Is Brexit actually going to happen?

[Sasaferrato]

yeh about 30 years down the line.

Well, better that than what is happening.

 

[SpackleFrog]

she is right on a lot though: labour policy right now is
-vote down the deal
-call for an election (far from certain to happen, but its the motivating rally call)
- give false hope about a Labour renegotiation (which appears to be off the table in terms of time/A50/EU will, and even if it did happen would lead to an even softer brexit than the one on the table so far)

...Labours successful voting down the deal will more than likely NOT lead to a crash out Brexit, otherwise the Labour front bench wouldn't be pushing for it. Most likely it will lead to a second referendum and a stay in result. To my mind Labour policy right now, if they successfully vote down the deal, is leading to either No Brexit or a softer Brexit than currently on the table.

Very curious what conviction-Lexiters would rather at this stage:
1. that May's deal goes through, 2. a some-what mythical, softer, EU-tied Labour-negotiated Brexit, or 3. No Brexit at all. That would appear to be the options as it looks like the crash out Tories are a busted flush, and though crash out is still technically possible there would be too much cross-party agreement in the commons to stop it happening.

Not a Lexiter. Hate that term! Coined by remain voting Owen Jones and suggests being out of the EU will somehow make the struggle for socialism easier.

Having said that, if you want to know what I think, I think getting an anti austerity Corbyn-led govt to power is more important than Brexit. If it's a left wing govt worth having it'll come into conflict with the EU soon enough.

That doesn't mean you can just say forget Brexit though - Corbyn needs to be able to put forward something that could legitimately be called Brexit and which is compatible with his program.

If you're talking about what I'd like to see, Id like to see Corbyn make the Socialist case against the EU and talk about a program of nationalisation of banks and big business, which is the only way of making 'no deal' work if it came to it and is also the only thing that might concievably get concessions on anything from the EU but that won't happen.

My fondest hope at this point is that he withdraws the whip from Labour MP's who vote to prop up May right at this moment if I'm honest.

 

[andysays]

I agree with you 100% that this shit is the fault of the Conservatives, specifically Cameron.

The trouble is though, the eventual outcome doesn't just affect the Conservatives, it affects everyone.

May's repeated mantra that there will not be a second referendum is not helpful. She's like a rabbit in the headlights, unable to function and have a look at this.

It must be argued that if the outcome of a vote begins to show that the consequences are not those initially envisaged, common sense decrees that a second vote may be mandated as a result of new information. We do this in everyday life, something doesn't turn out as we expect, so we change tack.

These are EXACTLY the sort of consequences I was hoping for when I voted to leave, though I'll admit they appear to be actually exceeding my expectations of how much the Tories would fuck themselves up.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Have to say I suspect that the word "eventually" is doing a lot of work in this sentence.In some quarters people already feel that they have waited patiently for something to follow from their 2016 leave vote.If they now find that they were in fact waiting for nothing to happen they will be incandescent with a possibility of violence.Or so I think.

You could be right, but we don't have a huge history of violence on the streets by 'the ordinary man'.

Every poll shows a wish to remain, with a decent margin. I suspect that there are a fair number of people who didn't bother to vote, because leaving was unlikely, who would vote to remain now.

 

[Sasaferrato]

These are EXACTLY the sort of consequences I was hoping for when I voted to leave, though I'll admit they appear to be actually exceeding my expectations of how much the Tories would fuck themselves up.

So you favour knocking a hole in the bottom of the boat carrying you across a deep lake?

 

[Sasaferrato]

Not a Lexiter. Hate that term! Coined by remain voting Owen Jones and suggests being out of the EU will somehow make the struggle for socialism easier.

Having said that, if you want to know what I think, I think getting an anti austerity Corbyn-led govt to power is more important than Brexit. If it's a left wing govt worth having it'll come into conflict with the EU soon enough.

That doesn't mean you can just say forget Brexit though - Corbyn needs to be able to put forward something that could legitimately be called Brexit and which is compatible with his program.

If you're talking about what I'd like to see, Id like to see Corbyn make the Socialist case against the EU and talk about a program of nationalisation of banks and big business, which is the only way of making 'no deal' work if it came to it and is also the only thing that might concievably get concessions on anything from the EU but that won't happen.

