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Is Brexit actually going to happen?

Will we have a brexit?


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I'm not sure there's a particularly large layer who see that as a coherent strategy. I certainly hope there isn't.
I think that's a very coherent strategy. It's already been laid out more or less how it would work: defeat this deal, get rid of May, get an general election, win the general election, get rid of brexit, with a second ref or something.

There is a certain incoherence to many of the whines from keen brexit types over holding a second referendum. If you're after some kind of 'hard' brexit, surely you should be all for it. A clear plan for what brexit will mean is presented with the promise to implement it or something similar with a second leave vote, tying the country to your vision if you win. So the only reason they can have for not wanting a second referendum must be because they think they would lose it. Why this new referendum would somehow be an affront to democracy, while the 2016 one was more or less the last word on democracy, I've yet to hear explained.
 
it's all a bit cheese and beans to me, you get rid of one then you get rid of the other. or maybe the tories get rid of brexit and then we get rid of the tories. or we drown them all in fudge

I'm not sure I agree - I think it's definitely possible to get rid of Brexit and be stuck with the Tories and I am pretty sure the likes of Francis O'Grady would be fine with that.


I think that's a very coherent strategy. It's already been laid out more or less how it would work: defeat this deal, get rid of May, get an general election, win the general election, get rid of brexit, with a second ref or something.

There is a certain incoherence to many of the whines from keen brexit types over holding a second referendum. If you're after some kind of 'hard' brexit, surely you should be all for it. A clear plan for what brexit will mean is presented with the promise to implement it or something similar with a second leave vote, tying the country to your vision if you win. So the only reason they can have for not wanting a second referendum must be because they think they would lose it. Why this new referendum would somehow be an affront to democracy, while the 2016 one was more or less the last word on democracy, I've yet to hear explained.

What you've outlined there though is getting rid of the Tories and then stopping Brexit afterwards. I don't have a problem with that neccessarily although I think there are huge risks if Corbyn goes into a GE calling for 2nd Ref/Remain.

What some people are saying in the unions, implicitly and explicitly, is let's have a referendum so we can stop Brexit (by no means a certainty) and then after that who cares.

I absolutely think it's possible, if the Brexit crisis is taken off the table, particularly through a 2nd ref, that the Tories could replace May, patch up their differences for now and carry on making our lives miserable without a GE. Perhaps not easy but possible. The only thing that would make a GE certain is mobilising on the streets to demand one and it's the unions that should be organising that mobilisation. Not that it has to be them - but it should be - Corbyn and the Labour Left could also call a demo for a GE.
 
i think we know more of what is going on than theresa may as she seems to think she can get this pile of shite through parliament

I think she thinks she can Corbyn the hell out of this, having realized that her opponents are the same sort of useless over-entitled shower as his opponents are.

In fact, I think the moment she realises that she can threaten them with this or no Brexit at all (rather than this or no deal at all) is the moment she will put them back in their box completely.
 
I really cant see where the cabinet brexit gang are going to go with this "lets renegotiate the deal" stuff. May cant and wont. The EU have said "no fucking way".
So that leaves them where?
Maybe its just to give them a bit more political cover for when they resign (next week?) - surely taking May down with them.
 
I really cant see where the cabinet brexit gang are going to go with this "lets renegotiate the deal" stuff. May cant and wont. The EU have said "no fucking way".
So that leaves them where?
Maybe its just to give them a bit more political cover for when they resign (next week?) - surely taking May down with them.
I think we are certainly in the moment where political psychology and the bonkers endpoints of their respective positions and careers have temporarily displaced political economy in terms of what's driving this. Their trouble is that a whole world of political economy awaits the 'victors' who finally emerge.
 
There has been a fair bit of discussion here about referendums.
Whether there is a second or third referendum, the nature of what is democratic, and interestingly the notion of one result overturning a previous result.
The issue is not so cut and dried that the concept of another referendum can be dismissed with a wave of the hand or a soundbite.
I did a bit of research and I have come up with 13 that have taken place somewhere in the United Kingdom. The Scottish and Welsh votes of 1997 reversed the votes of 1979. The national vote of 2016 arguably reversed the national vote of 1975.
Of course wording and other factors make each referendum hard to directly compare. So does margins of victory, and information in the hands of the voters.
Whether this kind of carry on is democratic or not I would suggest is up for debate and as I said not cut and dried.
The two that seem to be the most conflicting are the ones in Northern Ireland in 1998 and the UK in 2016.

Northern Ireland sovereignty referendum, 1973
United Kingdom European Communities membership referendum, 1975
Scottish devolution referendum, 1979
Welsh devolution referendum, 1979
Scottish devolution referendum, 1997
Welsh devolution referendum, 1997
Northern Ireland Belfast Agreement referendum, 1998
Greater London Authority referendum, 1998
North East England devolution referendum, 2004
United Kingdom Alternative Vote referendum, 2011
Welsh devolution referendum, 2011
Scottish Independence referendum, 2014
United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016
 
This gang of 5 nonsense might at least feature in seeing whether there really are enough letters for a vonc. Part of it will be about how tory mps come back from having met their associations this weekend, but then May or the EU saying there will be no more renegotiations. At that point it's put up or shut up for all concerned. My pure guess is she will get the deal through but on the '21 days later' re-vote.
 
This gang of 5 nonsense might at least feature in seeing whether there really are enough letters for a vonc. Part of it will be about how tory mps come back from having met their associations this weekend, but then May or the EU saying there will be no more renegotiations. At that point it's put up or shut up for all concerned. My pure guess is she will get the deal through but on the '21 days later' re-vote.
If only what happened to the Chinese gang of four would happen to these trite tories
 
Leadsom's delusional.

I really cant see where the cabinet brexit gang are going to go with this "lets renegotiate the deal" stuff. May cant and wont. The EU have said "no fucking way".
So that leaves them where?
Maybe its just to give them a bit more political cover for when they resign (next week?) - surely taking May down with them.

Hardly delusional. If you take the view that they really want no deal, then their best bet is to run down the clock as they'll never get no deal through Parliament. Obviously this assumes there's a clock to run down but they may believe that.

On the other hand if you take the view that they're preserving themselves and their careers then what they're doing is twofold; distancing themselves from an awful deal and ensuring their portrayal as loyal to May and the Party.

If they really think they can negotiate a better deal based on the stiffness of their stiff upper lips or whatever then yeah they are delusional!
 
Hardly delusional. If you take the view that they really want no deal, then their best bet is to run down the clock as they'll never get no deal through Parliament. Obviously this assumes there's a clock to run down but they may believe that.

On the other hand if you take the view that they're preserving themselves and their careers then what they're doing is twofold; distancing themselves from an awful deal and ensuring their portrayal as loyal to May and the Party.

If they really think they can negotiate a better deal based on the stiffness of their stiff upper lips or whatever then yeah they are delusional!
No, I just meant that Leadsom's delusional, generally. Space cadet. Away with the fairies. On a different planet. Several chips short of a Happy Meal. Etc.
 
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