.
 
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The offer is being upped to £40bill on condition of trade talks starting. This will cause uproar. If the EU rejects that then probably it is clear they are trying to force another referendum. That the government is now cracking & prepared to offer much more could be used by remainers to reinforce their argument that leave voters were duped & it was not made clear what the size of the leaving bill might be..

I don't think a large bill will endear the EU to anybody..not that that will stop the remainers who are starting to remind me of the toaster in Red Dwarf
 
the Irish have already they don't give a toss how much the UK agrees to pay, if there's no border agreement in writing for NI then there can be no other talks
 
Greece won’t be fixed by this shit show. Not one bit.
as its you I did have a think about that and honestly I was confused by it to start with. Its not my position that conditions in greece will improve because we voted out. Thats not really what the moral argument is about (and it is simply a part of a wider position anyway). I've highlighted greece, as have many because a greece fronted by a left wing government asked for terms- terms to end austerity. Breathing space, its a nation state for gods sake. They are good for the money eventually if you take your foot of the damn neck. And so they were told 'jog on'. From one of the highest election turnouts for greece to one of the very lowest. In between that voting period szyria, every greek who voted for the people who said 'we can ease this if we get into power, we can negotiate' were brought to heel by the EU institutions. that was my straw breaking the camels back. That was my Iraq war means labour can go swivel. Do you see what I am saying? There are hosts and host of other- more central imo - arguments against the EU and continued membership of for ALL member states. But we've done them ad nauseum

you cast it as blind ideological throw of the dice with assuming its simply greece at issue here
 
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as its you I did have a think about that and honestly I was confused by it to start with. Its not my position that conditions in greece will improve because we voted out. Thats not really what the moral argument is about (and it is simply a part of a wider position anyway). I've highlighted greece, as have many because a greece fronted by a left wing government asked for terms- terms to end austerity. Breathing space, its a nation state for gods sake. They are good for the money eventually if you take your foot of the damn neck. And so they were told 'jog on'. From one of the highest election turnouts for greece to one of the very lowest. In between that voting period szyria, every greek who voted for the people who said 'we can ease this if we get into power, we can negotiate' were brought to heel by the EU institutions. that was my straw breaking the camels back. That was my Iraq war means labour can go swivel. Do you see what I am saying? There are hosts and host of other- more central imo - arguments against the EU and continued membership of for ALL member states. But we've done them ad nauseum

you cast it as blind ideological throw of the dice with assuming its simply greece at issue here

The difficulty I have with this is that is that I have never heard it argued (perhaps it can be argued, but I have never heard it) that the EU had no choices in the Greece crisis. It was said at the time, and it is still said, that a different, more generous settlement for Greece was always possible and (particularly with hindsight) could have been more successful. Not simply as a matter of abstract theory, but in the very actual sense that there were realisable proposals and some degree of political will in the various European capitals that could have brought them to fruition. The problem was the overbearing power of German public opinion and the willingness of the German government to frustrate anything that didn't serve it politically.

If it is true that things could have been different if only..., then surely what we are looking at is a failure rather than a systemic incapacity that is doomed to play out time and time again (even though I would not deny that the EU has systemic problems).
 
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