My fondest hope at this point is that he withdraws the whip from Labour MP's who vote to prop up May right at this moment if I'm honest.

How old are you?

 

[rubbershoes]

If the deal is voted down, May will resign. I can't see how any new tory leader could not call an immediate general election in that circumstance. And in any case, labour mps should be happy that the government is in chaos, not bemoaning the fact. Good grief. You're there to oppose ffs. And again, if you want to play the democracy card, you were elected by your voters to oppose. If this deal gets through because of the support of labour mps, that will be a betrayal of democracy.

Labour is just as divided as the tories on brexit. If labour won a general election, it would be their turn for a public civil war

 

[danny la rouge]

Anyone seen a concise, trustworthy analysis of the 500 page document?

 

[TopCat]

Anyone seen a concise, trustworthy analysis of the 500 page document?

Hohoho

 

[Sasaferrato]

Anyone seen a concise, trustworthy analysis of the 500 page document?

Nope, and I'm not reading it.

 

[danny la rouge]

Hohoho

Anyone other than Santa?

 

[Sasaferrato]

As this is discussed, round and round, a second referendum is slowly looking possible.

 

[TopCat]

If as I expect we get a confidence vote announcement next week, it's going to be popcorn time for the run up.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Labour is just as divided as the tories on brexit. If labour won a general election, it would be their turn for a public civil war

I don't think that's true at all. Europe has been a festering issue for the tories for decades in a way that it really isn't for labour. For the hardcore ERG tories, it is the defining political issue, and has been for a long time. Labour is divided (the PLP at least) over Corbyn, so much so that some labour mps would rather a continuation of tory rule over a Corbyn government.

 

[TopCat]

When's the parliament vote? Early December no?

 

[TopCat]

Idiot on the news talking about the historic opportunity for Labour to act in the national interest.

 

[DotCommunist]

Idiot on the news talking about the historic opportunity for Labour to act in the national interest.

last time that happened we got the work camps

 

[redsquirrel]

Idiot on the news talking about the historic opportunity for Labour to act in the national interest.

Red idiot or blue idiot?

 

[TopCat]

Red idiot or blue idiot?

I don't who it was. Rolling bbc news. I could not tell for sure if red or blue Tory. I guess at blue Tory.

 

[SpookyFrank]

When's the parliament vote? Early December no?

The entire EU has to agree to it before then.

 

[andysays]

So you favour knocking a hole in the bottom of the boat carrying you across a deep lake?

You might need to explain what the various items in this picture are intended to represent if you want me to answer your question...

 

[TopCat]

That's due on the 21st November I recollect.

 

[TopCat]

There is some summit with Trump and Putin in this period too.

 

[SpackleFrog]

How old are you?

How much of a prick are you?

 

[ska invita]

I think she's wrong on pretty much every point, and disingenuously so. It is not the opposition's responsibility to ensure that key government business passes through the Commons. And she is translating 'we must honour the referendum result' into 'we must vote through whichever rubbish we are presented with'. That's bonkers. No, this is a tory brexit, engineered by the tories, and done by the tories (although labour must be regretting voting in favour of a referendum now - big mistake that). It's up to the tories to vote it through if that's what they want, and if the tories wish to present their deal as the only option, the opposition should call bullshit. Whatever your position, it is not 'honouring the referendum' to vote through this deal just because it's the only deal on offer. If you're playing the democracy card, that is anti-democratic and an abdication of the 'duty' of elected representatives to scrutinise legislation, because no deal of any kind was presented for consideration at the referendum - this has all been worked out since then.

If the deal is voted down, May will resign. I can't see how any new tory leader could not call an immediate general election in that circumstance. And in any case, labour mps should be happy that the government is in chaos, not bemoaning the fact. Good grief. You're there to oppose ffs. And again, if you want to play the democracy card, you were elected by your voters to oppose. If this deal gets through because of the support of labour mps, that will be a betrayal of democracy.

Brexit is not just "key government business", its the result of a national referendum, which puts the onus on all parties to engage, and which up until now Labour have acknowledged must happen and actively voted to make happen. And their job is not just to oppose blindly...they said repeatedly they would support the deal presented if it matched the 6 tests. This deal could pass their vague 6 tests, if they wanted it to, but lets say it objectively doesn't for sake of argument and leave that aside.

