Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[TopCat]

And here we have the great charade - the public reasons given by labour mps for voting with the deal (national interest above party interest, honouring the referendum, averting the disaster of no deal, duty) will of course be nothing at all to do with the real reasons.

It's going be nauseating. A bizarre succession of organisations and individuals will be queuing up to demand the Labour Party change direction.

 

[TopCat]

Creator of the Conservative Home website, and staunchly pro-brexit. Revealing that a key tory strategist fears brexit won't happen if this deal is voted down.

What's the betting Prince Charles and the Archbishop of Canterbury join the list over Christmas?

 

[Sasaferrato]

This deal or crash out is a false choice, though. Just because May says this is so doesn't make it so.

Perhaps. I say perhaps, because like us all, I don't have a crystal ball. What a mess.

I really don't see this getting through parliament (and don't want it to), but then what?

 

[TopCat]

Bookies showing 1/3 on May winning her confidence vote.

 

[TopCat]

21/10 against.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Bookies showing 1/3 on May winning her confidence vote.

Ouchie.

And do the morons of the Conservative Party really think that anyone else can do better?

 

[Winot]

The reason I described the ERG lot as 'headbangers' is precisely because they are very unlikely to vote for this deal even if the alternative is remain. They'd choose heroic failure over partial success. I think this deal's only hope of being passed through parliament is getting enough labour defectors to vote for it. And here we have the great charade - the public reasons given by labour mps for voting with the deal (national interest above party interest, honouring the referendum, averting the disaster of no deal, duty) will of course be nothing at all to do with the real reasons.

Yeah John Redwood on Any Questions was absolutely explicit that what he wants - and what he has always wanted - is no deal.

I’m not sure any more that May will resign if/when she loses the parliamentary vote. It might tip the balance in favour of a vonc, but even then she might win. And under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, a GE is by no means certain as an outcome.

 

[TopCat]

Ouchie.

And do the morons of the Conservative Party really think that anyone else can do better?

A VONC win for May could give her breathing space. Until the parliament vote on Dec 14th that is.

 

[TopCat]

Yeah John Redwood on Any Questions was absolutely explicit that what he wants - and what he has always wanted - is no deal.

I’m not sure any more that May will resign if/when she loses the parliamentary vote. It might tip the balance in favour of a vonc, but even then she might win. And under the Fixed Term Parliament Act, a GE is by no means certain as an outcome.

But to try and stay, after defeat in Parliament would be farcical. She would then be left with no power, heading for the exit day rocks.

 

[TopCat]

But to try and stay, after defeat in Parliament would be farcical. She would then be left with no power, heading for the exit day rocks.

May doing this would likely provoke civil disorder from remainers.

 

[Winot]

But to try and stay, after defeat in Parliament would be farcical. She would then be left with no power, heading for the exit day rocks.

Agreed, which is why I've assumed up to now she’d do the reasonable thing and go. But she seems determined to stay until removed.

 

[Winot]

May doing this would likely provoke civil disorder from remainers.

Nah. Spluttering into our Guardians maybe.

I could totally see her saying “OK we lost - I’ll go back to Brussels and try to get something better”.

 

[TopCat]

Im hugely enjoying this.

 

[TopCat]

Nah. Spluttering into our Guardians maybe.

I could totally see her saying “OK we lost - I’ll go back to Brussels and try to get something better”.

What could that better be? I just cant see it.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Agreed, which is why I've assumed up to now she’d do the reasonable thing and go. But she seems determined to stay until removed.

Losing this vote will be a removal, effectively. She's all but said so herself - it's this deal or nothing. She'll go on the day of the vote if she loses it. I'm not entirely convinced she will lose it, although she may not be prime minister by the time there is a vote, and if that's the case, who would be presenting this deal as 'theirs' given how many people have run away from it? Could they even present this deal to parliament with May gone? They're in a pickle alright.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

What could that better be? I just cant see it.

Not only that, but May has said explicitly that this is it. This is the best deal.

 

[paolo]

Nah. Spluttering into our Guardians maybe.

I could totally see her saying “OK we lost - I’ll go back to Brussels and try to get something better”.

My guess is that she knows that’s a non starter with the EU.

Then again, she does manage to do delusional repeatedly.

 

[TopCat]

Not only that, but May has said explicitly that this is it. This is the best deal.

They have all climbed up a tree and mummy can't hear their cries.

 

[paolo]

It's going be nauseating. A bizarre succession of organisations and individuals will be queuing up to demand the Labour Party change direction.

On Brexit, they’ll need to have a direction first, before that queue can form.

 

[TopCat]

I'll do a Guardian watch for people demanding Corbyn goes in A Tory direction.

 

[Winot]

What could that better be? I just cant see it.

You are right. There isn’t a better deal, and she knows it. But you’re missing my point - which is that she is showing signs of such obstinacy and delusion as to stay on until pushed even if rationally she should go.

I don’t think she’s going to resign. She might be deposed, but that could have happened at any point since the GE, and no one’s had the balls/numbers.

 

[TopCat]

It's going to be weird. It was surreal for me during the referendum watching self proclaimed revolutionaries urging support for the EU.
Now we will see and hear urging to vote Tory in Parliament to support the EU.
Vote Tory...

 

[Pickman's model]

It's going to be weird. It was surreal for me during the referendum watching self proclaimed revolutionaries urging support for the EU.
Now we will see and hear urging to vote Tory in Parliament to support the EU.
Vote Tory...

without illusions

 

[Winot]

I don’t think she’s going to resign. She might be deposed, but that could have happened at any point since the GE, and no one’s had the balls/numbers.

Also, she’s arguably in a stronger position politically now than a week ago. She’s pulled off a deal which a lot of business are prepared to support (avoiding no deal) and Rees-Mogg has shot his bolt and might have missed.

 

[TopCat]

without illusions

Oh mate...

 

[paolo]

I'll do a Guardian watch for people demanding Corbyn goes in A Tory direction.

On Brexit, the Tories will need to have a direction first.

 

[Pickman's model]

On Brexit, the Tories will need to have a direction first.

one direction

 

[paolo]

It's going to be weird. It was surreal for me during the referendum watching self proclaimed revolutionaries urging support for the EU.
Now we will see and hear urging to vote Tory in Parliament to support the EU.
Vote Tory...

I don’t follow. Which vote do you mean, a GE?

 

[TopCat]

I don’t follow. Which vote do you mean, a GE?

No I mean people, supposedly of a left bent, urging Labour mps to vote yes to May's bill on Dec 14th.

 

[andysays]

Unless you live abroad, you are in the boat that is in jeopardy.

This isn't simply a Conservative party matter, it affects us all. If there is no deal, then for the foreseeable, we're fucked. It takes time to set up trading relations with other countries.

There is also the problem with the financial services industry, which is a huge tax payer, and would up sticks and move to Frankfurt.

We are all in this boat, and I would rather it didn't sink. I can appreciate that you are enjoying the discomfiture of the Conservative party, I think we all are to an extent, but not to the point where we crash out of the EU.

I don't accept your analogy. We are most definitely not all in the same boat, or if we are, most of us are in the position of galley slaves whose interests would best be served by rising up, throwing the ship's officers overboard and then scuttling the ship rather than continuing on our current course.

And that includes you, whether you recognise it or not.