I'd be more comfortable supporting the current Labour (op)position if they openly said what they would do and how they would achieve it. "we must have an election" just doesn't cut it - its meaningless and ignoring several realities (including that they could lose the election!). I'm getting pretty sick of their vagueness on Brexit tbh. Having to do a speculative logic puzzle to try and work out their course of action. Which as I say by my workings would lead to a small chance of an even softer brexit or much more likely 2nd ref, which most likely will mean staying in the EU. Not that they're openly saying that but that has to be the conclusion. If thats wrong please say what else it could be. I'm done deciphering them.

I think getting an anti austerity Corbyn-led govt to power is more important than Brexit. If it's a left wing govt worth having it'll come into conflict with the EU soon enough.That doesn't mean you can just say forget Brexit though - Corbyn needs to be able to put forward something that could legitimately be called Brexit and which is compatible with his program.

exactly, but what is Corbyn putting forward? He's pretty shtum on it. See points above.

Ultimately its not like any of us have any real power over any of this - its theatre and out of our hands. But this is meant to be a representative democracy, and parties have a duty to be representative and transparent about their position and plans, especially so at a time when they're calling for an election.

Labours "keep vague and let the tories fuck it up" policy has run out of road at the juncture of the upcoming vote, and the vote also means what positively happens after the vote. At least say what would they would like to happen after the vote against. In the absence of that I can see why some Labour MPs might vote for the deal - at least it will be a brexit. Fuck only knows what voting against it is voting For - its not illogical to conclude it will most likely mean staying in the EU. Until Labour front bench make it clear thats the reasoning people are forced to go through.

*its the weekend, time to get a life >>>> ttfn

 

[belboid]

That's due on the 21st November I recollect.

25th for the EU summit, parliamentary debate 5 days from December 10th

 

[Pickman's model]

last time that happened we got the work camps

this time the work camps will be for the mps

 

[TopCat]

25th for the EU summit, parliamentary debate 5 days from December 10th

Thanks.
It's some timetable.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Brexit is not just "key government business", its the result of a national referendum, which puts the onus on all parties to engage, and which up until now Labour have acknowledged must happen and actively voted to make happen. And their job is not just to oppose blindly...they said repeatedly they would support the deal presented if it matched the 6 tests. This deal could pass their vague 6 tests, if they wanted it to, but lets say it objectively doesn't for sake of argument and leave that aside.

I'd be more comfortable supporting the current Labour (op)position if they openly said what they would do and how they would achieve it. "we must have an election" just doesn't cut it - its meaningless and ignoring several realities (including that they could lose the election!). I'm getting pretty sick of their vagueness on Brexit tbh. Having to do a speculative logic puzzle to try and work out their course of action. Which as I say by my workings would lead to a small chance of an even softer brexit or much more likely 2nd ref, which most likely will mean staying in the EU. Not that they're openly saying that but that has to be the conclusion. If thats wrong please say what else it could be. I'm done deciphering them.


exactly, but what is Corbyn putting forward? He's pretty shtum on it. See points above.

Ultimately its not like any of us have any real power over any of this - its theatre and out of our hands. But this is meant to be a representative democracy, and parties have a duty to be representative and transparent about their position and plans, especially so at a time when they're calling for an election.

Labours "keep vague and let the tories fuck it up" policy has run out of road at the juncture of the upcoming vote, and the vote also means what positively happens after the vote. At least say what would they would like to happen after the vote against. In the absence of that I can see why some Labour MPs might vote for the deal - at least it will be a brexit. Fuck only knows what voting against it is voting For - its not illogical to conclude it will most likely mean staying in the EU. Until Labour front bench make it clear thats the reasoning people are forced to go through.

*its the weekend, time to get a life >>>> ttfn

I agree with a lot of this but it's not out of our hands. The unions should be mobilising, demanding a GE and putting demands on Corbyn. The Remoaners have been clear about what they want from Corbyn, the Labour movement must do the same.

 

[TopCat]

So the 15th Dec then for the parliament vote?